ACUS11 KWNS 022056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022055=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-022230-

Mesoscale Discussion 2183
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Areas affected...portions of west Texas into extreme southeastern
New Mexico

Concerning...Tornado Watch 698...

Valid 022055Z - 022230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 698 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 698.
Severe hail and wind appear to be the main threats, though a couple
of tornadoes may still occur.

DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells are in progress across extreme
southeastern NM, with additional storms attempting to strengthen in
far western TX near convective outflow remnant from an earlier
squall line. MRMS mosaic MESH data suggests that severe hail may be
falling with some of the more mature supercells, and a couple of
stones may be approaching 2 inches in diameter. These storms are
maximizing in intensity along a stalled convective outflow boundary,
which is where the greatest threat for severe storms (including a
tornado or two) remains. Farther south into the warm sector, the
initiation of robust storms remains uncertain. Here, ample buoyancy
remains in place, but visible satellite shows a stagnant, or
potentially decaying cumulus field. Still, the severe threat should
persist near the outflow boundary, where lift is strongest for
supporting further storm development and potential upscale growth
into a squall line later this evening.

..Squitieri.. 11/02/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9xX-CYGzjT0e4tvvCzsi8ESQL4WliEspSh7f-IXEokfc2lhbEv06PpuWH96dzIC4PQ3wJpi7f= -5xv-5MqG0isBEfOtQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 32560442 32990359 33150261 32820148 32260134 31800175
31650270 31690349 31890414 32560442=20


=3D =3D =3D
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