XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Jan 06 0242 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
30 December - 05 January 2025

Solar activity reached R1 (Minor) levels on 30 Dec - 05 Jan, R2
(Moderate) levels on 30 Dec and 03-04 Jan and R3 (Strong) levels on
30 Dec and 03-04 Jan. During this highlight period, a total of 41
C-class, 34 M-class and 5 X-class flares were observed. Region 3936
(N14, L=144, class/area Ekc/400 on 26 Dec) contributed the first
X-class (R3-Strong) flare with an X1.5/2n at 30 Dec/0414 UTC.
Shortly after, Region 3932 (S17, L=155, class/area Fkc/480 on 23
Dec) contributed an X1.1/1n flare at 30 Dec/0431 UTC. This event
also had a 430 sfu Tenflare associated with it. R1 (Minor) flares
were observed on 31 Dec and 01-02 Jan from Regions 3932, 3936 and
3939 (S17, L=084, class/area Dac/130 on 31 Dec).

Activity picked up on 03 Jan with R1 (Minor), R2 (Moderate) and R3
(Strong) flare activity observed from new Region 3947 (N10, L=342,
class/area Dkc/310 on 04 Jan). The largest event observed during
this time was an X1.8 flare at 04/1248 UTC. Associated with this
flare was a Type II Sweep with an estimated velocity of 314 km/s. On
04 Jan/1915 UTC, Region 3939 produced a long-duration C7.6 flare
with a western CME modelled as a possible glancing blow hit at Earth
on 06 Jan. R1 (Minor) activity predominated on 05 Jan from Region
3947.

A 10 MeV proton event was observed at geosynchronous orbit beginning
at 04/2235 UTC, peaked at 20 pfu at 05/0055 UTC and ended at 05/0940
UTC. This event was associated with the long-duration C7.6 flare
observed on 04 Jan.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. However, the greater than 2 MeV electron
flux briefly reached high levels of 1,070 pfu at 05/1950 UTC, but
was not sustained long enough to warrant a SWPC electron flux alert.

Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels on 30 Dec. 31
Dec - 02 Jan saw increased activity levels due to effects from an
Earth-bound, 29 Dec CME. Active levels were observed during the last
half of 31 Dec and early on 01 Jan. Levels increased to G1 (Minor),
G2 (Moderate), G3 (Strong) and G4 (Severe) throughout 01 Jan.
Activity levels decreased to unsettled to G1 (Minor) levels on 02
Jan as CME effects lessened. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed
on 03 Jan. On 04 Jan, CME effects from a filament liftoff observed
early on 01 Jan, coupled with positive polarity CH HSS influence,
were observed. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) levels were observed.
Unsettled to active levels were observed on 05 Jan due to positive
polarity CH HSS effects.

Solar wind began the period at about 325 km/s, increased to 500 km/s
on 01-02 Jan, decreased to about 400 km/s late on 03 Jan, increased
again to about 680 km/s on 05 Jan and ended the period near 500
km/s. Bt values peaked late on 31 Dec to 27 nT while Bz values
reached -22 nT midday on 01 Jan.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
06 January - 01 February 2025

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) levels, with a chance for isolated R3 (Strong)
levels due to potential flare activity from numerous active regions.

There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event reaching
the S1 (Minor) level during the outlook period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach R1 (Minor) levels on
06 Jan due to likely CME effects. Unsettled to active levels are
likely on 07-08 Jan, 11-12 Jan, 16-20 Jan and 31 Jan-01 Feb due to
CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions are likely on 09-10 Jan,
13-15 Jan and 21-30 Jan.

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