ABNT20 KNHC 271146
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Helene, located inland over northeast Georgia and on recently
upgraded Hurricane Isaac, located over the central Subtropical
Atlantic Ocean.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located midway in between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser
Antilles continues to become better organized. This disturbance is
already producing gale-force winds. Environmental conditions are
conducive for further development and a tropical depression or storm
could form today while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is then forecast to
slow down and turn north-northwestward by this weekend. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western Caribbean:
An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea by
the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for slow development thereafter while the system moves
generally northwestward, potentially entering the Gulf of Mexico by
the end of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could form over the eastern tropical
Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development
thereafter while the system moves generally northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Rosado
---
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ABNT20 KNHC 281138
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Isaac, located several hundred miles east of the Azores, and on
Tropical Storm Joyce, located over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean. The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene, located inland over the Ohio River
Valley.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad and elongated area of low pressure, associated with a
tropical wave, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
near and to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle
part of next week while the system moves toward the west and then
northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea in
a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for additional development thereafter while the system moves
generally northwestward, and a tropical depression could form during
the middle to latter part of next week as the system enters the Gulf
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Joyce are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik
---
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ABNT20 KNHC 291153
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Isaac, located several hundred miles northwest of the Azores, and
on Tropical Storm Joyce, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands have become better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
early or middle part of this week while the system initially moves
westward and then northwestward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week
while the disturbance meanders towards the west-northwest. This
system is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of
Mexico during the latter portion of this week, and interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the coast of western Africa is
currently producing limited shower activity. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over the
eastern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Mahoney
---
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ABNT20 KNHC 301153
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Isaac, located several hundred miles north of the Azores, on
Tropical Depression Joyce, located over the central Atlantic Ocean,
and on Tropical Depression Twelve, located over the eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A large and disorganized area of low pressure located over the
western and southwestern Caribbean Sea is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions could become
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
form in a few days while the system is over the southern Gulf of
Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. While interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system, the timetable for
potential development has shifted later toward late week or this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
in a few days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Blake
---
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ABNT20 KNHC 011148
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form towards the end of
this week or this weekend while it moves generally northwestward
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next
couple of days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Mora
---
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ABNT20 KNHC 021134
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern
Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental
conditions could support some gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the broader disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the
U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for further development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so
while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
---
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ABNT20 KNHC 031135
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a surface trough. A broad area of low
pressure is likely to develop over the Gulf of Mexico late this
weekend or early next week, but subsequent tropical or subtropical
development could be limited by the system's potential interaction
with a frontal boundary. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days
and over portions of the Florida Peninsula next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Leslie are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Leslie
are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Beven
---
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ABNT20 KNHC 041130
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. A broad area
of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern or
south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and thereafter some
gradual development is possible while the low moves slowly eastward
or northeastward. A tropical or subtropical depression or storm
could form during the early to middle part of next week if the low
remains separate from a frontal boundary that is forecast to extend
across the Gulf of Mexico next week. Regardless of tropical or
subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over
portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the
Florida Peninsula late this weekend into next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
---
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ABNT20 KNHC 051122
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Hurricane Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

Gulf of Mexico (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are gradually
becoming better organized. Development of this system is expected,
and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today or
on Sunday while it moves slowly eastward over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. By early next week, the system is forecast to move
faster eastward or northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf
of Mexico where additional strengthening is likely. Interests on
the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida
Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could
occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over
much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on
Monday or Tuesday. Some development of this system is possible
thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or
over the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests
there should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
---
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ABNT20 KNHC 061149
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, on
Hurricane Leslie, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean,
and on Tropical Storm Milton, located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
a few days. Some development of this system is possible thereafter
while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or over the
Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests there
should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Milton are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Milton are issued under WMO
header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
---
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ABNT20 KNHC 071136
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the north-central Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane
Leslie, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Hurricane Milton, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
a few days. Afterward, environmental conditions appear marginally
favorable for some slow development of this system while it moves
westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
The system is expected to move near or over the Cabo Verde Islands
on Thursday or early Friday, and interests there should monitor its
progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
---
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ABNT20 KNHC 081134
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and
on Hurricane Milton, located over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Southwestern Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure is near the northern Bahamas with
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of
this system is possible during the next day or so while the low
moves northeastward to east-northeastward around 15 mph. Upper-
level winds are likely to increase later in the week, which should
limit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
a couple of days. Afterward, environmental conditions appear only
marginally favorable for some limited development of this system
while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic, moving near the Cabo Verde Islands on Thursday or
early Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
---
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ABNT20 KNHC 091140
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Hurricane Milton, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Southwestern Atlantic (AL93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a gale-force non-tropical
low pressure system located about 375 miles west-southwest of
Bermuda have become less organized during the last several hours.
Although environmental conditions are becoming less favorable for
development, a short-lived tropical or subtropical storm could
still form today or this evening while the low moves northeastward
to east-northeastward at around 15 mph. Upper-level winds are
forecast to become too strong for further development later tonight.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings,
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
tonight or early Thursday. Afterward, environmental conditions
appear only marginally favorable for some limited development of
this system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across
the eastern tropical Atlantic and through the Cabo Verde Islands on
Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Hagen
---
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ABNT20 KNHC 101110
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Hurricane Milton, located off the east coast of central Florida.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave that has now emerged off of the west coast of Africa
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear marginal for limited development of
this system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic and the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday. By
Saturday, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable,
and further development is unlikely after that time. Regardless of development, localized areas of heavy rain are possible across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands late Thursday through Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
---
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ABNT20 KNHC 121131
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
The circulation associated with an area of low pressure located a
couple of hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands appears to
have become slightly better defined this morning. However, the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is only marginally
well-organized, and environmental conditions are expected to become
less conducive for further development later today. A short-lived
tropical depression could still form at any time today while the
system moves generally westward. After that time, the system is
forecast to continue moving westward across the central tropical
Atlantic, but further development is not anticipated through at
least the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
---
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ABNT20 KNHC 131151
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms have diminished again in associated with
an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands. While the system is currently embedded in an
environment that is not favorable for development over the next
couple of days, the system is forecast to move generally westward to west-southwestward across the tropical Atlantic, where environmental
conditions could become more favorable for gradual development in
the central Tropical Atlantic by the mid to latter part of this
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
---
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ABNT20 KNHC 141137
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing some disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system is currently embedded in a
dry environment, and development is unlikely over the next couple of
days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward
toward warmer waters, and environmental conditions could become more
favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part of
this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins
moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward
Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
---
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ABNT20 KNHC 151151
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is
forecast to move generally westward, and environmental conditions
could become more conducive for gradual development by the middle
to latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as
the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves
near the Leeward Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure could develop over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week. Some
gradual development is possible thereafter if the system stays over
water while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern
Central America. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall
is possible across portions of Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci
---
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ABNT20 KNHC 161147
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
system is forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward,
and environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual development during the latter part of this week. A tropical
depression could form as the system moves near the Leeward and
Virgin Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development is possible if the system stays over water while it
moves slowly northwestward towards Central America. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky
---
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ABNT20 KNHC 171150
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands remain
disorganized. Some slow development is possible during the next few
days as the disturbance moves quickly westward to west-northwestward
around 20 mph, passing near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on
Friday, then near Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas on
Saturday. Strong upper-level winds should end the chances of
development by late in the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development is possible over the next couple of days before it moves
inland over Central America. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Central America and
southern Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hadi
---
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ABNT20 KNHC 181152
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

North of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (AL94):
A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms extending a couple hundred miles north of Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands. Development, if any, of this disturbance
should be slow to occur while it moves quickly westward to
west-northwestward at around 20 mph, continuing north of Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands today, then near Hispaniola and the
southeastern Bahamas this weekend. Further development is not
expected due to strong upper-level winds by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea (AL95):
Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue across the
northwestern Caribbean Sea in association with a broad area of low
pressure that is gradually becoming better defined to the north of
eastern Honduras. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
additional development over the next day or so, and a short-lived
tropical depression or storm could form before the system moves
inland over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across
portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 211138
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Oscar, located over eastern Cuba.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Delgado
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ABNT20 KNHC 221129
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Oscar, located near the central and southeastern Bahamas.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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ABNT20 KNHC 231132
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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ABNT20 KNHC 271719
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this
week or over the weekend when the system begins to drift northward
or northeastward over the southwestern and south-central Caribbean
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 281123
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this
week or over the weekend while the system begins to drift northward
or northeastward over the southwestern and central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Adams
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ABNT20 KNHC 291120
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Gradual development
is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late
this week or over the weekend while the system begins to drift
northward or northeastward toward the central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
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ABNT20 KNHC 301135
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Gradual development
is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over
the weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally
northward over the central or western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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ABNT20 KNHC 011136
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system
drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or
western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the
western Caribbean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Northeastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure located near Puerto Rico is producing a
large area of showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Greater
Antilles and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic and the
northeastern Caribbean. Slow development of this system is possible
during the next few days as it moves west-northwestward near the
Greater Antilles. After that time, this system is expected to be
absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next
several days from the northern Leeward Islands westward across
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the southeastern
Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

North Atlantic:
A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located about 400 miles
west of the western Azores is producing limited shower activity.
Some subtropical development is possible while the low moves
generally eastward during the next few days. Additional information
on this system is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly
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ABNT20 KNHC 011735
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system
drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or
western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the
western Caribbean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Northeastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure located near Puerto Rico is producing a
large area of showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Greater
Antilles and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic and the
northeastern Caribbean. Slow development of this system is possible
during the next few days as it moves west-northwestward near the
Greater Antilles. After that time, this system is expected to be
absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next
several days from the northern Leeward Islands westward across
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the southeastern
Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

North Atlantic:
A low pressure system located a few hundred miles west of the Azores
has been producing increased convection near its center over the
past few hours. Earlier satellite derived wind data depicted winds
to storm-force mainly to the south of the the center.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for some additional
development and the system could become a subtropical or tropical
storm as it moves generally eastward during the next few days.
Interest in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional information on this system is available in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly
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ABNT20 KNHC 021128
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Subtropical Storm Patty, located over the northeastern Atlantic
Ocean.

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next few days while the
system moves generally northward to northwestward over the central
and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the
western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba.
Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Near the Greater Antilles:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and gusty
winds extending from near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola northeastward
for a few hundred miles are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Slow development of this system is possible during the
next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward near the
Greater Antilles. By early next week, this system is expected to be
absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during
the next few days across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas. For more
information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Patty are issued
under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Patty are
issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT2.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
---
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ABNT20 KNHC 031141
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Patty, located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean near the
Azores Islands.

Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while
moving generally northward to northwestward over the central and
western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the
western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba.
Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress
of this system as tropical storm watches or warnings could be
required later today or tonight for portions of the area. An Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Near the Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure a couple hundred miles east of the
southeastern Bahamas continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds over the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic. Slow development of this system is possible
during the day or so while it moves westward toward the southeastern
Bahamas and eastern Cuba. This system is expected to be absorbed
into the low pressure area over the Caribbean Sea (AL97) by late
Monday, ending its chances of development. Regardless of formation,
locally heavy rains are possible during the next couple of days
across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola,
eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

$$
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ABNT20 KNHC 041132
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Patty, located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean east of
the Azores Islands.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, located over the south-central portion of
the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could develop near the northern Leeward
Islands in a few days. Some slow development of this system is
possible after that time as it moves generally westward over the
southwestern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen are issued
under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen are
issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

$$
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ABNT20 KNHC 051151
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Rafael, located over the west-central Caribbean Sea.

Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could develop near the northern Leeward
Islands in a couple of days. Afterward, some slow development of
this system is possible during the latter part of the week while it
moves generally westward over the southwestern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

$$
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ABNT20 KNHC 111134
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western
Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this
week or this weekend while moving slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

$$
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ABNT20 KNHC 121123
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central and Western Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is producing an area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the end of the week as the system
moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea. Afterward,
the disturbance is expected to meander over the western Caribbean
Sea through the weekend and begin moving slowly, generally
northwestward, by early next week. Interests across the western
Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...Medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.


$$
Forecaster Roberts

$$
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ABNT20 KNHC 131219 CCA
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

Corrected to add information about High Seas Forecasts and Gale
warnings.

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central and Western Caribbean Sea (AL99):
A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea
continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days
while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean
Sea. Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance
meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The
system is expected to turn slowly northwestward by early next week.
Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development,
heavy rains are expected over Jamaica during the next day or so. For
more information on this system, including gale warnings, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly

$$
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ABNT20 KNHC 302331
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the
Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2025. During the
off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Beven


$$
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