XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Oct 07 0340 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
30 September - 06 October 2024

Solar activity reached high levels on all seven days (30 Sep - 06
Oct). There were a total of 30 R1 (Minor) flares, two R2 (Moderate)
flares, and two R3 (Strong) flares. Region 3842 (S15, L=178,
class/area Ekc/1150 on 04 Oct) produced the largest flare of the
week, an X9.0 flare at 03/1218 UTC. This event had a Castelli-U
signature, as well as Type II (est speed 582 km/s) and Type IV radio
sweeps. Region 3842 also produced an X7.1/2b flare at 01/2220 UTC
that had a Castelli-U radio signature and a Type II radio sweep (est
speed 1246 km/s) associated with it. Additionally, Region 3842
contributed an M7.7/2n event on 30 Sep that peaked at 2359 UTC.
Region 3843 (S09, L=211, class/area Eko/290 on 04 Oct) added the
other R2 event, an M6.7/2b flare, at 03/2028 UTC. This event had a
Type II (est speed 1241 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps associated
with it. The X7.1, X9.0, and M6.7 flares all had associated
Earth-directed CMEs that were expected to impact Earth between 04-06
Oct.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels on all seven days (30 Sep - 06 Oct).

Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels on 30 Sep as
negative polarity CH HSS influence persisted. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storm levels were observed on 06 Oct following the likely arrival of
one of several CMEs anticipated to impact earth.





Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
07 October - 02 November 2024

Solar activity is expected to range from low to moderate levels,
with a slight chance for high levels. R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events
are likely, with a slight chance for R3 or greater events,
throughout the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring
significant flare activity.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels on 07-08 Oct following the anticipated
CME passages. Normal to moderate levels are likely to return after
09 Oct.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G2 (Moderate) storm
levels on 07 Oct as CME influences persist. Unsettled to active
levels are likely on 08, 22, 23 Oct due to anticipated positive
polarity CH HSS influence and on 12, 26, and 27 Oct due to
anticipated negative polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled
levels are otherwise expected, barring any additional CME activity.

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