ACUS03 KWNS 170717
SWODY3
SPC AC 170717

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico and
perhaps portions of adjacent western Texas Saturday into Saturday
night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.

...Synopsis...
Inland of the North American Pacific coast, strong zonal flow will
prevail across much of Canada through this period. More amplified,
but generally much weaker, flow will prevail across the southern
mid- to subtropical latitudes. The latter regime is likely to
include a notable lingering mid-level low near the Four Corners.
Only a very slow eastward/northeast movement of this low is forecast
Saturday through Saturday night, mostly in response to perturbations
pivoting around its periphery.

Downstream of the low, models indicate that ridging will build
across the southeastern Great Plains and lower through middle
Mississippi Valley. In lower levels, cool surface ridging is
forecast to remain prominent from the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio
Valley vicinity into the northern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern
Gulf Coast.

Although surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies is
likely to continue to weaken, south/southeasterly low-level flow
will persist across the high plains into the higher terrain and
contribute to further moistening of Gulf origins, beneath broadly
cyclonic and diffluent mid/upper flow.

...Eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas...
With the mid-level cold core remaining generally confined to the
Colorado Plateau, lapse rates across and east of the Sangre de
Cristo and Sacramento Mountains, through much of eastern New Mexico,
may remain relatively weak on Saturday. This, coupled with further
weakening of the lee surface troughing, does not appear particularly
conducive to severe storm development. However, with some
additional boundary-layer moistening beneath at least modestly cool
mid-levels, CAPE may exceed 500 J/kg (and perhaps approach 1000
J/kg) by late Saturday afternoon, in the presence of continuing
favorable shear profiles for supercells. One short wave
perturbation pivoting around the southeastern periphery of the
mid-level low may enhance convective development near or shortly
after peak destabilization. However, there remains sizable spread
within the model output concerning this feature.

..Kerr.. 10/17/2024

$$
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ACUS03 KWNS 180723
SWODY3
SPC AC 180723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A stronger storm or two is possible in parts of the southern High
Plains, though severe weather potential continues to appear low.

...Synopsis...
The Four Corners upper low will be in the process of becoming an
open wave Sunday morning. The trough will eventually accelerate
eastward by Monday morning, but is not expected to eject into the
southern High Plains until mid/late evening Sunday. Continued
surface troughing into the southern High Plains will keep very
modest moisture influx into the region around the Ohio Valley
anticyclone. The Pacific front in New Mexico/Colorado will slowly
move eastward along with the upper trough.

...Northeast New Mexico into Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles Vicinity...
A narrow band of moisture will persist within the region on account
of the southeasterly surface winds. Cloud cover and some potential
for early-day precipitation is expected to keep temperatures rather
cool. The strongest forcing for ascent is not likely to arrive until
mid/late evening into the overnight. Temperatures aloft will be cold
enough to promote 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE, and deep-layer shear could
support some modest storm organization. Given the late timing of the
mid-level height falls and the cold front, potential for severe
weather appears low. Isolated strong gusts and small to marginally
severe hail are possible in the strongest storms.

..Wendt.. 10/18/2024

$$
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ACUS03 KWNS 250807
SWODY3
SPC AC 250807

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are most likely Wednesday night over parts of the
lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. A few strong
storms cannot be ruled out.

...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, an upper trough will develop from the Upper MS Valley
into the central Plains as an 80 kt 500 mb speed max moves across
northern TX and OK. Height falls with this system will spread over
much of the OH/TN Valleys and southeastern states, with the speed
max likely intensifying through 12Z Thursday.

At the surface, low pressure will move from OK toward the MO
Bootheel trough 00Z, then will gradually deepen into WV overnight. A
cold front will trail southwestward from the low, providing lift as
it interacts with a developing moist plume across the Gulf Coast
States.

...Sabine Valley into the TN Valley...
A warm front will be situated along the northern Gulf Coast
Wednesday morning, and will move north across much of LA during the
day. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will likely exist from southeast
TX across southern LA by 00Z. The air mass will likely remain capped
during the day, but scattered thunderstorms are forecast overnight
as the front continues east. Despite strengthening deep-layer shear
(with strongly veered 850 mb flow), the main mitigating factor will
be the relatively cool boundary layer and inversion near 700 mb.
This should preclude much activity away from the front, and reduce
severe potential overall. However, deepening of the moist boundary
layer overnight along the front, beneath strong westerly flow, could
result in a few strong storms producing damaging gusts.

Given these factors, will not introduce low severe probabilities
this outlook cycle.

..Jewell.. 11/25/2024

$$
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