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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 07 - 13 October 20

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Oct 14 13:00:09 2024
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2024 Oct 14 0247 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    07 - 13 October 2024

    Solar activity reached high levels on 07 and 09 Oct. An X2.1/2b
    flare was observed on 07/1902 UTC from Region 3842 (S15, L=180, class/area=Eki/730). On 08 Oct 2 X-class flares were observed. An
    X1.8 flare was observed at 09/0156 UTC from Region 3848 (N12, L=116, class/area=Dki/600). This event was accompanied by Type II (5176
    km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps as well as a 2700 sfu Tenflare and
    Castelli U signature. The associated Halo CME is Earth directed and
    early model runs suggest arrival mid to late day 10 Oct. An
    additional X1.4/1N flare was observed from Region 3842 at 09/1545
    UTC. Numerous M-class flares were observed during the period with
    moderate levels being reached on 08, 10, and 11 Oct. Low levels were
    observed on 12-13 Oct.

    The 10 MeV proton flux reached S3 (Strong) radiation storm levels on
    09-10 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux exceeded the 1000 pfu
    threshold reaching S3 (Strong) levels starting at 09/1240 UTC, with
    a peak of 1810 pfu at 10/1515 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV proton
    flux was also above the alert threshold of 1 pfu beginning at
    09/0350 UTC, with a peak of 3 pfu at 09/0805 UTC.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
    low to moderate levels for the summary period.

    Geomagnetic field activity was at G3 (Strong) levels on 08 Oct due
    to CME influences. Solar wind parameters have remained elevated
    since CME arrival 06 Oct. Total field has been been between 2 to 17
    nT with the Bz component dropping as low as -16 nT. The Bz component
    has remained largely in the southward orientation since 07/1411 UTC.
    Solar wind speeds have remained around 450 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly negative (towards the Sun) but as of 07/1916 UTC has
    flipped to positive (away from the Sun).The greater than 2 MeV
    electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low to moderate levels
    for the summary period.

    G4 (Severe) levels were observed on 10-11 Oct due to influences from
    a halo CME that left the Sun early on 09 Oct. Solar wind parameters,
    as measured by ACE, all showed abrupt jumps in value consistent with
    an interplanetary shock, which was interpreted as the arrival of the
    halo CME from 9 Oct associated with an X1.8 flare. Total magnetic
    field, Bt, had an average of 36 nT throughout, with a maximum of 46
    nT reached at 10/2159 UTC. The north-south component of the magnetic
    field, Bz, varied between north (positive) and south (negative)
    values. It reached a maximum southward value of -46 nT at 10/2200
    UTC, with several sustained periods of -20 nT. With the arrival of
    the CME, the wind speed increased from a background of 400 km/s to
    815 km/s, and then sustained speeds around 750 km/s for the
    remainder of the period. Before the CME, the phi angle was
    predominantly positive (away from the Sun), and then varied after
    the arrival.

    The remainder of the period saw G2 (Moderate) levels on 07 Oct, and
    G1 (Minor) levels on 09 and 12 Oct. All due to lingering CME
    influences.



    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    14 October - 09 November 2024

    Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels, with isolated
    days of high levels throughout the period.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to be at nomal to high levels throughout the outlook
    period.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 (Minor) storm
    levels on 16 Oct with a glancing blow from a CME that left the Sun
    on 12 Oct. Active levels on 22 and 26 Oct due to CH HSS influences.
    Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on the remaining days in the
    outlook period.

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