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from
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/07/27/world/us-ukraine-russia-plot/

A mysterious plot prompts a rare call from Russia to the Pentagon
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin testifies on Capitol Hill in
Washington in April. In July, Russia's defense minister said he needed
to talk to Austin about an alleged Ukrainian operation. What happened
next remains murky.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin testifies on Capitol Hill in
Washington in April. In July, Russia's defense minister said he needed
to talk to Austin about an alleged Ukrainian operation. What happened
next remains murky. | KENNY HOLSTON / THE NEW YORK TIMES
BY ERIC SCHMITT
THE NEW YORK TIMES
SHARE
Jul 27, 2024

WASHINGTON – Earlier this month, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin received
an unusual request from an unlikely caller: His Russian counterpart
wanted to talk.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Austin had spoken by
phone with Russia’s defense minister only five other times, almost
always at the Pentagon’s initiative and often in an effort to avoid miscalculations that could escalate the conflict.

In fact, Austin had reached out to Russia’s new defense minister, Andrei Belousov, just a couple of weeks earlier, on June 25, in an effort to
keep the "lines of communication open,” the Pentagon said. It was the
first phone call between the two men since Belousov, an economist,
replaced Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s long-running defense minister, in a
Kremlin shake-up in May.

Now, on July 12, Belousov was calling to relay a warning, according to
two U.S. officials and another official briefed on the call: The
Russians had detected a Ukrainian covert operation in the works against
Russia that they believed had the Americans’ blessing. Was the Pentagon
aware of the plot, Belousov asked Austin, and its potential to ratchet
up tensions between Moscow and Washington?

Pentagon officials were surprised by the allegation and unaware of any
such plot, the two U.S. officials said, speaking on the condition of
anonymity to discuss the confidential phone call. But whatever Belousov revealed, all three officials said, it was taken seriously enough that
the Americans contacted the Ukrainians and said, essentially, if you’re thinking about doing something like this, don’t.

Despite Ukraine’s deep dependence on the United States for military, intelligence and diplomatic support, Ukrainian officials are not always transparent with their American counterparts about their military
operations, especially those against Russian targets behind enemy lines.
These operations have frustrated U.S. officials, who believe that they
have not measurably improved Ukraine’s position on the battlefield but
have risked alienating European allies and widening the war.

Over the past two years, the operations that have unnerved the United
States included a strike on a Russian air base on the western coast of
Crimea, a truck bombing that destroyed part of the Kerch Strait Bridge,
which links Russia to Crimea, and drone strikes deep inside Russia.

President Vladimir Putin of Russia often refers to such strikes as
"terrorist attacks,” and the Kremlin uses them as evidence to back up Putin’s spurious claim that his invasion of Ukraine is really a
defensive war. Despite America’s denials, Russian officials insist
publicly that such strikes could not happen without U.S. approval and
support.

Whether the alleged Ukrainian plot this month was real and imminent is
still unclear, as is what form it might have taken. Pentagon and White
House officials say nothing has happened — yet. They have declined to describe the call in detail but stressed the need for dialogue among adversaries.

"During the call, the secretary emphasized the importance of maintaining
lines of communication amid Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine,”
Sabrina Singh, a Pentagon spokesperson, told reporters hours after the conversation July 12.

Pentagon officials declined to say if Austin brought up the matter in a
phone call Tuesday with his Ukrainian counterpart, Rustem Umerov.

A Russian Defense Ministry statement after the July 12 call confirmed
that Belousov initiated it, adding that "the issue of preventing
security threats and reducing the risk of possible escalation was
discussed.” But the statement made no mention of a suspected Ukrainian
covert mission.

Ukrainian officials declined to comment on the matter. The Kremlin also declined to comment for this article, and the Russian Defense Ministry
did not respond to a request for comment.

The rare glimpse behind the scenes of a sensitive call between defense ministers illustrates how much more there often is to private
conversations between American and Russian officials than what is
revealed to the public — and how the United States and Russia try to
manage escalation risks behind the scenes.

For instance, in the phone call last month between Austin and Belousov,
Austin "emphasized the importance of maintaining lines of communication
amid Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine,” said Maj. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary.

Austin initiated that call and "believes that keeping lines of
communication open are important,” Ryder said.

Austin and Belousov "exchanged views on the situation around Ukraine,”
the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement about the same call. It
added that Belousov "pointed to the danger of further escalation of the situation in connection with the continued supply of American weapons to
the Armed Forces of Ukraine.”

But two officials familiar with the call said Austin also warned his
Russian counterpart not to threaten U.S. troops in Europe amid rising
tensions in Ukraine.

About four days later, U.S. defense officials raised the security alert
level at military bases in Europe in response to vague threats from the
Kremlin over Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons on Russian territory.

U.S. officials said that no specific intelligence about possible Russian attacks on U.S. bases had been collected. Any such attack by Russia,
whether overt or covert, would be a significant escalation of its war in Ukraine.

Russia has stepped up acts of sabotage in Europe, hoping to disrupt the
flow of materiel to Ukraine. So far, no U.S. bases have been targeted in
those attacks, but U.S. officials said raising the alert level would
help ensure that service members were keeping watch.

Then there were the calls on Oct. 21 and Oct. 23, 2022, between Austin
and Shoigu — the first requested by the Americans, the second by the Russians.

The Pentagon’s summary of the second call stated, "Secretary Austin
rejected any pretext for Russian escalation and reaffirmed the value of continued communication amid Russia’s unlawful and unjustified war
against Ukraine.”

A week later, The New York Times reported that senior Russian military
leaders had recently discussed when and how Moscow might use a tactical
nuclear weapon in Ukraine, according to multiple senior American officials.

The new intelligence surfaced when Moscow was promoting the baseless
notion that Ukraine was planning to use a so-called dirty bomb — a conventional explosive laced with radioactive material.

President Vladimir Putin of Russia was not a part of the conversations
with his generals, which were held as Russia was intensifying nuclear
rhetoric and suffering battlefield setbacks.

But the fact that senior Russian military leaders were even having the discussions alarmed the Biden administration because it showed how
frustrated they were about their failures in Ukraine and suggested that Putin’s veiled threats to use nuclear weapons might not just be words.

While the risk of further escalation remained high, Biden administration officials and U.S. allies also said at the time that the phone calls
between Western and Russian counterparts in late October helped ease
some of the nuclear tensions.

"These calls are about avoiding worst-case outcomes in a relationship
that could potentially go over the edge,” said Samuel Charap, a Russia analyst at the Rand Corp.

This article originally appeared in The New York Times © 2024 The New
York Times Company

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