• DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Predi

    From Mike Powell@CAPCITY2 to All on Mon Nov 25 10:01:00 2024
    ACUS48 KWNS 250938
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 250937

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0337 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

    Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    For the Thu/D4 to Fri/D5 period, an upper trough over the MS/OH/TN
    Valleys will continue to amplify, aided by a backside speed max
    moving from the northern Plains toward the OH Valley. Given the
    phasing aspect of this setup, models show appreciable variability
    with timing and location of the resulting large trough, and surface
    low position. However, the primary facet to severe potential will be
    the less-than-optimal warm sector which will exist ahead of the cold front.

    GFS members are slower with both the front and the upper trough as
    compared to ECWMF, which has the front offshore by Thu/D4 evening.
    In either case, strongly veering 850 mb winds and associated drying
    will impact severe potential. While predictability is currently low
    due to large model spread, potential does exist for scattered strong
    storms, primary over parts of AL and GA on Thursday. However, a
    faster model solution could result in minimal threat over land,
    except perhaps far eastern GA and the Carolinas. As such, trends
    will be monitored in coming days for potential risk areas.

    After this front moves offshore late Thursday, the remainder of the
    period will see a relatively cool and stable pattern, with strong
    northwest flow aloft persisting across the Plains, and periodic
    surges of high pressure.

    ..Jewell.. 11/25/2024

    $$
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