ACUS11 KWNS 060056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060056=20
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-060300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1572
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Areas affected...Black Hills region

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487...488...

Valid 060056Z - 060300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487, 488
continues.

SUMMARY...Small MCS/supercell will track southeast across the Black
Hills region over the next few hours. Hail and wind remain the
primary risks.

DISCUSSION...Long-lived supercell/MCS is tracking across southeast
MT into northeast WY early this evening. This small complex will
continue propagating southeast across the Black Hills, along/north
of a synoptic boundary that is draped along the southern/western
portions of the higher terrain. Latest diagnostic data suggests a
narrow corridor of instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) extends
across the Black Hills, and 00z sounding from UNR supports this with
40kt 0-6km bulk shear. Environmental conditions remain favorable for supercells, but some form of a hybrid supercell/MCS complex is
expected to track southeast into the northern portions of the Black
Hills by 02z.

..Darrow.. 07/06/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6RB17hSsO5dp1GapWPKSWcK4QRGrOFgQqAOMC0RR8Q2rZVRy50DmghoUwaZn-fj35wLoOPA3e= AWrspTLR8t6KUCs7mc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...

LAT...LON 45530441 44760241 43880196 43520308 44790535 45530441=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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