ACUS11 KWNS 052156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052156=20
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-060000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1570
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Areas affected...Northern High Plains/Black Hills region

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487...

Valid 052156Z - 060000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487
continues.

SUMMARY...New severe thunderstorm watch will likely be warranted
into western South Dakota in the next hour or so. Severe wind/hail
can be expected with organized convection spreading into this
region.

DISCUSSION...Notable high-level diffluent flow is evident across the
northern High Plains early this evening ahead of a progressive
short-wave trough that is advancing across the northern Rockies. A
considerable amount of deep convection is developing in response to
this progressive feature, with a maturing MCS beginning to surge
across southeast MT. This activity should begin to turn southeast
over the next few hours, along/north of a surface front that is
draped from the Nebraska Panhandle, along the west side of the Black
Hills, into the northern Big Horn Mountains near Buffalo. Greatest
buoyancy extends along the moist side of this wind shift which
favors a severe MCS propagating toward the Black Hills later this
evening. New severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued to
reflect this scenario.

..Darrow.. 07/05/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_bGSlsO4ZSifloJM2IfRoqjFCHjz1u3gbUPqYLbDhlWZ6Utsrd0H1rbVm605GRzl7ArqGS162= Ln3jKQOy3mAMgZQ7lY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 45920606 46260467 44740193 43430199 43150363 44630621
45920606=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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