734
WTNT34 KNHC 141148
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
700 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 82.2W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen
was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 82.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This
motion should continue through today, taking the system across the
western Caribbean Sea. The depression is expected to stall and
meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and
continue strengthening, if it remains over water.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Depression Nineteen can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Depression Nineteen is
expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals
around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas
of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Nineteen, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?rainqpf#contents

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
and possible in the watch area beginning later today.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


$$
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