XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Sep 09 0157 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
02 - 08 September 2024

Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels. Low levels were
observed on 06 Sep and moderate (R1-Minor) levels were observed on
02-05 Sep and 07-08 Sep. The strongest event of the reporting period
was an M3.3 flare at 02/1602 UTC from Region 3813 (S24, L=149,
class/area Fki/490 on 06 Sep). This region produced numerous M-class
flares this period. R1-Minor flare activity was also produced from
Regions 3806 (S11, L=212, class/area Ekc/480 on 31 Aug), 3807 (S16,
L=264, class/area Eki/580 on 02 Sep) and 3815 (S28, L=138,
class/area Eso/200 on 07 Sep).

A large CME was observed from a filament eruption, centered at
approximately N16W22, at about 08/0000 UTC. Analysis and modelling
of the subsequent CME suggested an Earth arrival by mid to late on
10 Sep.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. However,
proton flux levels became enhanced on 03-04 Sep, reaching a maximum
peak of 6.29 pfu at 03/1245 UTC. This flux increase was associated
with the long-duration M5.5 (R2-Moderate) flare observed from behind
the SE limb midday on 01 Sep.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels on 02-03 Sep and 05-08 Sep. High levels of 1,310 pfu
were reached at 04/1545 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Quiet
to isolated unsettled levels were observed on 02-03 Sep and 05-08
Sep. Unsettled to active levels were observed on 04 Sep when a 01
Sep CME shock arrived at Earth. Total field reached 24 nT with a
weak southward Bz signature. Solar wind speeds were at about 450
km/s during this arrival. Other than this activity, solar wind
parameters were at mostly background levels.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 September - 05 October 2024

Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for X-class events
(R3-Strong), throughout the outlook period. This is due to complex
regions on the visible disk, as well as the anticipated return of
complex regions.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels. Enhanced activity to G1-G2
(Minor-Moderate) levels are likely on 10-11 Sep due to anticipated
CME activity. Quiet to unsettled activity is expected on 09 Sep,
17-18 Sep, 28-29 Sep and 05 Oct, with G1 (Minor) levels likely on
26-27 Sep, all due to anticipated recurrent CH HSS occurence. Mostly
quiet levels are expected on 12-16 Sep, 19-25 Sep, 30 Sep and 01-04
Oct.

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