ABNT20 KNHC 261122
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle, near the eastern Azores, and on
recently upgraded Hurricane Humberto, over the subtropical central
Atlantic.

Southwestern Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a tropical wave located near Hispaniola, the
Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern Cuba. An area of low pressure
is expected to form along the wave by tonight when it moves near the
southeast Bahamas. This low is expected to become a tropical
depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest
Bahamas over the weekend, and then track northwestward or northward
over the southwestern Atlantic.

Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are ongoing
in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and are likely to spread across the Bahamas and eastern Cuba during
the next day or two. Interests in all of these areas should monitor
the progress of the system. While there remains considerable
uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system,
there is a significant risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge
impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast early next week.
Interests in this area should also monitor the progress of the
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 021143
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Imelda, located east of Bermuda.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa over the
next day or two. Thereafter, this wave is forecast to interact with
another disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic, and some slow
development of the combined feature is possible as the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure may form along a remnant frontal boundary
near the northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida over the next
couple of days. Any additional development is expected to be slow
to occur as the system moves northwestward across the Florida
Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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ABNT20 KNHC 061117
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a low-latitude tropical
wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the tropical central Atlantic. Environmental
conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next few days while it moves quickly west-northwestward across the
central tropical Atlantic, approaching the northern Leeward Islands
by the latter part of the week. Interests there should monitor the
progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 071127
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with an area of low pressure located a little more than
1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. If these trends continue,
advisories will likely be initiated on a tropical depression later
today. This system is expected to move quickly west-northwestward
across the central tropical Atlantic, and then move near or north of
the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday. Interests
there should continue to monitor its progress. For more information
on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Southwestern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure located over the Yucatan Peninsula is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is expected to emerge over the Bay of Campeche later
today, and some slow development is possible before it moves inland
over southern Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Regardless
of development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely
across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and southern
Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 111146
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located over the southwestern Atlantic about midway
between the northern Leeward Islands and Bermuda.

Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located well to the south-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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ABNT20 KNHC 162357
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Windward Islands into the Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave currently located over the central tropical Atlantic
is associated with a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Some
gradual development of this system is possible over the next several
days as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible as the
system moves across the Windward Islands late this weekend and
enters the Caribbean Sea by the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

North Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently developing several
hundred miles to the south of of Nova Scotia, Canada. This system is
expected to drop southeastward and then turn northeastward by this
weekend, and some subtropical or tropical development could occur
while the system moves over the Gulf Stream to the northeast of
Bermuda. By early next week, the system will move further
northeastward into colder waters, ending its chances for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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