ACUS11 KWNS 071306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071306
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-071700-

Mesoscale Discussion 2215
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0706 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Areas affected...Northeast NM...Extreme Northwest TX Panhandle...Far
Western OK Panhandle...Southeast CO

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 071306Z - 071700Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall (i.e. rates
exceeding 1"/hr.) are expected to persist across northeastern NM and
eastern CO, and into adjacent portions of western KS and the western
TX/OK Panhandle through the morning.

DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery shows a notable baroclinic
leaf across northeast NM and eastern CO, downstream of a deep upper
low centered over AZ. This synoptic pattern is favoring strong
mid-level warm-air advection across the warm sector of this cyclone, contributing to a broad area of precipitation across much of
central/eastern NM and eastern CO, and into adjacent portions of
western KS and the western TX/OK Panhandles. Thermodynamic profiles
from east-central NM northward are cold enough for snow, and recent observations suggest moderate to occasionally heavy snow is ongoing
across the region. The upper low is expected to drift slowly
eastward throughout the day. With the slow motion of will keep much
of this region in a favorable location for continued moderate to
heavy snow, with snowfall rates occasionally topping 1" per hour
across the lower elevations. The mid-level warm-air advection is
currently maximized across northeast NM, suggesting the heaviest
snowfall is most likely across southeast CO for the next few hours.

..Mosier.. 11/07/2024

ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37950413 39090394 39290264 38250206 36540236 35730337
35760453 37950413

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