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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 14 - 20 October 20

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Oct 21 13:00:15 2024
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2024 Oct 21 0157 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
    # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
    #
    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    14 - 20 October 2024

    Solar activity reached moderate levels (R1-Minor) on 14-28 Oct. High
    levels were reached on 19 Oct with the largest event of the
    reporting period, an M6.5 flare (R2-Moderate) at 19/0656 UTC from
    Region 3854 (S05, L=045, class/area=Eki/340 on 15 Oct) as it rotated
    around the W limb. Associated with this event was a Type II radio
    sweep. After the departure of Region 3854 from the visible disk,
    solar activity decreased to low levels.

    Other activity included an M2.1/Sn (R1) flare at 15/1833 UTC from
    Region 3854. Associated with the event was a Type II radio sweep. A
    subsequent CME was observed with the potential for the periphery to
    pass by Earth around 18-19 Oct. Around the same time, an additional
    Type II and Type IV radio sweep was observed but was associated with
    activity from Region 3848 (S07, L=091, class/area=Dki/310 on 08 Oct)
    which had already rotated to the Sun's farside. No other CMEs in
    available coronagraph imagery were determined to be Earth-directed.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
    normal background to moderate levels throughout the reporting
    period.

    Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor)
    geomagnetic storm levels. G1 storm levels were reached early on 19
    Oct during the onset of positive polarity CH HSS, with a possible
    embedded transient influence from a weak CME that left the Sun on 15
    Oct. Active levels were observed on 14 Oct and 18 Oct. The remainder
    of the reporting period was at quiet to unsettled levels.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    21 October - 16 November 2024

    Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
    moderate levels (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) throughout the outlook
    period.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to be background to moderate levels.

    Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach active levels on 21
    Oct, 11-12 Nov, and 15 Nov. Unsettled levels are likely on 23-24
    Oct, 13 Nov, and 16 Nov. All increases in geomagnetic activity are
    due to anticipated, recurrent CH HSSs. To remainder of the outlook
    period is expected to be at mostly quiet levels.

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