ACUS01 KWNS 301955
SWODY1
SPC AC 301954

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Valid 302000Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered large hail,
numerous damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today
into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern
Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into Missouri and
vicinity. A strong tornado or two is possible across
south-central/southeastern Kansas into central Oklahoma.

...20z Update...
The Enhanced Risk was expanded further southward through the
Oklahoma City metro with this update. The Slight Risk was also
expanded further west and southward. Recent trends in satellite and
radar have shown cell development further south and west along the
dryline than previously forecast. The environment across central
Oklahoma is favorable for maintenance of supercells, with daytime
heating yielding MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and shear around 40 kts
progged to increase with the increasing low level jet this
afternoon/evening. Boundary parallel shear and overtaking of the
dryline by the cold front will lead to a transition to more linear
structure around sunset. However, deep layer shear profiles will
continue to support embedded supercell structures after dark with
the potential for tornadoes, some strong, to continue through the
evening. Large hail will also be a concern late afternoon/early
evening while discrete mode is maintained.

Tornado probabilities were adjusted across northeastern Kansas to
account for progression of the cold front and earlier convective
activity. See previous discussion for more information.

..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/30/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/

...Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley...
The lead portion of an upper trough centered over the Rockies and
Four Corners will eject northeastward over the central Plains today.
A related surface low will likewise develop northeastward along a
cold front from the southern High Plains to IA by this evening. A
dryline extending southward from this low will mix eastward across
western OK and west TX through late this afternoon before stalling.
Robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the southern/central Plains along and south/east of the cold front and
dryline. Generally elevated thunderstorms have developed this
morning across parts of central KS, as large-scale ascent preceding
the ejecting upper trough has begun to overspread the central
Plains. This activity should tend to remain just to the cool side of
the front through the early afternoon. But, this convection may pose
some threat for severe hail given sufficient MUCAPE with steepening
mid-level lapse rates in the presence of strong deep-layer shear.
There is also some chance it eventually becomes surface based later
this afternoon across northeast KS.

Otherwise, continued filtered daytime heating of the moistening warm
sector should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late
afternoon from southern IA into eastern KS/western MO, and locally
stronger to around 2000 J/kg in north-central OK. Current
expectations are for surface-based thunderstorms to initiate by
20-22Z across central/eastern KS and north-central/northwest OK, in
close proximity to the surface low and front/dryline intersection.
Rather strong (50-80 kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will overlie
this region this afternoon/evening, along with enhanced
south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer. Related deep-layer
shear around 45-60 kt will easily support supercells and associated
threat for scattered hail initially. Isolated very large hail may
occur from south-central KS into north-central OK with any sustained
supercell given the rather favorable overlap of moderate instability
with steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear.

With time this evening, upscale growth into a QLCS with greater
threat for severe/damaging winds is anticipated. This
severe/damaging wind threat should continue tonight as the line
spreads eastward across IA/MO, before eventually becoming more isolated/diminishing with eastward extent into the mid MS Valley.
The tornado potential should also increase late this afternoon and
evening, as a southerly low-level jet and related 0-1 km SRH
strengthens rapidly through 23-04Z. The potential for sustained
supercells in central/eastern KS and north-central OK remains
somewhat unclear, but any semi-discrete activity will pose a threat
for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong given the favorable
low-level shear and hodograph curvature. Embedded mesovorticies
within the QLCS will also be possible. Based on latest guidance and observational trends, severe probabilities have been expanded
westward some across KS/OK, especially in the vicinity of the
expected front/dryline intersection. The Enhanced Risk has also been
expanded slightly eastward in western MO to account for scattered to
numerous severe wind gusts with the QLCS this evening.

Convective initiation may be delayed until around 00Z or later
across central/eastern OK. But, potential for discrete supercells
may be a bit better across this region given the dryline as the
initiating boundary, and somewhat less large-scale ascent with
southward extent away from the cold front. Any convection that can
develop and be sustained will likely be supercellular for at least a
couple of hours this evening, before upscale growth eventually
occurs along the cold front. A threat for large hail and tornadoes
will exist with any supercell, before the damaging wind threat
increases as the convective mode becomes more linear.

...Southeast Texas...
There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating
thunderstorms could materialize today across the region within a
very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as
low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate
degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength
winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity
for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating
characteristics, and the overall severe potential should tend to
remain limited.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 311631
SWODY1
SPC AC 311629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Valid 311630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms capable of producing occasional wind
gusts remain possible today from parts of east Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley and Mid-South.

...ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South...
A small area of low wind probabilities has been maintained with this
update from northeast TX to western TN. An ongoing, loosely
organized squall line will continue to move east-southeastward this
afternoon across parts of the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley.
Widespread cloud cover is hindering daytime heating to some extent,
and poor mid-level lapse rates should also limit the degree of
MLCAPE available for convection. The stronger low/mid-level flow
associated with an ejecting cyclone over the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes is expected to remain displaced well to the north of the
ongoing convection through this afternoon. While modest deep-layer
shear will exist across the lower MS Valley vicinity, the overall
severe wind threat will likely remain muted by weak instability.
Further reduction and/or removal of the Marginal Risk will be
considered with the next scheduled update (20Z).

...Ohio Valley/Great Lakes...
Destabilization ahead of an eastward-moving cold front is forecast
to remain rather limited this afternoon. While stronger
low/mid-level flow will be present over the OH Valley and Great
Lakes in association with an ejecting upper trough, potential for
gusty winds with thunderstorms should remain low.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 10/31/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 311956
SWODY1
SPC AC 311954

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Valid 312000Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely this afternoon and evening.

...20z Update...
The Marginal risk across the Southeast was removed with this update.
Storms have largely been sub-severe and disorganized, as low-level
flow remains weak. In addition, thunder chances were removed from
the Pacific Northwest.

..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/31/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024/

...ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South...
A small area of low wind probabilities has been maintained with this
update from northeast TX to western TN. An ongoing, loosely
organized squall line will continue to move east-southeastward this
afternoon across parts of the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley.
Widespread cloud cover is hindering daytime heating to some extent,
and poor mid-level lapse rates should also limit the degree of
MLCAPE available for convection. The stronger low/mid-level flow
associated with an ejecting cyclone over the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes is expected to remain displaced well to the north of the
ongoing convection through this afternoon. While modest deep-layer
shear will exist across the lower MS Valley vicinity, the overall
severe wind threat will likely remain muted by weak instability.
Further reduction and/or removal of the Marginal Risk will be
considered with the next scheduled update (20Z).

...Ohio Valley/Great Lakes...
Destabilization ahead of an eastward-moving cold front is forecast
to remain rather limited this afternoon. While stronger
low/mid-level flow will be present over the OH Valley and Great
Lakes in association with an ejecting upper trough, potential for
gusty winds with thunderstorms should remain low.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 010013
SWODY1
SPC AC 010012

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through Friday morning.

Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening near a weak surface
trough extending from far southern TX into LA and MS. These storms
remain in a weakly sheared environment, well south of the shortwave
trough moving across the upper Great Lakes. While the environment is
moist and marginally unstable, severe weather is therefore unlikely.

..Jewell.. 11/01/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 010447
SWODY1
SPC AC 010445

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms, a few which may become capable of marginal
hail/wind, will likely evolve across parts of the southern High
Plains from this evening into the overnight.

...Synopsis...
Moderate west to southwest flow aloft will stretch from the Plains
into the Northeast today, with a broad upper trough across much of
the West. A strong embedded wave will drop southward overnight from
OR/CA into the Great basin, providing cooling aloft. Ahead of this
system, gradual height rises will occur over the southern Plains as
the western system amplifies.

At the surface, high pressure will exist from the Great Lakes
southward toward the northern Gulf Coast, with moist low-level
easterly winds across the western Gulf of Mexico and into TX. By the
end of the period 12Z Saturday, lower 60s F dewpoints will be as far
west as the TX/NM border.

...TX...
Gradual moistening of the air mass will occur across TX for much of
the period, with increasing warm advection around 850 mb overnight
as the upper trough amplifies to the west. Still, wind speeds will
not be particularly strong, perhaps around 30-40 kt over west TX by
12Z Saturday.

Although gradual warming aloft is forecast overnight, 500 mb
temperatures around -10 C will still exist around the latitude of
Midland. With lower 60s F dewpoints at this elevation, MUCAPE will
likely exceed 1000 J/kg, while deep-layer effective shear increases
to around 35 kt.

Thunderstorms will likely form after 03Z over much of eastern NM and
far west TX, eventually spreading into the far western TX Panhandle
and South Plains. Generally veering and increasing winds with height
may favor a few transient storms capable of marginally severe hail,
though some midlevel weakness in wind speeds is noted. As such, a
Marginal Risk for hail appears warranted tonight, perhaps as far
southwest as El Paso TX.

..Jewell/Weinman.. 11/01/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011255
SWODY1
SPC AC 011254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the
southern High Plains, from this evening into the overnight.

...Synopsis...
Today will mark the start of a substantial mid/upper-level pattern amplification over the CONUS. This will be mainly related to a
strong shortwave trough now digging southeastward over the Pacific,
offshore from OR, and south of a cyclone now covering the BC Coast
and adjacent waters. The cyclone will move inland and devolve to an
open-wave trough, but also, will phase better with the amplifying
shortwave trough. By the end of the period, this should result in a
major synoptic-scale trough from southern BC over the Pacific Coast
States and offshore from Baja. Associated cyclonic flow then will
cover nearly all the CONUS from the High Plains westward, with
height falls from the northern/central Rockies to the southern High
Plains.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over southern QC, with a
cold front southwestward across western portions of NY/PA/WV,
eastern KY, middle TN, northern MS, to east and south-central parts
of TX. The western part of this frontal zone will decelerate today,
become more diffuse, and merge with an inland-shifting, older,
marine/warm frontal zone now lying quasistationary near the LA
coastline and over deep south TX. The latter boundary will
demarcate the northern extent of optimal Gulf moisture, and should
shift northward/inland through tonight, but remain southeast of west
TX and eastern NM until day 2. Another low, with a weak cold front
arching southward over the central High Plains, will dissipate
through the period, as lee troughing intensifies just to the west
(in advance of the strengthening mid/upper trough).

...Southern High Plains...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over
portions of far west TX and southeastern NM from late afternoon into
evening, as gradually increasing boundary-layer moisture becomes
available to diurnally heated higher terrain in the region.
Thunderstorm coverage should increase from late this evening through
the overnight hours, and begin training within a southwest/
northeast-oriented plume from far west TX to southern KS. This
convective growth will be related to strengthening low-level theta-e
and moisture, WAA-related large-scale ascent, and weakening MUCINH.
The most intense cells embedded in this regime may produce severe
hail or gusts, but the overall areal severe threat still appears to
be on the marginal side, due to lack of greater
instability/buoyancy.

In response to trough amplification aloft over the West, low-level
warm advection and moisture transport will persist and enlarge into
the southern High Plains region, with a 30-40-kt LLJ progged to
develop overnight. However this will be an early stage of the
return-flow process under modest lapse rates aloft, with
considerable residual continental trajectories still involved in low
levels, and the most-favorable, Gulf-modified parcels not forecast
to reach the region until day-2 and beyond. Though upper 50s to low
60 F surface dewpoints should spread into the Permian Basin region
of west TX and southeastern NM tonight, the area of strongest lift
farther northwest will have less moisture. MUCAPE of 500-800 J/kg
is expected around the time of most of the convective development,
increasing to the 1000-1500 J/kg range in non-convective inflow
sector by the end of the period. A layer of weaker midlevel flow
above the LLJ will restrict vertical shear, keeping effective-shear
magnitudes under 30 kt over most of the area. As such, any
supercell processes should be isolated and transient in character,
especially considering the anticipated upscale evolution to a
relatively dense convective-precip corridor.

...TX Rio Grande Valley between DRT-LRD...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms should develop this
afternoon as the easterly/upslope component of flow impinges on
higher terrain of the Serranias del Burro of northern Coahuila, and
adjoining higher slopes in the direction of the Rio Grande.
Isolated large hail and damaging gusts are possible, but
predominantly on the Mexican side of the border. The boundary layer
in the valley will be strongly heated and richly moist, with
dewpoints from the upper 60s to low 70s F. Given the lack of
stronger midlevel flow, however, two related factors render a highly conditional potential on the TX side:
1. Modest deep shear, despite strong veering with height from
surface into midlevels. Forecast soundings suggest just 30-35-kt effective-shear magnitudes.
2. Uncertainty about whether orographically initiated convection
can remain organized/severe long enough to reach the border.

Early-stage supercells, if any, may not survive far enough eastward
in that mode, but outflow-dominant/forward-propagating multicellular
clusters might. As such, a very conditional severe-gust threat may
reach TX. Given the absence of a robust EML and of related MLCINH,
deep convection also may develop in the warm sector east of the Rio
Grande, amid strong diurnal heating and rich moisture, but the foci
for lift are quite unclear at this time. With all these
uncertainties, will refrain from an unconditional severe area for
this outlook cycle.

..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/01/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011618
SWODY1
SPC AC 011617

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the
southern High Plains, from this evening into the overnight.

...Southern High Plains...
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows patches of
stratocumulus over the Pecos River Valley. This low-level moisture
coincides with the northwesterly fringe of richer moisture located
over the Hill Country and Deep South TX. The timelapse of
water-vapor imagery shows the onset of an amplifying large-scale
trough over the West. A lead lower-latitude disturbance over
northern Baja and Sonora will shift eastward along the Mexican
border during the period and aid in the development of a lee trough
over the southern High Plains beneath moderately strong
southwesterly mid-level flow.

A gradual intensification of low-level warm-air advection downstream
of the upper trough will occur through tonight across the southern
High Plains. Model guidance continues to indicate widely
spaced/isolated thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and
into the evening across Far West TX into southeastern NM as 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE develops coincident with the increase in low-level
moisture. Thunderstorm coverage should increase from late this
evening through the overnight hours, and begin training within a southwest/northeast-oriented plume from far west TX to southern KS.
This convective growth will be related to strengthening low-level
theta-e and moisture, WAA-related large-scale ascent, and weakening
MUCINH. The most intense cells embedded in this regime may produce
severe hail or gusts, but the overall areal severe threat still
appears to be on the marginal side, due to lack of greater instability/buoyancy.

..Smith/Moore.. 11/01/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011941
SWODY1
SPC AC 011940

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the
southern High Plains, from this evening into the overnight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton/Smith.. 11/01/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024/

...Southern High Plains...
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows patches of
stratocumulus over the Pecos River Valley. This low-level moisture
coincides with the northwesterly fringe of richer moisture located
over the Hill Country and Deep South TX. The timelapse of
water-vapor imagery shows the onset of an amplifying large-scale
trough over the West. A lead lower-latitude disturbance over
northern Baja and Sonora will shift eastward along the Mexican
border during the period and aid in the development of a lee trough
over the southern High Plains beneath moderately strong
southwesterly mid-level flow.

A gradual intensification of low-level warm-air advection downstream
of the upper trough will occur through tonight across the southern
High Plains. Model guidance continues to indicate widely
spaced/isolated thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and
into the evening across Far West TX into southeastern NM as 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE develops coincident with the increase in low-level
moisture. Thunderstorm coverage should increase from late this
evening through the overnight hours, and begin training within a southwest/northeast-oriented plume from far west TX to southern KS.
This convective growth will be related to strengthening low-level
theta-e and moisture, WAA-related large-scale ascent, and weakening
MUCINH. The most intense cells embedded in this regime may produce
severe hail or gusts, but the overall areal severe threat still
appears to be on the marginal side, due to lack of greater instability/buoyancy.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 020016
SWODY1
SPC AC 020015

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated marginally severe hail and/or gusts are possible across
parts of the southern High Plains later tonight.

...Eastern NM into western TX...
Storms are expected to form over eastern NM between 03-06Z,
expanding in coverage and spreading into the western TX Panhandle
and South Plains late. Isolated strong storms are also anticipated
extending southwestward toward El Paso TX. Marginal hail or wind,
and locally heavy rain will be possible. See the WPC Day 1 Excessive
Rainfall Outlook for more information.

..Jewell.. 11/02/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 020454
SWODY1
SPC AC 020453

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...AND INTO
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible later today and
tonight primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into
southwest Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough over the western CONUS will become highly amplified,
with strong cooling aloft overspreading the Great Basin and Four
Corners states. Southwest winds will increase across the Plains,
with a weak lee trough developing along the length of the High
Plains. Increasing southerly surface winds will bring a moist air
mass northward across the southern Plains, resulting in widespread
rain and thunderstorms primary from northwest TX across OK and into
KS. Elsewhere, a large upper high will maintain relatively dry
conditions over the eastern CONUS.

...Parts of western TX and southeast NM into southwest OK...
Substantial rain and storms are likely to be ongoing from southeast
NM into parts of the South Plains/TX Panhandle early, in a zone of
moisture advection. An unstable air mass will already be in place
with around 1500 J/kg MUCAPE, beneath moderate southwest flow aloft.
Outflow boundaries may exist relatively early in the day, and may
limit northward extent of the severe risk initially. However, at
least marginal hail could extend northward into the cooler surface
air mass from the TX Panhandle into western OK.

The greatest severe risk appears to be with diurnal activity that
will form along the eastern fringe of the strongest heating coming
out of far west TX, and, just on the south side of any aggregate
outflow boundaries extending across northwest TX and into southwest
OK. Increasing SRH, especially during the evening, may favor a
couple tornadoes with the more discrete cells away from the larger
heavy rain mass (see WPC Excessive Rainfall products for more
information). Otherwise, occasional strong to damaging gusts may
occur with any bowing structures traveling northeastward along the
composite outflow/front as far east as central OK through the
evening and overnight.

..Jewell/Weinman.. 11/02/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021248
SWODY1
SPC AC 021246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible later today and
tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into
southwest Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, a full-latitude trough is located from BC down
the West Coast States to Baja. A series of accompanying shortwaves
and speed maxima -- predominantly remaining behind the height axis
-- will contribute to the trough's eastward shift across the western
parts of the CONUS and Canada through the period. By 12Z tomorrow,
the trough should extend from the Mackenzie River Valley of
northwestern Canada, across the length of AB, to western MT, the central/eastern Great Basin, western/central AZ, Sonora, and
southern Baja. An extensive fetch of southwest flow aloft and
height falls will precede the trough over the U.S Rocky Mountains
and Great Plains.

In the slower southern part of that southwest flow, a basal
shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over parts
of AZ and the eastern Sonora/western Chihuahua area. This feature
is augmenting the more diffuse, large-scale support from the
synoptic trough for the warm/moist advection regime and related,
extensive band of thunderstorms and precip observed from southern NM
to southern KS. This perturbation should reach eastern NM and far
west TX by 00Z, then perhaps with convective vorticity enhancement,
eject northeastward into portions of KS and western OK overnight.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front over the Atlantic
well offshore from the Mid-Atlantic region, becoming quasistationary
across northern FL, the north-central Gulf Coast vicinity and
southeast TX, then a warm front over central/northwest TX. The
western segment of this boundary should move slowly and diffusely
northeastward today into OK as a warm front.

...Southern High Plains to portions of OK...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms in a southwest/northeast-
oriented band should shift eastward over the outlook areas today
into this evening, offering mainly isolated damaging gusts and
marginally severe hail, with a low-end threat for embedded/QLCS
mesovortex tornadoes. Hail and tornado potential will be greatest
farther southwest today over parts of west TX and extreme
southeastern NM.

Available/modified RAOB data and objective SPC mesoanalyses indicate
effective inflow parcels already are surface-based south and west of
the effective warm front, across western OK, northwest TX, and the
South Plains to the Permian Basin. This should remain the case
throughout today, as muted diabatic heating and theta-e advection
slowly destabilize the warm sector south of the convective boundary.
This will combine with mid 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints,
offsetting modest midlevel lapse rates enough to support
peak/preconvective MLCAPE ranging from around 2000 J/kg over
southeastern NM and the South Plains/Permian Basin regions, to
around 500 J/kg near the diffuse warm front in central OK. The
approaching synoptic and shortwave troughs will tighten height
gradients enough to boost deep shear, contributing to around
35-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes. Meanwhile, low-level
hodographs should exhibit enough size/curvature and lowest-km RH to
suggest at least marginal tornado potential.

While the parameter space (as sampled by various model soundings)
will be favorable for the full range of severe hazards in and near
the "slight risk" corridor today, a somewhat anafrontal character to
the convective band is expected, given that it will be nearly
parallel to the flow aloft and slowly progressive due to quasi-
linear outflow effects. Sustained and/or discrete supercell
potential appears greatest near the southern end of the regime over
the Permian Basin region, where instability should be greatest today
amid favorable shear, thereby relatively maximizing overall
probabilities for tornadoes and large to significant-severe (2+
inch) hail.

..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/02/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021631
SWODY1
SPC AC 021629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this
afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South
Plains into Oklahoma.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over
CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the
Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead
mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern
NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls
overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front
in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east
of morning showers/thunderstorms.

...Southern High Plains to portions of OK...
An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong
thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through
western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow
slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin.
Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains
northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence
in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe
threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e
advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of
convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual
destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the
convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation
of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over
parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later
this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have
opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite
some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud
cover, destabilization).

Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern
parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F
dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to
moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the
lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger
storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into
a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with
the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and
localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into
northwest TX.

..Smith/Moore.. 11/02/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021946
SWODY1
SPC AC 021944

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERMIAN BASIN AND
SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this
afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South
Plains into Oklahoma.

...20z Update...
Only slight adjustments were made to the Marginal Risk across far
eastern New Mexico to account for recent trends in radar. Trends
continue to suggest that storms across western Texas into eastern
New Mexico before growing upscale and moving into northwestern Texas
and eventually Oklahoma. Some question remains how much air mass
recovery can happen north of the Red River across southwest Oklahoma
behind the current line of storms. Visible satellite shows a few
breaks in the clouds across southwestern Oklahoma into northwestern
Texas behind the ongoing complex/outflow. For now, confidence
remains too low to make an adjustments to severe probabilities given
the signal in CAM guidance for an eastward propagating MCS this
evening. See previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton/Smith.. 11/02/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over
CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the
Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead
mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern
NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls
overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front
in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east
of morning showers/thunderstorms.

...Southern High Plains to portions of OK...
An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong
thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through
western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow
slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin.
Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains
northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence
in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe
threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e
advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of
convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual
destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the
convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation
of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over
parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later
this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have
opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite
some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud
cover, destabilization).

Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern
parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F
dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to
moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the
lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger
storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into
a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with
the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and
localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into
northwest TX.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030042
SWODY1
SPC AC 030041

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible through tonight,
primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma.

...Northwest TX into OK...
Scattered clusters of rain and storms persist this evening from
extreme southeast NM across the South Plains and into central OK.
The large-scale instability gradient currently extends south of the
aggregate outflow, roughly from Midland TX to Ardmore OK, with
1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE to the south.

Given the persistent southerly flow regime through tonight, a moist
and unstable air mass will likely spread north, with elevated
instability increasing over currently rain-cooled areas from
northwest TX into OK.

In the near term, the greatest supercell threat will remain over the
Permian Basin, in closer proximity to the most unstable air, with
hail or brief tornado risk. With time, storms may tend to
consolidate just north of the instability gradient, with an
increasing low-level jet supporting locally damaging gusts. Ambient
SRH over 200 m2/s2 may also favor embedded circulations at times,
especially if the activity can consolidate into a squall line as
indicated by some models.

..Jewell.. 11/03/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030532
SWODY1
SPC AC 030530

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are possible in multiple rounds throughout
the period. The most likely areas affected include parts of Oklahoma
into north and west-central Texas. A few tornadoes, damaging winds,
and large hail may occur.

...Synopsis...
A large/full-latitude upper trough will progress slowly east across
the Rockies today, with strengthening south/southwest winds aloft
spreading east across the Plains and toward the MS Valley into
Monday morning. Winds aloft and therefore deep-layer shear will
generally increase throughout the period as an upper high remains
over the Southeast. Various embedded waves associated with ongoing
storms will likely exist from northern TX across OK and toward the
mid MO Valley, while the primary speed max rounds the base of the
trough late, moving across northern Mexico and into southwest TX.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High
Plains, with a broad fetch of south to southeast winds across the
Plains. This, along with 850 mb speeds of 40-50 kt, will maintain a
moist air mass across the southern Plains, contributing to bouts of
storms, some severe, primarily from northwest TX across OK.

...From northern TX into KS...
Numerous storms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z this morning, from
northern TX into eastern OK. Some of this activity could produce
locally strong gusts, perhaps into western AR by midday.

Behind this activity, an outflow boundary will likely be draped
along the Red River vicinity, while a dryline forms over
west-central TX. Southerly winds will bring mid to upper 60s F
dewpoints into OK, as low-level lapse rates steepen west of the
dryline. Increasing instability with little CIN will lead to renewed development along the dryline possibly by late morning, and,
along/north of the aforementioned outflow boundary. A few supercells
appear likely across this regime, primarily from northwest TX into
central OK. The exact position of the outflow boundaries is
uncertain, but a favorable corridor for a couple tornadoes may
develop near northern portions of the dryline and near the
retreating boundary during the afternoon. Effective SRH will be on
the order of 200 to 300 m2/s2, with elongating hodographs as the
upper trough continues east. Multiple bouts of thunderstorms and
associated new/stabilizing outflows decrease predictability for a
categorical upgrade at this time.

Farther north into western KS, cool air aloft and dewpoints into the
mid and upper 50s F may lead to isolated storms capable of hail, as
instability becomes sufficient along with around 60 kt deep-layer
shear. The cap is forecast to mix out west of the dryline and near
the surface low during the late afternoon, and, a cold front will
push south across NE and into western KS during the evening, further
enhancing lift.

..Jewell/Weinman.. 11/03/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031250
SWODY1
SPC AC 031249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today
through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes,
damaging winds and large hail are possible.

...Synopsis...
A full-latitude, mid/upper-level trough will move slowly eastward
across the western CONUS, while evolving into a split-flow regime.
The more-influential southern section of the trough is expected to
amplify considerably as a shortwave perturbation and associated
speed max -- now located over the southern Great Basin -- pivot
through the base of the synoptic trough. By 00Z, the shortwave
trough should dig southeastward to southern AZ and adjoining
portions of Sonora. A leading vorticity lobe should eject to
eastern NM by the end of the period, within a broader area of
enhanced cyclonic flow extending across AZ, northern Chihuahua, and
west TX. A 500-mb low may form by 12Z tomorrow near the center of
that curvature, across central NM. In response to these
developments, strengthening/difluent flow and height falls will
spread eastward ahead of the synoptic trough -- across the southern
Plains and west TX.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed an outflow boundary fronting an
MCS from the western Ozarks southwestward to northwest TX. The
boundary should shift into AR and southeastern OK through the
remainder of the morning before stalling, while the segment from the
Red River region southwestward across the Big Country and northern
Permian Basin already has become very slow-moving to stationary.
The boundary should retreat northward through the period, with
uncertainty remaining as to how far and with what specific timing,
given a substantial cold pool evident across central/western OK and
the South Plains/Panhandle region. A dryline -- initially analyzed
over southeastern NM and far west TX -- should shift eastward to the
southern Panhandle/south Plains and across the Permian Basin through
the afternoon. A surface low initially near the central CO/KS
border should move northeastward to central/north-central NE by 00Z,
with cold front southwestward to another low in southeastern CO. A
lee trough and more diffuse dryline will take shape and move
eastward across the central High Plains into western KS, before
being overtaken by the cold front.

...Southern/central Plains...
A QLCS began the period arching from the western Ozarks across
southeastern OK and parts of north-central/northwest TX. The
central/northern part of this complex is outrunning favorably
unstable inflow and should continue a broader weakening trend
through the remainder of the morning. Meanwhile the southern part
-- over southern OK and north TX -- has more buoyancy and still-
favorable vertical shear to its east and southeast. However, that
segment of convection is decelerating and non-severe. It also is
located behind the associated outflow boundary, which is exhibiting
anafrontal characteristics.

As it retreats northward across the Red River Valley today into this
evening, the outflow boundary should become more diffuse, with a
loosening baroclinic gradient. This will occur amidst broader,
synoptically driven theta-e advection. Meanwhile this feature and
the dryline to its southwest should focus additional widely
scattered to scattered thunderstorm development. Convection also
may form in the warm/moist sector east of the dryline and south of
the outflow boundary, given the lack of a substantial EML and
typically accompanying capping. With favorable low-level and deep-
layer shear expected, supercells and bowing QLCS configurations are
possible, offering all severe hazards (hail, gusts, tornadoes). The
greatest potential for relatively discrete/sustained supercells
appears to be near the retreating boundary in northwest TX and parts
of southern/central OK, and significant-severe hail may occur with
some of that convection.

Multiple convective episodes are expected from the afternoon's
greatest boundary-layer heating through late overnight, when
large-scale ascent will increase again due to both warm advection/
LLJ processes and DCVA/cooling aloft ahead of the approaching
trough. These will overlap rich low-level moisture (surface
dewpoints near and south of the boundary in the mid 60s to low 70s
F). By late overnight, airmass recovery may extend into much of
western/central OK, supporting another round of severe potential
there. A more-concentrated mesoscale-focused severe threat
(especially for tornadoes and/or severe gusts) may develop today
into this evening near the residual boundary, but uncertainty on
convective mode/coverage remains too large to assign greater
unconditional probabilities at this cycle.

Farther north, diurnally destabilized but convectively processed
trajectories will temper the overall threat into the central Plains, along/ahead of the dryline and cold front. However, a few strong-
severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly this afternoon into early
evening.

..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/03/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031629
SWODY1
SPC AC 031628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today
through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes,
damaging winds and large hail are possible.

...TX/OK/AR/MO...
Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over
parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with
dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification
and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM.
A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north
TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west
will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening,
resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell
structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.
Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM
solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into
southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of
damaging wind gusts.

..Hart/Moore.. 11/03/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031956
SWODY1
SPC AC 031955

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible today
through tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes,
damaging winds and large hail are possible.

...20z Update...
No changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook with this update.
However, uncertainty lies in a the mesoscale details this evening as
the warm front/remnant outflow drifts northward. Air mass recovery
has been rapidly occurring across southwestern Oklahoma as observed
in observations of theta-e advection from the Oklahoma Mesonet.
Thunderstorms have increased in intensity across northwest Texas
into southwestern Oklahoma near the Red River with occasional
supercell development ahead of the more linear/bowing segments. For
now, the richer SRH remains located along the Red River across the
TX/OK border into southeastern Oklahoma with the main threat
remaining damaging wind and large hail. Though, a tornado or two
remain possible. See MCD2191 for more information.

It is likely the tornado risk will increase through the
afternoon/evening along this corridor with further strengthening of
the low-level jet expected. Ahead of the air mass recovery across
southwestern Oklahoma, elevated storms are ongoing across areas just
north of the DFW metro into south-central/southeastern Oklahoma.
Warm air advection into this region should allow for air mass
recovery and potential for a few lead supercells to develop ahead of
the main line of thunderstorms. These would pose a risk for a few
tornadoes (some of which could be strong). Line embedded tornadoes
will be possible with the main line. Some consideration to extending
the Enhanced northwestward was given, due to some uncertainty on how
far north the wind/tornado threat will extend this evening. For now,
confidence is highest in the highlighted corridor of 10% tornado
risk from north Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma. See MCD2192
for additional information.

..Thornton/Hart.. 11/03/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024/

...TX/OK/AR/MO...
Thunderstorms have begun to form along the surface boundary over
parts of west TX. Broken clouds ahead of this activity, along with
dewpoints in mid/upper 60s, will eventually lead to intensification
and an increasing severe risk as a large upper trough digs into NM.
A remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extends from north
TX into southeast OK. It is anticipated that storms to the west
will interact with this boundary through the afternoon and evening,
resulting in a corridor of enhanced risk of bowing/supercell
structures capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.
Therefore have upgraded that small area to ENH risk. Recent CAM
solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into
southwest MO and northwest AR late tonight, with a continued risk of
damaging wind gusts.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040059
SWODY1
SPC AC 040057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms remain possible
tonight over parts of the southern Plains. Tornadoes, damaging
winds and large hail are expected.

...01z Update...

Seasonally strong upper trough is advancing east across the Four
Corners region early this evening. 90+kt 500mb speed max will rotate
into the base of this feature over northern Mexico late tonight and
into far West TX by sunrise. In response, LLJ is forecast to
increase markedly across the southern High Plains later this
evening, with the nose of the LLJ expected to focus into western OK
by the end of the period. 20-30kt southerly 1km winds are currently
noted at SJT/MAF/DYX, and higher PWs will begin to surge north over
the next few hours into the TX South Plains. Scattered convection
continues to trail southwest across the Big Country, but this
activity is not currently strongly forced. However, low-level
convergence should increase across northwest TX as the LLJ
increases, and scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will likely
develop late this evening into the early-morning hours as far
northwest as the eastern portions of LBB CWA. Forecast soundings
exhibit very steep 2-6km lapse rates, which contribute to MUCAPE
approaching 3000 J/kg within an environment that will become
increasingly sheared. Long hodographs appear favorable for very
large hail with this activity. Additionally, as upper 60s surface
dew points advance into southwest OK, surface-based parcels become
uninhibited and substantial SBCAPE will once again develop. In
addition to large hail, threat of tornadoes may increase very late
in the period as boundary layer recovers across this portion of the
Plains.

Otherwise, a larger complex of storms, that currently extends from
the Red River into eastern OK, will gradually advance east this
evening. Scattered supercells are embedded within this corridor,
especially along the leading edge. Wind fields continue to support
long-lived updrafts and all hazards remain possible, especially
wind/tornadoes. The primary risk for large hail will accompany the
late-night supercells ahead of the mid-level speed max.

..Darrow.. 11/04/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040545
SWODY1
SPC AC 040544

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, large
hail, and wind damage, are likely today from the Southern Plains north-northeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. A
few of the tornadoes could be strong.

...Southern Plains to mid Mississippi Valley...

Strong upper trough is currently located over the Four Corners
region. This feature is forecast to advance into the southern
Rockies by the start of the day1 period, then shift into the
southern High Plains by 18z as a 90kt 500mb speed max translates
across northern Mexico/west TX into western OK. During the overnight
hours, the mid-level speed max should increase in excess of 100kt as
it moves into northwest MO. Latest model guidance suggests a surface
low will develop over northwest TX by daybreak, then track into
central OK by 18z, ultimately lifting into southern IA late, in
concert with the 500mb speed max.

Early this morning, leading edge of large-scale forcing appears to
be spreading across eastern NM into the TX High Plains.
Boundary-layer moisture is surging northwest into this region as LLJ strengthens in response to the approaching trough. Deeper convective
updrafts are now developing south-east of LBB, and this activity is
expected to increase in areal coverage/intensity, leading into the
start of the day1 period. Latest thinking is scattered-numerous
thunderstorms will be ongoing at sunrise ahead of the mid-level
speed max within a focused zone of low-level convergence. Upper 60s
surface dew points should advance into southern OK ahead of the
surface low and forecast soundings exhibit negligible inhibition
with substantial MLCAPE (>2000 J/kg) shortly after sunrise.
Additionally, 0-3 SRH should be quite strong (400 m2/s2) as
low-level warm advection will remain strong across the southern High
Plains due to a 50+kt LLJ. While numerous updrafts are likely early,
supercells are expected. Have increased severe probabilities across
this portion of the southern Plains to reflect the uncapped,
strongly sheared/buoyant profiles at the start of the period.
Tornadoes are possible with this activity, along with hail/wind.

Strong, dynamic system will eject across the central/southern Plains
and this will encourage a notable surface front/dry line into the
I-35 corridor by 20z, extending into north-central TX. Weak
inhibition should lead to at least scattered strong/severe
thunderstorms developing south along the front/dry line across TX,
while more concentrated thunderstorms will spread across OK toward
the Ozarks, due to focused low-level warm advection. Environmental
parameters strongly favor supercells, though a considerable amount
of convection may result in complex storm modes from OK into
MO/northwest AR. Tornadoes can be expected with this activity, some
possibly strong, along with some hail/wind threat.

Strong-severe convection will spread across central MO ahead of the
short wave late in the period where less unstable air mass will
begin to impede updraft strength. It's not entirely clear how far
organized severe will extend downstream, but weak buoyancy over the
mid MS Valley suggests this will be across northeast MO.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 11/04/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041254
SWODY1
SPC AC 041253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts,
are expected today into tonight from the Southern Plains into the
Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A high-amplitude mid/upper-level pattern will continue over the
CONUS, dominated by a trough now located from a low over northern
SK, to eastern MT, central WY, western CO, through another low over
western NM south of GNT, and across western Chihuahua to the central
Mexican Pacific Coast. A strong, basal shortwave trough was
apparent in moisture-channel imagery south through southwest of the
low, over the borderlands of southwestern NM and southern AZ. As
the shortwave trough pivots around the broader-scale flow field
today -- across west TX to the South Plains/Permian Basin regions --
the low should shift eastward roughly along I-40 to near TCC, then
lose definition near the TX line around 00Z. By 12Z, the shortwave
trough should become positively tiled and extend from eastern KS
across southwestern OK to the lower Pecos Valley of west TX,
somewhat ahead of the synoptic-scale trough.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed an outflow-reinforced warm-
frontal zone over southwest, south-central and east-central OK,
moving slowly northward. A surface low was drawn over west-central
TX near ABI, and is forecast to move northeastward along the
combined convective/outflow boundary today. By 00Z, the low should
be near PNC, with cold front across south-central/southeastern OK,
then roughly down the I-35 corridor in TX. The warm front should
extend from the low east-northeastward over central/northeastern MO.
By 12Z tomorrow, the low should reach the northern MO/southern IA
vicinity, with cold front to southeastern OK and east-central to
deep south TX.

...Southern Plains to mid Mississippi Valley...
A band of convection largely north of the warm front is moving
through central OK at this time, with marginal potential for severe
gusts or a tornado. See SPC mesoscale discussion 2201 for near-term
details.

Convection farther south along/ahead of the cold front is expected
to gradually organize as a QLCS through the remainder of the
morning, including near the fresh convective boundary trailing the
ongoing activity over OK. This should occur as the activity moves
obliquely across the warm front/outflow boundary preceding it, and
into a more-favorable, slowly northward-shifting boundary layer now
across southern OK and northwest/north-central TX. Given the
supportive low-level and deep-layer shear (with effective-shear
magnitudes commonly 45-55 kt and 200-400 J/kg effective SRH),
embedded mesovortices with tornado potential should exist, as well
as the typical threat for severe gusts locally maximized near
LEWP/bow formations. Due to the lack of a substantial EML and
related weak MLCINH in the free warm sector, gradual buildup of
convection is also expected ahead of the QLCS, with at least a few
warm-sector supercells ultimately evolving and interacting with the
outflow boundary. These would pose a threat for a few tornadoes, as
well as large hail and damaging gusts, in an environment
characterized by upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints, low LCL,
and enlarging hodographs.

The severe threats with the QLCS and foregoing supercells should
shift eastward and northeastward across the outlook area through the
period, with the convective band sweeping up cells just ahead of it.
Meanwhile the warm front will shift northward to near or even a bit
north of the I-44 corridor in northeastern OK/MO. Meanwhile
additional supercells may develop farther east in the northward-
expanding warm sector. The most favorable parameter space for
tornadoes from all this activity should be this afternoon and
evening from south-central and eastern OK into the Ozarks of
southern MO and northwestern AR, with a relatively maximized risk of significant (EF2+) tornado potential. Forecast soundings reasonably
depict enlargement of the preconvective hodographs from late
afternoon into evening over this region, with around 30-kt shear
vectors and 150-200 J/kg SRH just in the lowest 1/2 km.

The severe threat should persist into the mid Mississippi Valley
late tonight, gradually winding down as the projected inflow layer
becomes less unstable. The eastern bound remains uncertain, but
somewhat more room has been added on the marginal outlook from IL-AR
to account for that uncertainty. The backbuilding convective band
into north and central TX -- and the Arklatex tonight -- also will
pose a tornado and severe-gust threat, but with hodographs and deep
ascent somewhat weaker than farther north.

..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/04/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041613
SWODY1
SPC AC 041612

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1012 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TX...EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts,
are expected today into tonight from the Southern Plains into the
Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley.

...OK/TX/MO/AR...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough over the
southern Rockies, with a strong mid/upper level jet rounding the
base of the trough and moving into west TX. At the surface, the
primary boundary extends from central OK southward into west-central
TX. Strong southerly low-level winds to the east of the surface
boundary will maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass over
a relatively wide area, leading to a rather active severe weather
event later today as the upper speed max approaches.

Morning convection and associated boundaries are complicating the
forecast over central OK, leading to uncertainty how far west the
intense convection can form. Nevertheless, pockets of daytime
heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s will result in rapid
thunderstorm development by early afternoon across east-central OK
and parts of north TX. These storms will likely be a mix of
linear/bowing structures and discrete supercells. Forecast
soundings suggest low and deep layer shear profiles more than
sufficient for tornadoes, along with damaging winds and some hail.
Strong tornadoes will be possible. The activity will spread
northeastward into the evening into parts of western MO/AR, with a
continued risk of damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) along
the primary convective line, and discrete storms ahead of the line.

..Hart/Moore.. 11/04/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 042001
SWODY1
SPC AC 041959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts,
are expected this afternoon into tonight from the Southern Plains
into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley.

...20Z Update...
Ongoing tornado/damaging wind potential may further increase through
mid/late afternoon across eastern Oklahoma into far western
Arkansas/southwest Missouri, as well as parts of North Texas. This
will be somewhat focused by a sub-synoptic surface wave across
east-central Oklahoma, and within a zone of strengthening and
increasingly confluent/convergent 850 mb flow through early evening.
Farther to the west, severe potential will continue to gradually
diminish from west to east, with lowered severe probabilities across
central Oklahoma and western North Texas.

..Guyer.. 11/04/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024/

...OK/TX/MO/AR...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough over the
southern Rockies, with a strong mid/upper level jet rounding the
base of the trough and moving into west TX. At the surface, the
primary boundary extends from central OK southward into west-central
TX. Strong southerly low-level winds to the east of the surface
boundary will maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass over
a relatively wide area, leading to a rather active severe weather
event later today as the upper speed max approaches.

Morning convection and associated boundaries are complicating the
forecast over central OK, leading to uncertainty how far west the
intense convection can form. Nevertheless, pockets of daytime
heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s will result in rapid
thunderstorm development by early afternoon across east-central OK
and parts of north TX. These storms will likely be a mix of
linear/bowing structures and discrete supercells. Forecast
soundings suggest low and deep layer shear profiles more than
sufficient for tornadoes, along with damaging winds and some hail.
Strong tornadoes will be possible. The activity will spread
northeastward into the evening into parts of western MO/AR, with a
continued risk of damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) along
the primary convective line, and discrete storms ahead of the line.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050038
SWODY1
SPC AC 050036

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes (some strong), some hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts,
remain possible tonight from portions of eastern Texas into the
Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley.

...01z Update...

Well-defined mid-level circulation is currently located along the
TX/NM border, just west of AMA. This feature will begin to open up a
bit as it ejects into the central Plains. 100kt 500mb speed max is
forecast to translate into eastern KS by the end of the period and
this should encourage the surface low to track north-northeast into
southern IA by 05/12z. This evolution suggests the greatest
large-scale forcing will spread across northern portions of the risk
area overnight. Latest radar data supports this with an elongated
band of broken line segments/cells extending from central MO-western
AR-central TX. Over the last several hours the greatest
concentration of supercells has been noted from extreme northeast
TX-northwest AR-southwest MO. This remains the primary area of
concern this evening as this activity is colocated within the main
instability axis, and is strongly sheared. Tornadoes remain a
concern, especially with more discrete supercells, and damaging
winds may also be noted. Otherwise, large hail threat appears to be
diminishing a bit. With time, strong convection should gradually
spread northeast as the mid-level speed max/short wave approaches
the lower MO Valley.

..Darrow.. 11/05/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050535
SWODY1
SPC AC 050533

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND PARTS OF WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado or two and locally damaging winds may occur across a
portion of the Sabine to Lower Mississippi Valleys, and central to
southern Wisconsin.

...WI...

Strong mid-level speed max will translate across eastern KS into
southwest WI by 18z before advancing into ON later in the evening.
This feature will assist a weak surface low that is expected to
track from southern IA into southwest WI by early afternoon. Latest
model guidance suggests weak buoyancy will develop ahead of the
short wave and forecast soundings suggest shallow SBCAPE will
develop by 21z as surface temperatures warm into the upper 50s.
While surface parcels will struggle to attain levels necessary for
lightning, strongly sheared, shallow convection may exhibit signs of organization, or perhaps even some weak rotation. A brief, weak
tornado or some gusty winds may accompany this shallow convection
for a few hours this afternoon.

...Lower MS Valley...

Negligible height changes are expected during the day1 period as the
primary short-wave trough/speed max eject into the upper
Midwest/Great Lakes this afternoon. As a result, trailing front will
likely remain draped across the Mid South-lower MS Valley-lower
Sabine River Valley through the period. This boundary will serve as
the focus for potential convective development within an environment
that is not particularly unstable, but adequately sheared for
organized convection. Given the poor lapse rates, and the absence of appreciable forcing, only scattered, mostly weak convection is
expected. Even so, some risk for gusty winds and perhaps a brief
tornado are the primary concerns.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 11/05/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051251
SWODY1
SPC AC 051250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PORTION
OF THE SABINE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado or two and locally damaging winds may occur across a
portion of the Sabine to Lower Mississippi Valleys, and central to
southern Wisconsin.

...Synopsis...
Mid/upper-level longwave troughing has become well-established over
the western CONUS. That will persist through this and more outlook
periods, as a series of synoptic to large shortwave troughs
traverses the associated cyclonic-flow field. The leading such
perturbation -- now located from the central Plains south-
southwestward over the southern High Plains to far west TX -- will
eject northeastward and weaken. By 00Z, the residual, strongly
positively tilted trough should extend from a vorticity max over
western WI, across central/southwestern MO to central TX. The
perturbation will deamplify greatly overnight and accelerate to a
position near the western QC/ON border, Lake Huron and IN by 12Z.
Meanwhile, an upstream shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-
channel imagery over ID -- will dig southeastward and strengthen
greatly through the period. By 12Z, it should be oriented
northeast/southwest through a developing 500-mb low over the Four
Corners.

The 11Z surface analysis showed an elongated area of low pressure
from southern WI to northwestern MO, with cold front through central
OK and north-central/central TX. The front was preceded by an
extensive convective band and associated outflow boundary from
central IL to central AR, east TX, and deep south TX. By 00Z, the
front should catch up (or nearly so) to what remains of the
convective boundary, with the combined baroclinic zone extending
from a consolidated low over northern WI across the Mid-South region
to the northwestern Gulf shelf waters off TX. By 12Z, the front
should extend from Lower MI across western portions of KY/TN/MS to
southwestern LA and the northwestern Gulf.

...Sabine to Lower Mississippi Valleys...
The ongoing convective band, near the western edge of the "Marginal
Risk" area, should weaken overall through mid-morning. However, an
isolated damaging gust or brief tornado cannot be ruled out in the
meantime with any associated or preceding cell that may take
advantage of lingering favorable deep shear and high theta-e, in a northward-narrowing corridor.

After a relative lull of a few hours, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast along the boundary this afternoon into
early evening, with isolated damaging gusts and/or a tornado
possible. Afternoon boundary-layer destabilization is anticipated
ahead of the convective boundary, from both fragmented/cloud-
modulated surface heating and low-level theta-e advection. A
corridor of surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F will
persist an expand slightly northward ahead of the boundary. With no
antecedent EML and minimal MLCINH, this should offset modest
midlevel lapse rates enough to result in effectively uninhibited
buoyancy, supporting an increase in convective coverage and local
intensity this afternoon. Peak MLCAPE should range from around
500-800 J/kg over a narrow corridor of the Mid-South,
widening/increasing to around 1000-1500 J/kg over southern LA. By
contrast, lift along the boundary, and in the form of deep-layer
ascent preceding the weakening mid/upper trough, will be greater
over the Mid-South, until some nebulous point where too little
instability exists to support organized convection. The outlook has
been elongated northward somewhat to cover the marginal-buoyancy
plume near the Mississippi River.

...WI...
Isolated to widely scattered, shallow thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon, in an arc near the front and the organizing surface
low. A few cells may produce damaging gusts. A brief tornado also
may occur, especially with any cells that can linger within a narrow
zone of overlap between favorably, isallobarically backed near-
surface winds and weak boundary-layer instability. A low-confidence
and quite conditional scenario exists here, with abundant antecedent
clouds and precip likely to limit destabilization for most of the
day. Forecast soundings suggest enough large-scale ascent aloft to
cool midlevels a degree or two C, though lapse rates still will be
meager. Areas that can experience a couple hours of relatively
unimpeded heating may attain 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE.

..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/05/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051620
SWODY1
SPC AC 051619

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
LOUISIANA....

...SUMMARY...
Locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur across
a portion of the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and central to
southern Wisconsin.

...LA/MS...
A large upper trough is present today over the central US, with the
primary surface boundary extending from eastern AR southward into
central LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring along and
ahead of this boundary, including several storms exhibiting low and
mid level rotation. Winds aloft are expected to weaken through the
day, but there is a continued chance of isolated tornadoes for a few
hours late this morning and early afternoon. Therefore have added a
small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #2213 for further details
on this environment.

...AR/TN/KY/IN...
A narrow line of thunderstorms is noted along the boundary across
eastern AR. Several morning CAM solutions suggest this line may
maintain some character through the afternoon and it tracks
northeastward across parts of the mid MS Valley. Visible satellite
imagery shows breaks in the clouds across this region, providing
some heating and destabilization. Also, low level wind fields will
remain rather strong ahead of the convection. This may be
sufficient for locally gusty/damaging wind gusts this afternoon.

....WI...
A few low-topped showers and thunderstorms will likely form later
this afternoon near a deepening surface low over WI. Widespread
clouds will limit destabilization, but there is some potential for
locally gusty/damaging winds during the peak-heating period.

..Hart/Supinie.. 11/05/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051958
SWODY1
SPC AC 051957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur across
a portion of the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and central to
southern Wisconsin.

...20Z Update...
With the primary mid-level forcing moving away from the ArkLaMiss,
storm coverage should generally remain more isolated through the
remainder of the afternoon. Furthermore, regional VAD profiles
suggest low-level shear have been decreasing with time. Given these observational trends, tornado probabilities have been reduced in the
region.

The marginal risk across Wisconsin has been adjusted based on
surface observations. A line of shallow convection moving east
through western Wisconsin may produce isolated strong/damaging winds
as it moves into areas where at least muted heating has occurred.
KMKX VAD suggests strong enough flow in the lowest 1-2 km to support
this risk.

..Wendt.. 11/05/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024/

...LA/MS...
A large upper trough is present today over the central US, with the
primary surface boundary extending from eastern AR southward into
central LA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring along and
ahead of this boundary, including several storms exhibiting low and
mid level rotation. Winds aloft are expected to weaken through the
day, but there is a continued chance of isolated tornadoes for a few
hours late this morning and early afternoon. Therefore have added a
small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #2213 for further details
on this environment.

...AR/TN/KY/IN...
A narrow line of thunderstorms is noted along the boundary across
eastern AR. Several morning CAM solutions suggest this line may
maintain some character through the afternoon and it tracks
northeastward across parts of the mid MS Valley. Visible satellite
imagery shows breaks in the clouds across this region, providing
some heating and destabilization. Also, low level wind fields will
remain rather strong ahead of the convection. This may be
sufficient for locally gusty/damaging wind gusts this afternoon.

....WI...
A few low-topped showers and thunderstorms will likely form later
this afternoon near a deepening surface low over WI. Widespread
clouds will limit destabilization, but there is some potential for
locally gusty/damaging winds during the peak-heating period.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060035
SWODY1
SPC AC 060034

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected overnight.

...01z Update...

Strong short-wave trough continues ejecting northeast across the
upper Great Lakes region early this evening. This feature will top
the eastern US ridge over southern ON/QC toward sunrise, as the next
strong upper trough digs into the Four Corners. Associated surface
front has stalled across lower latitudes, but will continue to
advance into the OH Valley into the early parts of the day2 period.
As the primary focus for large-scale ascent shifts north of the
international border, lack of focus along the trailing front should
lead to only weak, and mostly shallow convection. While a few
updrafts may penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge,
conditions do not currently warrant severe probabilities the rest of
tonight.

..Darrow.. 11/06/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060532
SWODY1
SPC AC 060530

Day 1 Convective Outlook=20=20
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE KEYS
AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of brief tornadoes will be possible within outer bands of
Hurricane Rafael, from late morning into the evening, across the
Keys and the far southern Peninsula of Florida.

...Hurricane Rafael...

Dominant Bermuda High will prove instrumental in the upcoming track
of Hurricane Rafael. Over the next 36hr, Rafael is forecast to
continue its northwest trajectory across Cuba into the southeastern
Gulf Basin. Low-level shear will gradually increase across the Keys
into extreme southern FL, and outer convective bands will begin to
affect this portion of FL, especially later this afternoon/evening.
Current track (reference https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.g= ov__;!!DZ3fjg!4emcm8TJuC_0Q-wjxOBD0QocTcA-nLTF_nlBFayShxMKPrZBF4G2DzeQidNzs= g0Wf-Sr_lSH7Xd9rXIOyx8ym0saSCU$ ) suggests severe
probabilities will not need to be expanded north across the
Peninsula as strongest shear will remain offshore across the Gulf
Basin. Some tornado threat can be expected with strongest, more
organized convection, especially across the Keys.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 11/06/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061249
SWODY1
SPC AC 061248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of brief tornadoes will be possible within outermost
fringes of the circulation of Hurricane Rafael, from late morning
into the evening, across the Keys and the far southwestern Florida
Peninsula.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, mean troughing will remain over the Rocky
Mountain States as a strong subsynoptic trough -- now evident in moisture-channel imagery over the Four Corners region -- strengthens
to a closed cyclone. The associate 500-mb low is expected to become better-developed throughout the period as it closes off and
retrogrades south-southwestward across AZ. In response to these
developments, height rises are forecast across the southern Plains
and Gulf Coast region, while ridging also builds westward from the
Bermuda high. In turn, this should shift Hurricane Rafael westward
toward the central Gulf, following today's crossing of western Cuba,
per NHC forecast.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a frontal-wave low over ON north
of Lake Huron, with cold front across Lower MI, IN, western parts of
KY/TN/MS, central LA, and the shelf waters off the TX Gulf Coast.
Under height rises and weakening/largely parallel flow aloft, the
frontal segment south of about I-40 should become quasistationary
through the remainder of the period. Given those factors, weak
midlevel lapse rates, and negligible mid/upper support, associated thunderstorms should have an unconditional severe potential below 5%
for gusts and less than 2% for tornado, with no large-hail threat.

...FL Keys and vicinity...
Although Rafael will be pivoting more westward away from the region
than previous forecast cycles suggested, and is a relatively small
hurricane, the influence of ambient shear imparts a northeastward
tilt to the overall convective pattern. This will lead to the
passage of peripheral cells and perhaps (over the Lower Keys)
banding features. The track forecast also should result in the
largest low-level shear remaining west and south of EYW, but
still-favorable hodographs passing across the outlook area from this
afternoon into tonight. As such, the outlook lines are shifted
slightly westward, in keeping with NHC track-forecast trends, but
still kept at 5% "slight" levels over the Lower Keys for this cycle.

See latest NHC advisories for forecast track/intensity of Rafael,
and tropical-related watches/warnings.

..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/06/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061629
SWODY1
SPC AC 061628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of brief tornadoes will be possible within outermost
fringes of the circulation of Hurricane Rafael, through this
evening, across the Keys and the far southwestern Florida Peninsula.

...South Florida and the Keys...
Hurricane Rafael will track toward/across western Cuba tonight.
Model guidance continues to trend toward weaker low-level wind
fields over south FL and shunting the risk southwestward/offshore.
Will maintain the ongoing risk areas as CAM solutions show a few
discrete cells in the outer bands of the system later this afternoon
and evening. However, the overall risk appears to be lessening.

..Hart/Smith.. 11/06/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061944
SWODY1
SPC AC 061942

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of brief tornadoes will be possible within outermost
fringes of the circulation of Hurricane Rafael, through this
evening, across the Keys and the far southwestern Florida Peninsula.

...20Z Update...
No changes are required to the prior outlook. See the previous
discussion and MD #2214 for additional details.

..Wendt.. 11/06/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024/

...South Florida and the Keys...
Hurricane Rafael will track toward/across western Cuba tonight.
Model guidance continues to trend toward weaker low-level wind
fields over south FL and shunting the risk southwestward/offshore.
Will maintain the ongoing risk areas as CAM solutions show a few
discrete cells in the outer bands of the system later this afternoon
and evening. However, the overall risk appears to be lessening.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070042
SWODY1
SPC AC 070040

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of brief tornadoes remain possible within outermost fringes
of the circulation of Hurricane Rafael this evening.

...01z Update...

Hurricane Rafael has crossed Cuba and is moving northwest into the
southeast Gulf of Mexico. Center of circulation is about 125 mi
southwest of KEY, and the outer-most convective bands continue to
influence the Keys. Over the last few hours, 3km SRH has begun to
gradually decrease at BYX, suggesting that the greatest tornado
threat has likely peaked, and should continue to decrease through
the overnight hours. Will maintain tornado probabilities across
portions of south Florida, but this is primarily for this evening.

..Darrow.. 11/07/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070543
SWODY1
SPC AC 070542

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible later this evening/tonight across
parts of west Texas. Large hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps
a tornado or two are all possible.

...West Texas...

Strong upper low is digging southeast across the Four Corners
region, in line with latest model guidance. This feature will
advance across the southern Rockies during the day1 period, finally
approaching the southern High Plains by 08/12z. This eastward
ejection is due to an 80+kt 500mb speed max that will translate
through the base of the trough into far west TX by sunrise. As the
upper trough settles into the southern Rockies, cold boundary-layer
air will surge south across the High Plains. Currently, at 05z, a
sharp cold front extends from southwest KS-LBB-HOB-ROW. This
boundary will likely surge a bit south of 00z model guidance as its
current position is well ahead of forecast position. LLJ will
increase atop this boundary and low-level warm advection is expected
to lead to scattered convection, as elevated buoyancy should be more
than adequate for deep updrafts. Models do not exhibit strong
instability across the warm sector, but surface-based parcels do
become weakly inhibited by late afternoon, and SBCAPE could exceed
1000 J/kg across the Edwards Plateau into far west TX, south of the
wind shift. Forecast soundings favor supercells, but forcing will be
limited until the latter half of the period. While scattered
warm-advection storms may materialize during the day, the primary
concern will be later in the evening and overnight as large-scale
forcing increases ahead of the ejecting trough. Widespread
convection is expected to develop across the southern High Plains
and expand in areal coverage, modulated by a strengthening LLJ by
06z. Hail may be the primary concern, along with some wind gusts.
However, any surface-based storms will be adequately sheared for
some risk of tornadoes. An extensive convective/precip event should
materialize during the overnight hours across west TX into western
OK which will likely influence convective mode.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 11/07/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071250
SWODY1
SPC AC 071248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a tornado or two
are possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas.

...Synopsis...
A closed and temporarily cut-off, mid/upper-level cyclone was
drifting eastward to southeastward over the Desert Southwest and
Four Corners regions, and centered near INW. A large, well-
developed, baroclinic-leaf formation was apparent in IR and
moisture-channel imagery in its eastern semicircle, across much of
NM and CO, and extending across the central High Plains. The 500-mb
low is forecast to move slowly to central NM through the period,
while a shortwave trough now north of the low pivots around the southern/southeaster side of the cyclone tonight. Associated height
falls and large-scale ascent will gradually overspread west TX and
the southern High Plains, both in the form of DCVA nearer to the
cyclone core, and warm advection over much of the southern Plains to
its east.

Meanwhile, per latest NHC forecasts, Hurricane Rafael will continue
to move westward away from the Keys and Cuba, toward the central/
south-central Gulf. This will occur south of an arc of mid/upper
ridging extending from the subtropical Atlantic across FL and the
north-central to southwestern Gulf.

At the surface, the key feature for today's forecast will be a cold
front -- drawn at 11Z from the Ohio Valley across central AR, to
near a TXK-ERV line and becoming stationary to warm westward to a
low near the Rio Grande, south of 6R6. Another low was drawn
between MAF-FST, and warm frontogenesis apparent to its east-
southeast likely will persist and result in effective northward
displacement of the western segment of the main frontal zone with
time today. As the aforementioned shortwave trough pivots toward
the region, surface cyclogenesis is expected over the lower Pecos Valley/Permian Basin region of west TX, consolidating the previously
elongated, multi-centered low-pressure area. The low should move
northward or north-northeastward tonight, toward the Caprock region
of northwest TX, with a cold front to its south extending to the Big
Bend region. Meanwhile, the warm-frontal segment should advance
northward over west-central TX, though considerable mesoscale
uncertainty remains as to how far, given:
1. The strength of the ambient continental/polar airmass to its
north and
2. Probable reinforcement by convection/precip on the cool side
much of today.

...West and central TX...
Predominantly elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop today
and gradually increase in coverage while moving northward over
central and northwest TX, in a weakly capped plume of strengthening
warm advection, moisture transport and ascent to LFC. Isolated
severe hail is possible with this activity, though lack of
substantial buoyancy should limit overall severe potential to
marginal in coverage and intensity.

As that process continues, a diurnally heated slot of return-flow boundary-layer air, containing increasingly unstable, surface-based
parcels, will spread from south-central TX, the Rio Grande Valley
and the southern Hill Country northwestward toward the frontal and
cyclogenetic regimes. Diurnal heating and moist advection are
expected to yield favorable warm-sector destabilization. Surface
dewpoints increasing into the low 60s F in northern areas and upper
60s to near 70 F over southern parts of the outlook will yield peak/preconvective MLCAPE in the 1500-2000 J/kg range ahead of the
cold front and south of about I-20, with sharp reductions across the
front toward the upper cyclone, and northward into the ambient
rain-cooled airmass.

Meanwhile, large-scale ascent will continue to increase gradually on
both sides of the front, peaking late overnight. These processes
will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development from
late afternoon into tonight, along the front and over higher terrain
in the Big Bend region. Some of this activity may be supercellular
for a few hours, with all severe hazards possible. Forecast
hodographs indicate some tornado potential, especially near the low
and if a discrete storm can interact with a favorably aligned
segment of the front while maintaining warm-sector surface inflow. Aforementioned mesoscale uncertainties preclude a more-focused,
unconditional 5% tornado area at this time. The delay in the
strongest forcing for ascent after the peak buoyancy and the
potential for evolution to extensively messy modes also renders
tornado potential quite conditional. Convective coverage overall
should increase to scattered/numerous, expand to both sides of the
front as cooling aloft overspreads the region, and render much
messier convective mode. Large hail will be possible on either side
of the front, especially with relatively sustained/discrete cells,
and damaging gusts will be most probable with convection moving
into/through the warm sector.

..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/07/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071626
SWODY1
SPC AC 071624

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes
are possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas.

...West and Central TX...
A large upper low will remain over the Four Corners states through
tonight, with model guidance suggesting a rather strong shortwave
trough will rotate through the base of the low and move into West TX
overnight. The primary surface boundary currently extends E-W
across central TX and will lift northward through the day, allowing
very moist air to stream into parts of western and west-central TX.


Current indications are that storms will become more numerous
through the afternoon and evening across the region. Vertical shear
profiles over a rather large area would support rotating updrafts,
but stable near-surface conditions will limit the severe threat to
the north of the front. Along and to the south of the boundary,
forecast soundings suggest some concern for supercells capable of
damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes this evening. Have
extended the SLGT farther northeast into the ABI area where morning
CAM solutions show the warm front and several intense storms later
today.

..Hart/Lyons.. 11/07/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 072000
SWODY1
SPC AC 071959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes
are possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas.

...20Z Update...
Primary change to the outlook was to adjust tornado probabilities
along the surface boundary in central Texas. Storm coverage still
appears it will be isolated, but low-level shear would favor some
tornado risk. Elsewhere, only minor adjustments were made to the
general thunder area. See the previous discussion for additional
details.

..Wendt.. 11/07/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024/

...West and Central TX...
A large upper low will remain over the Four Corners states through
tonight, with model guidance suggesting a rather strong shortwave
trough will rotate through the base of the low and move into West TX
overnight. The primary surface boundary currently extends E-W
across central TX and will lift northward through the day, allowing
very moist air to stream into parts of western and west-central TX.


Current indications are that storms will become more numerous
through the afternoon and evening across the region. Vertical shear
profiles over a rather large area would support rotating updrafts,
but stable near-surface conditions will limit the severe threat to
the north of the front. Along and to the south of the boundary,
forecast soundings suggest some concern for supercells capable of
damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes this evening. Have
extended the SLGT farther northeast into the ABI area where morning
CAM solutions show the warm front and several intense storms later
today.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080040
SWODY1
SPC AC 080038

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes
remain possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas.

...01z Update...

Strong upper low has settled into southeast AZ, in line with model
guidance. This feature will soon begin to eject east as the main
mid-level speed max rotates through the base of the trough across
northern Mexico into far West TX/southeast NM by sunrise.
Considerable number of thunderstorms have developed well ahead of
this feature across the Southern Plains, driven in large part by
low-level warm advection. LLJ will strengthen markedly this evening
across northwest TX into southwest KS, aiding widespread elevated
thunderstorms within a diffluent high-level flow regime. Leading
edge of large-scale forcing, with the upper trough, is spreading
across eastern NM, and this will eventually spread across the high
Plains, further aiding convection.

00z sounding at MAF exhibited substantial MUCAPE (1300 J/kg) along
the cool side of the boundary, as did FWD but with weaker mid-level
lapse rates. Primary corridor for surface-based convection is
expected from near the international border (DRT), across the
Edwards Plateau, into the Big Country tonight. A few supercells are
currently noted along this zone, and this should persist much of the
night. Earlier thoughts regarding the potential for severe continue.

..Darrow.. 11/08/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080550
SWODY1
SPC AC 080548

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early/mid evening
across parts of central to north Texas. A couple of tornadoes will
be possible, along with isolated hail and damaging winds.

...Texas...

Strong upper trough, currently located over the southern Rockies,
will begin to eject northeast later today as 500mb speed max
translates across far West TX into the central High Plains. This
upper low will progress into northeast CO/northwest KS by the end of
the period. This evolution will result in 150-180m, 12hr height
falls across the central High Plains, but negligible changes will be
noted south of the Red River where severe probabilities are
currently expressed. Boundary layer is quite stable across the High
Plains into western OK/northwest TX. As a result, surface low will
struggle as it is drawn north into the region of stronger dynamics,
late in the period. Strong LLJ will also focus well north of the
more buoyant air mass, primarily across northern OK into western KS.
In the absence of stronger forcing, the primary mechanism for
thunderstorm development across the warm sector will be weak frontal convergence acting on an environment that is moist and minimally
inhibited. Some weak warm advection may also contribute to scattered
convection atop the cooler boundary layer.

Considerable amount of convection is currently ongoing from the
Edwards Plateau, north into southern KS. This activity will
gradually propagate east and should be ongoing at the start of the
period. Forecast soundings suggest modest buoyancy will evolve
across central TX into the southern portions of north-central TX by
mid afternoon. Some supercell threat can be expected as deep-layer
shear will be more than adequate for sustaining deep, rotating
updrafts. Given the lack of large-scale support, severe coverage may
remain somewhat isolated. Hail, wind, and perhaps a tornado or two
can be expected with this activity.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 11/08/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081254
SWODY1
SPC AC 081252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill
Country and parts of central/east Texas through this evening. The
most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential appears to be
over north-central Texas.

...Synopsis...
The mid/upper-level pattern features a closed, temporarily cut-off, synoptic-scale cyclone, initially centered over central NM. As a
strong, basal shortwave trough pivots northeastward across eastern
NM and the TX Panhandle today, the 500-mb low will shift east-
northeastward toward CAO by 00Z. Overnight, the low should track north-northeastward, reaching the GLD vicinity by 12Z. Height falls
should occur over central/north TX today, then becoming neutral to
slightly rising overnight.

The 11Z surface analysis showed a frontal-wave low near SWW, with a
cold front south-southwestward between DRT-6R6. A warm front was
drawn from the low through some rain-cooled air to near MWL, then east-southeastward over southern fringes of the Metroplex to between
LFK-ESF. The low is expected to move northward to near the
northeastern corner of the TX Panhandle by 00Z and occlude, while
the occluded/cold front reaches western OK, north-central/central
TX, to near LRD. The warm front should drift northward over north- central/northeast TX, with its progress slowed by increasing
precip/convection to its north. By 12Z tomorrow, the low should get
stacked with the 500-mb center over northwestern KS, with the cold
front reaching east TX and the shelf waters off the TX Gulf Coast.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Rafael is forecast to remain well-removed from
land this period, moving generally westward over the central to
west-central Gulf then slowing/meandering after this period. See
NHC advisories for latest forecast track/intensity info on Rafael.

...North to central TX...
An ongoing area of convection over parts of north TX and southern OK
is expected to shift northward over increasingly elevated and less-
unstable inflow parcels and weaken through midday. Meanwhile,
closer to the cold front, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop over the next several hours through early afternoon,
evolving into a nearly solid convective band with embedded
supercells and bow/LEWP formations possible. This activity should
shift eastward over central and north TX through early evening,
offering at least marginal potential for all severe hazards.

Meanwhile, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible in the
warm sector and along/north of the warm front. This activity should
move northward to northeastward. Any sustained, relatively discrete
cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm
sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate
with a threat for all hazards (hail, damaging to severe gusts and
mesoscale peak in tornado potential) also present. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest/
southeast very near or even across the DFW Metroplex. This will
yield an increased severe threat from north to south into more-
unstable inflow air, and within the southern part of the relatively high-vorticity gradient itself. Given the superposition of these
foci and the expected favorable parameter space, the north-central
TX part of the outlook is being upgraded for all hazards this cycle.

Upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints already are present in the
warm sector, and will shift north slowly, in step with the warm
front, before the main north-south band overtakes the region. This
should occur during the afternoon when low-level, warm-sector
instability is maximized away from convection. Despite modest lapse
rates aloft (manifest in mid/upper-level stable layers sampled by
the 12Z FWD sounding), a northwestward-narrowing, triangular
corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg peak MLCAPE is expected. Veering winds
with height are forecast to continue, with hodograph curvature/size
largest along the warm front, and enough deep shear (effective-shear
magnitudes 35-45 kt in central/north TX, weakening southward and
eastward) to support occasional supercell structures. Overnight,
supportive large-scale ascent and the elevated LLJ each should shift
northward away from the area, while the main band of convective-
scale forcing shifts into east TX and weakens.

..Edwards/Bentley.. 11/08/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081638
SWODY1
SPC AC 081637

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill
Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening.
The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is
expected to be across North Texas.

...North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma...
Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across
the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the
Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with
warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near
70 F.

Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms
within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far
north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface
low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered
convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon.

Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and
potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon
farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any
sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to
surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting
with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This
includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well
as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is
expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across
the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central
toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening,
with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight.

..Guyer/Dean.. 11/08/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081957
SWODY1
SPC AC 081955

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill
Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening.
The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is
expected to be across North Texas.

...20Z Update...
Relatively minor adjustments have been made to the outlook based on
the progression of the surface boundary. Some uptick in coverage and
intensity has been noted in southwestern Oklahoma into western North
Texas. See MD #2220 for additional mesoscale details within that
region.

..Wendt.. 11/08/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/

...North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma...
Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across
the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the
Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with
warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near
70 F.

Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms
within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far
north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface
low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered
convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon.

Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and
potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon
farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any
sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to
surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting
with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This
includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well
as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is
expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across
the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central
toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening,
with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 090036
SWODY1
SPC AC 090035

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms, with a potential for hail and severe wind
gusts, will be possible this evening across parts of east Texas.

...East Texas...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over far
northeastern New Mexico, with a broad band of maximized mid-level
moisture located from the Ark-La-Tex extending northwestward into
the central Plains. At the southern end of this band, scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing in parts of east Texas, ahead of a front
this is moving into east Texas. These storms are located along and
near an axis of instability, where surface dewpoints are in the
lower to mid 70s F. The RAP has MLCAPE maximized around 1600 J/kg in
southeast Texas, with the strongest instability extending northward
to just southeast of Dallas. A cluster of storms is located to the
north of the instability maximum, along an axis with locally higher
surface dewpoints near a max in precipitable water. RAP forecast
soundings near the max have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with some
directional shear in the lowest kilometer. The combination of
instability and shear may be enough to continue a marginal severe
threat this evening, mainly with the more discrete cells ahead of
the front. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary
threats. The severe threat is expected to diminish by late evening.

..Broyles.. 11/09/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 090551
SWODY1
SPC AC 090549

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible today across a broad corridor
surrounding the lower to mid Mississippi Valley, but no severe
storms are expected.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level low will move northeastward into the central Plains
today, as an associated 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet translates
through the lower to mid Missouri Valley. At the surface, a low will
move northward through the central Plains, as an occluded front
extends southeastward into the Ozarks. From there, a
quasi-stationary front will be located from western Arkansas into
southeast Texas. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of these two boundaries, with surface dewpoints ranging from the 50s F across the
Ozarks to near 70 F in the lower Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms
will be possible across parts of this moist airmass today, but
instability will be too weak for a severe threat.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 11/09/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091226
SWODY1
SPC AC 091224

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected over the conterminous U.S.
through tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
The mid/upper-level pattern across the CONUS will lose amplitude
through the period, as a synoptic-scale cyclone now centered near
GLD weakens, ejects northeastward, and rejoins the prevailing
westerlies. The associated 500-mb low should reach central NE by
00Z, then across northwestern IA by 12Z tomorrow. Meanwhile, the
NHC forecasts Hurricane Rafael to move slowly west-northwest across
the west-central Gulf through tonight, remaining far from land,
while weakening due to deep shear and dry-air involvement.

In between, a plume of partly modified return-flow air, marginally moist/unstable for deep convection, will support isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms in a broad swath from the TX/LA Gulf Coast
to parts of IA/IN and much of IL. Effective inflow to convection in
this swath should be elevated over the mid Mississippi Valley and
similar latitudes, where deep shear is greatest. As shear weakens
with southward extent from the Mid-South to the coast, especially
south of a warm front now over north-central LA, surface-based
parcels amid weak lapse rates will prevail. By afternoon, the warm
front will angle northward into parts of eastern AR, and MLCAPE
should range from around 500 J/kg over the Mid-South to near 1000
J/kg just inland from the coast. Organized severe potential will be
stunted by lack of stronger lift and shear where buoyancy is
sufficient.

..Edwards/Bentley.. 11/09/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091608
SWODY1
SPC AC 091606

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1006 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Discussion...
An upper low centered over the northwestern Kansas area this morning
will shift northeastward through the period, reaching the
northwestern Iowa vicinity by 10/12Z. As it does, an
occluded/weakening surface low will follow a similar trajectory.

As the system lifts northward, and the surface cold front weakens, a moist/weakly sheared warm sector will prevail over the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Gulf Coast region. Farther
north, into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley states, stronger
shear will reside, but with only weak/elevated instability. As
such, though showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected ahead
of this system, convection will remain weak, and severe weather is
not anticipated.

..Goss/Dean.. 11/09/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091957
SWODY1
SPC AC 091955

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...20Z Update...
Modest changes were made to the general thunder area based on
current observations. Otherwise, the previous forecast reasoning
remains valid.

..Wendt.. 11/09/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024/

...Discussion...
An upper low centered over the northwestern Kansas area this morning
will shift northeastward through the period, reaching the
northwestern Iowa vicinity by 10/12Z. As it does, an
occluded/weakening surface low will follow a similar trajectory.

As the system lifts northward, and the surface cold front weakens, a moist/weakly sheared warm sector will prevail over the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Gulf Coast region. Farther
north, into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley states, stronger
shear will reside, but with only weak/elevated instability. As
such, though showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected ahead
of this system, convection will remain weak, and severe weather is
not anticipated.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 100049
SWODY1
SPC AC 100048

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity remains possible tonight
in a narrow corridor across the lower Mississippi into lower Ohio
Valleys.

...01Z Update...
Although probably hindered to some extent by the presence of
Tropical Storm Rafael over the central Gulf of Mexico, low-level
moistening is ongoing within a southerly return flow around the
western periphery of a prominent surface high slowly shifting
eastward across the Atlantic Seaboard. This will continue
overnight, as a mid-level cyclone emanating from the Southwest
continues a slow northeastward acceleration across and northeast of
the middle/lower Missouri Valley.

Within this regime, upper support has weakened for a slow moving
cluster of thunderstorms now overspreading central Louisiana into
southwestern Mississippi. However, even as this convection
diminishes, instability appears sufficient to maintain a risk for
additional thunderstorm activity, aided by persistent weak low-level
warm advection along/north of its stalling outflow boundary
overnight.

Farther north, weak conditional instability is probably maximized
within a narrow plume of higher precipitable water content advecting
across the lower Mississippi through lower Ohio Valleys. Based on
various model output, it appears possible that large-scale forcing
for ascent, near the southern periphery of the leading edge of
stronger mid-level height falls associated with the mid-level low,
may contribute to a band of weak thunderstorm development overnight.

..Kerr.. 11/10/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 100517
SWODY1
SPC AC 100515

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
today through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Models indicate that low-amplitude ridging will build in mid/upper
levels across the northern Mexican Plateau through portions of the
southern Great Plains and eastern Gulf Coast states during this
period. Otherwise, the leading edge of a stronger/more progressive
belt of westerlies across the mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to
approach the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast.

Downstream, it appears that a remnant low, which has recently
emerged from the Southwest, will accelerate rapidly eastward across
the Upper Midwest through the lower Great Lakes, in advance of an
approaching short wave impulse digging southeast of the Canadian
Prairies. This may be accompanied by appreciable surface
cyclogenesis across and northeast of the lower Great Lakes region by
late tonight. While the trailing cold front will be preceded by a
moistening southerly low-level return flow across the lower Ohio
Valley into lower Great Lakes region, forecast soundings indicate
that weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and a residual
cool/stable surface-based layer will inhibit destabilization through
much of the evolving warm sector.

...Mid South/Tennessee Valley vicinity...
South of the more substantively deepening surface troughing to the north-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley, models do indicate that
low-level moistening may contribute to a corridor of boundary-layer destabilization across northern Mississippi through western
Tennessee and adjacent western Kentucky by early this afternoon.
This probably will be limited by warm layers aloft, but CAPE may
exceed 500 J/kg and contribute to gradually intensifying
thunderstorm development through mid/late afternoon. Beneath 35-50
kt west-southwesterly flow in the 700-500 mb layer, deep-layer shear
may contribute to organization. However, thermodynamic profiles do
not appear particularly conducive to severe hail, and modest to weak
low-level flow and lapse rates still seem likely to limit the risk
for severe wind gusts, before storms weaken this evening.

..Kerr/Thornton.. 11/10/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101228
SWODY1
SPC AC 101226

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears minimal through tonight.

...Synopsis...
General upper-air pattern deamplification is expected over most of
the CONUS through the period, except over:
1. The West Coast (height falls ahead of an approaching,
high-amplitude synoptic trough) and
2. The Great Lakes (height falls preceding the ejection of the
cyclone now centered over northwest IA). The formerly
cut-off/larger cyclone is rejoining the prevailing westerlies, and
will accelerate eastward and weaken over the Great Lakes. This will
happen as a strong shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel
imagery over eastern/southern AB -- digs east-southeastward toward
Lake Superior by 12Z tomorrow, while forming a closed or nearly
closed 500-mb low.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rafael continues to weaken as its low-
level center and deep convection get more displaced from each other,
per NHC discussions. The circulation is forecast to continue
weakening, as the low-level vortex loops around the central/west-
central Gulf today, then shift southwestward thereafter. Refer to
NHC advisories for latest forecast track/intensity of Rafael.

In between those features, a plume of moist low-level air, cooling
northward at the surface and aloft, will support isolated to
scattered thunderstorms, near and east of an occluded/cold frontal
zone drawn at 11Z from southern IL across westernmost portions of
KY/TN, western MS, central/southwestern LA, and TX coastal waters.

...Gulf Coast to Ohio Valley...
Overall severe potential will be limited by lack of stronger shear
in the south (closer to the coast) where low-level theta-e is
largest, and lack of surface-based instability in the north. Some
model soundings suggest that surface-based parcels and marginal deep
shear (effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40-kt range) may overlap
this afternoon over portions of the Tennessee Valley to lower Ohio
Valley. While this will need to be monitored, lack of backing in
low-level flow will limit both convergence and hodograph size, amid
weak deep-layer lapse rates and potentially messy convective mode.
At this time, the severe threat appears too low and conditional for
an outlook area.

..Edwards/Bentley.. 11/10/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101617
SWODY1
SPC AC 101616

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears minimal through tonight.

...Discussion...
An upper low now crossing the Upper Mississippi Valley is forecast
to gradually devolve into an open wave, as it crosses the Upper
Great Lakes region and shifts across the Ottawa River and St.
Lawrence Valleys, and Lower Great Lakes through the end of the
period. As this occurs, a surface cold front will similarly
progress eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and Midwest region
today, reaching the central and southern Appalachians by 11/12Z
(Sunday morning).

Ahead of the front, a relatively moist boundary layer but weak lapse
rates aloft will permit only weak warm-sector instability. While a
more tropical low-level airmass will reside in the vicinity of the
Lower Mississippi Valley, in part due to east-southeasterly
advection associated with the presence of Tropical Storm Rafael
sitting nearly stationary over the central Gulf, weak shear
precludes appreciable severe potential. Farther north, stronger
flow aloft will be offset by lower theta-e/weak CAPE as compared to
areas farther south. As such, severe weather is not anticipated.

..Goss/Lyons.. 11/10/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101955
SWODY1
SPC AC 101954

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears minimal through tonight.

...20Z Update...
Other than minor changes to the general thunder area based on
current observations, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid.

..Wendt.. 11/10/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024/

...Discussion...
An upper low now crossing the Upper Mississippi Valley is forecast
to gradually devolve into an open wave, as it crosses the Upper
Great Lakes region and shifts across the Ottawa River and St.
Lawrence Valleys, and Lower Great Lakes through the end of the
period. As this occurs, a surface cold front will similarly
progress eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and Midwest region
today, reaching the central and southern Appalachians by 11/12Z
(Monday morning).

Ahead of the front, a relatively moist boundary layer but weak lapse
rates aloft will permit only weak warm-sector instability. While a
more tropical low-level airmass will reside in the vicinity of the
Lower Mississippi Valley, in part due to east-southeasterly
advection associated with the presence of Tropical Storm Rafael
sitting nearly stationary over the central Gulf, weak shear
precludes appreciable severe potential. Farther north, stronger
flow aloft will be offset by lower theta-e/weak CAPE as compared to
areas farther south. As such, severe weather is not anticipated.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110051
SWODY1
SPC AC 110050

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms will remain low across much of the U.S.
through tonight.

...01Z Outlook Update...
Boundary-layer destabilization beneath the mid-level cold core now
approaching southwestern Ontario and the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay
vicinity has remained quite weak, with warmer layers aloft tending
to minimize lightning production in widely scattered ongoing
convection. Probabilities for additional convection capable of
producing lightning will become increasingly negligible as the upper
impulse progresses into Ontario through 03-05Z.

Otherwise, low-level moistening on southerly return flow has
contributed to a corridor of weak pre-frontal boundary-layer
destabilization across the lower Mississippi into lower Ohio
Valleys. Beneath weak mid-level troughing now shifting east of the middle/lower Mississippi Valley, forcing for ascent may be
sufficient to support some further increase in weak thunderstorm
development this evening across northeastern Mississippi into
portions of south central Kentucky. This will tend to advect east-northeastward into a less unstable environment as
boundary-layer instability wanes to the west with the loss of
daytime heating, leading to diminishing potential for thunderstorms
late this evening into the overnight hours.

..Kerr.. 11/11/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110521
SWODY1
SPC AC 110520

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
today through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Models indicate that a modestly amplified wave within the
mid-latitude westerlies across the eastern Pacific will split while
progressing inland of the Pacific coast during this period. One
emerging smaller-scale perturbation is forecast to contribute to
cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian Rockies, while another
impulse digs inland across the Sierra Nevada into the southern Great
Basin by late tonight. In lower-levels a cold front may precede the
trailing short wave through much of the West, advancing into the
Southwest and approaching the southern Rockies by daybreak Tuesday.

As downstream ridging develops eastward through interior North
America, it appears that mid-level troughing will amplify to its
east, as one notable embedded short wave digs across the lower Great
Lakes vicinity through the northern Atlantic Seaboard. This is
forecast to be accompanied by a reinforcing cold intrusion southeast
of the Upper Midwest through much of the Northeast, Ohio and
Missouri Valleys. A preceding front is likely to advance through
much of the southern Mid Atlantic, while stalling/weakening over the
Gulf Coast states.

...Southeast...
In advance of the lead cold front, models suggest that a mid-level
perturbation will be in the process of accelerating east of the
southern Appalachians by 12Z this morning. It appears that forcing
for ascent may be accompanied by some risk for thunderstorm
development near the coastal Carolinas at the outset of the period.
However, guidance suggests that the more substantive destabilization
and higher probabilities for thunderstorm initiation will generally
focus offshore of coastal areas during the mid to late morning.

...Pacific Northwest into northern Sierra Nevada...
Beneath a tongue of relatively cool mid-level air (-26 to -28C
around 500 mb) forecast to spread inland of the coast during the
day, destabilization may become sufficient to support convection
capable of producing lightning across coastal Washington/Oregon into
the western slopes of the Cascades, and perhaps along the western
slopes of the Sierra Nevada.

..Kerr/Thornton.. 11/11/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111632
SWODY1
SPC AC 111631

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.

...Discussion...
A progressive large-scale regime will persist with troughing
prevalent over the West and Great Lakes to Northeast, with upper
ridging over the Great Plains. Over the middle Gulf Coast, isolated
to widely scattered, episodic thunderstorms will be possible near an
inverted trough and convergence zone in low levels, extending
northeastward from the weakening, post-tropical remains of Rafael. A
few strong storms may occur near coastal southeast Louisiana, but
near-land severe potential should remain limited.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/11/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111925
SWODY1
SPC AC 111923

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.

...20z Update...
No forecast changes are required, and the previous forecast
(outlined below) remains on track.

..Moore.. 11/11/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024/

...Discussion...
A progressive large-scale regime will persist with troughing
prevalent over the West and Great Lakes to Northeast, with upper
ridging over the Great Plains. Over the middle Gulf Coast, isolated
to widely scattered, episodic thunderstorms will be possible near an
inverted trough and convergence zone in low levels, extending
northeastward from the weakening, post-tropical remains of Rafael. A
few strong storms may occur near coastal southeast Louisiana, but
near-land severe potential should remain limited.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 120048
SWODY1
SPC AC 120047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible through
tonight.

...01Z Update...

...Pacific Coast...
A mid-level tongue of cold air (including 500 mb temperatures of -24
to -28C) continues to migrate inland of the Pacific coast. It
appears that the axis of coldest air is in the process of shifting
to the east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades. However, latest
model output suggests that the mid-level temperatures may remain
cold enough to support instability sufficient for a continuing risk
of occasional weak convection capable of producing lightning, mainly
to the west of the Cascades, through about 06-08Z.

...Lower Great Lakes...
Occasional lightning flashes have been evident with convection
developing beneath a lower/mid-level cold pool associated with a
digging short wave trough across southern Ontario into the lee of
Lakes Ontario and Erie. However, with diurnal cooling underway and
low-level cold advection ongoing to the lee of the lower Great
Lakes, forecast soundings suggest that this activity is unlikely to
persist beyond another hour or so.

..Kerr.. 11/12/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 120534
SWODY1
SPC AC 120532

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas South
Plains and Panhandle vicinity this evening, perhaps accompanied by
some risk for severe weather.

...Synopsis...
The westerlies appear likely to remain a bit more progressive across
the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into western North America than
farther downstream, from near the Atlantic Seaboard through the
Atlantic. Within this regime, another significant mid-level trough,
with at least a couple of embedded short wave perturbations, is
forecast to approach the Pacific coast later today through tonight.

As this occurs, a fairly vigorous perturbation within the southern
portion of a splitting preceding trough is likely to continue east
of the southern Great Basin, across and east of the southern Rockies
by daybreak Wednesday. An associated cold front probably will
overtake modest lee surface troughing across central and southern
portions of the high plains by late tonight. Before it does,
boundary-layer moisture return in a narrow plume emanating from the
Rio Grande Valley, beneath steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse
rates, might contribute to a corridor of weak to modest
destabilization by late this afternoon across the Texas South Plains
into Panhandle vicinity.

...Southern Great Plains...
Near the leading edge of a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air
forecast to advect north-northeastward through southern portions of
the high plains, models indicate that differential surface heating
may contribute to a strengthening low-level baroclinic zone across
parts of the Texas South Plains and Panhandle by late this
afternoon. This will probably become a focus for strengthening
near-surface warm advection by early this evening, downstream of the
short wave impulse progressing across the southern Rockies. This is
likely to coincide with increasing low-level moisture return, which
might include boundary-layer dew points as high as the lower 60s F
near the immediate vicinity of the surface boundary, southward
through the Texas South Plains.

With regard to potential for severe storm development late this
afternoon into tonight, the signal remains muted in the latest high
resolution ensemble output and associated machine learning guidance.
However, given the potential for at least a narrow corridor of
modest boundary-layer destabilization, which may include mixed-layer
CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg, large-scale forcing for ascent
and strengthening shear appear conducive to organized convective
development. There appears a window of opportunity for the
evolution of one or two boundary-layer based supercells across parts
of the Texas South Plains into Panhandle, before a more general
increase in thunderstorm development ensues northeastward across
parts of Oklahoma and Kansas later tonight. Rooted within an
increasingly elevated warm advected regime, forecast soundings
suggest minimal potential for a continuing severe hail threat, once
any possible boundary-layer based convective development diminishes.

..Kerr/Thornton.. 11/12/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121254
SWODY1
SPC AC 121252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the
Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity this
evening, perhaps accompanied by some risk for hail and gusty winds.

...Southern High Plains...
An upper trough over the Great Basin will advance eastward across
the Rockies today, reaching the Plains late tonight into early
Wednesday morning. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature will
encourage modest surface cyclogenesis across parts of the
northern/central High Plains. Low-level moisture will return
northward today over portions of the southern High Plains, although
its depth and quality will remain limited. It appears unlikely that
convection will develop this afternoon across northwest TX into the
OK/TX Panhandles, as a cap and weak instability should inhibit
initiation.

A somewhat better opportunity for thunderstorms will exist this
evening across this area, mainly around/after 00-04Z, as warm
advection and lift associated with a strengthening low-level jet
increases, and as a surface cold front overtakes the lee trough.
While MUCAPE is expected to remain rather weak (generally 500-1000
J/kg or less), strong deep-layer shear will support organized
updrafts with any sustained convection. Isolated hail appears to be
the main threat, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain
slightly elevated. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds may also
exist. The window for severe hail should remain small in space and
time this evening, as convection will likely grow upscale fairly
quickly. Even so, small hail may occur farther north/east into parts
of KS and OK overnight into early Wednesday morning.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 11/12/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121625
SWODY1
SPC AC 121624

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the
Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity this
evening, possibly accompanied by some risk for hail and gusty winds.

...Southern High Plains...
An upper-level trough over the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners at
midday will continue eastward toward the south-central High Plains
tonight. Gradual lee-side cyclogenesis will occur particularly late
today into tonight, with a sharpening southern High Plains
dryline/lee trough, with an eastward-moving Pacific cold front that
will overtake the dryline/lee trough from west-to-east tonight.
Modest-caliber low-level moisture return will occur
north-northwestward across the southern High Plains, with surface
dewpoints tending to remain limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F
into this evening.

It still appears likely that deep convective potential across
northwest Texas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles will remain
limited through peak heating, owing to the moisture limitations and
a persistent capping inversion. Isolated thunderstorm development
will become more probable after sunset as lift associated with a
strengthening low-level jet increases, and as the surface cold front
overtakes the lee trough.

While MUCAPE is expected to remain rather weak (generally 500-1000
J/kg or less), strong deep-layer shear will support organized
updrafts with any sustained convection. Isolated hail appears to be
the main threat, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain
slightly elevated. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds may also
exist. The window for severe hail should remain small in space and
time this evening, as convection will likely grow upscale fairly
quickly. Even so, small hail may occur farther north/east into parts
of Kansas and Oklahoma overnight into early Wednesday morning.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/12/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121959
SWODY1
SPC AC 121958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the
Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity into far
southwestern Kansas this evening, possibly accompanied by some risk
for hail and gusty winds.

...20Z Update...
The primary change to this outlook was to expand Marginal Risk
probabilities northward into portions of far southwestern KS. Here,
guidance consensus depicts 700-1000 J/kg MUCAPE amid elongated
hodographs, which may support an instance or two of marginally
severe hail with the more persistent, discrete updrafts that can
form. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track.

..Squitieri.. 11/12/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024/

...Southern High Plains...
An upper-level trough over the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners at
midday will continue eastward toward the south-central High Plains
tonight. Gradual lee-side cyclogenesis will occur particularly late
today into tonight, with a sharpening southern High Plains
dryline/lee trough, with an eastward-moving Pacific cold front that
will overtake the dryline/lee trough from west-to-east tonight.
Modest-caliber low-level moisture return will occur
north-northwestward across the southern High Plains, with surface
dewpoints tending to remain limited to the upper 40s/lower 50s F
into this evening.

It still appears likely that deep convective potential across
northwest Texas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles will remain
limited through peak heating, owing to the moisture limitations and
a persistent capping inversion. Isolated thunderstorm development
will become more probable after sunset as lift associated with a
strengthening low-level jet increases, and as the surface cold front
overtakes the lee trough.

While MUCAPE is expected to remain rather weak (generally 500-1000
J/kg or less), strong deep-layer shear will support organized
updrafts with any sustained convection. Isolated hail appears to be
the main threat, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain
slightly elevated. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds may also
exist. The window for severe hail should remain small in space and
time this evening, as convection will likely grow upscale fairly
quickly. Even so, small hail may occur farther north/east into parts
of Kansas and Oklahoma overnight into early Wednesday morning.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 130039
SWODY1
SPC AC 130037

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the
Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity into far
southwestern Kansas this evening, possibly accompanied by some risk
for hail and isolated severe gusts.

...Southern High Plains Into Far Southwest Kansas...
A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the
southern Rockies, with a plume of mid-level moisture extending from
northern Mexico northeastward across the southern Plains into the
mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, an axis of maximized
low-level moisture is located across west Texas, where surface
dewpoints are in the 55 to 60 F range. As low-level moisture
advection continues across the southern High Plains this evening, a
pocket of instability is expected to develop over the eastern Texas
Panhandle, where the RAP is forecasting MUCAPE to approach 1500 J/kg
by midnight. The instability, along with increasing large-scale
ascent, associated with the approaching mid-level trough, will
likely support isolated thunderstorm development near the
instability axis late this evening. Convective coverage is expected
to expand as cells move eastward across southern Kansas and western
Oklahoma during the early overnight period. Forecast soundings near
the instability axis at 06Z have an inversion from the surface to
850 mb suggesting that the storms will be elevated. Above the
inversion, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7 C/km,
with effective shear near 40 knots. This may be enough for rotating
cells capable of producing isolated large hail. A chance for
isolated severe gusts will also exist, but this will be a lesser
threat.

..Broyles.. 11/13/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 130530
SWODY1
SPC AC 130528

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across the
lower Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe gusts. A
potential for severe gusts could also develop along parts of the
West Coast.

...Lower Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern Plains
today, as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the system, over the
lower to mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass
will be in place over the lower Mississippi Valley where surface
dewpoints will be from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. As moisture
advection continues this morning into afternoon, a pocket of
instability is forecast to develop over parts of eastern Louisiana
and western Mississippi. Thunderstorms appear likely to develop
within this pocket of instability around midday, with additional
storms developing further to the east in the vicinity of the central
Gulf Coast. RAP and NAM forecast soundings in the lower Mississippi
Valley suggest that MLCAPE could peak across southeast Louisiana in
the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range around 21Z. At that time near the
instability max, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be near 30 knots. Some
directional is evident below 850 mb but lapse rates at low and
mid-levels are forecast to be poor. This environment could support a
marginal wind-damage threat associated with rotating storms or
semi-organized line segments. A marginal tornado threat could also
develop if any rotating storms can move through the stronger
instability while remaining discrete. The marginal severe threat may
continue into early evening as a line segment moves into the central
Gulf Coast.

...West Coast...
A shortwave trough is forecast to approach the West Coast today and
move inland late this afternoon into this evening. Ahead of the
trough, strong large-scale ascent will support isolated thunderstorm development along the coasts of northern California, Oregon and
Washington. Model forecasts suggest that flow at 850 mb will be
around 30 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates peaking near 7 C/km.
This environment could be favorable for marginally severe gusts
mainly after 21Z as the trough approaches the coast. The potential
for isolated severe gusts may continue into the evening, as the
trough moves inland.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 11/13/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131300
SWODY1
SPC AC 131258

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across the
lower Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe gusts
and perhaps a tornado or two. Occasional severe winds may also
develop along parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest.

...Lower Mississippi Valley...
Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today
across parts of the lower MS Valley into the Mid-South as an upper
trough over the Plains continues eastward towards the OH Valley.
Primary surface low and better forcing associated with this upper
trough are forecast to remain well north of the inland-advancing
warm sector. Even so, scattered surface-based thunderstorms should
develop by this afternoon as a remnant/weak surface low off the LA
Coast moves slowly inland. Filtered daytime heating of the moist
low-level airmass should result in modest instability developing by
this afternoon, even though mid-level lapse rates will remain poor
(see 12Z JAN/LIX soundings). Low-level southerly flow will not be
overly strong across the lower MS Valley, but gradual veering and
strengthening of winds with height through mid levels should support
sufficient deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization.

A few marginal supercells/clusters may pose an isolated threat for
strong to damaging winds as they spread eastward across LA/MS this
afternoon and evening. Enough low-level shear should also be present
to foster some updraft rotation and the threat for a tornado or two,
with an isolated severe threat potentially continuing into tonight
across parts of southwest AL and vicinity. The warm sector will
become increasingly pinched off with northward extent in MS and
western TN, with convection generally expected to outpace the
low-level moisture return. Given the expected mismatch of stronger forcing/shear farther north and better instability to the south,
have opted to maintain the Marginal Risk this update, with some
expansion based on latest guidance trends.

...Coastal Pacific Northwest...
Cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -26C at 500 mb) and
modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates associated with an
eastward-moving upper trough will help support weak instability
today across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest (reference 12Z
UIL sounding). Persistent large-scale ascent across this region will
support both low-topped cells and bands of convection moving
eastward through this afternoon and early evening. Given the
forecast strength of the low-level winds, some of this activity may occasionally produce strong to severe wind gusts, and perhaps small
hail. Tornado potential remains unclear, as low-level flow will have
a tendency to veer more to southwesterly through the day, which
should limit 0-1 km SRH.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 11/13/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131635
SWODY1
SPC AC 131633

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1033 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across the Lower
Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe wind gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Occasional severe winds may also
develop along parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest.

...Lower Mississippi Valley...
Have upgraded portions of southeast Louisiana and far southern
Mississippi for the possibility of a couple of tornadoes and
localized wind damage.

While multi-layer cloud cover has generally persisted, small pockets
of clearing/scattering have occurred within the warm sector with
several surface observations with temperatures near/just above 80 F.
Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today,
while an upper trough over the Plains continues eastward towards the
Ohio Valley. Primary surface low and better forcing associated with
this upper trough will initially be well north of the
inland-advancing warm sector. However, scattered surface-based
thunderstorms should develop and become more common this afternoon
as the remnant/weak surface low off the Louisiana Coast moves slowly
inland. Low-level shear (through 1-3km AGL) should increase through
late afternoon into this evening, particularly in vicinity of the
surface low/triple point. A few supercells/clusters will pose
potential for damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes.

...Coastal Pacific Northwest...
Associated with an eastward-moving upper-level trough, cold
mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -26C at 500 mb) and modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates will yield weak instability today
across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest (see 12Z UIL
sounding). Persistent large-scale ascent across this region will
support both low-topped cells and bands of convection moving
eastward through this afternoon and early evening. Given the
forecast strength of the low-level winds, some of this activity may occasionally produce strong to severe wind gusts, and perhaps small
hail. Tornado potential remains unclear, as low-level flow will have
a tendency to veer more to southwesterly through the day, which
should limit 0-1 km SRH.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/13/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131957
SWODY1
SPC AC 131956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may still occur today across the Lower Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe wind gusts and potentially a couple of tornadoes. Occasional severe winds may also
develop along parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track. Slight westward trimming of
severe probabilities were made to account for the eastward
progression of the surface trough. Otherwise, low-level WAA
preceding the surface trough, in tandem with vertically veering wind
profiles, may support stronger storms with occasional bouts of
low-level rotation. As such, a couple of damaging gusts or isolated
tornadoes remain possible into this evening. A brief tornado also
still cannot be ruled out over portions of coastal Pacific
Northwest.

..Squitieri.. 11/13/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024/

...Lower Mississippi Valley...
Have upgraded portions of southeast Louisiana and far southern
Mississippi for the possibility of a couple of tornadoes and
localized wind damage.

While multi-layer cloud cover has generally persisted, small pockets
of clearing/scattering have occurred within the warm sector with
several surface observations with temperatures near/just above 80 F.
Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward today,
while an upper trough over the Plains continues eastward towards the
Ohio Valley. Primary surface low and better forcing associated with
this upper trough will initially be well north of the
inland-advancing warm sector. However, scattered surface-based
thunderstorms should develop and become more common this afternoon
as the remnant/weak surface low off the Louisiana Coast moves slowly
inland. Low-level shear (through 1-3km AGL) should increase through
late afternoon into this evening, particularly in vicinity of the
surface low/triple point. A few supercells/clusters will pose
potential for damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes.

...Coastal Pacific Northwest...
Associated with an eastward-moving upper-level trough, cold
mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -26C at 500 mb) and modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates will yield weak instability today
across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest (see 12Z UIL
sounding). Persistent large-scale ascent across this region will
support both low-topped cells and bands of convection moving
eastward through this afternoon and early evening. Given the
forecast strength of the low-level winds, some of this activity may occasionally produce strong to severe wind gusts, and perhaps small
hail. Tornado potential remains unclear, as low-level flow will have
a tendency to veer more to southwesterly through the day, which
should limit 0-1 km SRH.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 140049
SWODY1
SPC AC 140047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND ALONG PARTS OF THE WEST COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, associated with a marginal threat for
tornadoes and wind damage, will be possible across the central Gulf
Coast this evening. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible
along parts of the West Coast.

...Central Gulf Coast...
A mid-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is moving into
the Ark-La-Tex. Further to the east, a lead shortwave trough is
moving through the central Gulf Coast states, where a moist airmass
is in place. Surface dewpoints across the central Gulf Coast region
range from the mid 70s F near the coast to the mid 60s F over much
of southwestern Alabama. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near
the moist axis. The stronger cells are expected to move
northeastward across far southern Mississippi and into southwest
Alabama this evening. RAP forecasts soundings in far southwest
Alabama at 03Z have MLCAPE near 750 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 35 to
40 knot range, and some directional shear in the low to mid-levels.
This should be sufficient for a marginal severe threat this evening.
A potential for isolated severe gusts may exist with semi-organized
line segments. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible with
the more discrete rotating cells.

...West Coast...
A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over southwest
Oregon and northern California. Mid-level moisture associated with
the trough, large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates are
contributing to thunderstorm potential along the coast of northern
California, Oregon and Washington. Some of the storms may become
strong enough to mix low-level winds of about 35 to 40 knots down to
the surface. A few gusts could approach severe limits this evening.

..Broyles.. 11/14/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 140543
SWODY1
SPC AC 140542

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible along the coasts of
far eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina tonight,
posing a risk of tornadoes and severe gusts.

...Eastern Carolinas/Eastern Gulf Coast...
A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move eastward into the
southern Appalachians today, and into the Carolinas tonight. A few
strong storms will be possible today across the Florida Panhandle.
Low-level moisture advection ahead of the trough will occur today in
the Carolinas. By evening, a moist airmass, with surface dewpoints
in the 60s F, will be in place over much of the eastern Carolinas. Thunderstorms are expected to form early this evening in far eastern
South Carolina, in response to warm advection and strong large-scale
ascent. This convection is forecast to move northeastward along the
coast of North Carolina from mid evening into the overnight. Strong
low-level shear should support a marginal severe threat near the
coast. A brief tornado and a few strong gusts will be possible. The
greatest tornado threat should occur after midnight in the vicinity
of Cape Hatteras, where low-level shear is forecast to become
maximized in the 06Z to 09Z time frame.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 11/14/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141251
SWODY1
SPC AC 141250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty
winds and perhaps a tornado may occur across parts of coastal North
Carolina this evening/tonight.

...Coastal Carolinas...
A pronounced upper trough will continue eastward today from the
OH/TN Valleys and Midwest towards the southern Mid-Atlantic. As this
occurs, a weak surface/coastal low will develop in response across
the eastern Carolinas this afternoon/evening and adjacent coastal
waters tonight. Most guidance suggests this surface low will remain
very near/along the immediate coast, or just offshore. Recent RAP
runs are a notable exception, showing a slightly more inland track.
Regardless, sufficient low-level moisture and related weak
boundary-layer instability should be present by this evening across
parts of coastal NC and the Outer Banks. Any surface-based
convection that can be sustained tonight in the favorably sheared
environment may pose an isolated threat for strong to severe wind
gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Greater severe potential remains
evident just offshore and over the Gulf Stream, but there still
appears to be enough severe potential over land to maintain the
Marginal Risk with this update.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 11/14/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141627
SWODY1
SPC AC 141625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds
and perhaps a tornado could occur across parts of coastal North
Carolina this evening/tonight.

...Coastal Carolinas...
Within an amplifying upper flow regime over the CONUS, an upper
trough over the Midwest/Upper Great Lakes will progress
east-southeastward toward the central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas through tonight. In response, steady surface cyclogenesis (9-10mb/12hr) is expected tonight along the coastal
Carolinas, with some potential inland advancement of the offshore
warm/moist sector where middle 60s F surface dewpoints exist in
proximity to the Gulf Stream.

Scenario-typical short-term model characteristics and biases are
experientially apparent in latest available guidance, with recent
NAM runs most optimistic for near-coastal/just-inland cyclogenesis
and destabilization, potentially too much so as compared to more
offshore GFS/ECMWF guidance given the expected increasingly
prevalent precipitation inland tonight. Regardless, some
near-coastal potential will exist tonight for a couple of supercells/severe-caliber severe storms potentially capable of wind
damage and/or a tornado, with the North Carolina Outer Banks having
the primary vulnerability late this evening into the overnight.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/14/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141936
SWODY1
SPC AC 141935

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds
and perhaps a tornado could still occur across parts of coastal
North Carolina this evening/tonight.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Some of the
latest CAM guidance continues to show potential for surface-based
storms to impinge on the coastal Carolinas tonight, accompanied by
an isolated damaging gust/tornado threat.

..Squitieri.. 11/14/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/

...Coastal Carolinas...
Within an amplifying upper flow regime over the CONUS, an upper
trough over the Midwest/Upper Great Lakes will progress
east-southeastward toward the central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas through tonight. In response, steady surface cyclogenesis (9-10mb/12hr) is expected tonight along the coastal
Carolinas, with some potential inland advancement of the offshore
warm/moist sector where middle 60s F surface dewpoints exist in
proximity to the Gulf Stream.

Scenario-typical short-term model characteristics and biases are
experientially apparent in latest available guidance, with recent
NAM runs most optimistic for near-coastal/just-inland cyclogenesis
and destabilization, potentially too much so as compared to more
offshore GFS/ECMWF guidance given the expected increasingly
prevalent precipitation inland tonight. Regardless, some
near-coastal potential will exist tonight for a couple of supercells/severe-caliber severe storms potentially capable of wind
damage and/or a tornado, with the North Carolina Outer Banks having
the primary vulnerability late this evening into the overnight.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 150034
SWODY1
SPC AC 150032

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds
and perhaps a tornado could still occur across parts of coastal
North Carolina this tonight.

...01z Update...

Mid-level speed max digging across the southern Appalachians will
translate across the Carolinas tonight. This feature will induce
cyclogenesis along a coastal boundary, and the deepening low should
track northeast, just off the NC coast later this evening. Weak
convection is currently noted along the wind shift from southeast SC
into extreme southern NC. As the front sharpens, this activity may
continue to deepen and lightning is expected to develop as updrafts
penetrate colder temperatures. Earlier thoughts regarding a low risk
for severe continue. Strongly sheared environment remains conducive
for updraft organization, and there is some potential near-coastal
convection could briefly attain severe levels before moving
offshore. Even so, any severe threat will remain isolated.

..Darrow.. 11/15/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 150527
SWODY1
SPC AC 150525

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities are low today.

...Discussion...

Thunderstorm probabilities are less than 10 percent across the CONUS
today.

Strong upper trough is advancing inland along the Pacific Coast
early this morning. Substantial mid-level height falls will spread
across the Great Basin/southwestern US ahead of this feature as a
strong 500mb speed max translates into southern UT. Cooling profiles
and steepening lapse rates favor weak, shallow convection north of
the jet. However, buoyancy is forecast to be very weak and updrafts
should struggle to attain levels necessary for lightning discharge.

Strengthening/deepening offshore flow across the Carolinas favor the
primary focus for deep convection being well east of land by the
start of the period.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 11/15/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151241
SWODY1
SPC AC 151240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential should remain low today.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Convection producing lightning is expected to remain offshore from
the NC/SC Coast today, as an upper trough continues eastward over
the western Atlantic. Across the western CONUS, an amplified upper
trough/low is forecast to persist through the period while moving
slowly eastward. While cold mid-level temperatures will accompany
this feature and an occasional lightning flash may occur from parts
of CA into the Great Basin, low-level moisture and instability
should remain quite limited. Accordingly, overall thunderstorm
potential appears less than 10 percent.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/15/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151612
SWODY1
SPC AC 151611

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale upper
trough from WA southward into CA, and it is forecast to move east
into the Interior West through tonight. Cold mid-level temperatures
(-28 to -31 deg C per the Reno, NV and Medford, OR 12 UTC raobs,
respectively) will foster fleeting pockets of scant instability and
support an occasional lightning flash with convection on the
windward side of the southern Sierra Nevada through early afternoon.
Elsewhere, a stray lightning flash may occur over the Great Basin
mainly later today but overall coverage is expected to be less than
10 percent. Mostly tranquil weather conditions will prevail across
the Great Plains eastward to the East Coast.

..Smith.. 11/15/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 152001
SWODY1
SPC AC 151959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
through tonight.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.

..Squitieri.. 11/15/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a large-scale upper
trough from WA southward into CA, and it is forecast to move east
into the Interior West through tonight. Cold mid-level temperatures
(-28 to -31 deg C per the Reno, NV and Medford, OR 12 UTC raobs,
respectively) will foster fleeting pockets of scant instability and
support an occasional lightning flash with convection on the
windward side of the southern Sierra Nevada through early afternoon.
Elsewhere, a stray lightning flash may occur over the Great Basin
mainly later today but overall coverage is expected to be less than
10 percent. Mostly tranquil weather conditions will prevail across
the Great Plains eastward to the East Coast.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 160031
SWODY1
SPC AC 160029

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Threat for lightning remains low tonight.

...01z Update...

Deep upper trough is advancing across the interior West early this
evening. Cooling profiles and steepening mid-level lapse rates have
contributed to weak buoyancy north of the main jet. As a result,
scattered weak convection is currently noted from the San JOAQUIN
Valley, across southern NV into southwest UT, along the surging cold
front. Most of this activity will remain too shallow for lightning
discharge, but a few flashes of lightning have been noted with the
deepest updrafts. Nocturnal cooling will lead to weaker updrafts and
the prospect for thunderstorms remains low tonight.

..Darrow.. 11/16/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 160540
SWODY1
SPC AC 160539

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains
northeastward into the western Great Lakes.

...Discussion...

Seasonally strong upper trough is advancing across the western US
late this evening. This feature is forecast to bifurcate with a
notable northern short wave expected to shift into the upper MS
Valley late, while a southern branch settles south across the lower
CO River Valley. Strongest mid-level height falls will spread across
the northern Plains/upper MS Valley during the latter half of the
period, and this should encourage low-level warm advection to focus
across the upper Great Lakes as LLJ strengthens into western WI by
17/00z.

Latest model guidance does not suggest significant boundary-layer destabilization ahead of the synoptic front, with 0-3km lapse rates
expected to remain rather weak from KS, northeast into WI. While
frontal convergence will contribute to isolated convection, the
primary focus for deep, sustained updrafts will be across WI where
the strongest forcing/low-level warm advection will be noted.
Primary concern for lightning will be with elevated activity during
the later half of the period, though a few flashes could be noted
with trailing frontal showers.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 11/16/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161236
SWODY1
SPC AC 161234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Within large-scale upper troughing over the western CONUS, a
shortwave trough should move eastward across the northern Plains and
Canadian Prairie provinces through the period. A related surface low
over the northern Plains this morning will develop generally
northeastward into western Ontario by late tonight. Low-level
warm/moist advection will occur ahead of these features across parts
of the Upper Midwest through much of the period. While instability
is expected to remain rather muted, sufficient MUCAPE for elevated
convection may exist by late evening into the overnight hours across
this region. Overall lightning coverage will probably tend to be
rather isolated given the weak instability forecast.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/16/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161629
SWODY1
SPC AC 161628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
Morning water-vapor imagery depicts a midlevel shortwave trough
tracking eastward from eastern MT into the Dakotas. This feature
will continue eastward across the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies
into the overnight/early morning hours. In the 04-12Z time frame,
associated cooling aloft atop a cool/stable boundary layer will
contribute to weak elevated instability across the Upper Midwest.
Given strong low-level warm advection and midlevel ascent preceding
the trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible.

Farther south, a separate low-level jet will promote a band of
showers over the Upper TX Coast during the overnight hours. Related
low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak instability,
though dry air aloft should generally limit lightning potential.

..Weinman.. 11/16/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161955
SWODY1
SPC AC 161953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...Discussion...
Added a small thunderstorm area over eastern KS/lower MO Valley for
weak thunderstorm activity that will probably persist for a couple
more hours. Elsewhere, the forecast was not changed.

..Smith.. 11/16/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024/

...Synopsis/Discussion...
Morning water-vapor imagery depicts a midlevel shortwave trough
tracking eastward from eastern MT into the Dakotas. This feature
will continue eastward across the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies
into the overnight/early morning hours. In the 04-12Z time frame,
associated cooling aloft atop a cool/stable boundary layer will
contribute to weak elevated instability across the Upper Midwest.
Given strong low-level warm advection and midlevel ascent preceding
the trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible.

Farther south, a separate low-level jet will promote a band of
showers over the Upper TX Coast during the overnight hours. Related
low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak instability,
though dry air aloft should generally limit lightning potential.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 170053
SWODY1
SPC AC 170051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening into the overnight
hours from northeast Iowa into Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan. This activity will be elevated, driven by cooling aloft
ahead of the eastward advancing upper trough, and low/midlevel warm
advection. Severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 11/17/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 170533
SWODY1
SPC AC 170531

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY MONDAY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts
of western and central Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening
through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and
possibly a few tornadoes.

...Western/Central TX into Southwest OK and vicinity...

A potent upper trough over northwest Mexico will become negatively
tilted as it ejects east/northeast into the southern High Plains
today and tonight. As this occurs, an 80+ kt southwesterly 500 mb
speed max will overspread western TX late in the period, with a
broader area of 50-60 kt southwesterly mid/upper flow across much of
the southern Plains. Strong height falls are forecast after 06z
across western/central TX into OK. In response, a deepening surface
low is expected to develop over the Permian Basin/TX South Plains by
late evening into the early overnight hours. The low will shift
northeast into southwest OK by 12z Monday.

Increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport low/mid
60s F dewpoints north and west across central/western TX and much of
OK. By late evening, strong forcing for ascent will begin to
overspread eastern NM into western TX and areas of showers and
thunderstorms are expected to increase in the vicinity of the
deepening surface low, as well as northeast along the warm front
extending across western north TX into OK. As the upper trough
ejects, a 40+ kt low-level jet will overspread the region in the
03-06z time frame. A QLCS is expected to develop ahead of an
eastward-advancing cold front, bringing a risk for severe storms
overnight into early Monday.

While the low-level warm advection regime will transport 60s F
dewpoints across the region, poor low and midlevel lapse rates will
limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, robust forcing and
strong deep-layer flow will support a risk for severe wind gusts.
Furthermore, modest directional shear coupled with rapidly
increasing wind speeds with height will result in enlarged, looping
low-level hodographs. Additionally, as the low-level jet increases,
0-1 km SRH will increase to around 200-400 m2/s2. This should
support some potential for a few tornadoes within line-embedded
mesovortex formations, especially in the 7-12z time frame from north-central/western north TX into southwest OK.

At least some risk will likely extend northward into central OK
where a warm front will be oriented east/northeast near the
I-40/I-44 corridor near the end of the forecast period. Isolated
strong gusts and perhaps a tornado may occur across this area near
daybreak, though confidence is lower compared to points further
south.

..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/17/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171253
SWODY1
SPC AC 171252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts
of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and
continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe wind
gusts and a few tornadoes.

...Southern Plains...
An upper trough/low over northwest Mexico and AZ this morning will
move eastward today and eventually eject northeastward across the
southern High Plains late tonight through early Monday morning. A
rather strong mid-level jet (70-100 kt at 500 mb) and focused
large-scale ascent will overspread much of west TX into southwest OK
as this upper trough acquires a negative tilt. This will aid in the
development and subsequent deepening of a surface low across
northwest TX into western OK by 06-12Z Monday morning. A 50-65 kt
southerly low-level jet is also expected to develop late tonight
across the southern Plains, which will aid in the continued
northward transport of low-level moisture. Even though surface
dewpoints are forecast to increase into at least the mid 60s, poor
lapse rates aloft should tend to limit the degree of instability
that can develop across the warm sector tonight.

Even with weak forecast instability (MLCAPE potentially up to
500-1000 J/kg) amid moist adiabatic lapse rates at low/mid levels,
current expectations are for a band of thunderstorms to develop
along/near a surface cold front across west TX from this evening
into the early overnight hours. This band of convection will be
aided by strong ascent associated with the ejecting upper trough. As
the line of thunderstorms encounters somewhat better instability
across west-central/northwest TX, it will likely strengthen early
Monday morning while posing a threat for scattered severe winds
given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow. Rapidly
increasing winds and modest veering with height through low levels
will support enlarged hodographs, with corresponding enhanced 0-1 km
SRH (upwards of 200-400 m2/s2). This ample low-level shear should
support a threat for a few tornadoes with circulations embedded
within the east/northeastward-advancing QLCS.

A warm front will extend east-northeastward from the surface low
across west-central/central OK towards the end of the period early
Monday morning (09-12Z). While both low-level and deep-layer shear
will be quite strong, it remains unclear whether sufficient
instability will be present to support surface-based convection and
an appreciable severe threat across this area. Have therefore made
no changes to the northern edge of the Marginal/Slight Risks with
this update.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/17/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171632
SWODY1
SPC AC 171630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts
of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and
continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe wind
gusts and a few tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low/trough
over northwest Mexico with a downstream ridge centered over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. A mid-level vorticity maximum near the
middle part of the Gulf of California will pivot east into Chihuahua
by mid evening while the larger-scale trough becomes negatively
tilted and moves northeastward into the southern High Plains. In
the low levels, cyclogenesis over northern Mexico will gradually
evolve today before the surface low deepens tonight reaching the
northwest TX/western OK vicinity at the end of the period.
Seasonably moist air via southeasterly flow from the western Gulf
will advect into west TX before a Pacific front sweeps eastward
across the Chihuahuan Desert and portions of the southern High
Plains tonight. An attendant warm frontal zone will advance
northward from north TX into OK late.

...Southern Great Plains...
The 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX observed sounding showed an adequately
moist/deep moist layer featuring a mean mixing ratio of 12.6 g/kg.
The richer low-level moisture, featuring dewpoints in the mid-upper
60s as of late morning, is currently near the I-35 corridor from the
Metroplex and areas south/southeast. Moisture advection will
contribute to gradual destabilization through this evening across
parts of west TX northeastward into southwest OK despite
considerable cloud cover through the day. As an intense 100-kt
500-mb speed max moves from Chihuahua into west TX overnight,
large-scale ascent will favor the development of scattered
thunderstorms initially developing near the Permian Basin vicinity
and becoming more widespread as very strong low-level warm advection
attendant to an intensifying LLJ develops tonight. Model guidance
indicates 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the destabilizing warm sector.
A forced band of storms will likely evolve tonight across west TX
and rapidly move northeast in the area southeast of the surface low
track. As the squall line matures, the propensity for severe gusts
will probably increase despite relatively poor lapse given the
intense flow expected to develop. It remains uncertain if cellular
development will occur either ahead of the line or be loosely
maintained in parts of the larger band of storms. Nonetheless,
elongated and enlarged hodographs will favor a risk for scattered
severe gusts and possibly a tornado risk, especially as the squall
line encounters greater moisture from west-central TX northeastward
into southwest OK late.

..Smith/Weinman.. 11/17/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171956
SWODY1
SPC AC 171955

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts
of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and
continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe
gusts and a few tornadoes.

...20Z Update...

...Southern Plains...
General forecast outlined in the previous discussion remain valid,
with the cyclone currently entering northwest Mexico expected to
continue eastward across northern Mexico before then ejecting more northeastward across the southern High Plains late tonight/early
tomorrow morning. A strong mid-level jet will accompany this system,
with 90-100 kt of 500-mb flow spreading across west TX and into
southwest OK by early tomorrow. An intense low-level jet will
develop ahead of this wave, with 60+ kt at 850-mb likely stretching
from the TX Hill Country through central OK by 12Z Monday.

Modest low-level moisture is still anticipated ahead of this system.
Current surface analysis places the mid 60s dewpoints along and
southeast of a line from PVJ in south-central OK to north of DRT in
the Edwards Plateau. This area of greater low-level moisture will
continue to advect northwestward throughout the day and evening,
ahead of the approaching wave and associated surface low. Surface
analysis also reveals a stationary boundary from END in
north-central OK southwestward to just west of INK in the TX Trans
Pecos. This boundary will likely provide the favored corridor for
surface low progress late this evening and overnight.

A strongly forced band of thunderstorm is still anticipated,
beginning around 04-06Z in the Permian Basin vicinity, with this
band then expected to rapidly move northeastward just ahead of the
surface low, reaching central OK by 12Z. Intense low-level kinematic
fields will precede this line, with strong flow associated with the
mid-level jet as well. Resulting fast storm motion and downward
momentum transfer supports the potential for severe gusts, despite
the relatively modest thermodynamic environment. Highest probability
for severe gusts is over northwest TX and far southwest OK from 09Z
to 12Z Monday. A tornado risk will accompany this line as well, with
the highest tornado probability in the same location and time as the
greatest severe-wind threat.

..Mosier.. 11/17/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low/trough
over northwest Mexico with a downstream ridge centered over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. A mid-level vorticity maximum near the
middle part of the Gulf of California will pivot east into Chihuahua
by mid evening while the larger-scale trough becomes negatively
tilted and moves northeastward into the southern High Plains. In
the low levels, cyclogenesis over northern Mexico will gradually
evolve today before the surface low deepens tonight reaching the
northwest TX/western OK vicinity at the end of the period.
Seasonably moist air via southeasterly flow from the western Gulf
will advect into west TX before a Pacific front sweeps eastward
across the Chihuahuan Desert and portions of the southern High
Plains tonight. An attendant warm frontal zone will advance
northward from north TX into OK late.

...Southern Great Plains...
The 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX observed sounding showed an adequately
moist/deep moist layer featuring a mean mixing ratio of 12.6 g/kg.
The richer low-level moisture, featuring dewpoints in the mid-upper
60s as of late morning, is currently near the I-35 corridor from the
Metroplex and areas south/southeast. Moisture advection will
contribute to gradual destabilization through this evening across
parts of west TX northeastward into southwest OK despite
considerable cloud cover through the day. As an intense 100-kt
500-mb speed max moves from Chihuahua into west TX overnight,
large-scale ascent will favor the development of scattered
thunderstorms initially developing near the Permian Basin vicinity
and becoming more widespread as very strong low-level warm advection
attendant to an intensifying LLJ develops tonight. Model guidance
indicates 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the destabilizing warm sector.
A forced band of storms will likely evolve tonight across west TX
and rapidly move northeast in the area southeast of the surface low
track. As the squall line matures, the propensity for severe gusts
will probably increase despite relatively poor lapse given the
intense flow expected to develop. It remains uncertain if cellular
development will occur either ahead of the line or be loosely
maintained in parts of the larger band of storms. Nonetheless,
elongated and enlarged hodographs will favor a risk for scattered
severe gusts and possibly a tornado risk, especially as the squall
line encounters greater moisture from west-central TX northeastward
into southwest OK late.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 180038
SWODY1
SPC AC 180036

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts
of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and
continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe
gusts and a few tornadoes.

...01z Update - TX/OK...

No changes have been made to severe probabilities/categories with
the 01z update.

Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity over the next
several hours across west TX, with the severe risk increasing in the
03z-06z time period when the low-level jet begins to markedly
increase. This activity is expected to quickly develop into a
line/QLCS and spread east/northeast across parts of central and
western north TX into southwest OK tonight into early Monday
morning. Severe gusts and a few tornadoes remain possible across the
broader level 1 to 3 risk area. A corridor of Enhanced risk (level 3
of 5) is expected across portions of western north TX into southwest
OK closer to the deepening surface low, particularly in the 8z-12z
time frame. Scattered severe gusts, some near 75 mph, and a few
tornadoes are possible in this area.

Uncertainty remains regarding the northward extent of greater severe
potential. Surface-based instability may creep into central OK near
the end of the period around 11z-12z, or perhaps just after.
Regardless, strong wind field near/just above the surface may still
pose a damaging wind risk, and perhaps a tornado, with early morning
storms.

..Leitman.. 11/18/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 180540
SWODY1
SPC AC 180539

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a
few tornadoes will be possible across parts of north Texas into
central Oklahoma this morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is
expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and
evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains
into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will lift
northeast across the Mid-MO Valley toward the upper Midwest today
and tonight. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread
the southern Plains to the Mid/Lower MS Valley. An 80-100 kt 500 mb
jet over the southern Plains this morning will shift northeast
toward the Ozark Plateau through 00z, before weakening overnight.
Further southeast, 40-50 kt southwesterly midlevel flow will
overspread the central Gulf Coast vicinity overnight, though
large-scale ascent will become increasing displaced to the north as
the upper trough approaches the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes after 00z.


At the surface, low pressure is expected to be oriented over
southwest OK/northwest TX at 12z this morning. The low will deepen
as it lifts northeast in tandem with the upper trough, located near
southeast NE by 00z this evening, and over southeast MN by 12z
Tuesday. A cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains
today, becoming oriented from the Mid-MS Valley to the northwest
Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday morning.

...Southern Plains to the Ozark Plateau...

A QLCS will be ongoing this morning from central OK into central TX
ahead of an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Southerly
low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture north and east from the
southern Plains into KS/MO. Instability is expected to remain modest
with northward extent despite low to mid 60s F dewpoints, partly due
to poor lapse rates and layers of modest inhibition. Nevertheless,
strong forcing along the cold front, and in association with the
northeast ejecting upper trough, in combination with strong
deep-layer flow, will support a risk for strong to severe gusts
during the morning hours across parts of OK and north TX. Where
pockets of low-level instability are maximized, particularly
near/east of the I-35 corridor in OK/TX, a risk for a few tornadoes
is expected through midday.

As the upper trough lifts northeast during the afternoon/evening,
stronger forcing will become displaced to the north, and instability
will be scant with eastward extent from eastern OK/TX into parts of
AR/MO. Nevertheless, moderate to strong vertical shear will be
present and a risk for isolated strong gusts and perhaps a tornado
may persist across the Ozark Plateau.

...Central/Eastern KS Vicinity...

A secondary area of thunderstorms may develop closer to the surface
low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK into eastern
KS. These storms may develop in a modestly steep midlevel lapse rate environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow
near the exit region of the midlevel jet streak. A couple of severe
storms may develop, posing an isolated risk for strong gusts, a
tornado and perhaps small hail.

...Southeast TX to Lower MS Valley Vicinity...

The trailing cold front and QLCS associated with the cyclone
ejecting over the Mid/Upper MS Valley during the evening/overnight
will move into an increasingly moist airmass over the Sabine and
Lower MS Valleys. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based
instability will remain scant, through MLCAPE to around 500-750 J/kg
is possible. A robust low-level jet is forecast to overspread the
region ahead of eastward-advancing line segments/clusters. This will
result in enlarged, curved low-level hodographs, and increasing 0-1
km SRH during the late afternoon into overnight. At least an
isolated risk for strong gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will
accompany thunderstorm activity through the nighttime hours. If
forecast trends become more favorable modest surface-based
destabilization, an upgrade to severe probabilities may become
necessary in subsequent outlooks.

..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/18/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181301
SWODY1
SPC AC 181259

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA
AND FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may continue to produce occasional strong to severe
gusts and perhaps a couple brief tornadoes across parts of north
Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A threat for a few
tornadoes and damaging winds will also exist this afternoon and
evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and vicinity.

...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted shortwave trough over the southern High Plains
this morning will eject northeastward across the central Plains and
mid MO Valley through this evening. Attendant 80-100 kt mid-level
jet will likewise overspread OK/KS into western MO by late
afternoon, while a strong (50-60+ kt) southerly low-level jet aids
in northward moisture transport across parts of the southern/central
Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. At the surface, a deep low over
western OK will develop northeastward through the day in tandem with
the ejecting shortwave trough, eventually reaching the Upper Midwest
late tonight. A related cold front will sweep quickly eastward
across the southern/central Plains and into the mid MS Valley
through the period, before decelerating over the lower MS Valley
late tonight into early Tuesday morning.

...Southern Plains...
With low-level winds remaining very strong per area VWPs (up to
50-60 kt at 1 km AGL), an ongoing QLCS across central/southern OK
into north-central TX may continue to pose a risk for occasional
strong to severe winds in the short term this morning as it moves east-northeastward. Ample low-level shear will also support a
continued threat for embedded circulations and a couple brief QLCS
tornadoes this morning. This line is expected to outpace better
low-level moisture return and already weak instability in the next
couple of hours (see very weak surface-based instability in 12Z
soundings from OUN/FWD). Accordingly, nearly all guidance shows
gradual weakening of the line over the next several hours as it
moves into eastern OK and northeast TX. Still, at least an isolated
threat for strong to damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could
persist, even as the thermodynamic environment becomes increasingly
marginal with eastward extent.

...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
The southern portion of the squall line along/ahead of the cold
front should tend to remain weak through early afternoon, before
potentially restrengthening by mid/late afternoon into the early
evening. This should occur as the line/cold front encounters a more
buoyant airmass across parts of east TX into LA and southern AR,
where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating,
even though mid-level lapse rates will remain poor. This region will
remain displaced well south of better forcing associated with the
ejecting shortwave trough. Even so, strengthening mid-level
southwesterly flow through the day will support 40-50 kt of
deep-layer shear and some threat for supercells ahead of the front.
Sufficient southerly low-level winds will also support adequate 0-1
km shear and a threat for a few tornadoes. Most high-resolution
guidance shows either the line restrengthening and/or supercells
developing ahead of it by late afternoon. Have therefore included a
Slight Risk from parts of east TX into LA and vicinity to account
for this potential.

...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley...
Later today, a secondary area of thunderstorms may form closer to
the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK
into central/eastern KS and eventually the mid MO Valley. This
convection may develop in a modestly steep mid-level lapse rate
environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow
near the exit region of the mid-level jet. Even though instability
will remain weak, a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may
pose an isolated risk for gusty winds, a tornado, and perhaps
marginally severe hail. Based on latest guidance trends, have
expanded the Marginal Risk northward some to include parts of the
mid MO Valley.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/18/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181626
SWODY1
SPC AC 181625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
INTO LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds is forecast this
afternoon and evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and
vicinity.

...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a negatively tilted
mid-level trough over the southern High Plains rapidly moving
northeast, and this feature will reach the Upper Midwest by early
Tuesday morning. The southern portion of an ongoing convective line
may continue to weaken across eastern/northeastern TX through the
early afternoon. Models continue to suggest a risk for pre-squall
line updrafts developing in the warm sector this afternoon from east
TX into LA where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime
heating. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor and the stronger
forcing for ascent will gradually become displaced by late afternoon
across this region. However, strong flow fields will support a risk
for supercells with the stronger updrafts that develop. Uncertainty
remains regarding the overall coverage (isolated) of potential
supercells and their associated severe risk. Have left this portion
of the outlook area unchanged.

...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley...
Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OK with the
zone of strongest pressure falls extending northeast into northeast
KS where the low is forecast to track later today. A mid-level
dryslot over the southern Great Plains will continue to shift
northeastward into KS this afternoon and aid in some weak
surface-based destabilization.

In wake of morning showers/thunderstorms over KS, it remains
possible sufficient weak destabilization occurs by mid-late
afternoon immediately ahead of the low from central KS and quickly
spreading northeastward into the MO Valley. Confidence is reserved
regarding overall coverage of robust storm development due in part
to extensive low cloud cover inhibiting destabilization, but it
seems possible a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may
develop and yield an isolated risk for gusty winds and perhaps a
tornado.

..Smith/Thornton.. 11/18/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 182002
SWODY1
SPC AC 182000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds is forecast into
this evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and the central
Plains this evening.

...20z Update...
Across portions of eastern TX and western LA, scattered cloud breaks
and low-level warm advection are supporting destabilization along
and ahead of the main frontal precipitation band. As the front
continues east, updrafts along the front should strengthen, with
gradual storm development in the form of a QLCS. Ahead of the front,
the latest forecast guidance also shows a couple of more discrete
updrafts may eventually mature as temperatures warm. With strong
deep-layer shear in place, storm organization into supercells
capable of damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes is possible.

Across portions of northeast LA and southern MS, buoyancy remains
fairly limited. However, as the front/QLCS approaches, a few
stronger updrafts may persist. Given the strong low-level shear,
damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible into this
evening, though the magnitude and coverage of the threat remain
unclear.

...Central Plains and MO Valley...
Widespread cloud cover and precipitation have been slow to erode
ahead of the mid-level dryslot associated with the advancing
mid-level trough. While buoyancy is expected to remain very weak
(~300-500 J/kg of low-level MUCAPE), recent radar and satellite
imagery show low-topped convective bands have emerged in a narrow
area of cloud-breaks over south-central KS. Weak heating and dynamic
cooling beneath the upper trough could support enough buoyancy for
low-topped thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging gusts or a
brief tornado through the remainder of this afternoon.

..Lyons.. 11/18/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/

...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a negatively tilted
mid-level trough over the southern High Plains rapidly moving
northeast, and this feature will reach the Upper Midwest by early
Tuesday morning. The southern portion of an ongoing convective line
may continue to weaken across eastern/northeastern TX through the
early afternoon. Models continue to suggest a risk for pre-squall
line updrafts developing in the warm sector this afternoon from east
TX into LA where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime
heating. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor and the stronger
forcing for ascent will gradually become displaced by late afternoon
across this region. However, strong flow fields will support a risk
for supercells with the stronger updrafts that develop. Uncertainty
remains regarding the overall coverage (isolated) of potential
supercells and their associated severe risk. Have left this portion
of the outlook area unchanged.

...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley...
Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OK with the
zone of strongest pressure falls extending northeast into northeast
KS where the low is forecast to track later today. A mid-level
dryslot over the southern Great Plains will continue to shift
northeastward into KS this afternoon and aid in some weak
surface-based destabilization.

In wake of morning showers/thunderstorms over KS, it remains
possible sufficient weak destabilization occurs by mid-late
afternoon immediately ahead of the low from central KS and quickly
spreading northeastward into the MO Valley. Confidence is reserved
regarding overall coverage of robust storm development due in part
to extensive low cloud cover inhibiting destabilization, but it
seems possible a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may
develop and yield an isolated risk for gusty winds and perhaps a
tornado.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 190037
SWODY1
SPC AC 190035

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds will persist
into late evening or the early overnight hours across the Lower
Mississippi Valley.

...Mid-MO Valley to Lower MS Valley...

Severe probabilities have been removed from most of east TX
northward into MO/KS/NE/IA based on current location of the surface
cold front and ongoing convection. Any remaining convection across
the Mid-MO Valley vicinity will continue to weaken with eastward
extent given a dearth of instability.

Further south, severe probabilities remain unchanged (other than
trimming behind ongoing QLCS) across the Lower MS Valley. A risk for
isolated severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes remain possible,
especially over the next few hours. By late evening into the
overnight hours, severe potential is expected to become lower with
eastward extent across southern MS/southeast LA and southern AL as
large-scale ascent is rapidly becoming further displaced from better
boundary layer moisture. Strong vertical shear will persist, but
surface-based parcels likely will be unable to realize the favorable
SRH environment, limiting severe potential with eastward extent.

..Leitman.. 11/19/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 190543
SWODY1
SPC AC 190541

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms producing isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity today.

...Central Gulf Coast...

A mid/upper shortwave trough will continue to lift north across the
Great Lakes today, while another upper trough develops east across
the central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley. Any large-scale ascent
associated with these features will remain displaced to the north of
the Gulf coast region. Nevertheless, strong low-level shear will be
in place, with around 35-40 kt south/southwesterly flow just above
the surface through around 850 mb. While deep-layer flow will be
mostly unidirectional, some modest veering with height through 1 km
will support enlarged, curved hodographs.

Despite favorable shear for organized convection, instability will
be limited. Surface dewpoints will be near 70 F near the coast, with
mid/upper 60s F further north across parts of southern to central
MS/AL. However, destabilization will be limited by poor lapse rates,
widespread cloudiness leading to weak daytime heating, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms. Given strength of low-level flow, even meager instability (around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) will support a few strong
wind gusts with thunderstorms progressing east across the region
ahead of a cold front. A brief tornado or waterspout also is
possible, mainly closer to the coast where 70s F dewpoints will be
present.

..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/19/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 191254
SWODY1
SPC AC 191252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms producing isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity today.

...Central Gulf Coast...
The primary upper cyclone, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs,
will evolve into a closed mid/upper-level low over the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest today. A deep surface low over MN this
morning should continue to slowly occlude as it moves northward into
Canada by this evening. A cold front extends southward from this low
to the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast states. Showers and
thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across southern LA/MS/AL
along and ahead of the front. Poor lapse rates noted on the observed
12Z sounding from LIX, along with cloudiness and widespread
pre-frontal precipitation will generally hinder any more than weak destabilization from occurring over land through this afternoon.
Even so, the southern extent of a 30-40 kt south-southwesterly
low-level jet is forecast to migrate slowly eastward today across
the central Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado
appears possible with low-topped rotating cells along or very near
the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture
present (generally 70s surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated
damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along
or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the
overall severe threat isolated.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/19/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 191622
SWODY1
SPC AC 191621

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms producing isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado are possible across the middle Gulf Coast vicinity today.

...Middle Gulf Coast including southern AL/FL Panhandle...
Severe-weather potential is expected to remain relatively limited
today and largely relegated to near-coastal areas of southern
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A longwave trough will remain
centered across a broad part of the Midwest and Great Lakes, well to
the north of a weak surface wave and a nearby narrow inland warm
sector along the middle Gulf Coast. This warm/moist sector will
largely focus offshore due to a lack of more appreciable
cyclogenesis and persistent showers/thunderstorms inland.

The southern extent of a persistent but weakening (25-40 kt) south-southwesterly low-level jet will migrate slowly eastward today
across the Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado
could occur with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the
coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture
present (generally 70s F surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated
damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along
or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the
severe potential rather isolated and marginal overall.

..Guyer/Flournoy.. 11/19/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 191936
SWODY1
SPC AC 191935

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low the
remainder of the afternoon thought tonight.

...20z Update - Central Gulf Coast vicinity...

Severe probabilities have been removed as inland convection has
outpaced axis of modest instability. Any stronger storms are
expected to remain offshore.

..Leitman.. 11/19/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/

...Middle Gulf Coast including southern AL/FL Panhandle...
Severe-weather potential is expected to remain relatively limited
today and largely relegated to near-coastal areas of southern
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A longwave trough will remain
centered across a broad part of the Midwest and Great Lakes, well to
the north of a weak surface wave and a nearby narrow inland warm
sector along the middle Gulf Coast. This warm/moist sector will
largely focus offshore due to a lack of more appreciable
cyclogenesis and persistent showers/thunderstorms inland.

The southern extent of a persistent but weakening (25-40 kt) south-southwesterly low-level jet will migrate slowly eastward today
across the Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado
could occur with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the
coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture
present (generally 70s F surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated
damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along
or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the
severe potential rather isolated and marginal overall.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 200059
SWODY1
SPC AC 200057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain minimal through
tonight.

...Discussion...
An area of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving out of the central/into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, will all lightning
currently relegated to offshore areas. Still, a few flashes will be
possible overnight -- perhaps as far inland as the southern
Appalachians. As the Gulf convection moves eastward, a stronger
storm or two may affect the Florida Big Bend area, with gusty winds
or even a waterspout near the coast not entirely out of the
question. However, any severe potential appears far too low to
warrant an areal outline. Otherwise, a few lightning flashes may
move onshore across the Pacific Northwest later tonight, within a
convective band moving eastward ahead of the strong/offshore upper
low. Severe-weather potential appears negligible.

..Goss.. 11/20/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 200459
SWODY1
SPC AC 200458

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected Today.

...Discussion...
An upper low initially over the north-central U.S. is forecast to
shift southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes region with time,
deepening through the second half of the period. Meanwhile, a
second low is forecast to remain off the Pacific Northwest Coast.

At the surface, an occluded low will shift across the Upper Great
Lakes in tandem with the upper cyclone, while a cold front crosses
the Appalachians through the first half of the period. Overnight,
the front will move off the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coast,
lingering only across southern portions of Florida by the end of the
period Thursday morning.

With a zone of strong onshore/upslope southwesterly flow across the
Pacific Northwest southeast of the offshore upper low, showers and
occasional lightning flashes will occur, with lightning potential
focused near the Coast Ranges.

Showers and embedded thunderstorms will also be possible across the Mid-Atlantic states south to North Carolina, ahead of the advancing
surface cold front. Given weak/slightly elevated instability
anticipated across this area, severe weather is not expected.

Finally, showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast across
portions of the Florida Peninsula, but with weak lapse rates and
modest flow aloft, severe storms are not anticipated.

..Goss/Wendt.. 11/20/2024

$$

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