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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1557

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 4 04:28:44 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 040428
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040428=20
    MNZ000-NDZ000-040600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1557
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1128 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

    Areas affected...Portions of northeastern North Dakota and far
    northwestern Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485...

    Valid 040428Z - 040600Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe risk may spread/develop into parts of
    northeastern ND over the next few hours -- within Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch #485.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms that has become outflow dominant in
    southern Manitoba is tracking slowly east-southeastward toward north-central/northeast ND. Ahead of these storms, additional
    elevated convection is developing at the nose of a strengthening
    30-40 kt low-level jet. Over the next few hours, the convective
    cluster and downstream development may merge and track
    east-southeastward along the northeastern periphery of an
    instability gradient extending from northeastern ND into
    northwestern MN. Strong low-level warm advection accompanying the
    low-level jet and around 40-50 kt of effective shear may support a
    loosely organized cluster capable of producing damaging winds and
    sporadic large hail. Overall convective evolution remains uncertain,
    though a spatial extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #485 in
    northeastern ND and perhaps extreme northwest MN may become
    necessary.

    ..Weinman.. 07/04/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4RyGTpunl2uyFa7wn7CufYmR6IJ9_4DSZnT1O61T61PbHC7XlFN0TuekLgjC5mTayPHwMmbxz= hs1-VwnqKa_KNcCrmA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

    LAT...LON 48189851 48630015 48740099 48940122 49140107 49189993
    49049688 48849656 48129657 47969712 48189851=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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