XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Nov 04 0230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
28 October - 03 November 2024

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels with R1 (Minor) radio
blackouts observed on 28 Oct - 03 Nov, R2 (Moderate) radio blackouts
observed on 30 Oct and R3 (Strong) radio blackouts observed on 31
Oct. Regions 3869 (S17, L=195, class/area Eki/460 on 24 Oct), 3876
(S05, L=207, class/area Ekc/340 on 30 Oct) and 3878 (N16, L=138,
class/area Eki/400 on 31 Oct) produced a majority of the activity
this period. Region 3878 produced an R2 (Moderate) M7.2 flare at 30
Oct/2054 UTC and produced the largest flare of the period, an R3
(Strong) X2.0/3b flare at 31 Oct/2120 UTC with an associated 910 sfu
Tenflare. During the period, a total of 41 C-class, 20 M-class and 1
X-class flares were observed.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux began the period at S1-S2
(Minor-Moderate) flux levels due to X-class activity on 24 and 26
Oct. The proton event began at 26 Oct/1919 UTC, reached a maximum at
28 Oct/1350 UTC with a peak of 364 pfu and ended at 01 Nov/0735 UTC.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels through the highlight period.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels, with
one (R1-Minor) minor storm period observed early on 28 Oct. Quiet to
minor storm levels were observed on 28 Oct with quiet to active
levels observed on 29-30 Oct. This activity was due to weak CME
influence from significant flare activity observed on 24 and 26 Oct.
Quiet to isolated active periods were observed on 31 Oct to 03 Nov.
On 28 Oct, a Sudden Impulse was observed early on 28 Oct, due to CME
arrival from 26 Oct activity. Total field increased to 24 nT and the
Bz component dropped to -19 nT. Wind speeds increased to 616 km/s.
By 29 Oct, solar wind paraameters gradually declined to more nominal
levels and remained mostly nominal for the remainder of the
highlight period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
04 November - 30 November 2024

Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels
(R1/R2-Minor/Moderate), with a chance for high levels (R3-Strong)
from 04-30 Nov. The disk is expected to feature numerous complex
regions throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. However,
there is a chance for proton activity following significant solar
flare activity during the outlook period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
periods on 04-05 Nov due to weak CME influence, coupled with
positive polarity CH HSS activity. Unsettled to active levels are
likely on 11-13 Nov, 15-16 Nov, 18 Nov, 20 Nov, 15-27 Nov and 30
Nov, all due to influence from recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of
the outlook period is expected to be at mostly quiet levels.

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