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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 19 - 25 August 202

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@21:1/5 to All on Mon Aug 26 13:00:10 2024
    XPost: rec.radio.amateur.space, rec.radio.shortwave, rec.radio.info

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2024 Aug 26 0150 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
    # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    19 - 25 August 2024

    Solar activity was at R1 (Minor) to R2 (Moderate) levels on 19-24
    Aug. A total of 18 R1 (Minor) flares were observed on 19-24 Aug from
    Regions 3785 (S15, L=107, class/area Dai/100 on 18 Aug), 3796 (S03,
    L=353, class/area Dki/380 on 23 Aug), 3800 (S27, L=331, class/area
    Eai/160 on 25 Aug) and 3801 (N07, L=300, class/area Cso/140 on 23
    Aug). A total of two R2 (Moderate) flares were observed from Regions
    3796 and 3800. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed from any of
    these flares. Region 3794 (S17, L=040, class/area Dai/240 on 20 Aug)
    produced a C5.9 flare at 23/0210 UTC. LASCO C2 imagery observed a
    CME off the W limb with a likely Earth-directed component. The
    periphery of the slow-moving ejecta is forecasted to brush by Earth
    late on 27 Aug to early on 28 Aug.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
    low to moderate levels.

    Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet to isolated unsettled
    levels. The solar wind field on 19-25 Aug was at mostly nominal
    levels for the period. Bz reached a maximum high of 11 nT early on
    23 Aug while the Bz component reached -10 nT during that same time.
    Wind speeds ranged from a high of 435 km/s to a low of 300 km/s. The
    phi orientation was mostly positive through the period.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    26 August - 21 September 2024

    Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels throughout the
    outlook period due to mulitple complex regions on the visible disk
    and regions anticipated to return.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to be at normal to moderate levels during the outlook
    period.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be mostly quiet. Unsettled
    to active conditions are possible on 27-28 Aug due to potential CME
    effects from the 23 Aug CME. Unsettled conditions are possible on
    17-18 Sep due to positive polarity coronal hole influence. Mostly
    quiet conditions are forecast for 26 Aug, 29-31 Aug, 01-16 Sep and
    19-21 Sep. The long-term forecast only contains recurrent solar wind
    features like CH HSSs and SSBCs. CMEs will be added as they occur.

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