ACUS11 KWNS 041101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041101=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-041300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2201
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Areas affected...Northwest TX...Southwest/South-Central/Central OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 041101Z - 041300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging gusts is increasing across central
Oklahoma, with some increase in the threat across southwest Oklahoma
and adjacent far northwest Texas as well. Trends are being monitored
for a possible watch.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low between SNK and
SWW in the Low Rolling Plains region of TX. A warm front extends
northeastward from this low through northwest TX and south-central
OK into southeast OK. Location of this front is roughly demarcated
by the 70 deg F isotherm. Showers and thunderstorms are currently
ongoing north of this boundary from far northwest TX into southwest
OK, supported by both low-level warm-air advection and increasing
large-scale ascent (attendant to the approaching shortwave trough).
A few of the cells over west-central/southwest OK have become better
organized over the past hour or so, with the cell in Tillman County
exhibiting a notable forward surge while also producing a 55 kt gust
at FDR. The threat for damaging gusts will continue with this
developing line as it continues northeastward into central OK. The
tornado threat should be limited by the low buoyancy and persisting
modest convective inhibition. That being said, if this line is able
to become surface-based, or even near-surface-based, there is enough
low-level shear to promote circulations embedded within the line.=20

While not evident at the moment, a similar evolution, where the
elevated storms become organized into a more coherent line, is also
possible farther south across far northwest TX. Overall convective
trends will be monitored for a potential watch or watches across
this region.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 11/04/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Ik71tr6N5g_FLK-4dSovw8W9yNiNpkf7NUFxmKjbl4f8Pt5RxBei2Holj7Kj2fRGYXJAe0Q8= NAIECuiaxeAF7ohUPg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 33060030 33800046 35769829 35969648 34619633 33819842
33060030=20


=3D =3D =3D
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