ACUS03 KWNS 251919
SWODY3
SPC AC 251918

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms producing large hail and locally damaging winds are
forecast over parts of the northern Plains late on Friday. Sporadic
damaging gusts may also occur over parts of the Mid Atlantic and
Southeast.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will shift east across the northern Rockies
on Friday with strengthening mid-level flow overspreading the
northern Plains. This will result in lee troughing from the Canadian
Prairies to the central High Plains. A moist environment will be in
place east of this trough with dewpoints in the 60s.

...Northern Plains...
Moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast across the
northern Plains on Friday with temperatures near 80 and dewpoints in
the 60s. Strengthening mid-level flow should result in ample shear
for supercells by Friday afternoon/evening as ascent increases
across the northern Plains. Significant hail and severe wind gusts
will be the primary threat from this activity. A strengthening/moist
low-level jet may support supercell maintenance through the evening
and perhaps into the overnight period. Even if diurnal storms
dissipate, additional overnight elevated storms are likely across
portions of eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota amid
strengthening isentropic ascent.

...Mid Atlantic to the Southeast...
Moderate instability is expected to develop across much of the
eastern CONUS on Friday. Instability is not expected to be as strong
as mid-level temperatures will be warmer after Day 1/2 convection
across the region. However, a pocket of relatively cooler air aloft
will exist across the Southeast and into the central Appalachians
and Mid-Atlantic which will support some threat for stronger storms
capable of damaging wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 06/25/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 260717
SWODY3
SPC AC 260716

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with wind and hail potential will be
possible over parts of the northern Plains to upper Mississippi
Valley Saturday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Shortwave ridging will occur over the upper MS Valley during the day
on Saturday, before height falls arrive in association with a
low-amplitude upper trough moving across MT and the Dakotas. This
will allow a large area of moisture and instability to build, with
MUCAPE over 4000 J/kg forecast from the eastern Dakotas into MN and
IA.

A surface trough is forecast to deepen from the eastern Dakotas into
central NE, as southerly winds maintain a northward flux of theta-e
with a deepening moist boundary layer. The end result should be
storms developing within this trough, which will then spread east
and persist through evening.

While shear will not be particularly strong, steep midlevel lapse
rates combined with veering winds with height will favor initial
robust cells capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado risk,
before storms form into propagating clusters with damaging winds
likely. The surging theta-e out of the southwest during the evening
may allow severe storms to persist into western WI late.

Elsewhere, widespread moisture and instability will remain over the
Southeast and Mid Atlantic, with scattered clusters of afternoon
storms likely. Pockets of stronger instability may support localized
strong to damaging gusts. Predictability is currently too low to
denote precisely which areas may see a low-end severe gust threat.

..Jewell.. 06/26/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 261930
SWODY3
SPC AC 261929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA...ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorms, posing a risk for severe hail and
wind, are possible across parts of the middle Missouri Valley into
Upper Midwest Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

...Discussion...
Little change in the large-scale mid/upper flow is forecast from
Friday into Saturday, with modest westerlies remaining generally
zonal and confined to the northern tier of the U.S. and adjacent
portions of southern Canada. Within this regime, one notable short
wave trough is forecast to progress east of the Great Lakes into New
England Saturday through Saturday night, as broad upstream
troughing (with at least a couple of embedded smaller-scale
perturbations) progresses eastward along the north central
Canadian/U.S. border vicinity.

In lower-levels, cooler and drier boundary-layer air is likely to be
maintained across parts of northern New England, with another influx
of cooler air spreading southeast of the Great Lakes through the
upper Ohio Valley, northern Mid Atlantic coast and southern New
England by late Saturday night. A trailing cold front is likely to
continue slowly advancing east/southeast of the northern Rockies,
through the northern Great Plains. Elsewhere, east of the high
plains, seasonably moist boundary air may become characterized by
moderate to strong potential instability with daytime heating.

...Northern Great Plains...
The extent of convective development and its evolution remain
unclear for this period due to a number of lingering uncertainties.
Focus for renewed thunderstorm development could be impacted by
outflow from convection developing Friday night into early Saturday. Additionally, strongest potential instability by Saturday afternoon
is likely to become focused beneath the nose of the warmer and more
strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, roughly across the
northern/eastern South Dakota vicinity, before slowly becoming
suppressed southeastward. However, this might tend to become
displaced to the south of the stronger and more favorably sheared
westerlies.

Even so, given thermodynamic profiles becoming characterized by
steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and large CAPE, scattered
strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible ahead of
the southeastward advancing cold front by late afternoon. Aided by
forcing for ascent supported by low-level warm advection beneath
broadly difluent upper flow, activity may consolidate into one or
two eastward/southeastward propagating clusters by Saturday evening.

...Northern Mid Atlantic into Champlain Valley...
A corridor of moderate to large developing mixed-layer CAPE, ahead
of the southeastward advancing cold front, and within preceding
deepening surface troughing, seems likely to provide the focus for
vigorous thunderstorm development by late Saturday afternoon.
Although lapse rates may be modest, and stronger potential
instability across the northern Mid Atlantic may be displaced to the
south of the better flow/shear across Upstate New York into New
England, the environment may still become conducive to scattered
strong thunderstorms accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging
wind gusts. If/when lingering uncertainties become more clear, it
is possible that severe probabilities could still be increased a bit
further in later outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 06/26/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 270726
SWODY3
SPC AC 270725

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA INTO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the
central High Plains to the northern Great Lakes on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the northern Plains on
Sunday. At the surface, a cold front will move across the Upper
Midwest to near northern Lower Michigan to the central Plains by 12Z
Monday.

...Central Plains to the Upper Midwest...
Very strong to extreme instability is forecast to develop ahead of a
cold front from the central Plains to Wisconsin. Storms are expected
to develop along this front during the afternoon to evening on
Sunday. Shear will be mostly weak along the front which may limit
storm organization. However, where stronger mid-level flow is
present (central and northern Wisconsin into the western UP of
Michigan), more organized storms are expected, including the
potential for supercells. These storms will pose a threat for severe
wind gusts and large hail, and perhaps a tornado.

Farther south and west along the front, weaker shear will be
present. However, very strong heating and steep lapse rates will
support some severe wind threat as storms develop along the uncapped
front during the afternoon/evening on Sunday.

..Bentley.. 06/27/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 271931
SWODY3
SPC AC 271930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms appear possible Sunday from the
central Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region, with at
least some potential for the evolution of a large, organized severe
storm cluster across parts of the mid into lower Missouri Valley and
central Great Plains late Sunday through Sunday night.

...Discussion...
Stronger westerlies will remain confined to the northern
mid-latitudes, but models indicate further amplification of flow
across the northeastern Pacific into interior North America through
this period. This is forecast to include building mid/upper ridging
across British Columbia through the western Canadian Prairies and
northern U.S. Rockies, and digging downstream troughing across the international border toward the Upper Midwest. As mid-level flow
transitions from westerly to northwesterly across the northern
Rockies toward the middle/lower Missouri Valley, an initially
prominent plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air advecting to the
east of the Rockies is likely to become increasingly suppressed southward/southwestward into and through the central Great Plains by
early Monday. Although the main surface cold front may only reach
the Upper Midwest into high plains to the south of the Black Hills,
this may be preceded by a notable wind shift, reinforced by
considerable convective outflow through much of the central Great
Plains into middle Mississippi Valley.

...Central Great Plains into middle/lower Missouri Valley...
There is a notable signal within the model output that a large
reservoir of moderate to strong potential instability, beneath the
plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, may provide support for one
or two significant upscale growing clusters of thunderstorms Sunday
through Sunday night. There remains sizable spread among the
various output concerning where, ranging from near/east of the mid
into lower Missouri Valley to portions of western Nebraska into
Kansas. Much may depend on the evolution of a possible evolving
cluster of storms, and its outflow, across southern South
Dakota/northern Nebraska Saturday night, and the extent of the
suppression of the elevated mixed-layer by early Sunday, which
remain unclear.

Stronger instability may tend to become displaced to the south of
the stronger westerlies, but modest shear due to veering winds with
height, coupled the thermodynamic profiles, characterized by
unsaturated lower/mid-levels, with steep lapse rates and large CAPE,
seem likely to become supportive of organized convection with strong
cold pools capable of producing swaths of strong to severe surface
gusts.

Severe probabilities will probably need to be upgraded once
lingering uncertainties become better resolved.

...Upper Midwest...
If early period convection does not impact subsequent
destabilization near/ahead of the southeastward advancing frontal
zone, it still appears possible that deep-layer shear and forcing
for ascent downstream of the digging short wave trough could support
scattered strong to severe storm development in a corridor across
southwestern through northeastern Wisconsin and portions of adjacent
states.

..Kerr.. 06/27/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 280724
SWODY3
SPC AC 280723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts
of the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves through the western
Great Lakes on Monday. Meanwhile, mid-level ridging will remain
persistent across the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front
will move across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. High
pressure will build into the Plains in the wake of this cold front.

...Ohio Valley...
Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front
in the Ohio Valley on Monday with dewpoints in the low 70s and
temperatures warming to near 80. Mid-level flow around 25 to 30
knots may provide sufficient shear for some multicell clusters with
a threat for damaging wind gusts Monday afternoon/evening. This
threat should be mostly diurnally driven and wane after dark.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Moderate instability is forecast east of the Appalachians on Monday
as temperatures warm into the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s. Shear will be quite weak, but steep low-level
lapse rates will support some threat for damaging wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 06/28/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 281929
SWODY3
SPC AC 281928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...MIDWEST...AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts
of the Ohio Valley, Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday.

...Synopsis...
An amplifying midlevel trough and accompanying jet streak will
advance eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday. At
the same time, a related cold front will overspread the OH Valley
through the afternoon.

...Ohio Valley and Midwest...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the
eastward-moving cold front in the OH Valley, aided by large-scale
ascent preceding the midlevel trough. While midlevel lapse rates
will be modest over the warm sector, diurnal heating of a moist air
mass (lower 70s dewpoints) will still contribute to moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy (highest over the lower OH Valley). Around 30
kt of deep-layer shear and the destabilizing air mass will favor
organized multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage
through the afternoon.

Farther west, large-scale ascent in the left-exit region of the
midlevel jet will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Midwest
during the afternoon. Sufficient post-frontal moisture beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates, and elongated/straight hodographs (30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear), will support isolated severe hail in the stronger
cells.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Despite weak deep-layer flow/shear, a few wet microbursts will be
possible east of the Appalachians during the afternoon, where steep
low-level lapse rates will develop amid deep/rich tropospheric
moisture (PW around 2 inches).

..Weinman.. 06/28/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 290723
SWODY3
SPC AC 290722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the
Carolinas to the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the
Northeast on Tuesday. Moderate mid-level flow will overspread much
of the Great Lakes and Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will
move east across the Northeast and arc back into the southern
Plains. This front will be the primary focus for severe thunderstorm
potential on Tuesday.

...Carolinas to the Northeast...
Low to mid 70s dewpoints should be in place ahead of the cold front
east of the Appalachians on Tuesday. Diurnal destabilization should
result in weak to moderate instability from the Carolinas into the
Northeast by early afternoon. The greatest instability is expected
across North Carolina and Virginia. Storm coverage will likely be
higher in this area, but with limited deep-layer shear, storms will
likely be less organized.

Farther north, stronger shear will be present from Pennsylvania
northward. This may result in greater storms organization including
the potential for a few supercells with a threat for large hail and
damaging wind gusts. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak (<6 C/km)
which will be the primary limiting factor to greater severe weather probabilities across portions of the Northeast.

..Bentley.. 06/29/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 291927
SWODY3
SPC AC 291926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An
isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High
Plains.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will track across the Northeast as upper-ridging
remains in place across the central CONUS, and an upper low meanders
along the West Coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will
sweep across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic regions while a surface
anticyclone overspreads much of the U.S. between the Rockies and
Appalachians. Ahead of the surface cold front, ample moisture and
instability, coinciding with modest deep-layer shear, will support
scattered strong thunderstorms, a few of which may be severe.

...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic...
As the surface cold front advances east across the central/northern Appalachians, surface heating should support surface temperatures
rising into the 80s to 90 F amid low to mid 70s F dewpoints,
resulting in moderate buoyancy. The rich low-level moisture,
overspread by mediocre lapse rates, will support 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE,
constrained to tall/thin profiles. With the approach of the trough,
enough strengthening with height of the 850-500 mb wind fields will
encourage 25-40 kts of effective bulk shear and the subsequent
development of multicells and short line segments. At least isolated
damaging gusts are possible throughout the Northeast. However, a
Category 2/Slight risk was added across parts of the Mid-Atlantic,
where the latest guidance depicts relatively robust convective
development, and where forecast buoyancy is strongest. Here, wind
damage may occur on a more frequent basis.

...Central High Plains...
Weak upslope low-level flow around the aforementioned surface
anticyclone will encourage the northwestward advection of upper 50s
to 60 F surface dewpoints into the Nebraska Panhandle and immediate
adjacent areas by Tuesday afternoon. These dewpoints will be
overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, resulting in at
least 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to
develop off of the higher terrain as they progress eastward.
Multicellular or perhaps transient supercellular storm modes are
possible given lackluster vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, a stray
severe thunderstorm is possible, accompanied by mainly a severe
wind/hail threat.

..Squitieri.. 06/29/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 300729
SWODY3
SPC AC 300728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread scattered storms are possible across a large portion of
the CONUS on Wednesday. Organized severe storms appear unlikely, but
isolated damaging wind gusts may be possible from the Southeast to
the Carolinas.

...Discussion...
Widespread monsoon thunderstorms are expected across a large portion
of the Southwest into the central Rockies. Additional widespread
thunderstorm activity is expected along and south of a cold front
which extends from the central/southern Plains across the Southeast
and into the Carolinas. Shear will be very weak across this entire
zone with very poor mid-level lapse rates. However, moisture will be
very high with PWAT values around 1.75" to 2" across the Southeast.
Therefore, isolated stronger storms are possible with a threat for
wet microbursts. However, a lack of a more focused zone of threat
within a broad, low probability risk area, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time.

Moderate instability is forecast across the northern Plains on
Wednesday. However, the mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen
during the period which should keep thunderstorm activity mostly
limited. As the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens on Wednesday
night, some thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
northern Plains. However, these storms will likely remain sub-severe
given relatively limited elevated instability.

Stronger mid-level flow will be present west of the mid-level ridge
across Montana and to its east across the Great Lakes on Wednesday.
However, limited moisture will lead to mostly weak instability in
both areas. Therefore, storm coverage/intensity remains
questionable.

..Bentley.. 06/30/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 301922
SWODY3
SPC AC 301921

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. A couple of severe gusts may
accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will meander across the Northeast while upper
ridging persists over the central CONUS and a mid-level trough
advances over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Seasonal moisture
and associated diurnal heating will encourage at least scattered
development across most of the CONUS during the afternoon and
evening hours. However, a couple of thunderstorms embedded in the
stronger mid-level flow over the Northern Rockies could become
strong. Given adequate shear and instability in this region, a few
of the stronger storms could become severe.

...Portions of the Northern Rockies...
The periphery of relatively greater mid-level moisture is poised to
traverse the western extent of the upper ridge on Wednesday.
Stronger west-southwesterly mid-level flow will graze the Northern
Rockies due to the approach of the upper trough to the west. Robust
boundary layer heating in this region will boost low-level lapse
rates to 9 C/km over several locales, as 8.5 C/km mid-level lapse
rates overspreads the well-mixed boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed
1000 J/kg over many areas, and thunderstorms accessing this buoyancy
will be embedded in stronger mid-level flow and 30-40 kts of
effective bulk shear. As such, stronger multicells may produce a mix
of wet and dry downbursts, perhaps inducing a couple of severe
gusts.

..Squitieri.. 06/30/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 010729
SWODY3
SPC AC 010728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are
forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind
gusts are also possible in the northern Plains.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level ridge will shift east across the central CONUS with a
strong and amplifying trough across the Northeast. To the west of
the ridge axis, moderate southwesterly flow is forecast from the
Northwest into the northern Rockies with multiple embedded shortwave
troughs. At the surface, a cold front will move quickly east across
the Northeast during the afternoon/evening on Thursday. In addition,
a lee cyclone will develop across the western Dakotas. A warm front
will extend east from this low pressure center and a dryline/surface
trough extending to its south.

...Northeast...
Moderate instability is forecast to develop on Thursday afternoon
ahead of a cold front across the Northeast. Cooling mid-level
temperatures, associated with the deepening mid-level trough, will
steepen lapse rates through the day. In addition, a moderately
strong mid-level jet streak will overspread the warm sector with 40
to 50 knots of mid-level flow. A more concentrated severe weather
threat may occur beneath this mid-level jet streak if moderate
instability can develop where shear would be maximized.

...Northern Plains...
Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop north of the
surface low across the western Dakotas. Weak isentropic ascent and
height falls in an uncapped environment may support some strong
storms Thursday afternoon/evening across far eastern Montana into
the western Dakotas. The primary limiting factor to a greater severe
weather threat will be shear with only 20 to 25 knots forecast.
However, this may be sufficient for a few multicell clusters capable
of isolated severe wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 07/01/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 011935
SWODY3
SPC AC 011934

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are
forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind
gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the
Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will deepen over New England as an upper trough
moves over the Midwest, and broad mid-level troughing with multiple
embedded impulses, overspreads the U.S. west of the Rockies on
Thursday. The East and West Coast upper troughs will encourage
surface troughing across the Northeast and the Plains states, as
well as weak surface low development over the Great Basin. Given the
presence of seasonal low-level moisture, and expected diurnal
heating, at least scattered thunderstorms will develop across much
of the Interior West, into the Plains, Midwest, and East Coast
regions. At least isolated strong to potentially severe storms could
develop over parts of the northern CONUS, where appreciable vertical
wind shear will overspread the warm, moist airmass to support
organized thunderstorms.

...Northeast...
As the surface trough progresses across the Northeast, deep-layer
northwesterly flow will overspread the region. Diurnal heating of a
seasonably moist boundary layer will foster modest buoyancy, with
500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE expected. As thunderstorms develop during the
afternoon, they will encounter roughly 25-35 kts of effective bulk
shear, characterized by elongated/straight hodographs. Multicells
and short line segments should be the main storm modes, with
isolated damaging gusts the primary threat with the stronger storms.


...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes...
A belt of 35-45 kt northwesterly flow on the back side of the East
Coast upper trough will overspread the Great Lakes during the
afternoon hours, where diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass
will destabilize the boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed 2000 J/kg in
spots (locally higher to 3000 J/kg toward southeast MN given 7.5+
C/km mid-level lapse rates farther to the west). Forecast soundings
depict modestly curved and elongated hodographs, supporting
multicells and perhaps supercells with some of the stronger storms.
Isolated severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms.
Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if
favorable trends in greater storm coverage are realized in later
available guidance.

...Northern High Plains...
A mid-level impulse will traverse the broader western upper
troughing regime and eject into the northern High Plains Thursday
afternoon. By this time, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread
upper 60s F dewpoints to promote moderate to locally strong
instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Modest turning and
strengthening of the winds with height will support elongated
hodographs with slight low-level curvature, which will support
multicells and splitting supercells given the aforementioned
buoyancy. The storms are forecast to be isolated in coverage, with a
few instances of severe wind and hail expected.

..Squitieri.. 07/01/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 020729
SWODY3
SPC AC 020728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across
portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday.

...Discussion...
A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves through the central
Plains and into the Upper Midwest on Friday. As this trough advances
east, scattered to widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated
within a moderate to strongly unstable airmass. Shear across the
warm sector remains highly uncertain at this time as the exact
timing of the strengthening mid-level flow remains unclear. If
mid-level flow remains 30 knots or less, storm organization may be
somewhat nebulous with a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts.
However, if stronger mid-level flow can overspread the warm sector
during the afternoon/evening, a more concentrated severe weather
threat is possible. Due to these uncertainties, a marginal risk is
sufficient at this time, but higher severe weather probabilities may
be needed if more favorable warm-sector shear appears likely.

A mid-level trough will move from the Great Basin into the Northern
Rockies on Friday. Widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated
as this trough shifts northeast. At this time it does not appear
instability will be sufficient to substantiate a Marginal Risk, but
if greater instability materializes, a Marginal Risk may eventually
be needed.

..Bentley.. 07/02/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 021857
SWODY3
SPC AC 021856

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY OVER
PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across
portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday.

...Dakotas and Upper Midwest...
The band of primary westerly flow will be relegated to the northern
tier of states on Friday, with a pronounced shortwave trough moving
across southern SK/MT and into the northern Plains. Models are in
general consensus that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will
develop along the associated cold front over the eastern Dakotas.
Relatively warm/moist and unstable conditions ahead of the front,
coupled with favorable westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of
severe storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. There remain differences between the various 12z model solutions regarding timing
and intensity of the approaching trough. This lends sufficient
uncertainty to the corridor of greatest concern to maintain only
MRGL risk at this time. However, parts of the area will likely need
upgraded in later outlooks as details become clearer.

...ID/MT...
A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on
Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over
parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is
some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail
over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to
diverse to add a risk area at this time.

..Hart.. 07/02/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 030731
SWODY3
SPC AC 030731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms capable of severe wind gusts are
possible across the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains.

...Upper Midwest...
A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move from the northern Plains
to the Upper Midwest during the day Saturday. Some stronger
mid-level flow is forecast to overspread a moderately unstable
airmass across Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Wind shear will
remain modest, but should be sufficient (~25 knots) for some
multicells capable of isolated severe wind potential.

...Central High Plains...
Moderate instability is forecast to develop across the central High
Plains ahead of a cold front and dryline which are expected to
intersect somewhere around western Nebraska. Some stronger mid-level
flow may promote greater storm organization across Wyoming,
southeast Montana and western South Dakota. Farther south, mid-level
flow is not forecast to be as strong, but shear should still be
sufficient for a few organized storms, including the potential for
supercells.

..Bentley.. 07/03/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 031925
SWODY3
SPC AC 031924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper
Midwest and central High Plains on Saturday, with both wind and hail
possible.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A weakening shortwave trough will move from the upper MS Valley
across the Great Lakes, with stronger wave over the northern Rockies
during the late afternoon. This second system will proceed eastward
across the northern Plains overnight, providing large-scale ascent
with more substantial cooling aloft.

At the surface, a cold front associated with the Great Lakes wave
will stretch from upper MI into central WI, IA and northern KS by
late afternoon, with a ribbon of higher instability and 70s F
dewpoints ahead of it. Given good heating along the boundary and
substantial MLCAPE, clusters of strong to possibly severe storms are
expected in the uncapped air mass from central WI into northeast KS.
Damaging gusts are most probable, although sporadic hail cannot be
ruled out.

To the west, low pressure will develop over eastern WY, with a cold
front pushing south into northern WY. The steeper lapse rates, along
with effective deep-layer shear over 40 kt will likely support
sporadic supercells capable of large hail and strong gusts. These
cells will likely move southeastward, and possibly affect parts of
western SD and NE late.

For the central High Plains, easterly surface winds near the stalled
front will maintain low-level moisture, with instability building
across western KS and eastern CO. Strong heating with a deeply mixed
boundary layer will support initial storms over CO on the steep
low-level lapse rate interface, with further development along the
front into KS. Locally severe hail and wind will be possible here,
with mixed storm modes.

..Jewell.. 07/03/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 040707
SWODY3
SPC AC 040706

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms may produce isolated severe wind and hail along the
central High Plains on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Zonal upper flow, with multiple embedded mid-level impulses, will
become established over the northern CONUS as an upper trough
continues to meander along the CA coastline on Sunday. A weak
surface trough will become established over the Northeast while a
relatively nebulous surface pattern will characterize much of the
remaining CONUS. Widespread rich low-level moisture, amid an
uncapped airmass, is expected across much of the U.S. east of the
Rockies on Sunday afternoon, supporting thunderstorm development
across the Great Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/MS Valley and
toward the Carolina Piedmont. Weak upslope flow along the central
High Plains, beneath cooler temperatures aloft, will promote
adequate instability amid modest vertical wind shear to support an
isolated severe threat.

...Central High Plains...
By Sunday afternoon peak heating, low 60s F surface dewpoints will
advect northwestward across western NE into eastern CO and WY,
beneath 8.5 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates, promoting over 2000
J/kg MLCAPE over several locales. By early evening, modest 500 mb
westerlies will overspread a 25 kt south-southeasterly low-level jet
across the central High Plains, resulting in up to 40 kts of
effective bulk shear. There is an appreciable chance for a few of
the stronger storms to organize into multicells and supercells,
especially across northeastern CO into western NE, where the best buoyancy/shear overlap should occur. Isolated severe hail and wind
are the main threats, though a tornado could not be ruled out,
especially if a sustained supercell can develop.

..Squitieri.. 07/04/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 041836
SWODY3
SPC AC 041835

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms may produce isolated severe wind and hail along the
central High Plains on Sunday.

...Central High Plains...
A broad upper ridge will be in place on Sunday across most of the
central and southern US, with the mid-level westerlies extending
across the northern states. Scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are expected throughout the High Plains from MT to TX,
but the area of greatest concern for a few strong/severe storms will
extend from the Black Hills region into northeast NM. Strong
heating and steep lapse rates will promote some risk of damaging
winds and hail in the strongest cells. Parts of western NE may
require higher severe probabilities in later outlooks.

..Hart.. 07/04/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 050731
SWODY3
SPC AC 050730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday.
Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to
potentially severe storms are also possible over the northern
Appalachians.

...Synopsis...
Zonal mid-level flow will persevere over the northern CONUS as a
mid-level trough meanders along the CA coastline on Monday.
Mid-level impulses, embedded in the zonal flow aloft, will traverse
the Upper MS Valley and New England during the afternoon, acting as
a source of lift amid adequate moisture, instability, and vertical
wind shear, to support the potential for strong thunderstorms, a few
of which could become severe, especially over the central Plains.

...Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley...
A weak surface low will develop across the central High Plains and
augment northward moisture transport beneath a plume of steep
mid-level lapse rates. 60 F surface dewpoints beneath 8 C/km
mid-level lapse rates will yield 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating.
Furthermore modest northwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the
impulse will overspread the central Plains, resulting in 40 kts of
effective bulk shear. Given modestly elongated and curved
hodographs, supercells may develop, accompanied by a severe wind and
hail threat (with a few stones potentially exceeding 2 inches in
diameter). A tornado is also possible, particularly in central
Nebraska, where forecast hodographs show larger, curved low-level
hodographs. Storms may grow upscale into an MCS by evening,
accompanied by mainly a severe gust threat.

Strong storms may develop farther northeast into the Upper MS Valley
during the late afternoon/early evening hours. Though buoyancy will
be slightly weaker compared to the central Plains, elongated
hodographs suggest that a few supercells may produce isolated
instances of severe hail.

...Portions of the Northern Appalachians...
A mid-level impulse embedded in the 500 mb flow will impinge on the
northern Appalachians by afternoon peak heating, providing enough
lift for convective initiation. Near 70F surface dewpoints beneath
modest lapse rates will contribute to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE in tall/thin thermodynamic profiles. Forecast soundings depict hodographs with
some low-level curvature and size, suggesting that some storms may
become strong and organized. Multicells and supercells may pose a
damaging gust threat.

..Squitieri.. 07/05/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 051925
SWODY3
SPC AC 051924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday.
Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to
potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York
into Maine.

...Central to Northern Plains...
A northwest flow regime will become more prominent over the region
on Monday, with 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb. Area of early storms are
possible over parts of KS and NE from previous day activity, but air
mass recovery will occur behind from eastern CO into western NE/KS
with heating. New development may wait until near 00Z or after, but
cells capable of large hail will be possible over a small area.

...Upstate NY into ME...
A moist and unstable air mass will exist over the area, ahead of a
cold front extending from western NY into ME. Daytime heating of
this air mass will support scattered storms, beneath modest 30-40 kt
midlevel winds. This should support fast-moving mixed-mode
convection, with areas of damaging gusts.

..Jewell.. 07/05/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 060730
SWODY3
SPC AC 060729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms, capable of producing isolated damaging to
severe gusts, are possible across the Southern Plains into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Carolinas into the Northeast on
Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will progress across the Midwest while an upper
ridge persists across the Southwest, and another upper trough
meanders along the California Coastline on Tuesday. Weak surface
troughs will be positioned over the central U.S. and along the East
Coast by afternoon, serving as a focus for scattered to widespread
thunderstorm development. Given the presence of at least moderate
instability, isolated severe storms will be possible over portions
of the central and eastern CONUS.

...Carolinas into southern New England...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected ahead of the surface
trough by late morning/early afternoon. Surface temperatures should
approach the upper 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, yielding up to 3000
J/kg of tall/thin MLCAPE (given poor mid-level lapse rates).
Relatively weak flow below 500 mb should result in mediocre vertical
wind shear. Pulse cellular storms and perhaps a few multicells are
likely, with the stronger cores supporting wet downbursts and
isolated damaging gust potential.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of the surface trough,
and along preexisting boundaries from preceding storms during the
afternoon hours. These storms will develop within a northwesterly
upper flow regime as the mid-level trough departs the Mid-MS Valley
region and are poised to move/propagate south-southeastward into the
evening hours. Ahead of the storms, surface temperatures should warm
into the 90s F amid upper 60s/lower 70s F dewpoints. With mid-level
lapse rates generally in the 6.5-7.5 C/km range, MLCAPE should peak
around or just over 2500 J/kg. Given modest vertical wind shear
(i.e. 30 kts of effective bulk shear), multicells are expected. The
stronger storms may produce isolated severe gusts, though an
instance of hail cannot be ruled out. Should storms merge into one
or more MCSs, a slightly denser swath of strong to severe gusts may
be realized. Higher severe wind probabilities may be needed if
confidence increases in MCS development, and if the location/timing
of the MCS can be better ascertained.

..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 061931
SWODY3
SPC AC 061930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible
from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from
the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday.

...Discussion...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO
Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low
moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will
remain over the Four Corners states.

Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution
and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the
central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass
over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of
stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and
OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the
general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to
coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential.

To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid
Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist
CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters
are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central
Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts.

..Jewell.. 07/06/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070727
SWODY3
SPC AC 070726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains
on Wednesday, with large hail the main threat, and an instance of
very large hail cannot be ruled out. Isolated damaging gusts are
also possible across parts of the eastern U.S.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will persist over the Southwest as a low-amplitude
mid-level trough approaches the Northeast on Wednesday. A pronounced
mid-level impulse will crest the upper ridge and traverse the
northern Rockies, supporting the rapid onset of surface lee
troughing across the northern Plains. Here, rich low-level moisture
will advect northward beneath colder temperatures aloft to support
strong buoyancy amid modest vertical wind shear. At least isolated
severe storms are likely. Isolated strong thunderstorms may also
develop along portions of the East Coast.

...Northern Plains...
A conditional severe threat is expected to develop ahead of the
surface trough on Wednesday afternoon. Dewpoints into the 60s F will
be overspread by 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates by afternoon peak
heating, yielding 3500-4500 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest northwesterly 500 mb
flow rotating around the ridge will overspread the aforementioned
southerly flow, resulting in modestly elongated hodographs and 30
kts of effective bulk shear. A dryline feature will advance eastward
during the afternoon, serving as a primary lifting mechanism in
tandem with strong surface heating given weak upper support.
Isolated supercell development is possible, accompanied by a severe
wind/hail risk. Given the degree of buoyancy in place, a conditional
risk of 2+ inch hail exists should a supercell develop and become
sustained. Weak upper support and lack of confidence for greater
storm coverage is the primary limiting factor for higher severe
probabilities at this time.

...Portions of the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic...
Scattered thunderstorms should develop atop a moist, weakly capped
boundary layer by early afternoon. Though vertical wind shear should
be weak and lapse rates will be poor, surface heating of the moist
boundary layer will support 2000-3000 J/kg of tall/thin CAPE. As
such, the stronger storms may produce wet downbursts and subsequent
isolated damaging gusts.

..Squitieri.. 07/07/2025

$$

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