XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Dec 30 0237 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
23 - 29 December 2024

Solar activity reached R1 (Minor) levels on 23-29 Dec, R2 (Moderate)
levels on 23, 26 and 29 Dec and R3 (Strong) levels on 29 Dec. During
this highlight period, a total of 33 C-class, 41 M-class and 1
X-class flares were observed. Region 3932 (S17, L=155, class/area
Fkc/480 on 23 Dec) contributed to 5 C-class and 10 M-class flares
early in the highlight period on 23-24 Dec. The largest flare
observed from Region 3932 was an M8.9 (R2-Moderate) event at 23/1112
UTC with a 732 km/s Type II and a 320 sfu Tenflare. Weak M-class
activity was observed on 25 Dec from Region 3938 (N21, L=103,
class/area Eac/210 on 26 Dec). At 26/0315 UTC, Region 3938 observed
an M7.3/2b (R2-Moderate) flare. Weak M-class activity was observed
on 27-28 Dec from Regions 3928 (S14, L=177, class/area Dkc/280 on 25
Dec), 3932, 3933 (S08, L=175, class/area Ekc/350 on 24 Dec) and
3938.

Activity picked up tremendously on 29 Dec with a total of 21 M-class
flares and 1 X-class flare. Region 3936 (N14, L=144, class/area
Ekc/400 on 26 Dec) produced 12 M-class flares on the 29th, including
an M7.1 at 29/1509 and the largest event of the highlight period, an
X1.1 flare at 29/0718 UTC. Region 3939 (S17, L=083, class/area
Dso/120 on 29 Dec) produced an M2.0/Sf flare at 29/0430 UTC that
resulted in an asymmetric, partial-halo CME with an Earth-directed
component. Later on the 29th, this region produced an M3.3/1b flare
at 29/1708 that resulted in another partial-halo CME. Analysis of a
potential Earth-directed component was in progress at the time of
this writing.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 23 Dec with a peak flux of 1,540 pfu observed at
23/1725 UTC. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 24-29 Dec.

Geomagnetic field activity reached unsettled to active levels on
23-24 Dec due to negative polarity CH HSS influence and weak CME
effects. Quiet levels predominated on 25-29 Dec. Solar wind began
the period on 23 Dec enhanced with wind speeds in the 600-675 km/s
range, Bt at 10 nT and Bz at about -4 nT. Enhanced field conditions
persisted on 24 Dec. From 25-29 Dec, field conditions approached
nominal levels where wind speeds decayed to 300-400 km/s and Bt and
Bz levels were at nominal levels.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
30 December - 25 January 2025

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) levels, with a chance for isolated R3 (Strong)
levels due to potential flare activity from numerous active regions.

There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event reaching
the S1 (Minor) level during the outlook period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high
levels on 01-04 Jan due to CME influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G3 (Strong) levels
on 31 Dec and G1 (Minor) levels on 01 Jan due to CME influence.
Unsettled to isolated active level are likely on 05-06 Jan, 10-12
Jan and 16-20 Jan due to CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet levels are
likely on 30 Dec, 02-04 Jan, 07-09 Jan, 13-15 Jan and 21-25 Jan.

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