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from https://www.newsweek.com/russia-set-lose-sole-mediterranean-base-warships-leave-port-1997514

Russia Set To Lose Sole Mediterranean Base As Warships Leave Port
Published Dec 09, 2024 at 8:29 AM EST
Updated Dec 09, 2024 at 9:24 AM EST

02:15
How Syria's Rebel Advance Unfolded
By Brendan Cole
Senior News Reporter
FOLLOW
8
Russia's military presence at the Syrian port that provided its
footprint in the Mediterranean is evaporating following the downfall of
Bashar al-Assad, it has been reported, dealing a strategic blow for
Vladimir Putin.

For more than five decades, Tartus had hosted a naval supply and
maintenance base for Moscow and, as its only Mediterranean fueling spot, enabled the Kremlin to project power on the southern flank of NATO near
Africa.

Military analysts said they saw the first signs Russia's withdrawal from
the port city on December 3, although Moscow insisted it was engaged in exercises, as rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham staged lightning
advances in Syria.

But on Sunday, as social media footage showed rebels reaching Tartus,
Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate reported Russia had "withdrawn
its warships" from the naval base and that the patrol ship Admiral
Grigorovich and the dry cargo ship Engineer Trubin of the Northern Fleet
had sailed.

Russian submarines
Russian submarines at its naval base in the Syrian Mediterranean port of
Tartus on September 26, 2019. Russia is reportedly trying to evacuate
military assets from Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad. MAXIME POPOV/Getty Images
Open-source intelligence analysts shared satellite imagery on Friday
which suggested that the frigate Admiral Gorshkov and the auxiliary
vessel Yelnya had likely headed home from the Mediterranean Sea.

Pro-Moscow military bloggers also reported on the withdrawal of Russian aircraft from the Khmeimim base in Syria's Latakia province in what the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said meant "major implications" for Moscow's military footprint.

"Russia's loss of the air base and the naval base in Syria is a
potentially a big strategic setback, compounding the humiliation of
being shown to be weak," Edward Lucas, senior fellow at the Center for
European Policy Analysis told Newsweek.

"They may able to retain something with the new regime, but the odds are they'll have to give up the only real Russian bases that are not
contiguous with Russia."

"To get to Syria, the Russian Navy has to go through the Black Sea and
through Turkey and through the Bosphorus," he said, "in terms of the Turkish-Russian relationship, Turkey is very much on the front foot now.
If Russia survives with a presence in Syria, it will be thanks to
[Turkish President Recep] Erdogan."

Newsweek has contacted the Kremlin via email for comment.

Pro-Russian military bloggers noted how rebels took control of the city
of Jebla, in Latakia, which is located three miles from the Khmeimim
Russian air base from where Moscow is looking to withdraw its aircraft
and personnel.

Satellite imagery from Saturday shows three Ilyushin Il-76 and one
Antonov An-124 military transport aircraft at the air base. Geolocated
footage a day earlier showed Russian forces transporting S-300 or S-400
and Tor-M1 air-defense systems near Baniyas, less than 20 miles south of
the Khmeimim base.

Read more Syria

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In its update Sunday, the ISW said the loss of Russia bases in Syria
will disrupt Moscow's logistics and resupply efforts and weaken its
operations in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa. Even if Moscow turned to
Libya or Sudan as alternatives, their lack of infrastructure and formal agreements "makes them inadequate substitutes."

Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali said the new authorities
would decide about the future of Moscow's military bases and the Russian Foreign Ministry insisted there was "no serious threat" to the safety of
the sites.

However, whether Putin can maintain a military presence in his former
ally could be out of his hands. "A lot will depend on what the new
regime is like and whether they want to curry favor with the Americans
and get over its jihadist extremist past," said Lucas.

"Chucking out the Russians would be a good way of making friends in
Washington.

"It's not impossible that Putin hangs on and he'll probably offer this
new regime a bit of support. He'll say, 'You're not talking to the
Iranians, maybe we can be of assistance to you.'"

"But because of Russia's military weakness, I don't think that there's
an awful lot that they can offer," Lucas added.

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