773
WTNT33 KNHC 062352
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
700 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS,
AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 83.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM N OF BAHIA HONDA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located
near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 83.2 West. Rafael is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general northwestward
motion is anticipated tonight. A slower west-northwestward to
westward motion is expected Friday through the weekend. On the
forecast track, Rafael is expected to move away from western Cuba
this evening, and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this
evening and tonight. Rafael is then forecast to move over the
southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (170 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rafael is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected during
the next day or so while Rafael moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km). Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are occurring
in squalls over the Lower and Middle Florida Keys, including a gust
of 66 mph (106 km/h) at the NOAA station at Sand Key.

The minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue in portions of
western Cuba for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle
Florida Keys through tonight.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across the Cayman Islands and
western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across
portions of western Cuba, with isolated higher totals up to 12
inches in areas of higher terrain. This will lead to areas of flash
flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands additional
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf .

STORM SURGE: Storm surge flooding along the coast of Cuba should
subside tonight.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over
the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the
western Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread
across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week
into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


$$
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