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from https://www.semafor.com/article/07/24/2024/more-than-10-of-cubas-population-have-fled-amid-a-severe-economic-downturn

Cuba witnesses mass exodus, result of ‘havoc and bad decisions’
Insights from Miami Herald, El País, Havana Times, and The Economist

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People wait in line to buy bread in downtown Havana, Cuba. Reuters

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More than 10% of Cuba’s population left the island between 2022 and
2023, in what experts described as “the largest migration wave in the country’s history.”

A severe economic downturn and the systematic quashing of dissent by the country’s authoritarian government have likely pushed more than one
million people, particularly younger Cubans, to flee, with most heading
to the US, Canada, and Mexico.

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SIGNALS
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Mass migration is the result of ‘havoc and bad decisions’
Source icon
Sources:
El País, Miami Herald

Cuba’s economy has been on a downward trajectory since 2019, El País
noted, even though the government began allowing the creation of private businesses for the first time in decades three years ago. A combination
of “havoc and bad decisions,” — harsh sanctions imposed during the Trump administration, the closed borders and lack of tourists during the
pandemic, the government’s failure to implement policies to address
shortages of food, medicines, and other basic products and increase
production; and scaled back aid from allies Venezuela and Russia — have
led to a sense of hopelessness among the public. Some have resorted to
selling everything, even their house, to buy a one-way ticket off the
island, the outlet added.

Lack of freedom drives mass exodus
Source icon
Sources:
Havana Times, Human Rights Watch

The stifling of individual freedoms by Cuba’s communist leadership is a
major contributor to the country’s mass exodus, independent Cuban outlet Havana Times argued. The country’s constitution criminalizes populist attempts to change the country’s political and economic situation, and
the country hasn’t held a free election in more than 60 years. By some measures, the state is also the main employer in the country, which
discourages even more people from expressing dissent to avoid losing
work. The government systematically punishes all forms of public
criticism, Human Rights Watch has found, which it has ramped up even
further in the wake of 2021 protests against the dire economic and
social consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Migrants face hardening stance abroad
Source icon
Source:
The Economist
In general, migrants increasingly experience tightening restrictions on
where they can live and work in Europe and North America, The Economist
noted, which “could prove immensely damaging to economies.” Measures to clamp down on immigration, particularly extreme policies like mass
deportation, could have both short- and long-term consequences for
Western economies, including increased inflation and worker shortages in crucial industries, like agriculture. In the US, though unlikely, a mass deportation of the kind Donald Trump proposes could cut GDP down by as
much as 12% over three years, the Peterson Institute for International Economics think tank has estimated.

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