ACUS11 KWNS 181225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181225=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-181430-

Mesoscale Discussion 2232
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Areas affected...parts of north central Texas through
central/eastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 710...

Valid 181225Z - 181430Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 710 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes
appears in the process of diminishing, as storms progress into and
east of the I-35 corridor. A new severe weather watch is not
currently anticipated in the near term.

DISCUSSION...The narrow, strongly forced squall line has undergone
at least some recent general weakening. Based on latest Rapid
Refresh output, it appears to have overtaken the narrow pre-frontal
plume of higher northward returning low-level moisture content, and
advanced well ahead of the leading edge of stronger mid-level
cooling. In the presence of weaker lower/mid-tropospheric lapse
rates, and a residual stable near-surface layer, the potential for
damaging wind gusts and perhaps brief tornadoes seems likely to
diminish as activity spreads across and east of the I-35 corridor,
particularly to the north of the Red River.=20=20

More uncertainty exists to the south of the Red River, within
continuing better low-level moisture return from the northwestern
Gulf. However, potential for appreciable thunderstorm
intensification may await destabilization aided by daytime heating,
and forcing associated with the next perturbation progressing
through the base of the larger-scale mid-level troughing pivoting east-northeast of the South Plains.

..Kerr.. 11/18/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9RBoEIxEhWMlxMKQ1NhRmfLKORb8oS5MG_X1VP6L-uhWOi2hirzLtlGwsU_KTy0fyWw0ompAD= sAlFg5uY_MEMoGQ-QM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 36119770 36469699 35829616 33879644 32699689 32189753
32139849 33169829 35109772 36119770=20


=3D =3D =3D
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