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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 21 - 27 October 20

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Oct 28 13:00:09 2024
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2024 Oct 28 0319 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    21 - 27 October 2024

    Solar activity ranged from low to high. High levels were reached on
    24 Oct, with the largest event of the reporting period, an X3.3
    (R3-Strong) at 24/0357 UTC from Region 3869 (S17, L=195, class/area
    = Eki/460 on 24 Oct). Associated with this event were Type II and
    Type IV radio sweeps, a 10cm flare, and a partial halo CME. High
    levels were again reached on 26 Oct due to an X1.8 (R3) at 26/0719,
    from Region 3873 (S10, L=176, class/area = Dai/240 on 24 Oct), also
    with associated Type II, Type IV, 10cm flare, and partial halo CME.
    The associated CME was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at
    26/0636. The event was modeled and analyzed, with output suggests
    potential arrival at Earth early on 28 Oct. Solar activity was
    moderate on 25 Oct, with a M1.1 (R1-Minor) at 25/0733 UTC, also from
    Region 3873, and on 27 Oct, with a M2.8 (R1) at 27/2324 UTC from
    Region 3878 (N18, L=141, class/area = Dso/80 on 27 Oct). The
    remainder of the summary period was at low levels.

    Other activity included Region 3878 which rotated onto the visible
    disk on 27 Oct, but there were three M-flares on 26 Oct that
    appeared to occur in the vicinity of the region behind the limb.
    There is a large complex of sunspot regions in the south-east
    quadrant, including Regions 3869--3876, with flux emergence muddling
    the boundaries between individual regions.

    The greater than 10 MeV protons flux increased above background
    level following R3 flare activity on 24 Oct. The S1 (Minor)
    threshold was reached on 26 Oct at 1910 UTC following another R3
    event from Region 3873. They further increased to S2 (Moderate)
    threshold at 27/0850 UTC. Flux remained elevated above the S2
    threshold for the remainder of the reporting period.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
    normal background to moderate levels throughout the reporting
    period.

    Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active conditions.
    Active periods were observed on 24 Oct, due to influence from a
    positive CH with a possibly embedded transient, and on 26 Oct, due
    to influence from the CME associated with the X3.3 flare from Region
    3869 on Oct 24. On 26 Oct, Bz was primarily northward but the total
    magnetic field reached 26 nT with wind speeds around 450-500 km/s.
    The remainder of the reporting period was at quiet to unsettled
    levels.



    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    28 October - 23 November 2024

    Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels
    (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate), with the chance of high levels (R3-Strong),
    from 28 Oct to 6 Nov, as the southern complex of active regions
    rotates westward. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to
    reach moderate levels.

    The greater than 10 MeV protons are expected to remain elevated at
    S2 through 28 Oct and S1 on 29 Oct, with the chance of additional
    events following activity from the southern spot complex as it
    rotates off the disk. No other proton events are expected at
    geosynchronous orbit in the remainder of the outlook period.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to be background to high levels due to potential passage of
    the CME associated with the X1.8 (R3) on 26 Oct.

    Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G2 (Moderate) storm
    levels on 28 Oct and G1 (Minor) storm levels on 29 Oct due to
    anticipated influence of a CME that left the Sun on 26 Oct. Active
    levels are likely on 11-12 Nov, 15 Nov, and 20 Nov due to influence
    from recurrent CH HSSs, with Unsettled levels on 13 Nov, 16 Nov, and
    18 Nov as the influences wane. The remainder of the outlook period
    is expected to be at mostly quiet levels.

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