AWUS01 KWNH 251654
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-252300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0513
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1254 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Areas affected...northern IA, eastern SD, southern MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251700Z - 252300Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will gradually expand in
coverage through the afternoon and intensify to support rain rates
of 1-2"/hr. This could produce 2-3" of rain with locally higher
amounts across wet antecedent soils. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows an
expansive area of stratiform rain across Minnesota. This
precipitation is occurring in response to pronounced ascent within
the RRQ of a strong jet streak to the northeast and persistent
warm advection and isentropic ascent along the 850mb inflow axis.
PWs across the region are impressive, analyzed by the SPC RAP to
be 1.5 to 2.0 inches, with the limiting factor to rainfall
intensity so far being the sharp instability gradient as SBCAPE
above 250 J/kg is confined to areas south of the analyzed warm
front. In general, the rainfall this morning has been of moderate
intensity, but a few regions of training across IA, MN, and SD
have resulted in 12-hr MRMS rainfall as much as 3-4 inches and
saturated soils.

During the next few hours, a wave of low pressure developing along
the warm front will track northeast, leading to acceleration of
the downstream low-level wind field. This will result in 850mb
winds surging to 30-35 kts, forcing more pronounced isentropic
ascent as the warm front lifts northward in response. At the same
time, this will draw more intense thermodynamics northward, with
PWs above 2 inches (a daily record if measured) and MUCAPE above
1000 J/kg reaching as far north as the Twin Cities this evening.
This will allow for a rapid expansion of convection as reflected
by high res CAMs simulated reflectivity, and in this robust
environment both the HREF and REFS suggest a high probability
(60-70%) of rainfall rates exceeding 1"/hr, with 15-min rainfall
from the HRRR potentially accumulating to 0.5 - 0.75 inches (brief
3"/hr rates). Although 0-6km mean winds will remain progressive at
20-25 kts, Corfidi vectors aligned to the warm front could produce
2-3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts above 4 inches
possible.

Rainfall already this morning, as noted above, has been locally
3-4 inches, with widespread 0.5-1 inch also measured via MRMS.
This has saturated the top soils across most of the area according
to the HRRR, likely lowering FFG even beyond the analyzed
1-2"/3hrs. Even in areas that have not been as saturated, HREF
3-hr exceedance probabilities reach 20-30%, further suggestive of
the increasing flash flood risk into this evening. However, the
greatest potential for impacts will be across urban areas or
beneath any longer-term training.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6Pg2UHEt3tlvhorApDLJ_LaL9xiX2f_7IFT-UYoPJjsR8ng3iEJXj1MXcQzROIt5EryC= 9XEs1PvDxXJ2V1UN8dulnpY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...ARX...DLH...DMX...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45749319 45419178 44879111 44159113 43839138=20
43339206 42759358 42599531 42819665 43359770=20
43919788 44539711 44879628 45339504=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251956
FFGMPD
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-260155-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0514
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Areas affected...Central and northeast NE, far southeast SD, and
far northwest IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251955Z - 260155Z

SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage this afternoon and early evening, while also training
over similar areas across central and northeast Nebraska. Hourly
rainfall rates up to around 2.5" are possible as well as the
potential for rainfall totals up to 4-5", which would promote
possible scattered instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Cooling cloudtops are evident in GOES-East infrared
satelitte this afternoon as thunderstorms form along a convergent
surface trough/boundary south of a frontal boundary stretching
across the Upper Midwest and northern Plains. Precipitable Water
values are high in the region and are estimated between 1.7-2.0",
which equates to above the 90th climatological percentile
according to the 00z GEFS and ECENS. Additionally, moist southerly
850mb flow of 20-25kts continues to funnel these elevated moisture
values into the surface trough where thunderstorms can focus.

The most important aspect of this setup is the upwind propagation
vectors are parallel to this surface boundary and out of the
southwest, which should promote training of thunderstorms. An
instability gradient also rides along this boundary with SBCAPE
values of 3000-4500 J/kg per SPC's mesoanalysis just to the south
and in the inflow of these thunderstorms from south-central
Nebraska to western Iowa.

18z HRRR and 12z HREF seem to be handling the convection well so
far and depict the potential for hourly rates locally up to 2.5"
and scattered coverage of rainfall totals over 3". Maximum amounts
could approach 5" by 02Z tonight if should better training of
storms materialize. This area has seen rainfall lately with MRMS
analyzing an area of around 3" in central Nebraska over the last
24 hrs. 3-hr FFG is also relatively low and below 3", even as low
as 1-1.5". Given the environmental setup and antecedent
conditions, scattered instances of flash flooding are possible and
most likely over urban regions, low-lying areas, and locations
that saw heavy rain over the last 24 hrs.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6B_Y9p_f84qhpYdrtpRqh7T6PafJvwcWvHeX_CWBewcXXtiMs0LgpEqjk5fRI-qlV1cX= PHx6UX7z2-wZwDv3qqIMqr4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...GID...GLD...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42959656 42899532 42419492 41829571 41059727=20
40169945 40360046 41240006 42359836=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 252217
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-260415-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0515
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
616 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Areas affected...Northern Iowa, Southeast Minnesota, and
west-central Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 252215Z - 260415Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
through early tonight across portions of the Upper Midwest, while
also containing intense rainfall rates up to 2"/hr and the
potential for totals up to 4". These rainfall amounts may lead to
scattered instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...A low pressure system was analyzed across southern
Minnesota at 21z with an attached warm front extending eastward
into western and southern Wisconsin while a cold front extended
westward into southern South Dakota. Recent radar and satellite
observations depict numerous strong to severe thunderstorms in the
warm sector across southeastern Minnesota and into northern Iowa,
with moderate to locally heavy stratiform rain north of the low
pressure system and attached warm front. These thunderstorms are
estimated to contain maximum hourly rainfall rates up to 2"/hr in
localized spots and are moving generally east-northeastward.
Instability is abundant across Iowa with SBCAPE values of
4000-5000 J/kg as broad southerly flow helps place this
instability perfectly in the inflow of ongoing storms. PWs also
remain high and between 1.9-2.2" per SPC's mesoanalysis page,
which would place it above the 90th climatological percentile.

21Z HRRR and 20Z experimental RRFS differ somewhat in the exact
location of heaviest amounts, but both agree on up to 4" of total
rainfall from these storms. 6-hr FFG are around 2-4" so this
plants a scenario where isolated to scattered instances of flash
flooding are possible. The upwind propagation vectors do have a
northwesterly component so while brief training of storms is
ongoing across northern Iowa and southeast MN, these storms should
become more progressive as we get into the late evening.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!65jnbVfWIvUprhnJ7gDLT2GDH9E1dVTXxeqSxEdMauFfvzZzh480LJP-Mjeq0rNg7d2k= 8PucvUm-zwAwydU_7yZVQlM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...GRB...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45339175 44889028 44228951 43518968 42859122=20
42449294 42219429 42299518 42769530 43409449=20
44209363 45209285=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 252356
FFGMPD
SDZ000-WYZ000-260555-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0516
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
755 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Areas affected...South-central into southwest South Dakota and far
northeast Wyoming

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 252355Z - 260555Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms along a stationary boundary
are expected to merge with approaching convection ejecting
eastward out of the High Plains this evening, with the potential
for 1.5-2"/hr rainfall rates and scattered totals up to 4" across
south-central South Dakota. This may lead to a few instances of
flash flooding, particularly for areas with soils primed from
previous rainfall today.

DISCUSSION...A stationary boundary analyzed at 23Z draped across
southern South Dakota has been aiding to anchor slow-moving storms
in southwestern South Dakota this afternoon and should see
convection continue, while also interacting with convection
ejecting eastward from northeast Wyoming. MRMS depicts a few of
these storms have produced anywhere from 1.5-3.0" this afternoon.

Aside from the lifting mechanisms associated with the stationary
boundary in the area, this part of the country remains in the RFQ
of an upper jet streak and in an area of elevated PWs in the
1.0-1.5" range (above climatology). Instability and effective bulk
shear also remain modest with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and
effective shear of 40-50 kts in western SD. Therefore,
thunderstorms should be able to maintain strength for several
hours after sunset and should contain efficient rainfall rates to
potentially lead to scattered flash flooding. The experimental
RRFS and REFS seem to have somewhat better handle on current
convection compared to other CAMs. The REFS also happens to have
the highest probabilities for 3-hr rainfall amounts greater than
3" by 06z tonight. These greatest chances occur within a region
where 3-hr FFG in south-central South Dakota are in the 1.5-3"
range. Given atmospheric and soil conditions as well as current
radar trends, there exists the potential for isolated flash
flooding chances early tonight.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7xRPBf3tA4vWBos6qybKaeni01YvYhj4ZsBmz2Dah6Yc-Lubk-BOCkDGxRjN5RWGQxdb= hcU_zMR6fE2Q5VXl8c4En-M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 45130315 44530143 44009991 43669956 43239990=20
43070141 43200338 43640420 44300447 44890422=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260145
FFGMPD
IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-260745-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0517
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
944 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Areas affected...Much of central and eastern Nebraska, far
northern Kansas, and western Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 260145Z - 260745Z

SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorm activity combined with renewed
convection tonight associated with an approaching upper shortwave
trough is expected to continue the threat for scattered flash
flooding. Additional rainfall totals in excess of 3" appear likely
in spots, which should spawn new and renewed scattered instances
of flash flooding across already saturated parts of central
Nebraska into western Iowa.

DISCUSSION...Overall setup remains similar to this afternoon and
early evening with a well-defined outflow boundary depicted by
GOES-EAST IR satellite imagery stretching from central Iowa into
southern Nebraska, focusing convection overruning to the north
while progressing northeastward. Meanwhile, an approaching upper
shortwave over the central/northern High Plains is responsible for
scattered convection currently over western Nebraska and eastern
Colorado. This activity is expected to enter central Nebraska by
about 04Z or so along with scattered thunderstorms maintaining
along the instability gradient associated with the aforementioned
outflow boundary.

PWs remain elevated and in the 1.6-2.1" range (well above
climatology), along with MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg.
Meanwhile, mid-level southerly flow also remains modest around
25-30 kts and should increase with time in response to the
approaching shortwave and nocturnal low level jet. This should aid
in isentropic ascent and greater coverage of intense rainfall
rates. Latest HRRR, HREF, and experimental RRFS/REFS are all in
line the potential for an additional 3" of rain over areas that
have received 2-4" of rainfall over the last 24 hours per MRMS.
FFG in this region depicts many areas with 3-hrly values under 2"
and the 18z HREF has a stripe of 30-60 percent exceedence
probabilities (although probably displaced a bit too far to the
north given the latest southerly trends and sinking outflow
boundary). For this reason, additional scattered flash flooding
tonight is deemed likely.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5q5aAHo5jtn0N35EVSziHMQXrr0MRrchagREUGdhs1Fkohxze_y7_Bk9lay9jrgn3Waq= oO5Lw8Yln8NkX_2reUX8z0U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...GID...GLD...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 42549705 42549530 41529504 40359693 39799887=20
39800057 40320153 41250136 42019923=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260747
FFGMPD
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-261346-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0518
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Areas affected...much of Nebraska, western Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 260746Z - 261346Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues - especially near Grand
Island, NE where 5-10 inches of rainfall has occurred over the
past 12 hours.

Discussion...Extensive flash flood impacts have occurred near
Grand Island, NE earlier, where a couple of convective bands began
to train over the region and produce 3-6 inches of rainfall over
the past 6 hours. Since that time, upscale growth and slight
weakening of convection across south-central Nebraska has enabled
the heaviest rain to propagate just east of the Grand Island
region.

Unfortunately, an upstream mid-level impulse and convergence on
the nose of 40-kt 850mb flow over Kansas to produce renewed
convection across west-central Nebraska. These storms will allow
for continued rainfall and perhaps another 1 inch of rain on top
of prior significant rainfall, potentially exacerbating impacts
near the Grand Island area. This additional rainfall risk will
persist for at least another 3 hours or so (through 1030Z/5:30am
CDT) until the upstream mid-level impulse passes the region.

Additional rainfall will persist east of Grand Island through
Columbus, Omaha Metro, and portions of western Iowa through 13Z/8a
CDT. Rain rates should remain relatively low with this activity
due to modest instability and appreciable (30-kt) movement,
although prior rainfall (as much as 3-5 inches along this axis)
have lowered FFG thresholds and made ground conditions
sensitive/conducive for excessive runoff. Another 1-2 inches of
rainfall along this axis could contribute to isolated/continued
flash flooding this morning.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!660RDQVwhQ_JLiGJwL0-ycC7Ntvk-y0Ae1_dO8cUkgI72PGxXmyuryxESTa5kOtl_LaH= MAyEbw4WCLQwH0U7emlxWsI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...GID...GLD...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43109403 42439339 41599368 40889554 40269810=20
40150037 40600098 41470061 42119875 42659595=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261550
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-262130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0519
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1149 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Areas affected...Northern & Western IA...Southern MN...Far Eastern
NEB...Far Southwest WI...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 261550Z - 262130Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered elevated convection with some repeating
elements will increase in coverage/surface rooting throughout the
afternoon with 1.5-2"/hr rates and streaks of 2-3.5" totals over
sensitive solids suggesting possible incidents of flash flooding
by 21z.

DISCUSSION...15z Surface analysis shows main surface low near
Norfolk, NEB with well defined cold front dragging southwest into
north-central KS east of Hill City; while downstream a pre-frontal
pressure trof, generally along the core of the deeper layer
moisture axis/warm conveyor belt extends from another weak low
near CKP through Omaha/Council Bluffs into northeast KS and is
well noted by alto-stratus deck with some isolated weaker
convective cores where sfc to boundary layer convergence is
maximized across western IA. East of that, clear skies in the
warm sector extend to the surface front being strongly reinforced
through differential heating with extensive low-stratus deck along
the eastern MN/IA border into the Driftless area of SW WI.=20
SBCAPEs are rising into the upper 3000s J/kg across the clearing,
though solid southerly WAA/ moisture flux along the pressure trof
of 35-40kts, isentropic ascent is starting to increase elevated
convective development along and downstream of the DPVA from the
upper-level trough. Combine this with highly favorable right
entrance ascent/divergence across NW IA into south-central MN,
convection will continue to develop/expand over the next few
hours.=20=20

Orientation of the frontal zone to the mean motion of the
shortwave combined with the steepened isentropes further east,
ascent pattern across north-central IA/southern-MN should see
greatest convective development with stronger/broader updrafts.=20
Combined with increasing flux convergence, efficient rainfall
production will support rates of 1.5-2"/hr fairly quickly in the
life-cycle. Additionally, the convergence axis will be broad and
fairly parallel to the boundary and deeper layer flow to support
some repeating cell motions/tracks. This will be key toward
increased overall rainfall totals nearing 3-3.5" locally given
individual cell motions may limit heavy rainfall duration to those
1.5-2" hourly totals.=20

Hydrologically, the area remains very saturated with much of IA
and southern MN having 0-40cm relative soil moisture ratios within
the 60-70% range, generally well into the 90th+ percentiles
helping to have confidence that hourly FFG values of 1-1.5" and
3hr at 1.5-2" within the area of concern. Combine this with the
narrow axis of training cells from last night from Colfax/Dodge,
NEB to Ida/Sac to Humbolt/Wright in IA and Fillmore, MN/Howard, IA
further compromising upper-soil uptake. Scattered incidents of
flash flooding will become increasingly likely toward 21z across
the MPD area.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5_8mSO93A9qsx1cGZVRKMn6SzeJ1LMzQavB1wSmR622XxfJ7gW1yebX37K1_RhN1vL43= U9kCrmT0t150CfHH2NLjUbk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44909147 44539068 43729072 43139170 42659272=20
41149501 40889599 41289672 41919666 42409646=20
43649553 44249460 44879298=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261945
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-270145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0520
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Areas affected...Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261945Z - 270145Z

SUMMARY...Increasing number of thunderstorms will producing
downpours containing hourly rainfall rates >2"/hr in some cases.
Flash flooding is possible in impacted areas, especially areas
with saturated soils and within more urbanized communities.

DISCUSSION...The Mid-Atlantic is caught between a series of
converging surface boundaries. A back-door cold front is
approaching from the east, marching through the Delaware Valley
and slowly making its way towards the northern neck of the
Chesapeake Bay. To the north and west, a stationary front and the
added help of a lake breeze off Lake Erie has triggered
thunderstorms over northeast Ohio that are tracking southeast into
western PA. Plus, strong surface based heating has been unfolding
across the region that is causing a burgeoning field of
cumulonimbus clouds along the Central Appalachians. The 12Z IAD
RAOB showed a convective temp of 93F, which most areas from
southeast PA on south through MD and into northern VA have all
reached as of 19Z. Storms are initiating within an environment
that is likely to have anywhere from 1,000-2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE
and PWs that range between 1.75" from western and central PA to

2.0" from the DC/Baltimore area on east to the northern DelMarVa

Peninsula. Vertical wind shear soundings show generally weak shear
aloft, making storm modes largely pulse-like in nature. However,
outflow boundaries emanating from these first batch of storms will
fire additional thunderstorms that congeal into larger clusters in
parts of the Mid-Atlantic this evening.

The 12Z HREF's probabilistic guidance is keying in on the greater
DC/Baltimore metro area on north into the Lower Susquehanna Valley
with the low-to-moderate chances (30-60%, highest probs in the DC
metro area on east to the MD Eastern Shore) for >3" of rainfall
between 21-03Z this evening. Farther west, thunderstorms
propagating southeast from western OH will be a focus for
additional thunderstorm development, as will areas along and north
of I-80 where differential heating is becoming more pronounced.
Some thunderstorms will be capable of producing >2"/hr rainfall
rates given the available instability and moisture parameters,
making places with sensitive soils (>80% 0-40cm soil saturation in
northern WV, western and central PA) and heavier urbanized
environments particularly susceptible to flash flooding this
evening. Thunderstorm coverage should begin to fade after 03Z
given the marginal vertical wind shear aloft and loss of daytime
heating.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!44u1H162CiRzIW4v0puCGh5DcWdvRc6LmTYRYg6EhoYVUNk91MbCXcA34YBafbFdAMhp= d-vo7yqUw7nQpuTKnICS2gE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...PHI...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41827623 41367525 40217554 39507507 38347547=20
37847628 37867748 37917902 38597966 40078014=20
40907993 41327907 41587753=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262100
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-270243-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0521
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
459 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Areas affected...Central WI...Northeast IA...Southeast MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 262058Z - 270243Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will increase along and north of a
frontal boundary draped over southern WI this afternoon and
evening. Repeating rounds of strong thunderstorms both along the
frontal boundary and with assistance from approaching storms from
the west may cause flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...20Z surface analysis shows the location of the
west-to-east oriented frontal boundary well, with a more organized
complex of storms over southeast MN as a remnant MCV tracks
towards central WI. Strong 925-850mb theta-e advection is underway
over the Upper Midwest and will slowly inch the stationary front
north as a warm front this evening. The influence of this
low-level theta-e advection is evident in the increasing MUCAPE
field in central WI as RTMA 3-hr trends show as much as 600-1,000
J/kg MUCAPE increases over the past 3-hours alone. The Upper
Midwest remains ideally positioned beneath the diffluent
right-entrance region of a 250mb jet streak and PWs are steadily
rising. By 00Z tonight, the highlighted region is expected to see
PWs range between 1.75-2.0", which is generally above the 97.5
climatological percentile per ECMWF ensemble guidance. With MUCAPE
along the boundary near 2,000 J/kg, and even areas as far north as
Green Bay likely to see up to 500 J/kg of MUCAPE, the stage is set
for widespread thunderstorms that could contain up to 2"/hr
rainfall rates.

Aiding in the efficient rainfall production is the presence of
vertical wind shear and helicity. Effective bulk shear values >40
kts and effective SRH values >100 m2/s2 support thunderstorms
potentially sustaining mesocyclones, which are very efficient
rainfall producers. In addition, low-mid level RH values are
averaging close to 90% and warm cloud layers per the 18Z RAP for
this evening are pegged to be as deep as 13,000ft. West-Central WI
also sports highly saturated soils with NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-40cm soil
moisture percentiles well above the 90th percentile. As isentropic
ascent and low-level moisture advection increase along and ahead
of the approaching surface trough, there is the concern for
repeated rounds of thunderstorms in parts of the region. Once the
cold front approaches the region between 00-02Z, storm motions
over central WI should be more continuous off to the north and
east. Until then, however, there is a concern for training storms
across portions of central WI, far southeast MN, and far northeast
IA. Flash flooding is possible this evening, particularly in areas
with sensitive soils and where storms train along and north of the
frontal boundary in southern WI.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9PrKLtHq8DOxC7ZqVoyNuSVkYvemtuwUdcwVPlfGhdVUgq7Y8wicvr8DPXOXC1wWkZbY= QRfdjODtG7KwXdqHL0K5LVg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45329101 45168840 44458740 43388785 43118856=20
43048972 42779142 43249248 43759278 44959268=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262202
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-270200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0522
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
601 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Areas affected...Eastern OH...Northern WV Panhandle...Southwest PA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 262200Z - 270200Z

SUMMARY...Ongoing clusters of storms to continue for the next
several hours, prolonging the flash flood threat into this evening.

DISCUSSION...Doppler radar shows scattered, slow-moving
thunderstorms from southwest Ohio and along the Ohio River on east
to far southwest Pennsylvania. The region does lie at the nose of
an unusually strong 50kt ESErly 200mb jet located over the
Southeast. This additional synoptic-scale influence is helping to
provide some upper-level support in a setup that is otherwise
heavily driven by daytime heating and nearby mesoscale boundaries
(outflows, lake breeze off Lake Eire most notably). Storms will
have as much as 2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE at their disposal through the
remainder of the afternoon and into this evening. PWs are also
ranging between 1.8-2.0", supporting the ongoing Excessive
Rainfall rates being observed in central and southwest OH.

Additional thunderstorms will likely come about as a result of
outflow boundaries emanating from ongoing convection, as well as
outflows colliding with other nearby outflow boundaries. Vertical
wind shear is light, making these storms highly dependent upon
cold-pool driven processes and congealing clusters of storms. With
a couple more hours of daylight to go, more storms are likely to
take advantage of the unstable/moist environment, as well as from
the help of an anomalous 200mb jet streak aloft. Additional rounds
of flash flooding are possible within the highlighted at-risk
region through the remainder of this afternoon.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-UI0_WE3YdeAaBCDjVGjANfyRYBQFeXH5JajsrwAlwZTdOES9OzNsTm49MaLSml6A27O= tbOy6cI2LB89R-hplSgwzlo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40848340 40828140 40528027 39738023 39118046=20
38578168 38708279 38668375 39568409 40608399=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262256
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-270300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0523
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
655 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Areas affected...Southern & Central WV...Southwest VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 262255Z - 270300Z

SUMMARY...As rounds of slow moving strong thunderstorms continue
to flare up this afternoon, additional areas of flash flooding are
possible. Areas along steep terrain are most at-risk, as well as
in low-lying valleys.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms flaring up across southwest VA and
southern WV have had a history of producing Excessive Rainfall
rates with some elevated streamflow magnitudes evident in and
around the Radford, VA area. The environment remains favorable for
at least several more hours with mesoanalysis showing MLCAPE
values between 1,000-2,000 J/kg and PWs of 1.7-1.9" for much of
the highlighted area. These storms are also feeling the effects of
a rather strong ESErly 200mb jet located over the Carolinas. These
winds are unusual in terms of both strength its direction (ESE)
which may be allowing for enhanced upper-level divergence over the
region. Additional thunderstorm development will be largely due to
outflow boundaries and congealing cold pools. The lack of
sufficient vertical wind shear should keep these storms relatively
short-lived (1-2 hours generally), but given the environmental
parameters and some synoptic-scale support aloft, as much as 2-4"
worth of rainfall could occur within the next few hours within the
more intense storms. With that said, additional flash flooding is
possible for the remainder of the afternoon and into this evening.
Areas most at-risk are within low-lying valleys or along steep
terrain.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4zH1lzES44c8WhQPNcoHxBUmakDdQj_gL4LajHoUlUdGRQj6MiOBPUM1mmo9otuxz60o= PoUzXPapyo8V70w4TgTLPhk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39238006 38417985 37887970 37317950 36928001=20
36948088 37148183 37698229 38398226 38728112=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270154
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-270450-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0524
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
952 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Areas affected...Northern VA...Eastern MD

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270150Z - 270450Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue across portions of northern
VA and eastern MD for a few more hours. Hourly rainfall rates up
to 2"/hr are possible with urbanized areas most prone to flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...Outflow boundaries emanating from several different
afternoon thunderstorm complexes have collided over northern VA,
while a cold front races in from the DelMarVa Peninsula. This cold
front is helping to ignite thunderstorms near Annapolis while the
outflows have triggered storms from the southern Capital Beltway
on west to the south of Interstate 66. The 00Z IAD RAOB shows
depicts a more tropical air-mass aloft, highlighted by PWs of
2.34" and MUCAPE >3,500 J/kg. This atmospheric setup is resulting
in tropical-downpour rainfall rates with MRMS 15-minute
radar-estimated rainfall rates ranging between 0.5-1.0" within the
storms stretching from Routes 28 & 17 on east towards the MD
Eastern Shore. The lack of vertical wind shear should ultimately
lead to these cells dissipating within the next few hours.
However, these storms are packing quite the punch with >2.0"/hr
rainfall amounts likely to be realized in some of these areas. The
flash flood threat continues across northern VA on east to the MD
Eastern Shore this evening with the more urbanized communities
within the "DMV" most at-risk for flooding should storms ensue
over more densely populated locations.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-3uVZE8jo8fpOXVfUcofGTXdgVnK-OgMeMcVQbJm7ATeJrEqQF5NbhcCbTw4m8SkDQZ1= nCxzP2WssMx6sm3QhsL_Q30$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...PHI...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39157657 39157618 38967600 38677591 38467602=20
38137631 37907662 37577726 37427752 37337803=20
37397831 37517855 37707882 37827904 38027932=20
38357925 38597901 38807864 38977821 39117766=20
39127715=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270510
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-270908-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0525
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
109 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...northern/central Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270508Z - 270908Z

Summary...A complex of strong convection near/northeast of Kansas
City was prompting training storms and areas of 1.5+ inch/hr rain
rates. Flash flooding is possible as storms migrate from west to
east across the discussion area through 09Z/4am CDT.

Discussion...Over the past hour or so, convection along an axis
from near Topeka, KS to near Kirksville, MO has grown upscale into
a linear complex oriented parallel to modest steering flow aloft.=20
The presence of 25 knots of 850mb flow has also aided in
organization while maintaining influx of a very moist/unstable
airmass (2+ inch PW values and 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) into the complex.
A series of weak midlevel shortwave troughs just upstream of the
complex have also fostered continued convective development. The
orientation of the cells has fostered training, with recent MRMS
estimates of 2 inch/hr rain rates now noted about 30 miles
southwest of CDJ/Chillicothe, MO.

Despite modest boundary layer cooling, both observations and model
guidance suggest that the ongoing complex should continue for at
least another 2-4 hours tonight while continuing to maintain an
orientation for training cells. 2 inch/hr rain rates should
continue to threaten FFG thresholds across the region while
translating very slowly southward and eastward in tandem with the
complex. The orientation/propagation of the complex should spread
the risk of heaviest rainfall toward the I-70 corridor in central
Missouri through 09Z/4am CDT. Flash flooding will also remain
possible through that time.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7DoO1EKEqme3-4D7dNd9oThczapU6sVC65R8Rxs7OBBlVoKxYJiaEMeMjzKAMtFQvZ2T= y7DVdGrOAFb8fN8U7gHGljc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39739370 39579222 39139136 38619153 38599392=20
38989467 39429485=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271529
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-272100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0526
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1129 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...Middle TN...Northern AL...South-central KY...Adj
Northeast MS & Northwest GA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271530Z - 272100Z

SUMMARY...Highly focused/efficient heavy rain bursts with
localized 2-2.5" in less than 90 minutes may pose similarly
focused incidents of flash flooding, particularly near urban
areas.

DISCUSSION...A very humid/unstable airmass exists across Middle TN
extending into south-central KY and northern AL. GOES-E WV suite
shows a very broad, well defined TUTT (Tropical upper-tropospheric
trough) cell retrograding across the southeast with the core over
central GA attm; resulting in an area of enhanced low to mid-level
moisture (per CIRA LPW) and clearing across the area of concern.=20
Thermal profiles denote solid saturation, weak capping and just
small adjustments of the surface profiles result in large MLCAPE
values over 3000-4000 J/kg. With solid morning insolation in the
clearing east of the outer cirrus deck of the TUTT cells,
temperatures are already reaching required values for convective
initiation reaching mid-80s and Tds in the mid to upper 70s.=20
Visible imagery and RADAR mosaic show the incipient boiling Tcu
expanding across southern Middle TN into N AL. Combined with the
best heating, there is some modest upper-level divergence at the
western exit of the 40-50kt 3H jet on the northeast side of the
TUTT before it arcs northward across central KY. As such,
stronger updrafts will become scattered to numerous but given weak
inflow in the low levels should remain narrow initially.

Overall vertical loading of the available moisture given strength
of the updraft should support wet-microburst/pulse downdrafts
capable of 2-2.25" totals in sub-hourly to hourly duration.=20
Outflows will trigger next updraft development and any colliding
outflows will result in a larger slab ascent for the subsequent
up/downdraft cycles; though similar results are likely to occur of
up to 2" totals. Overall the pattern support a broad outward
propagation from the initial centroid over southern TN/N AL more
in line with the 12z ARW solutions.=20

Any flash flooding is likely to be limited in areal coverage
(though broadening slightly with each cycle/broader downdrafts,
but still sub-county focused); with greatest potential across
impermeable surfaces near urban centers. However, 1hr FFG values
are in the 1.5-2" range across S TN/northern AL where 0-40cm
relative making potential a bit greater in these areas.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!63GCCt2wWdVbrzxIQgMnreX_Gls426haxKUJ5YmUot8d5SR6BCXB7_oIlOoCQyrz95hR= 4L-_vWHRmxS38hSR6jrG_cU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...
PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37668597 37468452 36938414 36328424 35578470=20
34578524 33828582 33498674 33878818 34658876=20
35698870 36788797 37398707=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271652
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-272300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0527
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1251 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...Eastern WV...Western and Northwestern
VA...Western PA...Far Western MD...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 271700Z - 272300Z

SUMMARY...Incidents of flash flooding, potentially significant,
are likely to increase over the next few hours in complex/steep
terrain.=20

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible imagery shows well defined CAD due to
back-door cold front dropping through the Mid-Atlantic this
morning. The cold front has pressed to just south of the VA/NC
boarder and has banked up through the Blue Ridge toward the
Eastern Continental Divide Ridge in the wind field but the stratus
deck leaves about 25-50 miles of gap of clearing with strong Td
gradient even a few more miles further into the stratus deck. As
such, surface Tds to low to mid-70s are pooled along the front
from SW NY across W PA into the central Appalachian Range. As
further insolation occurs temperatures are rising into the low to
mid-80s and modified (deeply saturated) 12z RAOB profiles from PBZ
and RAP suggest solid MLCAPEs of 2000 J/kg are probable toward
peak in the next hour or two even with a narrow-skinny profile.=20
Total moisture profiles remain above normal in the 1.75-2" range.=20


Upstream, the tail end of enhanced moisture and low-level
southwesterly speed max provided enough ascent to break out a
cluster of thunderstorms which is starting to develop southward
into SE OH; this is a timing of enhanced upslope flow from the
west with increased moisture/higher theta-E air downstream of the
main upper-level trof over the Great Lakes. This will combine
with strengthening upslope flow from the moist post-frontal 'cold'
air damming (CAD) further strengthening moisture flux convergence
to break out scattered to numerous thunderstorms across W PA
toward E WV/NW VA. This is likely to persist throughout the
afternoon into evening given upstream trof strength and
approaching height-falls. So while deep layer steering may lead
to eastward propagation into the stable air across central PA into
the Capital District region, favorable upstream
redevelopment/flanking line support is probable for multiple
up/downdraft cycles with main motions driven by cold pools/outflow
likely southward into west-central VA/SE WV through the evening
hours. Total deep layer moisture, strong updraft/unstable
environment will support solid flux to support 2"/hr rates and
given the aforementioned motions this may support localized totals
of 2-4" in short-duration. Given complex cell motions and shear
rainfall intensity expected, an incident or two of considerable to
significant flash flooding is plausible as well.

Given naturally lower FFG values due to complex terrain, flash
flooding is considered likely; yet, recent heavy rainfall will
further limit infiltration to the saturated deeper soil profiles,
especially in SW PA where 0-40cm soil moisture remains well into
the 90th percentile.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6tCpTMK-blfFSlmSnb5X2ivIL_Eei3kCEC7Y139eCbDnU8GpvmGbYuV65-PFrzjTKTEh= tk2ooJI7YemysqXdbLvCxzY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41917883 41507851 40387890 39577797 39037791=20
38607814 37817889 37098013 37348123 38178071=20
39687991 40358027 41198027 41617949=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271731
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-272230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0528
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...Northeast OH...Northwest PA...Western Upstate
NY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271730Z - 272230Z

SUMMARY...Narrow corridor of unstable air. Multiple rounds of efficient/intense thunderstorms may result in spots of 2-4" and
possible localized flash flooding through the evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E shows developing thunderstorms within a narrow
unstable axis between the colder Lower Great Lakes and a strong
differential heating boundary due to low level stratus across
central NY and PA. Insolation has lead to temperatures reaching
the mid-80s, but return southerly flow both along the western edge
of the stratus and southwesterly upslope flow out of the Ohio
Valley continues to transport fairly moist low level moisture into
the mid-70s. Short-wave ridge aloft is starting to shift out of
the region, though oblique right entrance ascent pattern remains
across the area to help to aid updrafts starting to develop
upstream of the mean height-falls across northern OH. As such a
narrow axis of 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPEs exists along the Lakes
and will act to corral upstream development helping increase the
potential for cells to repeat/train as the main forcing presses
through this evening.

The downstream cells are likely to remain fairly stationary given
upstream propagation vectors with south/southwesterly inflow and
strong stability gradient to the east. Total deep layer moisture
nearing 2", will support efficient rainfall and rates of
1.75-2"/hr. Given the development environment/potential for
repeating, there is potential for some localized totals of 2-4",
which may result in possible incidents of flash flooding through
the afternoon into evening hours especially in proximity to larger
urban centers.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7vWCktZ-AWBMfgI_do6X0cG-RFDKQF_MdUkknzCl76oituZYuCEDMiNNv4aF71OPRUhp= WwR-NRwaolM2xGyPNBskE2Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43387739 42967668 42107748 41297919 40588163=20
41368223 42048066 42677922 43327901=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271803
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-280000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0529
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
203 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...The Ozarks

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271801Z - 280000Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms expanding across Missouri will
intensify through the afternoon. Rainfall rates may peak above
2"/hr at times within these slow moving storms, possibly leading
to instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows
convection rapidly expanding along what appears to be an old
outflow boundary downstream of a cold front draped NE to SW across
southern Missouri. Ascent along this boundary is occurring due to
convergence, but is being aided by synoptic lift through the RRQ
of a jet streak arcing to the northeast and a shortwave moving
eastward across KS. This lift is impinging into robust
thermodynamics characterized by a ribbon of PWs of over 2 inches,
near record for the date, combined with SBCAPE over 3000 J/kg
fueled by steep lapse rates within the 850-600mb layer noted on
the morning regional UA soundings. In this environment,
thunderstorms have rapidly blossomed, with additional updrafts
quickly expanding as noted on the GOES-E day-cloud phase RGB,
suggesting the rain rates that are currently estimated to be above
2"/hr from KSGF will only intensify the next few hours.

Storms that have developed already are not moving quickly. The
0-6km mean wind is only around 10 kts to the NE, but more
concerning are Corfidi vectors aligned anti-parallel to the mean
wind and collapsed to just 5 kts or less. This is dictating the
slow storm motion already noted, and will support backbuilding of
echoes into the greater instability to the SW as 850mb inflow
remains from the W/SW at 10-20 kts. This will result in some areas
receiving multiple rounds, or experiencing a long duration, of
heavy rainfall. With the HREF (REFS) probabilities for 2"/hr
reaching 20-30% (30-50%), this suggests brief rain rates of 3"/hr
are also likely, which is additionally supported by HRRR 15-min
rainfall peaking around 0.75" through this evening. Where these
rates train or stall through backbuilding, 2-3" of rainfall is
expected, with locally as much as 5" possible.

The slow movement of these intense rates could quickly overwhelm
soils leading to runoff, especially in urban areas. However, NASA
SPoRT 0-40cm soil moisture also reflects recent wetness across the
area, as soil moisture near the AR/MO border and into far eastern
OK are in the 80th-90th percentile. Despite FFG that is quite high
across the region (2.5-4"/3hrs), there is at least a 20-30% chance
of exceedance due to the slow movement of these intense rain
rates, further suggesting the increasing flash flood risk through
this evening.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4Vh1-2_CCShQunh7CZpg9lXZ8zlwnD-xm7TXgSoFXQ0Snjn1HT9n5l4qJTVQO1-kDfOw= mpb4JEReYSI6G0ZNSE7B3oo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38689096 38559036 38109002 37728990 37079024=20
36249096 35739195 35489287 35449416 35609524=20
35819583 36269632 36779633 37219599 37589502=20
38039353=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271813
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-280000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0530
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
212 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico...Western Texas Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271815Z - 280000Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorm clusters (mainly near mountain
ranges) capable of 1.5"/hr rates and localized totals to 2.5" may
induce flash flooding conditions, especially

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible imagery shows convective activity
breaking through old convective debris in proximity to axis of
deep layer enhanced moisture. CIRA LPW notes return surface
moisture has pushed up through the Davis mountains toward the
southern Sacramento Range with upper 50s to low 60F Tds; the
850-500mb layers, show the core axis of moisture though the
southwestern edge of the exiting northern stream trough and the
western edge/influence of the Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough
(TUTT) cell over S Nuevo Leon; bring overall moisture totals to
1.25-1.5" around the 90-95th percentile. The old MCV appears to
be providing solid deep layer confluence/convergence in proximity
to the terrain for enhanced upslope for stronger thunderstorm
activity and with ample buoyancy with 1000+ J/kg of CAPE, moisture
flux will support rates of 1-1.5"/hr in the cores.

With the shortwave/old MCV in close proximity and deep layer
steering generally weak, drawing toward the northeast; cell
motions will be slow to allow for further duration along the
terrain and supporting localized totals up to 2-2.5", with highest probabilities within the Davis Mountains into the southern
Sacramento Range. This places a few fresher burn scars at risk of
being hit further enhancing the potential of rapid runoff and
mud/debris slides. As such, flash flooding is considered possible
through the late evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_v6QSyi7DecHMe43juVS_Xl6PN0XsbUbhKR7HuAyDdGYc7PA_Pi3pit4JJHjIpLokUtI= NmPgsEoAjxod_IbjZwxM3vc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34350560 33910486 33660387 33620316 32880314=20
32590358 32160375 31460333 30680299 30280307=20
30000352 29950405 30340471 30830515 31170557=20
31760592 32580611 33180646 33950626=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271841
FFGMPD
FLZ000-280045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0531
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
241 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271845Z - 280045Z

Summary...Slow moving thunderstorms along the sea breeze boundary
will drift slowly westward or stall through the evening. Rainfall
rates of 2-3+"/hr are likely, which could result in isolated
rainfall amounts approaching 5". Isolated flash flooding is
possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows
widespread showers and thunderstorms ongoing along the east coast
of the Florida Peninsula. These storms are blossoming within
impressive thermodynamics characterized by SBCAPE of 3000-5000
J/kg overlapped with PWs above 2 inches. Although deep layer
ascent is modest beneath an upper ridge, convergence along this
sea breeze will continue to force updrafts to drive convection,
with additional storms developing along outflows and storm mergers
within a region of weak 0-6km bulk shear.

Radar-estimated rainfall rates from KMLB have been as high as
2"/hr already this aftn, but storm lifetimes have been short in
the pulse environment. This is likely to remain the evolution
through tonight, but guidance indicates that a plume of enhanced
bulk shear may spread into eastern FL this evening, helping to
force at least modest storm organization as outflows and storm
mergers occur. This could enhance the duration of heavy rainfall
in a few areas as clusters move chaotically across the region due
to the offsetting motion between the westward advancing sea breeze
and mean S/SW 0-6km wind. With rainfall rates forecast by both the
HREF and REFS to have a moderate chance (40-60%) of exceeding
2"/hr, and the HRRR 15-min rainfall indicates up to 1" at times
(short duration 4"/hr rainfall), these slow motions could produce
2-4" of rain with higher amounts above 5" possible (10-20% chance)
in isolated locations.

There remains uncertainty into exactly where the heaviest rain
will occur through this evening, but the pinned sea breeze and
resultant clusters of storms should force the focus to be from the
Space Coast southward as shown by HREF and REFS PMM, and supported
by the synoptic flow. While FFG is high across the area, should
any of these storms stall across the urban east coast, instances
of flash flooding could result.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6OhYw0UuIKzzosHS_vuSFQyotQ3x8U_v3PGqXJG0XXBnjiv6SHB_7E0ME90OhGvOzZp1= jV55Kr030FeoCFfoZ1T4m3E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29348116 29138085 28498036 28018026 26847986=20
26187995 25658018 25488036 25618048 25948073=20
26408098 26958121 27648140 28348149 28998140=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 272035
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-OHZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-280230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0532
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
434 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...Central to Southern Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272033Z - 280230Z

Summary...Scattered pulse thunderstorms will develop through the
evening across the Central and Southern Appalachians. Rainfall
rates may briefly reach 3"/hr, producing short duration rainfall
of 1-2". This could result in instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E visible imagery this afternoon shows
widespread convective development across the Appalachians. In
general, these cells are discrete and scattered in a weakly forced
environment, but local enhancement due to terrain features or
storm mergers/outflow collisions have resulted in scattered
clusters across the region as well. Thermodynamics today are
favorable for heavy rainfall as PWs of 1.5 to 1.75 inches are
collocated with SBCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. Forcing for ascent is
generally provided via low-level upslope flow into the terrain and
surface convergence along mergers/collisions, but weak diffluence
aloft is also providing modest ascent in the area. Together, this
ascent working into the favorable environment has produced
radar-estimated rain rates of 1.5 to 2 inches per hour.

The CAMs are in generally good agreement that scattered
thunderstorms will continue to develop and move chaotically
through loss of instability or convective overturning this
evening. Mean 0-6km winds of just 5-10 kts combined with minimal
bulk shear will provide a setup that supports primarily pulse
convection with limited temporal duration. However, both the HREF
and REFS ensembles indicate a moderate to high chance (50-70%) of
at least 1"/hr rates leading to short-term rainfall as much as
1-2", and 15-min rainfall from the HRRR as much as 0.75" (brief
3"/hr rates). With storms expected to just drift across the area,
any storm that occurs atop sensitive terrain or more urban areas
could result in instances of flash flooding.

While the threat is expected to be generally isolated, there is
some potential in the next few hours of a more focused area of
convection in KY and eastern TN. Here, pulse storms developing to
the east will drift NW (along with outflows) and potentially merge
with clusters coming out of the west. Some merging of these cells
is shown, albeit with a lot of spatial spread, on the HRRR,
NAM3km, and RRFS, which could briefly enhance the convection and
accompanying heavy rainfall rate. Should this occur over some of
the more sensitive soils (FFG as low as 1.5-2"/3hrs) it could
cause a slightly higher risk for instances of flash flooding than
the more isolated pulse type storms forecast across most of the
area.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5i5gGy-GjUUQ_3mf5l7eCJCUSsq73Lp0t65-bkUqYqqbT4H_31ah0VArZtE9Ma0vKEPn= pTdpHPl5fO6pdtLYlmQDyg0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38768309 38568231 38268169 38058093 37368059=20
36588093 35798137 35338181 34908248 34538358=20
34528441 34818500 35458507 37038477 38368414=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 272135
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-280200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0533
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
534 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...Western Kentucky, Central and Western Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272133Z - 280200Z

Summary...Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will continue to
lift slowly northward into the evening. Rainfall rates of 2"/hr or
more will result in 1-3" of rain with locally higher amounts
possible. This may result in instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic shows clusters of
thunderstorms continuing to move slowly across central and western
Tennessee this evening, with additional storms pushing into
southern Kentucky. This convection has been ongoing for several
hours, but is maintaining intensity due to 925-850mb winds drawing
more robust thermodynamics (PWS 1.9 inches and SBCAPE above 3000
J/kg) northward for support. Convection is continuing to deepen
and regenerate as noted via the GOES-E day-cloud phase RGB which
shows both fresh updrafts and overshooting tops in a region of
increased Lightning Cast probabilities. Rainfall rates within this
convection have been estimated via KOHX and KHPX WSR-88Ds to
exceed 2, and even 3, inches per hour this aftn.

During the next few hours, despite the modest 850mb inflow (15
kts), convection should sustain as it lifts slowly northward in
advance of a weak shortwave across south-central TN. Weak overall
forcing and negligible bulk shear will maintain generally pulse
type thunderstorms, but mergers and outflow collisions will help
support at least periodic brief organization into clusters, and
result in additional convective development. Rainfall rates should
remain intense, reaching 2-3"/hr at times as reflected by HREF and
REFS probabilities, with HRRR 15-min rainfall exceeding 0.75" in
some places suggesting brief rates even above 3"/hr. With storm
motions progged to remain slow on 0-6km mean winds of just 5-10
kts, this could cause total rainfall of 1-3" with locally higher
amounts in some areas.

Soil moisture across TN and KY is generally above normal according
to NASA SPoRT, reaching above the 90th percentile with respect to
0-40cm depths in some areas. However, extrapolating out the
current reflectivity for several hours, and combining this with
the HREF/REFS probabilities for 3"/6hrs, suggests the greatest
risk for heavy rain will actually occur atop the less sensitive
antecedent soils of western KY and TN. This may somewhat limit the
flash flood risk as the FFG is higher across those areas. However,
the slow movement of these intense rainfall rates, at least
through the onset of nocturnal stabilization, could still promote
instances of flash flooding even as they become become more
isolated the next few hours.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-TEmpHV95G-AZyzDNgB1RAWIIq1eQi8AKnFAmyuECQWjh0mqCfy4-T9YqJFvpeBgipjZ= tQ3tiVyj9nO7j0QNANEw_W0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...HUN...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38028600 37458537 36728473 35968479 35088506=20
34918541 34998572 35278638 35518702 35398809=20
35168889 35078979 35449004 36408944 37318866=20
37968720=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 272252
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-280400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0534
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
652 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...Central Appalachians and interior Mid-Atlantic
states

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272251Z - 280400Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage along a stalled front through this evening. Rainfall
rates within this convection will increase to 1-2"/hr, producing
1-3" of rain in just a few hours, with locally higher amounts
possible. This rain falling atop saturated soils and sensitive
terrain may result in flash flooding.

Discussion...The fading GOES-E visible imagery this evening
combined with the GLM flash-extent lightning density product
indicate that convection is continuing to expand and intensify
across the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. These storms are
developing most robustly within areas not worked over by aftn
thunderstorms, especially across VA and eastern WV where SBCAPE
above 3000 J/kg is sampled by the SPC RAP analysis. This
instability is working in tandem with PWs of 1.7 to 1.9 inches,
well above the 90th percentile according to the SPC sounding
climatology, to support intense rain rates. Into these
thermodynamics, ascent is being produced by broad height falls
downstream of a longwave trough axis to the west, modestly
diffluent 300mb flow, and most impressively by upslope/isentropic
ascent of the low-level winds emerging out of the SW. This SW flow
is impinging into a stalled back door type cold front, creating an
impressive theta-e and instability gradient into which storms are
expected to strengthen.

During the next few hours, convection over PA/WV should wane in
response to nocturnal overturning within a lack of significant
bulk shear. However, areas to the south from the Laurel Highlands
through the WV Panhandle and into central VA are likely to become
the focus for additional development. This is supported by the
simulated reflectivity of the CAMs, including recent HRRR and RRFS
runs. These solutions are favored as the evolution matches the
conceptual model for the next several hours, with storms
developing along the front and any outflows/mergers, and then
tracking slowly along the aforementioned gradients. With rain
rates expected to peak above 2"/hr (15-25% chance) and 15-min
rainfall peaking above 0.75" according to the HRRR, slow and
chaotic storm motions of just around 5 kts could result in 1-3" of
rainfall with locally higher totals.

This region has experienced well above normal rainfall the past 10
days, as evidenced by AHPS rainfall departures that are in some
places 150-300% of normal. This has produced widespread 0-40cm
soil moisture above the 95th percentile, further compromising FFG
below the natural sensitivity of the region due to terrain. This
further reflects the concern through early tonight as slow moving
torrential rain rates result in rapid runoff and potential
instances of flash flooding.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7o1o6Sm_X2AtsGzhseKab0cgQ5SlAV01Qg54KovfYKg9zmCIiRgVDzT9IatSxH--d9Bh= rj6Kj4Kg_GiOwka4BZIkcoc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41497931 41257868 40247835 39277838 38087830=20
37487817 36857828 36537863 36617936 37008018=20
37668078 38748089 39978071 41068002=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 280017
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-280430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0535
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
817 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...Northwest Georgia, Northern Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280016Z - 280430Z

Summary...Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will continue to
drift across Georgia and Alabama through the next several hours.
Rainfall rates may pulse up to 2-3"/hr at times during collisions,
potentially leading to instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...An impressive cluster of thunderstorms has developed
over northern GA this evening, while a secondary cluster of
slightly less intensity is drifting northward over central AL.
These thunderstorms are blossoming despite a weakly forced
environment in response to robust thermodynamics characterized by
PWs of above 1.75 inches overlapping MLCAPE of 2500 J/kg. Despite
modest ascent and negligible shear, leading to pulse type
convection, the robust environment is supporting rapid updraft
growth on outflow boundaries and during storm mergers, resulting
in the clusters currently analyzed on the regional radar mosaic. Radar-estimated rainfall rates have been extreme in northern GA,
more than 2.5"/hr, leading to rainfall of more than 2 inches in
the past hour at some of the local mesonet stations, and multiple
FFW issuances from WFO FFC.

The CAMs are struggling to handle the coverage of convection this
evening, leading to lower than typical confidence for the next few
hours. Although it is likely that convective overturning and a
loss of daytime heating/destabilization should result in a gradual
downturn of thunderstorm activity (coverage and intensity), the
environment for NW GA and northern AL appears favorable for a few
more hours of thunderstorms with intense rainfall rates, despite
minimal agreement in the CAMs about coverage or placement of
convection. Multiple outflow boundaries noted on the national
radar composite are all functioning as initiation points for
additional cells, and these may merge over northern AL. Where this
is progged to occur, MLCAPE is well over 2000 J/kg, and mean 0-6km
winds are just 5 kts with chaotic and collapsed Corfidi vectors.
This suggests that as storms develop along these boundaries, or
due to storm mergers, they will continue to support impressive
rainfall rates for which the HREF suggests have a 10-20% chance of
exceeding 2"/hr, leading to 15-min rainfall that may reach 0.75"
according to the HRRR (3"/hr rates). The slow and chaotic motion
of these will cause some places to get repeating rounds or a
longer duration of rain, causing as much as 3" of rain in a few
areas.

0-40cm soil moisture across much of AL and NW GA is saturated
above the 95th percentile, leading to FFG that is as low as
1.5-2"/3hrs, especially over northern AL. The intensity of the
anticipated rainfall, combined with the slow motion of developing
storms, could exceed these thresholds through around 04Z leading
to instances of flash flooding.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-B7HvunQMIyxYTw1yPmMFjBTsLI2FbLkQcZphIBR-RFhmN_RdIglxW0hZnGnsxHD4KIY= pImIXxKoEYZiK73I7YSIEiQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34908671 34808519 34558399 34098355 33358340=20
32758353 32538403 32528487 32878597 33288754=20
33528795 34208832 34898810=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 280134
FFGMPD
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-280700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0536
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
933 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...Eastern and Central North Dakota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280132Z - 280700Z

Summary...Supercells blossoming over North Dakota will steadily
intensify and grow upscale tonight. This convection will contain
rainfall rates that could exceed 2"/hr at times, leading to
stripes of 1-3" of rainfall. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic combined with the GLM flash
extent density product this evening shows a rapid uptick of both
coverage and intensity of thunderstorms across central North
Dakota. This activity is strengthening in response to increasing
ascent downstream of a shortwave moving out of western North
Dakota with additional ascent provided via the LFQ of a modest
upper jet streak and the slow increase in convergence along the
nose of the 850mb LLJ. This LLJ is still modest, measured via VWPs
across South Dakota at 20-25 kts from the south, but should
steadily climb the next several hours to 30-40 kts. This will not
only increase ascent, but also draw more impressive thermodynamics
northward as PWs surge to 1.75 inches and coincident with MUCAPE
surging to 3000 J/kg.

This evolution downstream of the developing thunderstorms should
promote an environment to support rapid growth and organization
across central and eastern North Dakota. As the LLJ ramps up to
improve the thermodynamics, it will additionally increase shear to
40-50 kts to support both supercells and potentially an MCS.
Although mean 0-6km winds are likely to remain progressive to the
east at 25-35 kts, aligned Corfidi vectors suggest training is
likely, especially along the typical SW flanks and outflows as
convection shifts east and the LLJ veers subtly more to the SW.
These intense thermodynamics will support rainfall rates for which
the HREF indicates has a 10-20% chance of exceeding 2"/hr, from
which the HRRR suggests 15-min rainfall could reach as high as 1"
(brief 4"/hr rates) despite the progressive nature of convection.

While the general fast motion of cells, at least in the next few
hours, should offset some of the flash flood potential, these
intense rainfall rates could still cause rapid runoff. This will
be most likely along any short-term training boundaries where
event total rainfall in the next several hours could be 1-3
inches, and 3-hr FFG exceedance probabilities peak above 25%.
Despite the uncertainty in the exact evolution reflected by
variability in the CAMs, the environment will become increasingly
supportive of these intense rates and short-term training, which
atop the modest FFG could result in flash flooding instances
overnight.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6imsz0UVU6e2GLkHqa_f8DPW8yE6g9adHf6pBTrrtoSASPWdTQsOThtIR5T6DEShzse3= xCmd6IW_KBPPyIq5bg-WwpY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48589836 48129668 47459642 46639687 45959777=20
45859935 46530097 47210168 47530175 47970146=20
48060133 48510027=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 280233
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-280600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0537
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1032 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...far western Virginia, southern West Virginia, far
eastern Kentucky, far northeastern Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 280232Z - 280600Z

Summary...Flash flood potential should continue for another 2-4
hours.

Discussion...Scattered convection continues to develop in earnest
across southwestern Virginia and vicinity. This area has
experienced a relative minimum in convective activity up until the
past hour, enabling persistence of surface-based instability
despite the time of day. SPC mesoanalyses indicate broad, weak
confluence within the low-level flow field across this region,
which was combining with weak terrain influences and a
moist/unstable environment (1500 J/kg MLCAPE, 1.5-1.75 inch PW
values) to promote strong updrafts. Peak rain rates are exceeding
1.5 inches/hr in a few spots beneath the most persistent
convection, which isn't surprising given the slow movement of
cells and their outflow-dominant nature. These rates are
exceeding local FFG and likely prompting localized impacts in a
few areas.

Despite the relative uptick in convective trends over the past 1-2
hours, models/obs suggest that a weakening trend will eventually
commence due to widespread convective overturning. This process
may take another 2-4 hours to weaken convection, however, with
deep convection continuing through at least 06Z or so. Isolated,
locally significant flash flooding can be expected during this
timeframe.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-OdgvMMP5GVBIXIwUtskSJjAUlYfjk2fo39oa7GUk6otzygd3tFR0kgRuHCAP_DJJ9oQ= dJpu-RVGq8sHSzb8-HnOrUQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38128208 37498071 36788066 36038304 36708397=20
37338366=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281418
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-281915-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0539
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1018 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...Northeast OK...Southwest MO...Northwest AR...
Exteme Southeast KS...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281415Z - 281915Z

SUMMARY...Small slowly decaying MCC giving way to new slow
moving/efficient thunderstorms along unstable edges.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um IR and regional RADAR mosaic depict a
smaller than average MCC with well defined MCV crossing out of SE
KS with the outer banding feature continuing to maintain on
stronger than forecast southwesterly warm air advection. AMV/RAP
analysis suggests a 300mb 50+kt jet speed max crossing out of
central KS northeastward, exposing favorable right entrance ascent
and favorable outflow to maintain and due to internal convection,
slightly enhance the MCV. This has also aided a solid south to
southwest 30kt inflow which has been orthogonal to the trailing
banding feature resulting in continued development. Initial
clusters near Tulsa have kicked some outflow southwestward and
visible imagery shows bubbling Tcu along the upwind instability
axis where MUCAPE values remain about 1500-2000 J/kg but are only
uncapped in the vicinity of the isentropic ascent.

Downstream, weak low level stratus appears to be burning off and
increased insolation is helping to bolster surface to boundary
layer heating across the high low level moisture environment
between the small MCC and the thunderstorm activity spurred by
downstream confluence in the MS/OH River Valleys. CIRA LPW layers
show area of concern remains the core of nearly all layers of
moisture with overall totals exceeding 2" and with deep layer warm
cloud processes (13-14Kft), will support efficient rainfall
production (especially where WAA/isentropic ascent is greatest)
with 2-2.5"/hr possible.

Slow deep layer flow given the MCC ciruclation is slowly to the
east and crossing into recently saturated (higher relative soil
moisture ratios into the mid to upper 60%) across the Ozark
Plateau. Combined with naturally lower FFG values due to the
complex terrain and low water crossings, the potential for
exceedance of FFG is higher and with spots of 3-4" totals suggest
it possible for scattered incidents of flash flooding to occur.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6J2WxJ8tt-cY86Q1CuBywA1vklAnm8Bl-a7WMpf3MpQmPJfGs17VgI0e6BqVyOJs4ZLl= jEQqojbos3MiLepxMIWg_EA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37999355 37789289 37439209 36719204 35639212=20
35109266 35119365 35299443 35429552 35789639=20
36679662 37109592 37329565 37529532 37759484=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281317
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-281900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0538
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
917 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...Southeast MO...Northeast AR...Western
TN...Western KY...Southern IL...Southern IND...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281315Z - 281900Z

SUMMARY...Highly efficient pulse convection with sub-hourly 2"
totals and eventual broader downdrafts/cell mergers that pose an
isolated total to 3" and localized possible flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and GOES-E conventional imagery loops
depict developing convective clusters across the central MS Valley
into the Lower Ohio River Valley. WV loop and RAP analysis shows
sharp upper-level ridge and rapid directional/divergent flow aloft
to support weak but multi-directional outflow to support stronger ascent/updraft strength. At the lower levels, solid 15-20kt
solidly confluent 850mb flow through the Lower Ohio Valley
supports convergence of very deep moisture/narrow skinny profiles
with modest but sufficient instability (1000 J/kg of CAPE). Total
PWats over 2" and vertical flux convergence will allow for highly
efficient warm cloud processes (12-13Kft depth); but with weak
shearing/tilting of updrafts, downdrafts should collapse downward
likely resulting in focused totals up to 2" in less than 30-60
minutes. Further rounds of thunderstorms will be generated along
outflow boundaries; so with each cycle the potential for broader
updrafts increases with some potential for mergers or expansion
over areas that were hit with prior rounds suggesting an isolated
spot of 3" is possible.=20

Hydrologically, the area has been above normal in rainfall and
soil saturation in most locations in the MPD area. FFG values of
2"/hr seem reasonable and may be exceeded, suggesting widely
scattered incidents of localized flash flooding is possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6NP_yTzkQFRP7SOxPoEtN7yngkvuoAOMDAq4NXda1spifKU3-YLlBIYrabPyHH0bBPle= MlIfhUM9j24z_BPC5CpRBuc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39358687 39208590 38388561 37658621 36748804=20
35128929 35289193 37299188 38048995 38768825=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281741
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-282300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0540
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
141 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...Northern & Central Kentucky...Middle Tennessee...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281745Z - 282300Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, highly efficient thunderstorms capable of
quick sub-hourly totals up to 2". Given recent rainfall,
saturated soils and urban locales; wide scattered localized
incidents of flash flooding are possible this afternoon.=20

DISCUSSION...Initial rounds of thunderstorms over the Middle MS
and lower OH/TN valleys have started to generate solid outflow
boundaries that are generally shifting eastward into central KY to
NW Middle TN. Nearly full insolation is supporting temperatures
into the upper 80s nearing 90, while deep layer moisture remains
well above normal (mid 70s Tds) and total PWats in the 1.75 to
1.9" range. As outflow boundary convergence is expected, this
should result in broader, perhaps slab ascent updrafts. Deep warm
cloud (12-14Kft) and vertical moisture flux convergence will
support wet microbursts capable of 2" totals in 30 to 60 minutes
with reinforcement of outflow boundaries to seek out remaining
instability pockets through the evening and afternoon. Cells may
have some increased duration of updraft given modest divergence
aloft in the entrance region of the north to south jet streak on
the northwest edge of the larger TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric
Trough) centered near Upstate SC/Western NC.

Recent heavy rainfall/above average rain totals have resulted in
well above average soil saturation ratios of 60 to near 70% across
most of the area of concern. Generally 1hr FFG values of
1.5-2.25" across the area are possible to be exceeded but in a
very widely scattered 'buck-shot' pattern and result in possible
localized flash flooding, with highest probability if cells align
with impermeable urban ground conditions with very high runoff
quickly.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8haWmxboKtfK-f7nRpP70KZ14xT7lVxnZ8HtE50TFRCmkG0nSSGXVCUfPc3n30lKpVG0= V4JYbgLB2eOUOuIneku9sKM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38918487 38558400 37638396 36248520 35528645=20
35168717 35228811 35848853 36838801 37698681=20
38238606=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281821
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-290030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0541
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
220 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281830Z - 290030Z

Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms will rapidly
increase in coverage across the Central Appalachians this
afternoon. Rainfall rates of 1-3"/hr are likely within this
convection, leading to pockets of 2-3" of rain with isolated
higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The GOES-E visible imagery this afternoon shows rapid
growth of TCu from northern GA through central VA, primarily along
the higher terrain of the Appalachians. These storms are pulsing
up in an extremely favorable thermodynamic environment reflected
by SPC RAP analyzed SBCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg overlapping PWs above
1.7 inches. Morning forecast soundings across the area indicate
long-skinny CAPE profiles and generally moist-adiabatic lapse
rates through much of the column, which when combined with warm
cloud depths approaching 13,000 feet suggests the environment will
support efficient warm-rain processes. Although synoptic ascent is
weak outside of modest upslope flow, which is reflected by weak
winds from the sfc through 300mb, there will likely be scattered
to numerous thunderstorms which form across the area through this
evening.

Convection will generally form along terrain features today. As
these storms pulse and decay, remnant outflow boundaries will
serve as additional foci for updrafts, leading to more numerous
cells later this aftn/eve. Storm motions will be quite weak and
chaotic as reflected by 0-6km mean winds of just 5 kts and
variable but weak Corfidi vectors, suggesting cells will move
little during their lifespan, and may at time stall when they
become terrain-tied. With rain rates progged by the HREF to have a
20-25% chance of exceeding 2"/hr, and HRRR 15-min rainfall
forecast to be as much as 1" (brief 4"/hr rates - supported by the
efficient warm rain processes), these slow storms, especially
during collisions/mergers or when storms become terrain tied,
could lead to pockets of 2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts.

The Central Appalachians have generally been dry the past 7-10
days as noted in the AHPS rainfall departures, but scattered
storms in the past week have created some pockets of more than
200% of normal rainfall. This has led to areas of 3-hr FFG that is
as low as 1-1.5"/3hrs, although FFG across much of the region is
modest due to the general vulnerability of this terrain. The HREF
3-hr exceedance probabilities are very scattered and peak at just
10-20%, but the slow movement of these efficient rain rates atop
generally sensitive terrain could result in at least isolated
instances of flash flooding today.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_5I1_Zdh-v0uJ9uoyAiR1D_tmHe7sg0TUtvuLAMqBBnuTixMBo9ppn3IBlX0VD9trs3g= sRA8u4fsye79COmzrpKLfIM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...FFC...GSP...JKL...LWX...MRX...RAH...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38707847 38457811 37717845 36927961 36168046=20
36138055 35468118 35028165 34608230 34558401=20
35018444 35808384 36858294 37748159 38368034=20
38677927=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281900
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-282300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0542
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...Ozarks

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281859Z - 282300Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand in
coverage and move slowly eastward across the Ozarks and into the
Tennessee Valley. This convection will contain rain rates that at
times may reach 3"/hr, leading to 2-3" of rain with locally higher
amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...An area of showers and thunderstorms noted on the
regional radar mosaic across MO/AR this afternoon is drifting
slowly eastward while expanding. Rainfall rates within this
convection has been estimated via local radars to be as much as
2.5"/hr (from KSGF), leading to mesonet observed rainfall of 1-2+"
so far today. This area of convection is expanding in response to
a modest 850mb LLJ of 15-20 kts which is efficiently transporting
PWs above 2 inches and MLCAPE as high as 3000 J/kg northward into
the region. Additionally, despite modest synoptic lift due to weak
flow around a ridge to the south, a weak shortwave approaching
from the Central Plains and the convergence of this weak LLJ along
its nose are helping to provide just enough ascent in the robust
thermodynamics to fuel the widespread activity this aftn.

The high-res CAMs are generally under-forecasting the current
activity, although the 12Z NAMnest and ARWs appear to have the
best handle on the breadth of the current activity. Despite that,
the CAMs are likely eroding activity too quickly during the next
few hours as the forcing/thermodynamics overlap will support a
continuation of this activity well into the Tennessee Valley by
this evening. As the favorable PWs and CAPE are continually drawn northeastward, this will support rainfall rates which have a high
chance (>70%) of exceeding 1"/hr (from the HREF) with storms
slowly moving eastward on 0-6km mean winds of just 5-10 kts.
Additionally, weak bulk shear will result in storms manifesting
primarily as pulse type, but some weak organization is possible
along outflows or in the vicinity of the LLJ nose, leading to some
short-term training or backbuilding to prolong these rain rates.
Where this occurs, rainfall could be 2-3" or locally higher.

FFG across the area is generally 2-3"/3hrs, for which the HREF
indicates has a 20-30% chance of being exceeded. However, with the
poor overall initiation of the HREF CAMs suite, the true
probability is likely higher than this. Additionally, MRMS 24-hr
rainfall has been 1 to as much as 3 inches, leading to pockets of
fully saturated top-soils which will be more susceptible to
runoff. While flash flooding is possible anywhere across the area
this aftn, it will be most likely where any short term training
can move across the more primed soils.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5SyBqEJ3mJ1qmMc5Eh7iEd-U0tFzehTvflgh6ZNNMxQbrvkAStGRN4H4YzKvJOipnNnR= Hq9HQjjzTG1qd1YOGblB2OY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38629272 38369174 37999067 37688938 37438845=20
37068793 36248825 35628906 35108969 34819096=20
35079227 35519309 36269353 36759361 37749371=20
38509336=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281941
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-290130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0543
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281940Z - 290130Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms blossoming ahead of a cold
front will expand and train through the afternoon and into the
evening. Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr are expected, which through
training could produce 2-3" of rain. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows a
rapid uptick of convective coverage aligned SW to NE from eastern
Indiana through southwest Pennsylvania. These storms are
continuing to expand and intensify as reflected by the GOES-E
day-cloud phase RGB, suggesting more numerous storms will develop
during the next few hours. This convection is blossoming in
response to convergence along an approaching cold front, which is
impinging into robust thermodynamics characterized by PWs around
1.7 inches (above the 90th percentile at KILN according to the SPC
sounding climatology) and SBCAPE over 3000 J/kg.

Through the afternoon and into this evening, the cold front is
likely to sag slowly south and east as modest 500mb height falls
occur downstream of a shortwave moving into the Upper Midwest.
This evolution combined with modest upper diffluence will help
drive synoptic ascent atop the pronounced low-level convergence
ahead of the front. This lift will move into an increasingly
favorable environment as the 850mb inflow, while modest in speed
(10-15 kts and veering) maintains a resupply of favorable
thermodynamics as it originates from a pool of high PWs over 2
inches. The HRRR is under-forecasting the current activity, but
the ARWs, NAMnest, and even the RRFS have a better handle on the
ongoing coverage and are favored through the evening. This
suggests that storms will continue to expand and build into the
greater instability to the SW, and then train steadily to the east
as weak Corfidi vectors and 0-6km mean winds become aligned to
each other and the sagging front.

Rain rates will likely reach 1-2"/hr (50-60% chance from the REFS)
leading to short duration rainfall as much as 0.5-1.5 inches in 30
minutes, and this could quickly overwhelm soils leading to runoff.
However, the greater concern is where training occurs, which
should be prevalent along the front, as this could produce 2-3" of
rain in some areas over a short period of time. If this training
falls atop any urban areas, or across more sensitive soils due to
terrain or FFG that is as low as 1.5"/3hrs from recent rainfall,
instances of flash flooding would become more likely.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8nAQkQBFEPmn75sWybBmmLW7t2Es7pTBJnbpEXcrKt-EyjQ0gMBJVGVcKf4Cat3xwhEw= SClogB_jvOC_B__pauC6O_4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...LWX...PBZ...
RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41017956 40737902 40127875 39187921 38577999=20
38298060 38228211 38548386 38868527 39188601=20
39458625 39778621 40138576 40198405 40418201=20
40738094 40918023=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 282200
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-290300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0544
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
600 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...Southern New Mexico and West Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 282159Z - 290300Z

Summary...Slow moving thunderstorms with 0.5"/hr rates or locally
greater will continue across New Mexico and West Texas. This could
produce as much as 0.75-1.25 inches of rain, leading to instances
of flash flooding, especially across burn scars.

Discussion...Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed
across southern New Mexico and West Texas this afternoon. This
convection is expanding in response to favorable thermodynamics
characterized by PWs of 1-1.4 inches, highest in West Texas,
collocated with SBCAPE rising to 1000-2500 J/kg, highest in the
High Plains of NM. In this environment, forcing is modest, but a
shortwave is helping to enhance ascent that is otherwise primarily
driven by upslope into terrain features and subsequent outflow
boundaries in the pulse-convection environment. With PWs around
the 90th percentile for the date, rainfall rates have been
estimated via the local radars of around 0.5"/hr, and where these
have occurred across recent burn scars, flash flood warnings are
in effect.

With a sharp gradient in moisture and instability in place across
the area, convective coverage should remain generally isolated to
scattered as reflected by available CAM simulated reflectivity.
However, the presence of the shortwave could enhance ascent enough
that storms become a bit more widespread than yesterday. In the
pulse environment, this will result in outflows and storm mergers
leading to additional development, with storm motions likely
remaining chaotic and less than 10 kts using the Corfidi vectors
as proxy. This will allow for heavy rain rates, which should
exceed 0.5"/hr (>70% chance from the HREF) and may reach 1"/hr (UA
WRF), especially during any mergers/collisions, to drift across
the area through the aftn. Although general lifespans of these
cells will be short, except during mergers, total rainfall could
reach 1" or more in a few locations.

This area is generally vulnerable to flash flooding. 1-hr FFG is
only around 1", with even lower amounts likely needed to cause
rapid runoff across sensitive terrain features and burn scars.
Additionally, 7-day rainfall has been excessive at more than 600%
of normal, further enhancing the vulnerability of the region as
0-40cm soils are saturated above the 98th percentile in many
areas. While the burn scars will have the most sensitivity and
potential for flash flooding, any slow moving cell with the most
intense rates could result in impacts through this evening.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4bkkhuMrVC7ZQQxNkLrq549efb7TuG7hfd8HwO28fsv4CmLpP8raU6A7bSZFpHzRgDZ-= HznrOl1N2OpS6Tex4-dSaqY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34730550 34690480 34370380 33280316 31870309=20
30970314 30880322 30350336 30270388 30470469=20
31030547 31720612 32010718 32150819 32380867=20
32740875 33110875 33400893 33630876 33630827=20
33850784 34060772 34390705 34610624=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 290033
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-290600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0545
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
832 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...Southeast North Dakota, Northeast South Dakota,
Central Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290031Z - 290600Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will grow rapidly this evening
and may congeal into an MCS during the next few hours. Rainfall
rates of 2+"/hr are likely, which could produce 2-4" of rain with
locally higher amounts through training. Flash flooding is
possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening shows two
distinct areas of convection rapidly growing across the Dakotas.
These storms are intensifying in response to an approaching cold
front from the west, which is being pushed eastward by an
accompanying shortwave embedded within weak troughing of otherwise
zonal flow. Forcing for ascent is beginning to intensify
downstream of this shortwave/front, aided by both the LFQ of a
modest jet streak pivoting into SD, and through low-level
convergence along the nose of an amplifying 850mb LLJ which has
been measured recently at KFSD VWP at 30 kts. This LLJ is
additionally transporting robust thermodynamics northward as
reflected by the SPC RAP analysis, which suggests that MUCAPE has
climbed above 4000 J/kg coincident with PWs of over 1.5 inches.
Together, this lift and favorable environment will combine to
cause an increase in convection through the evening.

There remains considerable spread in the CAMs for the evolution
this evening, causing somewhat lower than typical confidence in
the flash flood potential. However, as the LLJ ramps up towards 40
kts it will further replenish thermodynamics northward, while also
enhancing ascent as it increases above the mean flow causing
additional convergence into the warm sector ahead of the cold
front. This combined with the cold front moving steadily eastward,
and bulk shear rising to 30-35 kts, suggests hedging towards the
CAMs with the most widespread and aggressive simulated
reflectivity during the next few hours. This will support rainfall
rates of 2+"/hr that are suggested by 20-25% probabilities from
the HREF (which are likely too low due to model performance this
evening), with brief rainfall rates of 3-4"/hr likely as shown by
15-min HRRR rainfall of 0.75" to 1". Although individual cells,
and the potential MCS produced via upscale growth, should be
progressive, training will become increasingly likely as the MCS
trails an outflow boundary to its south upon which additional
storms will develop and then move east which is supported by
veering Corfidi vectors. Where this training occurs, rainfall
could be 2-4" with locally higher amounts.

These intense rain rates will be sufficient to produce rapid
runoff and isolated flash flooding. However, the antecedent
conditions are also supportive due to 10-day rainfall that is more
than 300% of normal causing 0-40cm soil moisture above the 98th
percentile. This suggests minimal infiltration capacity of the
soils, so that while the greatest risk for flash flooding will be
through training, any of these intense rain rates, even if
progressive, could quickly overwhelm the soils to produce impacts
tonight.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!77aROJtk4PMF-eJ1Qsn6pNw9HR4KhZTmS0T7D6fVxaS7SxTPyVx2kz7rPGoVsGNQOb5n= 2mud6qjw8F3xhblxZWkA7H0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...DLH...FGF...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 47379700 46979527 46629391 46259265 45879232=20
45359251 44839287 44609354 44529363 44479505=20
44709658 45299754 46059837 46499849 46999806=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 290340
FFGMPD
MNZ000-SDZ000-290800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0546
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1139 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...eastern South Dakota, southern/central Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 290339Z - 290800Z

Summary...Intense thunderstorms have taken on a favorable
orientation for training, with spots of 2-3 inch/hr rates
persisting for a couple hours just southeast of Watertown, SD.=20
Heavy to extreme rain rates could pose locally significant flash
flood potential through at least 07Z.

Discussion...Recent mesoscale trends indicate a linear MCS
extending from just southwest of Watertown, SD to near Willmar,
MN. The linear MCS was backbuilding along the northern extent of
a 25-30 kt southwesterly 850mb jet centered near Sioux Falls, SD.=20 Substantial backbuilding and training was occurring with this
activity, and MRMS estimates of 5-7 inches of rainfall exist just
southeast of Watertown with this activity. Steep lapse rates and
abundant moisture will continue to fuel backbuilding activity in
the short term, and heavy to extreme rain rates will likely
accompany this activity.

While the evolution of this band through the night is a bit
uncertain, observations suggest that training convection will
continue for at least the next 3-4 hours at least with
synoptic-scale atmospheric features not expected to evolve much in
that timeframe. The ongoing band will likely continue to
backbuild while either remaining stationary or moving slowly
southeastward in response to local cold pool development and other
mesoscale processes. The band may also build eastward in to more
of southern Minnesota. The degree of training in any one spot
will be a primary factor modulating rainfall totals through 07Z.=20
Additional 3-7 inch rainfall totals cannot be ruled out. Locally
significant flash flooding may occur with this activity.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6grJJVDF1DuzAFEm1feLPyY8scMlD8SFbN4V5WFkQPCpdf-UKEXQNCH7uZ7cQBsIhEZG= RS1jbxJFfx4k3HhmVziLCS8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...ARX...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45269446 45109341 44569281 43969300 43639568=20
43859793 44659807 45099677=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 290402
FFGMPD
MNZ000-SDZ000-290800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0546
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1202 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...eastern South Dakota, southern/central Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 290339Z - 290800Z

Summary...Intense thunderstorms have taken on a favorable
orientation for training, with spots of 2-3 inch/hr rates
persisting for a couple hours just southeast of Watertown, SD.=20
Heavy to extreme rain rates could pose locally significant flash
flood potential through at least 07Z.

Discussion...Recent mesoscale trends indicate a linear MCS
extending from just southwest of Watertown, SD to near Willmar,
MN. The linear MCS was backbuilding along the northern extent of
a 25-30 kt southwesterly 850mb jet centered near Sioux Falls, SD.=20 Substantial training was also occurring with this activity, and
MRMS estimates of 5-7 inches of rainfall exist just southeast of
Watertown recently. Steep lapse rates and abundant moisture will
continue to fuel backbuilding in the short term, and heavy to
extreme rain rates will likely accompany the storms.

While the evolution of this band through the night is a bit
uncertain, observations suggest that training convection will
continue for at least the next 3-4 hours at least with
synoptic-scale atmospheric features not expected to evolve much in
that timeframe. The ongoing band will likely continue to
backbuild while either remaining stationary or moving slowly
southeastward in response to local cold pool development and other
mesoscale processes. The band may also build eastward in to more
of southern Minnesota. The degree of training in any one spot
will be a primary factor modulating rainfall totals through 07Z.=20
Additional 3-7 inch rainfall totals cannot be ruled out. Locally
significant flash flooding may occur with this activity.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4F2xc3ZVn4vMqrnT-GIo-xijucQyyMY8mnZYa4f2HAi98pKDVELsikniesse_DIUjHrv= DCZ0xIbT1icLe3NJJRU0Vko$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...ARX...FSD...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45269446 45109341 44569281 43969300 43639568=20
43859793 44659807 45099677=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 290802
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-KSZ000-291400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0547
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...eastern Kansas into central and south-central
Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290800Z - 291400Z

Summary...A few areas of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms are
expected to expand in coverage across the discussion area. Areas
of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates are expected through at least 14Z/9a CDT
this morning, which could prompt flash flooding.

Discussion...Scattered convection was developing along an axis
from east-central Kansas (near Emporia eastward to near Sedalia
and southeastward to the MO/AR border near Cherokee Village. The
storms were being forced by ascent on the nose of stronger 850mb
flow located across Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks, with speed
convergence providing lift amid a marginally unstable (1000 J/kg
MUCAPE) but plenty moist (1.5+ inch PW) environment. The storms
are developing amid weak steering flow aloft, resulting in slow
movement and redevelopment within the axis of best low-level
convergence. The slow movement was already enabling spots of 1
inch/hr rain rates to materialize in central Missouri, which may
result in isolated excessive runoff in the near term despite
values falling short of hourly FFG.

Models/observations suggest that persistent low-level convergence
across the discussion area will continue to promote redevelopment
and expansion of convection through the early morning hours. An
attendant increase in rainfall rates (into the 1.5 inch/hr range
in spots) is also expected. These rain rates will threaten FFG
thresholds and promote a risk of flash flooding especially in
urban and sensitive locales through 14Z/9a CDT this morning.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6mFz9p25grdnoArPkxPNBzHQp-EV60no98FhHspYNDqAYVbYu_UAHSSz-_AMH6C0HRcC= lQupv2YJzShWD6xnupRlIH0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...LZK...PAH...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 39749527 39699367 38599109 37209056 36509081=20
36309167 36869256 38309426 38429556 39089600=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 290943
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-291400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0548
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
542 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...western Iowa, eastern Nebraska, far northwestern
Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290941Z - 291400Z

Summary...A convective complex across northeastern
Nebraska/northwestern Iowa will foster isolated flash flood
potential as it migrates southeastward across the discussion area
through 14Z/9a CDT.

Discussion...Latest radar mosaic imagery indicates a mature
convective complex extending from near Sheldon, IA southwestward
to near Norfolk, NE this morning. Additional, isolated convection
was beginning to develop across southeastern Nebraska. The storms
are being supported by strong mid-level lapse rates (~8C/km) and a
moist axis (1.4+ inch PW values) extending from northeastern
Nebraska south-southeastward toward Kansas City Metro. Additional
storms across far southeastern Nebraska were being supported by
strong low-level convergence on the nose of 40-kt low-level flow
focused over central Kansas. Most areas within this complex were
experiencing modest rain rates except for far northwestern Iowa,
where the orientation of cells were promoting 1.5 inch/hr rain
rates that were approaching FFG thresholds.

While the ongoing flash flood threat should remain fairly isolated
in the short term, some concern exists that this potential could
increase through 14Z/9a this morning. The ongoing, mature MCS
should continue to migrate south-southeastward through abundant
mid-level instability, resulting in continued potential for 1-1.5
inch/hr rates at times. Additionally, low-level convergence (and
resultant development) across southeastern Nebraska suggest that
the mature convective complex will eventually begin to foster
cellular mergers that locally prolong rain rates and boost
rainfall totals in a few locales. FFG thresholds are in the 1.5-2
inch/hr range areawide, and as mergers become more common, these
thresholds should be breached on occasion.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6LylPw7-B2Mx1MTr6R90gwy5QWMUdHWA1F7Hq4ZsoJaZ44BVH-euHsQ7KTlgpjN4vmIX= 1Tk-Y63H2FWs8CUdCSZr3hU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43219519 42799437 41679387 40549364 39909428=20
40129604 40529694 42199718 43089634=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 291343
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-291930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0549
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
942 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Missouri...Far Southeast
Nebraska...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291345Z - 291930Z

SUMMARY...Weakening convective complexes still have potential for
additional 1-3" locally crossing areas already flooded this
morning. Localized flash flooding still remains possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um loop shows scattered re-activation of
scattered thunderstorms/cooling tops extending from dying
MCS/Squall line across SE NEB/IA moving into NE KS/NW MO all the
way south across central MO to southeast MO where remaining
isentropic ascent continues with scattered clusters. Upwind
areas across E KS and SW MO remain conditionally unstable with
ample deep layer moisture up to 1.75-2" of total PWats and capped
CAPEs up to 2500 J/kg which will further increase with clearing
skies. The old MCV with the leading convective complex/WAA
regime continues to decouple and slide eastward through the deep
layer flow across E MO, but the resulting LLJ still is fairly
strong for the diurnal minimum with TWX/EAX/SGF VWP suite
continuing to show solid 30-40kt decelerating confluent flow
toward the old outflow/isentropic gradient across west-central to
southeast MO still able to overcome the weaker capping to support
the remaining convective clusters particularly on the confluent
upwind edge from Bates to Miller county. Given the moisture flux
and buoyancy, scattered cells/clusters will move with favorable
orientation for short-term training as well as intersecting areas
affected last night/this morning across south-central MO; given
broad scattered Tcu across the Ozark Plateau, additional
development may occur hear as well, expanding the risk for flash
flooding rainfall totals (1-3") south and west of the already
flooded areas in SE MO.

Upstream, the strong outflow/squall line is intersecting the
northern apex of the instability axis across NE KS and strong
convergence along the leading edge is sprouting stronger/broader
updrafts with cores that are back-shearing over the colder
under-cutting air, suggesting increased overall duration of
intense rainfall can be expected over the next hour or so. In
addition, the squall line is merging with older more scattered WAA
cells lingering from the prior wave in combination over the Kansas
City Metro area. Propagation will be more due south than
southeast given the available instability westward to the old
track of rain; but a balance may be stuck for intersection of this
newer 1.5-3" totals over areas having 1-3" this morning.=20

While overall coverage is likely to be more scattered in nature,
the combination of rates over recently saturated grounds will
continue the risk for a few more incidents of flash flooding
through the next 3-5 hours as the LLJ further diminishes and
capping further increases.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-mSwJJvnCo4nwUUGWVBMW7wbvzJSSu3EPvKTUpucSnhuvd1yVMTBIeM1Cz2iLFJIQTMa= vx2RZTzYXgucbjGzqeU5gmc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...OAX...PAH...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 40559416 40209305 39449183 38279032 37498949=20
36958946 36739007 36799152 37249318 38109480=20
39259652 40109708 40509556=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 291702
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-292200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0550
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
102 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...Middle TN...Northern AL...Northwest
GA...West-central MS...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291700Z - 292200Z

SUMMARY...Stronger than normal pulse thunderstorms within deep
moisture, slow flow environment may support scattered to numerous
cells with capability of 2" totals in 30-60 minutes. Incidents of
localized flash flooding is considered possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite once again shows closed TUTT cell
over E GA just west of Augusta with northwest quadrant of enhanced
moisture within/along NNE to SSW jet streak across Middle TN
becoming more diffluent along and south of the TN River Valley.=20
Clear skies and stagnant humid low level moisture have supported
rapid increase in broad area of 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE across
much of northern and central AL, with extensions into west-central
MS and western GA. Deep layer moisture is over 2". Differential
heating along old cirrus canopy from the western portion of Middle
TN into central MS has result in weak thermal circulation to
support weak, yet sufficient convergence in this highly unstable
environment for broader ascent with scattered to numerous coverage
noted.=20

Deep layer steering is very weak at 5-10kts and also a tad
diffluent toward the south and southeast. So with stronger
vertical moisture flux/loading to the updrafts, warm cloud depths
over 13-14Kft will support up to 2" totals within 30-60 minutes.=20
Limited dry air aloft will support moist outflow boundaries and
convergence will support newer activity with each cycle
potentially increasing the areal expanse of the updrafts resulting
in a broader area of intense rainfall. Given the shear
rate/magnitude...rapid inundation and runoff would be normally
expected but lower FFG due to an above normal season may further
limit infiltration and increase runoff. As such, highly
focused/localized flash flooding may be possible in/near the cores
and around urban centers such as Huntsville, Birmingham, Nashville
or Atlanta.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4RwHvCg7IKrQNJWMGYkNGF_VkCOkgqv2zSamNuAnzjGYVnmFAicdWwsX1Q9MtKmeIzOY= OXPwMYbcIcylMjd7CzHKWYQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36428678 36388549 35468504 34298461 33608397=20
32808432 32558518 32618608 32498743 32398887=20
33248920 33708820 34948777 35848747=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 291847
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-300030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0551
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
247 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...central Iowa through northeast Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291846Z - 300030Z

Summary...Storms developing ahead of a cold front will train
through the afternoon. As rain rates intensify to 1-2"/hr, this
training could result in axes of more than 3 inches of rain,
potentially leading to flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows
showers and thunderstorms expanding rapidly ahead of an
approaching cold front. Although the front is still positioned
well west of the axis of convection, storms are aligning SW to NE
along the convergent nose of a modest LLJ and downstream of an MCV
noted in the GOES-E visible satellite imagery to enhance ascent.
This LLJ, while veering with latitudinal gain, is transporting
robust thermodynamics northward as a ribbon of PWs above 1.5
inches stretches northward into Wisconsin immediately downstream
of the developing convection, collocated with a plume of SBCAPE
above 4000 J/kg. Although ascent is generally modest, this lift
acting into these favorable thermodynamics will continue to
support intensifying cores, with an expansion of coverage also
likely during the next few hours.

Rainfall rates have been estimated above 1.5"/hr via KARX WSR-88D
already this afternoon. These rates will likely continue to
intensify, and both the HREF and REFS indicate a 10-20% chance of
2"/hr rain rates during the next few hours. Short duration
rainfall may be even more impressive as the 15-min HRRR indicates
brief 3-4"/hr rates (0.75 to 1.0 inches in 15 minutes). As the MCV
pushes northeast and the front approaches, shear may gradually
increase to 20-25 kts, suggesting at least modest organization
into multicell clusters is possible, with the CAMs identifying
southern WI as the most likely location for this evolution.
Regardless of any organization, training/repeating cells appear
likely as Corfidi vectors collapse to around 5 kts and align to
the mean wind, indicating that cells will continue to regenerate
within the greater thermodynamics to the S/SW and then track
northeast, impacting the same areas multiple times. With rain
rates of 1-2"/hr or more expected, this could result in 1-3" of
rain with locally higher amounts as forecast by HREF 6-hr rain
probabilities.

Soils across the area, especially in WI and southeast MN, are
saturated above the 95th percentile within the 0-40cm layer
according to NASA SPoRT due to recent heavy rain. This has lowered
FFG to just 1.5-2"/3hrs which has a 20-30% chance of being
exceeded according to the HREF. This further indicates the
potential for these heavy rain rates to result in instances of
flash flooding through the evening, especially during the most
impressive training.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!92xgdl_3B6lBde2mbol7OGdC2T_JFEEcGUQlYpG2rasODkSnVgi6wIfZ7iLaRDTXCJ_9= syIf7qySfNrNN4vrOUyCYUk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...GRB...MKX...MPX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45598869 45488782 44948768 44138806 43268913=20
42669017 41979238 42549299 43369292 43969231=20
44639129 45308957 45378935=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 291949
FFGMPD
KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-300100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0552
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...southeast Kansas through the Ozarks

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291947Z - 300100Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms developing along a surface
trough and an accompanying outflow boundary will translate
southeast through the afternoon. Rainfall rates in excess of 2"/hr
are expected within this convection, leading to 2-3" of rain with
locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The GOES-E day-cloud phase RGB this afternoon
indicates a rapid expansion of strengthening updrafts across much
of southern Missouri. These updrafts are manifesting as
strengthening thunderstorms, with two clusters noted via the
regional radar mosaic. One of these is dropping out of southeast
Kansas along an outflow boundary, while a second area is expanding
across a surface trough in southeast Missouri. The low-level
convergence driving this convection is moving into robust
thermodynamics characterized by PWs nearing 2 inches overlapping
MLCAPE of 3000 J/kg, leading to intense rain rates estimated via
radar to be 2.5"/hr in some areas.

Over the next few hours coverage should continue to expand across
the area and track slowly to the southeast, although some more
impressive organization through bulk shear of 20-30 kts may
eventually result in a more progressive MCS as shown by the ARWs.
Until then, the slow movement of cells combined with these intense
rain rates may result in stripes of 2-3" of rain with locally
higher amounts.

The CAMs differ considerably in the evolution the next few hours,
so confidence is reduced as to where the greatest potential for
the heaviest rainfall will be. However, the slow southward advance
of the strong CAPE gradient combined with the slow westward build
of convection along the surface trough suggests south-central
Missouri will become the focus of the heaviest and most prolonged
rainfall this afternoon. This is potentially problematic as FFG in
this area is most compromised to as low as 0.75-1.5"/3hrs, for
which the HREF indicates has a 30-40% chance of exceedance. While
the intense rain rates moving across any urban or more sensitive
soils could cause flash flooding, the greatest risk will be across south-central Missouri where the the overlap of low FFG and
highest rainfall may occur.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-sN7tAT_2ieEFTVd5YlPunizHwD1klzmMswP6gIQkPTna1iNCPlQcyUHq_sHx9MoaqWw= Dt6GuT-D4jov0wUyjiHzrSY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TOP...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38749475 38709411 38419304 38119227 37699172=20
37349091 37058988 36708936 36298969 36039087=20
36089305 36499483 36829558 37179640 37429720=20
38139668=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 291957
FFGMPD
KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-300100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0552
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...southeast Kansas through the Ozarks

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291947Z - 300100Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms developing along a surface
trough and an accompanying outflow boundary will translate
southeast through the afternoon. Rainfall rates in excess of 2"/hr
are expected within this convection, leading to 2-3" of rain with
locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The GOES-E day-cloud phase RGB this afternoon
indicates a rapid expansion of strengthening updrafts across much
of southern Missouri. These updrafts are manifesting as
strengthening thunderstorms, with two clusters noted via the
regional radar mosaic. One of these is dropping out of southeast
Kansas along an outflow boundary, while a second area is expanding
across a surface trough in southeast Missouri. The low-level
convergence driving this convection is moving into robust
thermodynamics characterized by PWs nearing 2 inches overlapping
MLCAPE of 3000 J/kg, leading to intense rain rates estimated via
radar to be 2.5"/hr in some areas.

Over the next few hours coverage should continue to expand across
the area and track slowly to the southeast, although some more
impressive organization through bulk shear of 20-30 kts may
eventually result in a more progressive MCS as shown by the ARWs.
Until then, the slow movement of cells combined with these intense
rain rates may result in stripes of 2-3" of rain with locally
higher amounts.

The CAMs differ considerably in the evolution the next few hours,
so confidence is reduced as to where the greatest potential for
the heaviest rainfall will be. However, the slow southward advance
of the strong CAPE gradient combined with the slow westward build
of convection along the surface trough suggests south-central
Missouri will become the focus of the heaviest and most prolonged
rainfall this afternoon. This is potentially problematic as FFG in
this area is most compromised to as low as 0.75-1.5"/3hrs, for
which the HREF indicates has a 30-40% chance of exceedance. While
the intense rain rates moving across any urban or more sensitive
soils could cause flash flooding, the greatest risk will be across south-central Missouri where the the overlap of low FFG and
highest rainfall may occur.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_2Sp5JUSjnAydKLCKsLwn6k8OmzbH1bnn4PT0tgcT0-lJOtnEPj2crL2pKWPDGZJKZlq= Ttd_14q3GlAmNjZLNgPcVcI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TOP...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38749475 38709411 38419304 38119227 37699172=20
37349091 37058988 36708936 36298969 36039087=20
36089305 36499483 36829558 37179640 37429720=20
38139668=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 300142
FFGMPD
ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-300700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0553
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
942 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...southeast Kansas, northeast Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300141Z - 300700Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand along several
outflow boundaries tonight. Rainfall rates in new convection may
briefly pulse up above 3"/hr, leading to 1-2" of rain in less than
1 hour. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening shows clusters
of thunderstorms dropping southward across parts of AR, OK, and KS
along residual outflow boundaries from earlier convection. Radar
estimated rainfall rates within the most intense cores have been
above 2"/hr according to KVNX, which has resulted in MRMS measured
rainfall of more than 3 inches in the past 6-hrs in a few
locations, including a reported 3.9 inches near Piedmont, KS.

These outflows will continue to drop steadily southward through
the next several hours, serving as a focus for additional
convective development. As the boundaries drop south, they will
encounter more favorable thermodynamics reflected by the SPC RAP
analysis indicating a pool of 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE aligned
with a ribbon of PWs approaching 2 inches. This will continue to
support intense rainfall rates of more than 2"/hr, and the HRRR
15-min rainfall accumulation product suggests rates will briefly
exceed 3"/hr (0.75 to 1 inch in 15 minutes). Additionally, as
these storms sag south and redevelop along the convergent outflow
boundaries, the LLJ, currently analyzed via local VWPs to be from
the SW at 20 kts, will provide additional ascent through
isentropic upglide while concurrently resupplying the impressive
thermodynamics into the clusters of storms.

While the CAMs are exceptionally different with the evolution the
next few hours, the recent HRRR appears to be catching on to the
current activity, with some support from the ARW/ARW2 as well.
Despite the lack of agreement, which is negatively impacting the
HREF exceedance probabilities, the current radar combined with the
expected continuation of the favorable thermodynamics suggests
convection will persist, and may pulse up at times through the
next few hours. Where this occurs, total rainfall could again be
1-2" in less than an hour, with local maxima above 3" possible.
This rain will occur atop soils that are saturated above the 90th
percentile according to NASA SPoRT from 7-day rainfall that has
been more than 200% of normal, highest in northeast OK. Any heavy
rain falling atop these soils, especially if any training can
occur along the boundary as it sags southward, could cause
instances of flash flooding.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5ry-0Q7fP_V0EQdGocVrPcaNGadbPKLFALlvxxBrHbcEJrFNC4VmT5qzSG1IPAFDpChz= bsV_QfYSy6YLpAjvKLx9AZk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37999698 37859578 37169522 36619478 36199445=20
35569430 35199456 35129520 35299608 35679697=20
36149750 36609785 37319784=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 300633
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-301032-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0554
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Areas affected...central/southern indiana and vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300632Z - 301032Z

Summary...A loosely organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms
were repeating over southern Indiana near Bloomington, where 1.75
inch/hr rain rates and 5-7 inch rainfall totals have been observed
since 00Z. Flash flooding is likely in this area through 10Z this
morning.

Discussion...Scattered showers and thunderstorms over southern
Indiana are embedded in broad, modest west-southwesterly flow
aloft currently. Recent radar mosaic imagery indicates that
convection has begun to take on more of a training character,
focusing on a subtle confluence axis evident at the surface and at
850mb via SPC mesoanalyses and surface obs. The convection is
embedded in 2 inch PW values and around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE.=20
Meanwhile, upstream convection has deepened across far
southeastern Illinois that should eventually repeat into areas of
southern Indiana that have already received heavy rainfall. The
current scenario suggests that additional 2-5 inch rainfall totals
area possible in some parts of the discussion area near/south of
Bloomington and vicinity.

MRMS Flash responses are in moderate levels across the area that
has received heavier rainfall over the past 3-6 hours or so.=20
Additionally, and three-hourly FFG thresholds are in the 2 inch
range and will likely be exceeded at times as convection moves
across the region. Flash flooding is likely, and depending on the
persistence of this band through/beyond 10Z, local significant
impacts are possible.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_micK7amQXEsIaodOLfMMjMd8F9MhCDDtGLA4Dg_LrI-0dg5Kh4j-D1GiI871z1zpvcQ= yoQ3IdwKWm822Uq0L9d3-1M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39898503 39348482 38778508 38378621 38048846=20
38858809 39258725=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 300701
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-301300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0555
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Areas affected...portions of central Kansas into central Nebraska

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300700Z - 301300Z

Summary...A couple of thunderstorm complexes are expected to merge
across the discussion area though 12Z this morning. Multiple cell
mergers and localized training should enable development of areas
of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates and at least isolated instances of flash
flooding.

Discussion...A complicated convective pattern is evolving across
the central Plains currently. A fairly progressive MCS is
leveraging modest steering flow aloft while forward propagating
southeastward near LXN/Lexington, NE currently. The orientation
of the convection and its speed has generally limited rain rates
to around 1 inch/hr on an isolated basis, resulting in a very
limited flash flood threat in the short term.

Farther south, a mature MCS has evolved across southern
Kansas/northern Oklahoma. This complex is leveraging both steep
lapse rates aloft (around 7.5C/km) and convergence on the nose of
a 30kt southwesterly low-level jet centered over northwestern
Oklahoma and southwestern Kansas. The storms within this complex
have substantially weaker mid/upper steering flow and are largely
elevated atop an expanding cold pool. Slow movement has enabled
several areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates to materialize, which has
fostered isolated flash flood potential especially near Wichita
where 2 inch/hr FFG thresholds were noted.

Over the next 6 hours, the meso-to-synoptic setup favors the
eventual merging of the southern Nebraska and southern Kansas MCSs
along with intermediate convective development across
western/central Kansas amid strong low-level convergence and 2500
J/kg MLCAPE. The increase in convective coverage and relatively
weak steering flow aloft suggest that areas of 1.5-2.5 inch/hr
rain rates will become more common with time. These rates will
exceed FFG thresholds at times - especially across southern NE and
northern Kansas where 1.5-2 inch/hr thresholds were prevalent.=20
FFGs are a bit higher with southern extent into Kansas,
potentially pointing to a somewhat lesser flash flood threat in
those areas.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6JQHJw6bFSfE1RGDj0ImMPJ9b_lyFd0k-sn84KNNkWdKaH90doxwtTnplhRUELr9TzOi= MJgXQ5r8roMwQjvVRbVi3lc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41619840 40389698 38819640 37949679 37499729=20
37459882 37990035 39040170 39890137 41260022=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 300716
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-301032-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0554...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Corrected for flash flooding "likely" tag

Areas affected...central/southern indiana and vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 300632Z - 301032Z

Summary...A loosely organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms
were repeating over southern Indiana near Bloomington, where 1.75
inch/hr rain rates and 5-7 inch rainfall totals have been observed
since 00Z. Flash flooding is likely in this area through 10Z this
morning.

Discussion...Scattered showers and thunderstorms over southern
Indiana are embedded in broad, modest west-southwesterly flow
aloft currently. Recent radar mosaic imagery indicates that
convection has begun to take on more of a training character,
focusing on a subtle confluence axis evident at the surface and at
850mb via SPC mesoanalyses and surface obs. The convection is
embedded in 2 inch PW values and around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE.=20
Meanwhile, upstream convection has deepened across far
southeastern Illinois that should eventually repeat into areas of
southern Indiana that have already received heavy rainfall. The
current scenario suggests that additional 2-5 inch rainfall totals
area possible in some parts of the discussion area near/south of
Bloomington and vicinity.

MRMS Flash responses are in moderate levels across the area that
has received heavier rainfall over the past 3-6 hours or so.=20
Additionally, and three-hourly FFG thresholds are in the 2 inch
range and will likely be exceeded at times as convection moves
across the region. Flash flooding is likely, and depending on the
persistence of this band through/beyond 10Z, local significant
impacts are possible.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_9rKskqQXgsdlX2UDgUjx6oUPToJiAuBtzc-eLGjGFZ7-WdhDMZL3y_4nJ63JakDmpAE= JmeRQbQJ8zEGiuz5EYfVh4E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39898503 39348482 38778508 38378621 38048846=20
38858809 39258725=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 300840
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-301100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0556
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
440 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Areas affected...far southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300839Z - 301100Z

Summary...A band of elevated convection extending from near Pratt,
KS to near Enid, OK has become nearly stationary over the past
couple hours. Rain rates exceeding 2 inches/hr have been
estimated in a few spots. These rates will pose an isolated flash
flood threat for the next 2-3 hours or so.

Discussion...A mature MCS over northern Oklahoma has experienced a
complicated evolution this morning, with most of the vigorous
convection now focused along a band from near Pratt, KS to near
Enid, OK. This portion of the MCS features mainly elevated
convection, although that convection has stalled atop expanding
outflow/cold pool now over northwestern Oklahoma. Furthermore,
25kt southwesterly 850mb flow was interacting favorably with the
cold pool to help maintain the convective band while also likely
helping to maintain elevated instability near the storms. The
result is an axis of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates that has largely
remained in a similar position over the past 3 hours, with
MRMS-estimated rainfall totals of 3-5 inches also noted in that
3-hour timeframe.

The ongoing heavy rainfall pattern should persist for another 2-3
hours or so. Later this morning, southwesterly 850mb flow should
slacken some and result in reduced convergence and influx of
instability into the convective band. This should result in
weakening of the band along with lessening of rain rates, although
specific timing on this anticipated weakening is uncertain. In
the meantime, 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates will likely continue. FFG
thresholds are a bit high in the region (2.5+ inch/hr), but the
multi-hour nature of the heavy rain threat suggests a continued
(and at least isolated) flash flood risk through 11Z or so.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!--GcLw0JHkb-BmCswWSHvBLOTyerUqbsv4J5uH4qkmmGgYmCZg5f9Vd_q_gxWK5ky4nm= 5Ymdjh_rjvlMtC393j6NKog$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37769973 37549783 36139674 35699732 35889924=20
36649969=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 301540
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-302000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0557
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1139 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Central Appalachians in PA, MD,
WV, and VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301538Z - 302000Z

Summary...Thunderstorms should develop between Noon and 2 PM EDT
in the Allegheny Mountains, Blue Ridge Mountains, southwest
Pennsylvania, and surrounding areas. The storms may initially move
slowly to the northeast, and the slow movement and heavy rain
rates, with over 1 inch of rainfall in an hour, may lead to
localized flash flooding in the early afternoon.

Discussion...Thunderstorms will become more numerous over the next
couple hours in the central Appalachians as most locations reach
the convective temperature in the low 80s, as indicated in the 12Z
PBZ and RNK soundings. Initiation will be favored first near the
ridge lines, and this is already evident in visible satellite
trends. LightningCast suggests that some lightning, and thus more
vigorous convective rainfall, may begin by 1630Z in at least a few
areas of the Allegheny and Blue Ridge Mountains. For the first
couple hours, convection is likely to move slowly to the northeast
based on hi-res model reflectivity and deep layer mean wind around
10-15 knots. In some cases, this may lead to some training
patterns where the terrain is closer to parallel with the mean
wind vector. But slow storm motion could sustain heavy rain rates
long enough over individual locations in general, and that could
lead to some localized flash flooding.

The probable increase in flash flood threat in the next few hours
is supported by the latest 12Z HREF probabilities showing
increasing chances of 1 inch per hour rain rates and 1hr and 3hr
FFG exceedance in these areas between 17Z and 20Z. The environment
is very supportive of intense instantaneous rain rates with
precipitable water values generally above the 95th percentile for
late June through the depth of the column (based on overall PW
percentiles and CIRA layer PW products). Therefore, it would be
plausible to even see some locations exceed an inch of rain in 30
minutes in the strongest convection.

Much of this area will be upgraded to a Slight Risk on the 16Z Day
1 ERO, which will be issued shortly.

Lamers

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5krKNLV5io90dzqiAS1bpHKqKXjWBI_GpbTGU8W_XEoQ7jYw6_1exHaUzcEs6JM0IALx= J0kaQFHuByq9cl9ZOVIAdD4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41237901 40897858 40647797 39587776 38587806=20
37987901 37237984 37578103 38398081 39497985=20
39937999 40318031 40858008 41197955=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 301540
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-302000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0557
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1139 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Central Appalachians in PA, MD,
WV, and VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301538Z - 302000Z

Summary...Thunderstorms should develop between Noon and 2 PM EDT
in the Allegheny Mountains, Blue Ridge Mountains, southwest
Pennsylvania, and surrounding areas. The storms may initially move
slowly to the northeast, and the slow movement and heavy rain
rates, with over 1 inch of rainfall in an hour, may lead to
localized flash flooding in the early afternoon.

Discussion...Thunderstorms will become more numerous over the next
couple hours in the central Appalachians as most locations reach
the convective temperature in the low 80s, as indicated in the 12Z
PBZ and RNK soundings. Initiation will be favored first near the
ridge lines, and this is already evident in visible satellite
trends. LightningCast suggests that some lightning, and thus more
vigorous convective rainfall, may begin by 1630Z in at least a few
areas of the Allegheny and Blue Ridge Mountains. For the first
couple hours, convection is likely to move slowly to the northeast
based on hi-res model reflectivity and deep layer mean wind around
10-15 knots. In some cases, this may lead to some training
patterns where the terrain is closer to parallel with the mean
wind vector. But slow storm motion could sustain heavy rain rates
long enough over individual locations in general, and that could
lead to some localized flash flooding.

The probable increase in flash flood threat in the next few hours
is supported by the latest 12Z HREF probabilities showing
increasing chances of 1 inch per hour rain rates and 1hr and 3hr
FFG exceedance in these areas between 17Z and 20Z. The environment
is very supportive of intense instantaneous rain rates with
precipitable water values generally above the 95th percentile for
late June through the depth of the column (based on overall PW
percentiles and CIRA layer PW products). Therefore, it would be
plausible to even see some locations exceed an inch of rain in 30
minutes in the strongest convection.

Much of this area will be upgraded to a Slight Risk on the 16Z Day
1 ERO, which will be issued shortly.

Lamers

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9oq2vSjndfvdfxUznyeXb1VL1zbnwv13wmBd_1FUNeE2Oej0ttB7IN5FDrKq5_oBxKWe= koeCY3F58mlm3P4_ZGgp3GY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41237901 40897858 40647797 39587776 38587806=20
37987901 37237984 37578103 38398081 39497985=20
39937999 40318031 40858008 41197955=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 301724
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-302200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0558
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
124 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Areas affected...Central New Mexico and Far Southern Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301718Z - 302200Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are initiating over the mountains of far
southern Colorado and central New Mexico in the late morning, and
should continue to develop into the early afternoon. Any storms
are likely to be very slow moving to nearly stationary, which will
pose a threat for localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding
wherever the storms develop. Burn scars in New Mexico would be
particularly vulnerable if storms develop nearby, but a threat of
flash flooding will exist across the region in general.

Discussion...As of 11 AM MDT, thunderstorms were beginning to
develop in the favored mountain locations from south-central
Colorado through central New Mexico. This is expected to continue
over the next several hours as convective temperature is achieved,
and hi-res model guidance is consistent in showing a high
probability of storms through at least 4 PM MDT (22Z), but
possibly through the remainder of the afternoon. Available
moisture and instability is not particularly anomalous in this
case, so the threat of localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding
should be driven more by extremely slow storm motions. Deep layer
mean wind is generally around 5 knots or less, and simulated
reflectivity on the hi-res guidance shows storms more-or-less
anchored to near their development locations for at least a couple
hours. So even though the instantaneous to 30-min rain rates may
not be exceptional, heavy rain could be sustained long enough to
produce localized rainfall maxima in excess of 2 inches,
especially in New Mexico. This could be enough to lead to flash
flooding based on flash flood guidance values. Burn scar locations
or urban areas would be particularly vulnerable, but any impact
would be dependent on storms developing close enough to those
locations.

Lamers

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_Pui8VAzLlFJfLM41QczHK4q_fnzpu01iBc6LEDgqj3nXeZO_LBX6r0ijlHxJGipTUdg= hGEue2RB7LwECyNxzNd3aCg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37730678 37410603 37500499 36850473 36080513=20
35390520 34810557 34180552 33490550 32820574=20
32830625 34060655 34900662 35610698 36200727=20
36780689 37510728=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 301754
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-302200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0559
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
154 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Pennsylvania, Southern and Central New
Jersey, and Delaware

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301752Z - 302200Z

Summary...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue early
this afternoon in southeast Pennsylvania, southern and central New
Jersey, and portions of Delaware. At times, these thunderstorms
may move very slowly or become nearly stationary, which would lead
to localized areas of very heavy rainfall and potentially flash
flooding, especially if that occurs over urban areas. The threat
of flash flooding should be highest through around 5-6 PM EDT, but
could last longer.

Discussion...Several well-organized thunderstorms have developed
in an area of strong instability from SE PA into S NJ and DE.
Hi-res model guidance has struggled with this, but the
experimental RRFS may be doing the best as of 1730Z. It shows
organized but isolated cells or small clusters persisting across
the area through about 22Z (6 PM EDT), anchoring at times to sea
breeze boundaries or a front draped across the region. There is
some evidence of this already happening with a thunderstorm near
coastal Sussex County, Delaware, and it could conceivably happen
with other storms elsewhere in the region. The environment is very
supportive of intense rain rates with PWs near or above 2 inches
(above the 95th percentile for late June) and very strong
instability. Therefore, hourly rainfall in excess of 2 inches is
plausible and if storms stall in a given location for over an
hour, rapid development of rainfall maxima over 3-4 inches would
be possible. In these areas, flash flooding could develop,
particularly if it intersects with urban areas.

The outlook beyond 21-22Z (5-6 PM EDT) is less certain, as the
hi-res model guidance doesn't look to be completely reliable. It
seems doubtful that all the instability in the region would be
completely exhausted by that time, so a continuation of the flash
flood threat could continue into the early evening. However, the
threat may shift to areas just outside where initial development
is occurring.

Lamers

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-ikzzo3BcEBkJ5Yx9c5lyDTmlbXGWCTsyOCFkQYjxBt_tCvvW41MUTQJOU15BIsiEHIh= n6TnJqEPgwu14Ii9wlPhU4M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40897571 40737499 40397396 39817396 39407463=20
38997486 38377496 38457537 38977564 39537578=20
39827614 40147705 40807667=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 302212
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-010330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0560
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
612 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Areas affected...Eastern OH...West Virginia...Northern MD...Pennsylvania...Southern NY...Parts of NJ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 302210Z - 010330Z

SUMMARY...Unstable, very moist rich environment will likely
continue to support hourly rates of 2"+. Storm interactions with
possible repeating may generate spots of 2-3" resulting in widely
scattered incidents of possible flash flooding past nightfall.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a broad area of disturbed
weather at the apex of large scale ridging over the southern
Mid-Atlantic and points south. A digging large scale trough over
the Upper Great Lakes is providing oblique right entrance ascent
across the Lower Great Lakes, helping to drive deeper layer
southwesterly flow and associated anomalous (1.5-2.5 standard
anomalies) deep moisture through the Upper Ohio River Valley into
the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, ranging mainly above 2",
with spots of 2.25" noted. A slow moving warm front leads the
ushering of enhanced moisture and unstable air across the Hudson
Valley into the Lower Mohawk Valley, though much of the area
upstream remains quiet unstable with pockets of 2000-3000 J/kg
still remaining toward the end of day (greater further east into
the Mid-Atlantic).

Visible and 10.3 EIR loops show numerous clusters of thunderstorms
across the area; though as each has cycled and produced outflow to
support newer downstream generations; the broad southwesterly
steering upstream has brought some increased organization into
some SW to NE linear features through E OH/W PA into WV. Flow is
stronger having limited duration for initial
development/downdrafts, but with the component of alignment to the
mean wind, there are widely scattered incidents of short-term
training increasing duration to support localized 1.5- 2" totals.
Within the complex terrain that still remains fairly well
saturated, these localized totals may induce flash flooding given
hourly FFG over 1-1.5" and less than 2" in 3hrs; but may only
affect one or two watersheds/narrow valleys in the Allegheny
Plateau.

Further east, cell motions are a bit weaker being closer to the
apex of the larger scale ridge, though larger outflow boundaries
are being generated and interacting with Bay/Ocean Breeze or other
outflow boundaries to trigger newer/broader updrafts. Storm
interaction may further slow forward motions resulting in
increased duration that may last for slightly greater than 1hr. So
spots of 2-3" are possible as 18z HREF suggests with 40-50%
neighborhood probabilities for 2" and 20-30% exist over
east-central PA into N MD. As such, incidents of widely scattered
flash flooding remain possible through the late evening into early
overnight as instability slowly diminishes with loss of solar
heating.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7Br1aZ4UwNf_HXpYwde9yFHWOEa8DJkYYExKm30Ls9GFxAxtDEpI841UaHdntHyDkLO9= TZfEtVAsMIoFssLtHIR-ac8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...LWX...PBZ...PHI...
RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42897624 42387504 41017468 40357465 39577591=20
39247672 39057733 38647910 38208089 37738173=20
37948231 38848362 40588259 41718137 42357991=20
42657818=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 302238
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-010340-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0561
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
637 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Areas affected...Southern Oklahoma...North and Northwest Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 302240Z - 010340Z

SUMMARY...Initially slow moving, but very efficient thunderstorms
with 2-2.5"/hr rates will slowly propagate south and westward with
storm mergers and localized spots of 3-4" resulting in scattered
incidents of possible flash flooding

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um EIR shows explosive convective
development along the stalled outflow boundary from this morning's
convective complex from Hughes to Comanche county. MLCAPEs to
4000 J/kg and total PWats of 2" were trapped along the
northwestern edge of the sub-tropical ridge over much of Texas
into the northwest Gulf, the return flow axis remained nearly
aloft and generally parallel to the surface outflow boundary
though the dip (positive tilt) in the northern stream synoptic
trough has helped with support a 50kt jet with broad right
entrance ascent across much of the TX Panhandle into central OK.

Southerly flow across TX but northern flow out of KS/N OK has
helped to provide ample directional convergence but recent uptick
to 20kts from th south/southwest provided the deep layer
convergence to result in the entire line developing. CIRA LPW
shows the convergence is further increasing flux and TPW values of
2-2.25" that deep layer vertical moisture flux will support very
efficient rates up to 2-2.5"/hr. That directional shear and
proximity to the jet also support a bit of effective bulk shear
toward 20-25kts for modest organization to keep the downdrafts
fully collapsing into the updrafts and with weak dry air only a
few hundred J/kg will be utilized for cold pool generation.=20
Combine that with weak steering flow through depth toward the east
at 5kts; propagation will likely be mostly south and west into the
15-20kts of confluent boundary layer flow. So a hour or so should
support localized totals up to 3-4" before dropping south and
west.=20

Interaction with cells developing along outflow boundaries from
older complex over the Permian Basin will increase potential for
mergers and storm scale interaction to help cells increase totals
as the complex drops southward into northern TX as well. FFG
values are reduced further north, so best potential will be early
before moving into higher FFG values along/south of the Red River,
but localized flash flooding is still possible .

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!894nxsMkMuuDXxCipbCVd18CuWJnYxbuetLGZlXB_WmMGDLjcTLYAxpg7GQQxdVizjEu= vbagok35x2XvtmbL2rlIN6w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35319714 35099567 34389521 33349583 32929803=20
32589952 32920040 33380108 33890099 34350044=20
35069890=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 010049
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-010630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0562
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
849 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Areas affected...Southeast MO...Southern IL...Southwest IND...Far
Western KY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010050Z - 010630Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, efficient thunderstorms to increase in
coverage with cell mergers, potential repeat tracks resulting in
localized 2-4" totals resulting in scattered possible flash
flooding tonight.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows a southern stream shortwave
sliding out of SE MO into S IL south of the digging synoptic
northern stream trough across WI to NE KS with an associated cold
front. This front continues to dig south across the middle Great
Lakes but due to the shortwave, a weak surface wave has developed
in the buckling mid-level flow near Quincy, IL; before the cold
front digs across central MO. The mid-level binary interaction
between the shortwave and northern stream will further slow deep
layer flow and help with boundary layer cyclogenesis
near/southeast of the St.Louis Metro.=20

Low level winds are already backing and deep layer moisture is
increasing across S IL with solid convergence breaking out
numerous updrafts. MLCAPEs of 2000+ J/kg and PWats over 2" will
allow for strong moisture flux convergence into stronger updrafts
and will support rates of of 2-2.25"/hr. These cells should
remain along the southeast and eastern quadrants of the shortwave
with perhaps a flanking line along the effective cold
front/trailing convergence trof back into the Bootheel of MO.=20
Cell motions will continue to be eastward to east-northeastward
with some solid potential for mergers/training. Spots of 2-4"
will become scattered acoss S IL into SW IND/W KY over the next
4-6hrs with possible localized flash flooding.

A bit more uncertainty with respect to flash flooding will occur
with ongoing cells along the synoptic cold front. Most should
remain progressive, but near the pivot; deeper confluence and
chaotic cells motions as the cyclone tries to vertically
stack/pivot may allow for some widely scattered cells that could
pivot or potentially remain stationary as well. Cells may
initially be close to Metro St. Louis to further make evolution of
potential flash flooding more concerning, as broader impermeable
surfaces would result in greater runoff IF cells do end up
lingering in that vicinity further increasing potential for flash
flooding.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!44AqSVeDllzwflwf0drMlrW1BejRylhHjVeRkBfuXLOCpkfj6FnkpP0-rqT5BzrPLrV_= xPvPaqHPxh4o5iUAMZxKWkM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LSX...MEG...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39938840 39818771 39178716 38418712 37948730=20
37568743 36628879 36378987 36499049 37299055=20
37889064 38559137 38949136 39299103 39528961=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 010133
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-010700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0563
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
933 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Areas affected...Central AR...Southeast OK...Western TN...Northern
MS...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010135Z - 010700Z

SUMMARY...Very moist/unstable axis with favorable deep layer flow
for repeating/training cells. Spots of 2-4" totals in
short-duration pose localized flash flooding through the early
overnight period.

DISCUSSION...RAP analysis shows deep layer convergence,
particularly along the upwind convergence zone along northwest
edge of 850mb ridge near mature convective complex in Southwest
OK. A speed max of 20-25kts at 925-850mb is pressing eastward and
expanding the convective line into western AR. The stronger
convergence connects up to the old outflow boundary from last
evening and intersects with the far southwest edge of trailing
confluence of the exiting MCV/shortwave in SE MO. Total PWats are
well above normal in the 2-2.25" range throughout the axis which
further increases as westerly winds back to more southerly through
the MS Valley into W TN/NW MS; resulting in enhanced instability
pools of 2500-3000 J/kg across central AR and into the Delta
Region.=20

Northern stream trough is digging with warming in the GOES-E WV
suite across NEB entering KS/NW MO. This will continue to
maintain stronger deeper layer steering flow parallel to the
boundary; though broaden the focus of convergence a bit more north
to south. As such, 850mb winds will maintain and be more westerly
to support back-building environment with deep layer westerly flow
across AR. So with stronger updrafts and very deep moisture,
vertical moisture flux could support 2-3"/hr rain rates; though
there is some uncertainty cells will order to train ideally for
sizable totals to exceed higher FFG values across SW to central
AR.=20=20

Convergence reduces across central to eastern AR before increasing
again where LLJ has turned more southerly through the MS River
Valley. This will reduce favorable training orientation, but
stronger updrafts moving across reduced FFGs and recently
saturated soils across N MS and W TN may allow for widely
scattered 2-3" totals resulting in localized flash flooding
through the early overnight period.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_uxYNr-16LVX457Am9wU5GKgi1SaupoaN1EJNERrys6QR_Y0wn5BHfZge4CxnRL_mHn_= mFaf8WVvz2pKdjMMvlXjBY4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36328880 35908822 34908833 34098899 33929084=20
33839179 33759310 33809478 34469514 35089450=20
35179264 35449106 36249019=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 010329
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-010727-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0564
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1128 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Areas affected...southern/southeastern Pennsylvania and vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 010327Z - 010727Z

Summary...Additional flash flood impacts are possible as deep,
moist convection migrates from west-southwest to east-northeast
across the region. Over time, nocturnal low-level stabilization
should result in lesser coverage of storms through 07Z.

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues across the discussion
area, with significant impacts noted in/near Lancaster County, PA
recently. The region remains under the influence of weak
mid-level shortwave troughs passing over the region. These
troughs were interacting with a very moist, unstable airmass (2+
inch PW values and 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE) to promote scattered to
widespread thunderstorm development. Some of these storms were
training, with 1-2 inch/hr rain rates falling near Lancaster,
Reading, and surrounding locales on top of saturated grounds that
have already experienced 2-6 inches of rainfall today. Locally
significant flash flood impacts are expected to continue in the
short term (through 05-06Z).

Over time, nocturnal boundary layer stabilization should result in
a decrease in convective coverage across the discussion area.
However, low-level flow into the discussion area remains strong
(25-30 kts at 850mb) and a pool of 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE resides over
Maryland just south of ongoing, strong convection. Mid/upper
level fields also aren't necessarily prohibitive of any
redevelopment of convection through the night. Although
convective coverage is expected to decrease some over the next 2-4
hours, sensitive areas of southeastern Pennsylvania (especially
those that are already experiencing significant flash flood
impacts) will need to be monitored carefully for additional heavy
rainfall episodes through 07Z/3a EDT.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!45x22xs5QR6l0k90yrp21pYNuFEdySiVvMeNlHznflO_mkeliLby8B0bpm3USZ5HvWwl= BRfv0-xIB4gV6EOkoI6ua20$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41417691 41187566 40497462 39847443 39317530=20
39267695 39767837 40417905 41237832=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 010415
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-010814-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0565
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1215 AM EDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Areas affected...southern Indiana and vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 010414Z - 010814Z

Summary...A cluster of thunderstorms was moving toward sensitive
parts of Indiana that received 3-11 inches of rainfall over the
past 24-36 hours. Flash flooding is likely with this activity.

Discussion...Deep convection has persisted across much of
southern/southeastern Illinois over the past couple hours despite
nocturnal boundary layer cooling. Abundant low- and mid-level
moisture across the area ahead of the convection was helping to
maintain an axis of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the storms
while also supporting efficient rain rates within the convection.=20
Areas of 1-3 inch/hr rain rates have been estimated per MRMS,
which has occasionally exceeded local FFG thresholds and prompted
spots of low to moderate MRMS Flash responses.

Unfortunately, this cluster of heavy-rain-producing convection was
moving toward portions of southern/central Indiana (near
Bloomington) that have received between 3-11 inches of rainfall
over the past 24-36 hours. Ground conditions are saturated as a
result, and it is likely that as the cluster of storms moves
eastward, FFG thresholds will be exceeded and excessive runoff
will occur. Locally significant flash flood impacts cannot be
ruled out.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9d8SB6JBcr5mvmQK6Y3CshSOz-9cUZvGD00qlTjNBTdHCa8xM0rrhTH0QYpFlqphTuHu= tByvELhu7-7iks58FArI734$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39848510 39498437 38818470 38088624 37888802=20
38178930 39328825 39588738=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 011213
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-011810-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0566
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
812 AM EDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Upper Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011210Z - 011810Z

SUMMARY...Ongoing showers and embedded thunderstorms across the
Ohio Valley are expected to increase in coverage this morning,
while potentially repeating and containing rainfall rates briefly
over 2"/hr. Low FFG and saturated soils in the region elevate the
potential for isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding
through at least midday.

DISCUSSION...GOES-EAST WV-ML imagery this morning shows a
pronounced upper trough sliding across the Great Lakes and Midwest
while strong northeasterly flow aloft occurs downstream over the
Upper Ohio Valley. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are already
evident on radar this morning and mostly progressing
east-northeast ahead of an approaching cold front. Model soundings
in the Ohio Valley suggest convective temperatures around 80
degrees, which should be realized after a few hours of mid-morning
sunlight. This will allow for thunderstorm coverage to blossom
quickly both ahead and along the approaching cold front, which
will increase the scattered flash flooding threat. Precipitable
water values remain high when compared to climatology with values
ranging from 1.7-2.1" (highest over KY and southern IN) per SPC's
mesoanalysis, allowing for thunderstorms to contain efficient
rainfall and hourly rates potentially reaching 2-2.5".
Additionally, westerly flow throughout the column will support any
activity forming ahead of the cold front to potentially train in
an east-west orientation.

Both HRRR and experimental RRFS guidance this morning show the
potential for isolated 2-3" totals by about 18z and the 06z HREF
depicts low chances (20-25%) of exceeding 3". However, this part
of the country contains saturated and sensitive terrain
susceptible to flash flooding. NASA SPoRT highlights 0-40cm soil
moisture percentiles above the 80th percentile across much of
southern OH and southwest PA. Additionally, FFG remains low and is
largely below 2" in 3 hours, something well within reach on a
scattered basis per the latest available CAMs. Given the largely
isolated to scattered nature of convection and the potential for a
localized linear axis of repeating cells, flash flooding is
considered possible. Should convection repeat over communities
most prone to flooding and given the moist environment at hand,
locally considerable flooding is also possible through at least
midday.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8l7utONPybga3tzZmMyGp_tz5OEAKnklu_u0qVevo3_PA8tVL61IJM3Enkj6-gKYkYH0= 84Hy2buirMZhcb9rGnlz5Ds$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40577916 40087886 39217957 38388090 37968258=20
37778400 37728559 38098620 38828602 39658527=20
40128429 40368288 40518098=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 011633
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-012230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0567
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1233 PM EDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the Central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 011630Z - 012230Z

SUMMARY...Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon across the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic
within a very moist and unstable environment. Maximum rainfall
rates of 2-3"/hr are anticipated and may overlap with the highly
urban corridor between Washington D.C. and Philadelphia, as well
as compromised terrain in southeast PA due to heavy rainfall last
night. Numerous instances of flash flooding are likely, with some
significant imapacts possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-East visible satellite imagery depicts a growing
cumulus field along the Blue Ridge Mts of northern/central VA
through the Mid-Atlantic, with recent LightningCast values spiking
along the Blue indicative of convective initiation imminent (seen
now on radar after 1610Z). These storms are developing ahead of an
upper trough swinging through the Midwest, prompting strengthening west-northwesterly mean layer flow. Additionally, GOES-EAST WV-ML
highlights a disturbance off the Southeast coastline which is
helping to squeeze mid-to-upper level moisture transport towards
the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. PWATs are well above
climatology (above the 90th percentile per the 00z ECENS) and even
over the daily record for IAD (12z sounding of 2.07").
Additionally, clear skies most of the morning across much of the
Mid-Atlantic has allowed for SBCAPE to increase over 4000 J/kg
from the central Chesapeake Bay northward into central NJ per
SPC's mesoanalysis. The greatest bulk shear remains to the north
over PA, but local bay/sea breezes and terrain should help
developing updrafts organize and maintain strength.

Additionally, the mean layer west-northwesterly flow will allow
for repeating cells in this direction as leading convection
eventually merges with activity progressing over the central
Appalachians. Rainfall rates are likely to be very intense within
the available environment and produce hourly rates up to 3", with
instantaneous rates even higher. The limiting factor remains if
convection can remain progressive, which would reduce the
potential rainfall totals but not limit the impacts from rainfall
rates alone. Southeast PA in particular is extremely susceptible
to these intense rainfall rates as 1-hr FFG in the area is below
1". It is this region, and the highly urbanized locations, where
significant impacts are most likely should convection overlap and
rainfall amounts maximize the available environment. Elsewhere
across the Mid-Atlantic, scattered to numerous instances of flash
flooding are also likely, but progressive west-northwesterly storm
motions should limit severity.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_tULk7ArSfYZoKFHpQZiGsb0fKAJSZ5cGT6wyCiRur84oXeUcLoOTtQK85VqMTkBX1En= KRQakoOpCamDAvpG9yXfC-g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...PHI...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40867651 40597506 40107395 39557406 39207530=20
38927633 38337757 37837852 37817937 38277981=20
39397947 40447886 40857783=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 011749
FFGMPD
TXZ000-012250-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0568
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
148 PM EDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Areas affected...South Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011750Z - 012250Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving
north-northwestward into South Texas are capable of producing
isolated instances of flash flooding and 2-3"/hr rates through at
least early this evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar and satellite imagery depicts
north-south bands of tropical downpours streaming north-northwest
into South Texas from the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico. These
thunderstorms are occurring on the northwest periphery of a
mid-level low churning over north-central Barry (can be tracked to
the remnants of former T.S. Barry). Maximum estimated hourly
rainfall rates from MRMS are around 2-2.5" over the last hour or
so, with 1.55" recorded at the Brownsville International Airport
over the last 3 hours. While this initial band appears to hang up
along the coast, a separate one approaching from far northeast
Mexico may provide greater coverage of heavy rainfall this
afternoon based on recent radar scans and strong southerly 850-700
flow around 20-25 kts. This is allowing PWs to remain well above
what's necessary for intense rainfall rates as values climb to
near 2.5" (over the 95th climatological percentile per the 00z
ECENS). Additionally MLCAPE values of 1000 J/kg remain just inland
from the Gulf as 2000 J/kg linger in the inflow region over the
far western Gulf. Even though storm motions may be fast and on a north-northwesterly direction, upwind propagation vectors are weak
and may lead to backbuilding towards the higher instability over
the western Gulf. This supports an environment for additional
heavy rainfall that may compound to lead to isolated flash
flooding concerns over a region with relatively high FFG.

3-hr FFG in far South Texas remains around 3", locally lower along
the Rio Grande Valley. Even though CAMs are highly uncertain
regarding the northward extent of heaviest thunderstorms, 12z HREF
probs of at least 3" in 6-hrs (ending 21z) are around 30% for the
southern Rio Grande Valley region of South Texas. This again when
combined with current radar/satellite supports the potential for
localized instances of flash flooding.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!517jVvMtSJcexGf_MNgLKbNenlxCfNRbdBslmsMOBOK1eF02mpGkx0auV3T8X_6pJ7l2= Jx3Q7OOtI07xuAd0JywvaTs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27889929 27799841 27129731 26369696 25819719=20
25769779 26179878 26749953 27449971=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 011825
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-020024-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0569
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
224 PM EDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 011824Z - 020024Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms are advancing ahead of a
sweeping cold front and producing rainfall rates briefly over
2"/hr. These storms are expected to continue through this
afternoon and move over particularly flash flood-prone terrain.

DISCUSSION...Current radar observations depict widely scattered
thunderstorms pushing eastward across the eastern Ohio Valley and
central Appalachians. Some storms over western NC and VA were
initially tied to the terrain, but have begun to slowly progress east-northeast. Otherwise, thunderstorm activity spanning from
eastern TN to WV is ahead of an advancing cold front and upper
level trough clearly evident in GOES-East WV-ML imagery. This
region also continues to fall within a favorable right entrance
region of an upper jet racing northeastward from northern OH.

PWATs remain high and above 2" for parts of eastern KY per SPC's
mesoanalysis, with mean layer winds out of the west-southwest.
This supports the ongoing and expected heavy rainfall rates as
storms progress eastward. SBCAPE also continues to increase and is
estimated above 3000 J/kg across southwest WV as of 18z. However,
given the current coverage of thunderstorms in an east-west
orientation, repeating rounds of storms are possible and likely to
lead to scattered instances of flash flooding. 3-hr FFG in this
region spans from 3" to as low as 1.5" along the Appalachian
crest. The 12z HREF highlights a large region as having 40-60%
chances for exceeding 2" per 3-hrs by 00z tonight across southern
WV, eastern KY, and along the central Appalachians of southwest VA
and northwest NC. The available environment combined with ongoing
radar represations and CAM output leads to the expectation for
additional scattered flash flooding, with the most likely impacts
for the typically flood-prone terrain.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9zhBV9zbbCjX1ARKKk-QdIBpxyR548A71RlGCW2MVFggbWTKIbeNj3uXd2iemuAwmlp5= pGe7pzyXrBhtDSl80UdR1vU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39488018 39187933 38187932 37187970 36348062=20
36018218 36098392 36558473 37328458 38468326=20
39308130=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 012245
FFGMPD
NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-020444-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0570
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
644 PM EDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 012244Z - 020444Z

Summary...Flash flooding threat will continue through the evening
hours as cells containing 2-3"/hr rainfall rates at times train
and repeat.

Discussion...Radar depicts widespread thunderstorm coverage across
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast ahead of an approaching shortwave
trough and associated cold front. Throughout the afternoon,
training and repeating of these storms along a northeast-southwest
axis led to prolific heavy rainfall across the region, with
numerous instances of flash flooding reported.

Over the last several hours, the most intense cells have
propagated southeastward into the instability axis, characterized
by 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 2-2.3" PWATs according to
objective analysis output. This regime should continue through the
evening hours, with periods of cell training expected as the
steering flow remains quasi-parallel to the synoptic forcing and
leading composite outflow. The approaching shortwave trough and
strengthening right-entrance region ascent this evening should
also favor expanding convective coverage over the next several
hours. Recent runs of both the HRRR and RRFS consistently depict
swaths of 2-4" through 4-5Z across the highlighted region where
cells can train the longest. This should maintain the threat of
flash flooding through the evening hours -- some of which could be
significant if it can overlap with hard hit areas.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_Zd6WnU0LOfO_Sk4BN7th6XED3_DOUPWBDj2QEvmYfmUChjue6a4z9ejZND7kWC7ug4n= DL_CJ63GKZSZ0jpygCe8_pI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...LWX...MRX...PHI...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40087395 39467375 38147530 37367678 36857781=20
36097948 35118126 35248209 36378183 37897973=20
38707704 39807495=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 021237
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-021800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0571
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
836 AM EDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Areas affected...High Deserts of California and Nevada

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021235Z - 021800Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms blossoming across the High
Deserts of the Southwest will continue through the morning.
Despite fast motion, rainfall rates of 0.5"/hr could result in
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning shows rapidly
expanding showers and embedded thunderstorms blossoming across
southeast CA and southern NV. These storms are developing despite
modest instability (SPC RAP analysis 500 J/kg of MUCAPE) but with
a steady increasing trend noted. This instability is overlapping
with PWs that are as high as 0.8 to 1.2 inches, or above the 90th
percentile for the date. Offsetting the modest thermodynamics,
forcing for ascent is increasing downstream of a strengthening
upper trough digging across CA leaving height falls and spokes of
vorticity/PVA across the Southwest, collocated with a low-level
convergence axis on the periphery of an 850mb moisture surge out
of Arizona. This ascent is helping to cause the rapid increase in
convective coverage this morning.

Rainfall rates have been estimated via KESX to be as high as
0.5"/hr at times, which despite rapid storm motions on 850-300mb
mean winds of 20-25 kts from the south, has produced 3-hr rainfall
according to MRMS of up to 0.75 inches. As the ascent continues to
maximize through the morning downstream of the upper trough, the
low-level flow surges higher moisture northeast, and instability
climbs through the morning, activity should expand and intensify.
Although the CAMs are struggling with the coverage and intensity
of ongoing convection, the environment suggests that storms should
continue for several more hours, and the HRRR-forced UA WRF
indicates rain rates will continue at as much as 0.5"/hr through
this aftn with a slow northward advance of heavy rainfall. At the
same time, convection will likely build repeatedly into the
greater thermodynamics over the High Deserts of CA, with lines of
storms training south to north producing locally as much as 1.5"
of rain.

These impressive rain rates will move across soils that are
saturated above the 90th percentile with respect to 0-40cm depths
according to NASA SPoRT. While impacts due to this rainfall are
likely to be isolated and focused across any sensitive terrain
features or urban areas, where any longer-duration training can
occur through the next several hours, instances of flash flooding
are possible.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_yV5bA2r-YrpC5-cxWemp6wayyCv4X9W8JMxXw4iO7pjXjHkr3MEhMYnxZ7j3q9ytU7d= fFZ8h7lJR33hfaLKKeb1EDg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LKN...PSR...SGX...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38391576 38031475 37381394 36081394 34941409=20
34231431 33861470 33831530 33981583 34391647=20
34911710 35691768 36621780 37941705=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 021526
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-022100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0572
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1126 AM EDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Areas affected...Pee Dee region of SC through the Tidewater region
of VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021525Z - 022100Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will gradually expand in
coverage and intensify through the afternoon ahead of a front
sagging slowly across the area. Rainfall rates at times this
afternoon will likely exceed 2"/hr, leading to 2-3" of rain with
locally higher amounts approaching 5". Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are expanding across
eastern/central North Carolina and far southern Virginia this
morning. This convection is blossoming rapidly downstream of a
slow moving, almost stationary, front which will eventually kick
east as a cold front later this afternoon. The evolution of this
front will be driven by a mid-level trough axis that will
gradually swing east, and the overlap of the accompanying height
falls with low-level convergence along the front will drive ascent
to produce numerous thunderstorms through the afternoon. The
environment into which this ascent will impinge will become
increasingly favorable for heavy rainfall as 850mb SW flow of 20
kts resupplies PWs of 2-2.2 inches and MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg
northeastward. Additionally, this low-level inflow will equal or
exceed the mean wind in the generally weakly forced environment,
suggesting additional ascent through convergence.

Rainfall rates so far this morning have been estimated to be above
2"/hr in the strongest cores, and a flash flood warning was just
issued near Emporia, VA. While general cell motions have been
modest on 0-6km mean winds of 15 kts, effective storm motions are
much slower thanks to Corfidi vectors aligned increasingly
anti-parallel to the mean flow and collapsed to just 5kts or less.
This suggests that as the afternoon progresses and storms become
more numerous, backbuilding/training of cells will become more
common, lengthening the duration of heavy rainfall across many
areas. Both the HREF and REFS suggest a moderate/high chance
(40-70%) of rainfall rates exceeding 2"/hr, and with warm cloud
depths rising to 13,000-14,000 ft, efficient warm rain processes
may produce brief 3+"/hr rates. Through training, this has the
potential (40-60% chance) of producing 2-3" of rain, with locally
as much as 5" possible.

FFG across this region is elevated (generally 3-4"/3hrs) so
exceedance probabilities arelow, peaking at just 10-20%. This
should generally limit the coverage of flash flood impacts today.
However, the intensity of these rain rates, especially where
training occurs or if they repeat across urban areas, could result
in instances of flash flooding through the afternoon.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!75qQqfzl-yuapZAnE9C8i93lZa6z7NJym1GEuz-7KLWFd3ROPX9QWTou-OeIvczrIf_5= 5RNe9aaNSo8PjNuSToj9wBU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37367652 37087614 36777590 36237548 35677540=20
35207583 34687690 34277766 34027809 33937846=20
34097911 34318003 34538030 34868032 35487990=20
36397902 37247742=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 021850
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-030050-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0573
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 PM EDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021850Z - 030050Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms developing this afternoon may
contain rainfall rates up to 1"/hr and overlap with sensitive burn
scars, urban regions, and complex terrain of southeast Arizona and
southwest New Mexico. Isolated to scattered instances of flash
flooding are possible.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar and GOES19 IR satellite imagery depict
numerous small-scale thunderstorms developing this afternoon
across the Southwest in response to diurnal heating and within an
anomalously moist atmosphere. PWs are estimated to be within
1.2-1.5" per SPC's mesoanalysis, which falls between the 75th and
90th climatological percentile per the 00z ECENS. Additionally,
SBCAPE values are largely above 1000 J/kg across this region,
which is necessary for coverage of thunderstorms to produce
scattered instances of flash flooding and rainfall rates up to
1"/hr.

Mean layer flow in this region remains weak and out of the southas
an upper low churns well to the west over coastal CA, which should
lead to eventually thunderstorms becoming outflow dependent and
tending to progress southward towards greater instability. As
storms do this, cell mergers could briefly increase rainfall rates
and potential flash flooding impacts. The 12z HREF shows the
greatest potential for rainfall amounts exceeding FFG near and
south of Tucson, AZ and along the AZ-Mexico border. It is here
where a mid-level convergence axis may focus thunderstorm activity
late this afternoon once storms reach their peak maturity and
updrafts collapse. Given the sensitive burn scars across parts of
southwest NM and the urban center of Tucson, scattered instances
of flash flooding are possible should these slow-moving
thunderstorms overlap.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8uag6s8NOjDaFJQ7N8mqZuASUnwK3rPI-9CwoXgQapVQzht_yEaSwGbOnZe3eLrMj4Or= Zn7njssz5U1RruYZR_tJpsE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34891065 34130980 33930895 34040789 33670742=20
32630749 31720781 31190846 31070976 31171122=20
31481221 32061283 32731275 32941177 33371144=20
34221151 34731124=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 022059
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-030057-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0574
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
458 PM EDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Areas affected...Pee Dee region of South Carolina into far
southern North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 022057Z - 030057Z

SUMMARY...A localized threat of flash flooding is expected to
continue through this evening across parts of the Pee Dee region
of South Carolina and far southern North Carolina, including the
Cape Fear region. Training thunderstorms with rates up to 3"/hr
and rainfall totals up to 4" are possible, potentially leading to
instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery and surface observations depict
repeating thunderstorms over eastern SC and far southern NC
associated with an area of surface convergence ahead of an
approaching cold front. This area of convergence is also being
aided by a sea breeze denoted by GOES19 visible imager over SC,
which should continue to be oriented parallel to 850mb flow over
the next few hours and add to the training thunderstorm potential.
Hourly rainfall rates have been estimated by MRMS as high 3" and
when combined with the repeating nature of cells could lead to
isolated flash flooding concerns. Even though the region is known
for its sandy soils and high FFG (1-hr FFG of 2.5-4.0"), some
localized totals of 4" could lead to isolated instances of flash
flood. This is of particular concern in low-lying or urban
locations.

PW values per SPC's mesoanalysis remain above 2" and as high at
2.4" in eastern NC, with MLCAPE values in the inflow region of
central SC greater than 2500 J/kg. This environment supports the
19z HRRR depiction of 3-hrly rainfall amounts possibly exceeding
3" and nearing local FFG.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6QxlGEsfocsB6wSOV6ULBqf_KP7-FpPEBN2WpsU1TTsl3rRIDwXicQOklBBCuEMYkp6f= Xe53wF3TwSc4JXCWbTS3cck$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...ILM...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34657918 34527801 34327755 34017751 33817789=20
33777842 33687892 33417937 33527977 33907997=20
34417977=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 030050
FFGMPD
AZZ000-030550-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0575
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
850 PM EDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Areas affected...Parts of west-central into southern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030050Z - 030550Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms containing rainfall rates up
to 1.5"/hr are expected to continue early tonight and may produce
isolated instances of flash flooding, particularly should storms
converge near the Phoenix metropolitan area.

DISCUSSION...GOES19 IR imagery shows cooling cloudtops associated
with strengthening thunderstorms this evening across parts of
central AZ. This ongoing while an upper low over central CA
continues to funnel a plentiful amount of moisture northward into
the Desert Southwest. SPC's mesoanalysis depicts the region with
widespread PWATs above 1.5"and MLCAPE generally between 1000-2000
J/kg. This environment is sufficient for 1.5"/hr rates that could
overcome the dry complex desert terrain to lead to rapid runoff
and flash flooding. Additionally, mean layer winds remain
relatively light (per the 23z RAP) and around 5-10 kts out of the south-southwest. This leads to thunderstorms dominantly outflow
dependent, as seem in current radar visuals, but also tied to an
instability gradient extending across southwest AZ in a
northwest-southeast orientation. This is where the strongest
storms are current located in west-central and south-central AZ.

Recent 23z HRRR, while not perfect, has a decent handle on ongoing
convection and depicts the potential for isolated to scattered
1-hrly totals of 1-2" to continue through at least 05z, while also
encroaching upon the Phoenix metro. This area is also highlighted
by RAP guidance as an area of increasing low-level convergence and
MLCAPE by about 02z or so. Given the relatively quick outflow
dominated storm motions, flash flooding coverage is expected to be
isolated.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7pgdIXQgcu6i7l4VV4vPfUwixECDXtd_BjM6xJ_h_lquMi0L8J8rqanL4ruVnxvDPLC0= 7EFLw5r1t1T7Q1nW2nv6-l8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34511202 34221105 33411059 32201100 31601168=20
31531227 31761266 32571286 33151328 33641411=20
34061405 34351343=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 030620
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-031130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0576
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
218 AM EDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...northwestern AZ, southern NV into eastern CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030617Z - 031130Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding
will be possible across portions of northwestern AZ, southern NV
into eastern CA through 11Z. High rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1.0
inches in 15 minutes will be possible with storm totals near 2
inches.

DISCUSSION...Area radar and GOES West infrared satellite imagery
showed an increasing trend in convection over northwestern AZ,
centered over central and southern Mohave County through 06Z. Low
level confluence and low level moisture increasing from a
combination of remnant outflow from the east and low level winds
advecting in moisture from the south to southeast have allowed for
an increase in MLCAPE over western/northwestern AZ with 06Z SPC
mesoanalysis data showing 1000 to 2000+ J/kg. The SSE to NNW
oriented instability max was co-located with anomalous moisture
with SPC mesoanalysis estimated PW values of 1.5 inches along the
CA/AZ border to 1.8 inches near PHX.

Continued development of convection is expected over northwestern
AZ, southern NV and eastern CA as low level moisture increases
instability to the west and slightly north over the tri-state
region over the next few hours. Aloft, the region resides to the
east of an upper level trough over south-central CA with a 50-60
kt jet max measured by GOES West DMV over eastern NV, placing
locations over the tri-state region within the favored
right-entrance region for ascent. Mean steering flow from the
south to southwest at 10-20 kt should keep individual cells moving
but upstream development could allow for brief training with high
rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1.0 inches in 15 minutes, with similar
rates observed earlier in the night to the west of the Phoenix
metro. Any instances of flash flooding over southern Nevada,
northwestern AZ and eastern CA should be isolated to widely
scattered in coverage and storm total rainfall is expected to max
out near 2 inches.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8DzBAAUfqvX8vr9XWeQSdqI7A_OPmPrluBuIjX-NFmCF4rniF8zFDXw2-uaui8axegoZ= -rzsWxNXSz_cerKGN97gswE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37331563 37161428 36151322 34351332 33701460=20
34101540 35471630 36721641=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031135
FFGMPD
TXZ000-031700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0577
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
734 AM EDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...Portions of West Texas from the Big Bend through
the Edwards Plateaui

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031134Z - 031700Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage this morning and move slowly across parts of West Texas.
Rainfall rates at times may reach 1-2"/hr, leading to 1-3" of
rain. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The GOES-E IR imagery this morning shows an expanding
area of cooling cloud tops over the Mexican state of Coahuila in
response to a potent shortwave lifting northward over the
Serranias del Burro. These cooling cloud tops are associated with
intensifying convection approaching the Big Bend of Texas, and
although reflectivity over the area is sparse at this time, the
GOES-E GREMLIN radar emulation appears to match the IR imagery
quite nicely showing higher reflectivity lifting towards the
international border. At the same time, showers have begun to
develop across the Edwards Plateau in response to a plume of
increasing MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg collocated with PWs that are
analyzed by the SPC RAP to be 1.8 to 2.2 inches, or above the 99th
percentile, thanks in part to a connection to tropical moisture
associated with Tropical Storm Flossie over the Eastern Pacific
noted via the ALPW products.

Although the CAMs are struggling to resolve the ongoing activity,
and admittedly are not exceptionally aggressive with rainfall the
next few hours, the environment and evolution support heavy
rainfall through the morning. Low-level S/SE flow measured at
850mb on the VWPs at both DFX and MAF are around 20 kts, which is
helping to transport the elevated PWs northward, and this flow may
be locally accelerated downstream of the approaching shortwave.
This will help to further improve the local thermodynamic
environment, while at the same time leading to locally enhanced
convergence into the mean wind which is generally around 10 kts.
This evolution suggests that storms will increase in coverage
(with additional ascent provided via the shortwave itself) and
then move slowly/chaotically as Corfidi vectors veer strongly to
the right of the mean wind and bulk shear remains minimal.
Although the CAMs are not initializing very well, the accompanying
HREF and REFS ensemble solutions do indicate increasing coverage
of 10-30% probabilities for 1"/hr rates, leading to 1-3" of rain
with isolated higher amounts.

FFG across the region is highly variable due a wide variation in
7-day rainfall, but in some places the 3-hr FFG is as low as 1.5
inches, and 0-40cm soil moisture just north of the international
border is above the 95th percentile. This indicates that some
areas are locally vulnerable to rapid runoff, so as storms spread
northward and expand/intensify, instances of flash flooding could
result.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_8n5E9jOMxbByLpSD-CCFumC0eNUM-l0q9alrTzlNzLJ8mBnWdDAmmwgGqfVwW7DYxhG= tHWW4ZDttHByCH2LPad7jGs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32390144 32240056 31970032 31319998 30569973=20
29989966 29399983 28950014 28870061 29200124=20
29440185 29150266 28960313 28870351 29080407=20
29500445 29710463 30180465 30640416 31200337=20
31350324 32100231=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031138
FFGMPD
TXZ000-031700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0577...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
738 AM EDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Corrected for areas affected

Areas affected...Portions of West Texas from the Big Bend through
the Edwards Plateau

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031134Z - 031700Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage this morning and move slowly across parts of West Texas.
Rainfall rates at times may reach 1-2"/hr, leading to 1-3" of
rain. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The GOES-E IR imagery this morning shows an expanding
area of cooling cloud tops over the Mexican state of Coahuila in
response to a potent shortwave lifting northward over the
Serranias del Burro. These cooling cloud tops are associated with
intensifying convection approaching the Big Bend of Texas, and
although reflectivity over the area is sparse at this time, the
GOES-E GREMLIN radar emulation appears to match the IR imagery
quite nicely showing higher reflectivity lifting towards the
international border. At the same time, showers have begun to
develop across the Edwards Plateau in response to a plume of
increasing MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg collocated with PWs that are
analyzed by the SPC RAP to be 1.8 to 2.2 inches, or above the 99th
percentile, thanks in part to a connection to tropical moisture
associated with Tropical Storm Flossie over the Eastern Pacific
noted via the ALPW products.

Although the CAMs are struggling to resolve the ongoing activity,
and admittedly are not exceptionally aggressive with rainfall the
next few hours, the environment and evolution support heavy
rainfall through the morning. Low-level S/SE flow measured at
850mb on the VWPs at both DFX and MAF are around 20 kts, which is
helping to transport the elevated PWs northward, and this flow may
be locally accelerated downstream of the approaching shortwave.
This will help to further improve the local thermodynamic
environment, while at the same time leading to locally enhanced
convergence into the mean wind which is generally around 10 kts.
This evolution suggests that storms will increase in coverage
(with additional ascent provided via the shortwave itself) and
then move slowly/chaotically as Corfidi vectors veer strongly to
the right of the mean wind and bulk shear remains minimal.
Although the CAMs are not initializing very well, the accompanying
HREF and REFS ensemble solutions do indicate increasing coverage
of 10-30% probabilities for 1"/hr rates, leading to 1-3" of rain
with isolated higher amounts.

FFG across the region is highly variable due a wide variation in
7-day rainfall, but in some places the 3-hr FFG is as low as 1.5
inches, and 0-40cm soil moisture just north of the international
border is above the 95th percentile. This indicates that some
areas are locally vulnerable to rapid runoff, so as storms spread
northward and expand/intensify, instances of flash flooding could
result.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-_IYstZlWNU4c9cGWKyJb99spL_po8VVePxwqB5ixSNfBY6O936l-rqYjjr3WadEgDpu= sD4TYrmi5jEHtw_HnQopM34$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32390144 32240056 31970032 31319998 30569973=20
29989966 29399983 28950014 28870061 29200124=20
29440185 29150266 28960313 28870351 29080407=20
29500445 29710463 30180465 30640416 31200337=20
31350324 32100231=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031226
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-031730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0578
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
826 AM EDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Oklahoma through Southern
Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031225Z - 031730Z

Summary...An axis of showers and thunderstorms will continue to
train across eastern Oklahoma this morning. Rain rates of 1-2"/hr
are expected within this convection, leading to 2-3" of rain with
locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning shows an axis
of expanding convection oriented NW to SE across eastern Oklahoma.
This convection is blossoming along an elevated 700mb front north
of a surface boundary draped over eastern Texas, with persistent
isentropic ascent and moisture confluence occurring into the
boundary on 850-700mb winds of 15-25 kts measured via local VWPs.
Moisture is impressive across the area with PWs around 2.1 inches
(above the 90th percentile) and 700-500mb RH above 90%. With 700mb
winds gradually veering and converging into this front, moisture
confluence is maximized along this boundary, which in combination
with the accompanying lift is driving the ongoing thunderstorm
activity.

The CAMs are struggling to initialize both the breadth and
intensify of the morning thunderstorms, leading to a lower than
typical confidence for the evolution the next few hours. However,
the ARW and ARW2, as well as the recent RRFS, all at least hint at
the activity and are used to help forecast the flash flood risk.
The setup will remain favorable for continued convection as
moisture confluence into the boundary combined with the
convergence will focus development along this axis. Mean 0-6km
winds will remain light at just 5-10 kts, and with Corfidi vectors
aligned parallel to the boundary and anti-parallel to the mean
wind, an enhanced risk for backbuilding and training of cells will
continue at least until the 850-700mb inflow weakens in the next
few hours. Although the axis of heavy rainfall is expected to be
narrow and focused along this elevated boundary, near-record PWs
and a slow rise in MUCAPE will support rain rates above 1"/hr,
which through training will create stripes of 2-3" of rain with
locally higher amounts.

FFG across the region is generally elevated at 2.5-4"/3hrs due to
a lack of recent rainfall across most of the discussion area, but
0-10cm soil moisture from NASA SPoRT has not fully dried and is
still above the 90th percentile in many areas. This suggests that
infiltration capacity of the soil is somewhat limited. So, where
training can occur (to saturate the soils and then overwhelm
them), instances of flash flooding are possible, but will be most
likely across urban areas or where the most pronounced training
does occur.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8UruzX9FDABfU30rss79ilt4DJCPLL0VlXOgEr08rjgz4qYB1PfxM6m4x8RArj7Tdtan= eyqQW-P2t1NAfFhtDavuwvg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36129736 36029613 35629516 35019440 34119356=20
33669337 33099367 33019447 33239507 33269527=20
33859660 34339764 34879814 35689808=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031631
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-032230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0579
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1231 PM EDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...Vicinity of the Red River Valley of the South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031630Z - 032230Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will develop along a decaying
frontal boundary and train through the afternoon. Rainfall rates
may pulse up above 2"/hr at times, leading to 1-2" of rainfall
with locally higher amounts above 3". Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic late this morning shows a
rapid uptick in convection developing along a decaying stationary
front aligned near the Red River Valley of the South. Recent radar
estimated rain rates from KTLX and KFWS have been as high as
1.5"/hr within fresh convection, with storm motions generally of
to the north at 10 kts.

The environment is becoming increasingly favorable for heavy rain
containing convection, with a ribbon of MLCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg
overlapping PWs as high as 2 inches, which is well above the 90th
percentile for the date, and a daily max at KOUN according to the
SPC sounding climatology. Modest low-level S/SW winds measured via
VWPs at 10-20 kts lifting into the decaying front are resulting in
increasing isentropic ascent, which is acting together with a weak
impulse moving into North Texas and broadly diffluent 300mb flow
to provide deep layer ascent. This lift occurring into these
favorable thermodynamics will continue to support increasing
coverage and intensity of thunderstorms through the aftn.

The high-res CAMs are again struggling to handle the ongoing
activity, although the ensembles, both HREF and REFS, appear to be
usable. These ensembles both suggest that coverage of 1"/hr (and
2"/hr) neighborhood rain rate probabilities will rapidly rise
during the next few hours in a NW to SE oriented axis in the
vicinity of the decaying front. With ascent remaining in place and thermodynamics becoming increasingly robust later today (SBCAPE
approaching 2000 J/kg), thunderstorms should remain supported and
intensify. This is suggested by HREF and REFS probabilities for
2"/hr rates reaching 25-35%, coincident with HRRR 15-min rainfall
exceeding 0.75" at times (brief 3"/hr rates). Although the models
disagree on where the heaviest rain will occur, the maximum
convergence just north of the boundary should be favored, which is
also where Corfidi vectors are aligned most obliquely right of the
mean flow to suggest enhanced training from NW to SE as the line
forms and advects slowly northward.

0-10cm RSM from NASA SPoRT is generally around 50% south of the
Red River, but as much as 80% to the north, suggesting that OK is
more vulnerable than TX today. This is also where the, albeit
modest, FFG exceedance probabilities exist. While that area may be
most susceptible today, any place that receives training of these
more intense rain rates could experience instances of flash
flooding through the aftn.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5GFA3EAGPZhTpFR1EoH9QTxDjMZdOKy_UjflhKJgW57Q7WAUshYrX3xmnGCtn67JLU2a= VQdm_O_Js4MCmcNoAIIVpPw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35959870 35539757 34169560 33269406 33179395=20
32699348 32269335 31989358 31839419 32089574=20
32769774 33449901 34419950 35509952=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031722
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-032315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0580
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
121 PM EDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...West Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 031719Z - 032315Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand
downstream of twin shortwaves moving northward across West Texas.
Rainfall rates in excess of 2"/hr are possible at times, leading
to rainfall of 2-3" with locally as much as 5". Flash flooding is
possible.

Discussion...The GOES-E WV imagery this afternoon indicates dual
shortwaves moving northward across West Texas. The first is
associated with an MCV which is remnant from an impressive MCS
that lifted out of Coahuila, Mexico earlier this morning, while a
secondary shortwave is moving over the southern Permian Basin.
Both of these impulses are contributing impressive ascent into
robust thermodynamics to support heavy rainfall rates. These
thermodynamics are characterized by PWs that are above the 95th
percentile within the 700-500mb and 500-300mb layer according to
CIRA, overlapped with MLCAPE that is slowly climbing towards 1000
J/kg according to the SPC RAP analysis. Rainfall rates within
ongoing convection have been estimated above 1.5"/hr according to
KMAF WSR-88D, and morning rainfall today has already been measured
at 2-4" in some areas via MRMS and local mesonet observations.

Flash flooding is currently ongoing across the region, and the
slow poleward advance of these shortwaves will maintain or
increase flash flooding potential through the afternoon. These
shortwaves are going to continue to move northward as the region
remains pinched between a trough approaching from the west and a
ridge positioned to the east. Not only will this push these
shortwaves northward to continue lift, but will also draw more
impressive thermodynamics northward to support heavy rainfall.
Although CAMs are struggling to resolve current activity, both the
REFS and HREF neighborhood probabilities for 2"/hr rates rise to
20-40%, while the HRRR 15-min rainfall accumulations reach as much
as 0.75", indicating at least brief 3"/hr rates. With mean 0-6km
winds remaining light from the S/SW at 5-10 kts, and Corfidi
vectors pointing back into the better moisture (anti-parallel to
the mean wind), this will support short term training of these
rates leading to rainfall of 2-3" with locally higher amounts
approaching 5" possible.

In addition to the rain which has already occurred this morning,
0-10cm RSM from NASA SPoRT is above the 75th percentile across
much of the area, suggesting the soils are vulnerable to rapid
runoff. This is additionally reflected by 3-hr FFG that is as low
as 1.5"/3hrs. This indicates that any of these more intense rain
rates, especially during periods of training, could overwhelm the
soils leading to instances of flash flooding.

Weiss/Shieh

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9P4sEI54wAfK3VVdXuBp82UxQYwuVt-dA9PTn7hIBz0x_igfg8AGrq5SrmUE264E_13v= id1BRKd9X0JqEPx3Hy5EN8Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EWX...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34630194 34490144 34310114 33930073 33680050=20
33100026 32540024 32020039 31480056 31310063=20
30890081 30350084 30020105 29630161 29710236=20
29850336 29680384 30080420 30780433 31270424=20
31440391 31440347 31680308 31860292 31970292=20
31980291 32630323 33460317 34370301 34500256=20
34580250=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031901
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-040100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0581
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 PM EDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...New Mexico & West Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031900Z - 040100Z

SUMMARY...Broad upper-level troughing and an unstable air-mass
coupled with anomalous moisture and saturated soils could result
in additional areas of flash flooding today, especially near burn
scars.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough approaching from Arizona will
place a more efficient diffluent flow over much of New Mexico and
as far south as West Texas. GOES-19 visible satellite imagery and
GLM show a growing field of thunderstorms along the Southern
Rockies that continue to strengthen. Visible satellite shows this
area has generally been free of thick low-mid level clouds,
allowing for surface-based heating to occur relatively unimpeded.
RAP mesoanalysis depicts as much as 1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE in place
over eastern NM with 17Z RAP guidance showing anywhere from
1,000-2,000 J/kg later this afternoon. The region continues to
sport highly anomalous moisture aloft with PWATs over the Southern
Rockies and Rio Grande Valley generally between 1.0-1.25", while
the High Plains of eastern New Mexico are more commonly between
1.5-1.75". Regardless of the exact numbers, all these PWATs are
comfortably above the 90th climatological percentile per ECMWF ENS
guidance and even topping the 99th climatological percentile in
southeast New Mexico.

The approaching upper-level trough, copious amounts of moisture,
and modest instability should allow for the thunderstorm threat to
linger into the early evening hours. As the upper trough
approaches, SWrly 850-300mb mean winds should accelerate to >15
kts, which while this does help to keep storms moving along, this
can also further act as a trigger for additional storms or
back-building storms along windward-facing slopes. Storms along
the Sangre De Cristo and Sacramentos could also move northeast
into eastern New Mexico where any outflows emanating off the
terrain or from thunderstorms over western Texas could aid in the
development of thunderstorms producing >1.5"/hr rainfall rates.
NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-40cm soil moisture percentiles still suggest
soils of that depth remains quite saturated, or to the tune of
80-95%. Given the favorable atmospheric parameters and sensitive
soils, there is the potential for widely scattered thunderstorms
to pose a flash flood threat. Burn scars and rugged terrain, as
well as low-lying areas that drain poorly are most at-risk through
this evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4OOKcQ77BlZYaUHPHvvztLf78W-VuVtVucnNFgSL8wQ7Tlhaog1rloaRxVcWrJA6Rvy8= 6Ul2j77iCK4ZKDOrpeLnaDk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36850564 36730511 36410479 36070451 35400405=20
34560351 33720326 32840317 32170336 31250425=20
30980511 30970555 31270612 31680679 31800713=20
31860746 31980787 32300823 32640823 33060812=20
33650803 34140818 34800815 35140796 35540754=20
35700743 36030666 36280640 36620594=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032302
FFGMPD
TXZ000-040500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0582
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
702 PM EDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...Texas Hill Country

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 032300Z - 040500Z

SUMMARY...Concerning trends for back-building and training
thunderstorms over the Texas Hill Country this evening that could
produce >3"/hr max rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...The remnant mid-level circulation associated with
Barry (also classified as an MCV on the graphic) is over western
Texas and slowly approaching the Texas Hill Country this evening.
Barry's remnant circulation has a dearth of atmospheric moisture
at its disposal with PWs ranging anywhere from 2.2-2.5". ECMWF ENS
percentiles show these PWs above the 99th climatological
percentile, as are the mean specific humidity (g/kg) values at
both the 850mb and 500mb height levels. The atmosphere is also
quite unstable with MUCAPE generally between 2,000-3,000 J/kg. As
night falls, the low-level jet (LLJ) will gradually accelerate out
of South Texas and intersect the Hill Country in a manner that
supports topographically-forced ascent. This low-level jet is also
part of a fairly strong southerly IVT for early July as the ECMWF
ENS percentiles depict >500 kg/m/s values (above the 97.5
climatological percentile) over the Hill Country between 00-06Z.
The impressive moisture advection is making for some remarkably
saturated RAP soundings where low-mid level RH values are >90% and
warm cloud layers are 15,000ft deep in many cases.

The concern with the MCV and remnant 500-700mb trough is that it
is paired with a persistent LLJ that looks to be steadfast over
the region well into the overnight hours. While there is not a ton
of vertical wind shear, noticeable veering in the sfc-3km layer
ensues as the LLJ strengthens this evening (SErly sfc winds, SWrly
3km winds). This could provide cells with the ability to be
somewhat self-sustaining and organized this evening. The other
concern is for outflows associated with a growing cold pool from
northerly convection to propagate south and be oriented in a way
where the southerly LLJ intersects the outflows in a perpendicular
fashion. The atmospheric parameters are supportive of not just the
potential for >3"/hr maximum rainfall rates, but for back-building
and training thunderstorms over the Hill Country.

The I-35 corridor on west is most at-risk for flash flooding
tonight. 1-hr FFGs are generally between 1.5-2.0" in portions of
the Hill Country, which given the prolific rainfall potential
these storms may contain, would have little problem causing flash
flooding. For areas where back-building and training storms do
occur, locally considerable flash flooding this evening is
possible.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4HTUq9oReOifkEErBvNsVGeCd3qm4klwIk9b93F5tGu1pPpgmBj3Iz97euj4PO3RdvLj= iVUhkXutStPUlgcLqTYvcEM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33049861 32029772 30809750 29669772 29079855=20
29169957 29860011 30700023 31420008 32959969=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032311
FFGMPD
TXZ000-040500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0582
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
710 PM EDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...Texas Hill Country

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 032300Z - 040500Z

SUMMARY...Concerning trends for back-building and training
thunderstorms over the Texas Hill Country this evening that could
produce >3"/hr max rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...The remnant mid-level circulation associated with
Barry (also classified as an MCV on the graphic) is over western
Texas and slowly approaching the Texas Hill Country this evening.
Barry's remnant circulation has an abundance of atmospheric
moisture at its disposal with PWs ranging anywhere from 2.2-2.5".
ECMWF ENS percentiles show these PWs above the 99th climatological
percentile, as are the mean specific humidity (g/kg) values at
both the 850mb and 500mb height levels. The atmosphere is also
quite unstable with MUCAPE generally between 2,000-3,000 J/kg. As
night falls, the low-level jet (LLJ) will gradually accelerate out
of South Texas and intersect the Hill Country in a manner that
supports topographically-forced ascent. This low-level jet is also
part of a fairly strong southerly IVT for early July as the ECMWF
ENS percentiles depict >500 kg/m/s values (above the 97.5
climatological percentile) over the Hill Country between 00-06Z.
The impressive moisture advection is making for some remarkably
saturated RAP soundings where low-mid level RH values are >90% and
warm cloud layers are 15,000ft deep in many cases.

The concern with the MCV and remnant 500-700mb trough is that it
is paired with a persistent LLJ that looks to be steadfast over
the region well into the overnight hours. While there is not a ton
of vertical wind shear, noticeable veering in the sfc-3km layer
ensues as the LLJ strengthens this evening (SErly sfc winds, SWrly
3km winds). This could provide cells with the ability to be
somewhat self-sustaining and organized this evening. The other
concern is for outflows associated with a growing cold pool from
northerly convection to propagate south and be oriented in a way
where the southerly LLJ intersects the outflows in a perpendicular
fashion. The atmospheric parameters are supportive of not just the
potential for >3"/hr maximum rainfall rates, but for back-building
and training thunderstorms over the Hill Country.

The I-35 corridor on west is most at-risk for flash flooding
tonight. 1-hr FFGs are generally between 1.5-2.0" in portions of
the Hill Country, which given the prolific rainfall potential
these storms may contain, would have little problem causing flash
flooding. For areas where back-building and training storms do
occur, locally considerable flash flooding this evening is
possible.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_yHIZeDGIDTRNYMDiGDn4Dfx7JVS2EEPIVonaO5RBBfPlBWbRc41SBIl3K9cGxGu6DMy= Czqt1QNOaq1-y-rSobAu9s0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33049861 32029772 30809750 29669772 29079855=20
29169957 29860011 30700023 31420008 32959969=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040405
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-040900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0583
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1205 AM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...western to southern WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 040404Z - 040900Z

SUMMARY...Training of thunderstorms over western to southern WI
will likely produce a few areas of flash flooding through 09Z with
hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, though localized hourly rates
near 3 inches in an hour will be possible. Some 3 to 5 inch totals
may result.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 0345Z showed a NW to SE axis of
thunderstorms extending along/north of a slow moving warm front
which extended from just north of MSP to just south of MKE at 03Z.
The environment over the region contained 2000 to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE
and PWs of 1.5 to 1.8 inches, sampled well by the 00Z MPX
sounding. Southwesterly 850 mb winds of 20-25 kt were observed via
VAD wind plots from KMPX and KARX, overrunning the frontal
boundary with mean steering flow oriented parallel to the front, a
favorable setup for training. In addition, a remnant MCV near the
central MN/WI border appears to be contributing to lift across the
region.

Warm advection driven thunderstorms are likely to continue across
WI over the next few hours with southwesterly winds at 850 mb
remaining a similar magnitude overnight, but with some slow
advancement of the front toward the northeast expected. Congealing
of thunderstorms may promote some southward motions toward
southern WI, but upstream redevelopment will remain possible with
continued potential for training from NW to SE and hourly rainfall
likely to be in the 1 to 2 inch range, although one cannot rule
out locally higher rates of 2 to 3 inches in an hour. Flash flood
guidance of largely 2 to 3 inches in 3 hours across the region
should be exceeded in a few locations, resulting in a likely flash
flood threat over the next 3-5 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9arsfwhKDLsedHSW03BQldKlP-9emyfcpOJrDAXgM2y7JlKP2fA3bZCTxixiW59y5JEc= WITwNCa8GMOgnK-NJUDQATY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...GRB...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46279187 45479087 44979031 44188916 43388843=20
42658862 42578930 43149036 43979162 44649253=20
45269293 46139273=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040527
FFGMPD
TXZ000-041030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0584
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
126 AM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 040525Z - 041030Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding will be likely across central TX
overnight with very heavy rainfall expected. Hourly rainfall in
excess of 2 to 3 inches seems reasonable given the environment and
localized 6-hr totals over 6 inches will be possible. Some flash
flood impacts could be significant, especially considering
sensitive terrain over portions of the region.

Discussion...05Z regional radar mosaic over central TX showed an
ongoing area of thunderstorms with a few areas of very efficient
rainfall resulting from embedded training. As of 05Z, some of the
heaviest hourly rainfall (2 to 3 inches per MRMS) was occurring
over Bandera and San Saba counties. Another area of training was
found just southeast of San Angelo along US 87, tied to a remnant
MCV circulation (related to the remains of Barry's mid-level
circulation), located between SJT and JCT and embedded within a
broader mid-level trough that extended NNW into eastern CO. The
region was located within an extremely moist environment
containing 2.0 to 2.5 inches of PW with contributions from the
Gulf of America and tropical east Pacific clearly evident on
layered PW imagery.

Low level southerly winds sampled by area VAD wind plots at 850 mb
were 20-30 kt and these winds are expected to maintain through the
overnight with some subtle strengthening possible over the next
couple of hours. The upper trough and remnant mid-level
circulation over central TX is expected to slowly advance east
while low level convergence continues to focus from the TX Hill
Country, northward to the I-20 corridor. Terrain enhancement into
the Hill Country and low level convergence at the leading edge of
the stronger low level flow will set up favorably with the mean
steering flow from the southwest to support areas of training. The
tropical airmass will be capable of 2 to 3+ inches of rain in an
hour and localized totals over 6 inches in a 6 hour period may
also occur. These areas of heavy rainfall are expected to result
in a few areas of flash flooding through the overnight, some of
which may become locally significant.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9P_qb2_ryj1wccwMzPDr1Zq2h4Gb7zLZSphL8VSaWFJb8OVMPXMv-hHD3rBxSNm05SmV= JmrFmljjCq3Nn-HrP9p6hcU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33139936 32779820 31759771 30119833 29209929=20
29330030 29950076 31250063 32340033=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041028
FFGMPD
TXZ000-041445-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0585
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
627 AM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 041025Z - 041445Z

Summary...Areas of high Impact flash flooding will continue for at
least another 3-5 hour across portions of central TX. Slow to
nearly stationary net movement of heavy rain cores will maintain a
threat for hourly rainfall in excess of 3 inches in a couple of
locations. Considerable to catastrophic flash flood impacts can
continue to be expected.

Discussion...10Z radar imagery over central TX showed a cluster of
slow moving thunderstorms that extended from near San Angelo into
southern portions of the Hill Country. Embedded cells within the
cluster has exhibited near stationary movement with gauge reports
of 13+ inches about 7 miles northwest of San Angelo and 11+ inches
in Kerr County since 04Z. A long-lived embedded circulation
remained just east of San Angelo but there has been some
disruption over the past 30-60 minutes to the heavy rain cores
near San Angelo and over Kerr County. The environment remained
highly conducive to locally extreme rainfall with high freezing
levels of 15-16 kft AGL, PWs of 2.0 to 2.5 inches and up to 1000
J/kg MLCAPE via 10Z SPC mesoanalysis and RAP analysis data.

Low level convergence in the vicinity of the slow moving
circulation near San Angelo is expected to remain a focus for
localized heavy rainfall rates over the next few hours with the
axis of heaviest rainfall shifting a bit south and east in the
short term. Farther south, newer/smaller cells feeding into the
main complex over the Edwards Plateau are indicative of the
continued convergence across the region with slow net movement of
rainfall cores and MRMS-derived rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches in an
hour for a few locations in central TX. The threat for continued
higher end flash flooding is expected to remain relatively focused
across central TX over the next 3-5 hours at which point movement
of the mesoscale circulation and forecast weakening of the low
level winds into the Edwards Plateau may begin to decrease or at
least shift the heavy rain threat a bit toward the north and east.
However, through the remainder of the morning, with area creeks
and rivers rapidly rising, a very dangerous situation remains for
anybody within the highlighted MPD area. Considerable to locally
catastrophic impacts from flash flooding are likely to continue.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6mBkWL-35HTmwYhgglecFDGQvkRc86fThjGgHRAGza7qVHrIlCknqaFAckCEhFflLZp5= MyG_GzE0605UI22DQQC0eks$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32389983 32189901 31859845 31409817 30429813=20
29799848 29239902 29159990 29490039 30230076=20
31430114 31950102 32300071=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041433
FFGMPD
TXZ000-042000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0586
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1033 AM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...Hill Country and Edwards Plateau of south-central
Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 041430Z - 042000Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving MCC continues to compound significant flash
flooding with some areal expansion expected over next few hours.=20
WPC upgrade to Moderate Risk.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts the fairly symmetric MCC
remains ideally within anticyclonic wedge; while not very strong
outflow is sufficient with impressive transverse banding features
along much of the northern hemisphere of the circulation and with
the persistent strong updrafts/latent heat release the MCV
continues to remain strong near the McCulloch/Saba/Mason county
intersection. Regional RADAR mosaic denotes this with impressive
arched convective band along the effective cold front within the
western quadrant of the MCC from Mason to Sutton county and VWP
shows solid warm advective profile off the Rio Grande confluent
across central South Texas further expanding effective warm
frontal banding like features along and downstream to the SE of
the MCV. Upstream well of continued very moist and unstable air
with TPW values over 2.25" and MLCAPE gradient of 1000-2000 J/kg
along the southwest to southern side of the circulation. This
will support cells capable of 2-3"/hr

As the MCV wobbles and confluence increases into the WAA, the band
will once again shift across the Guadalupe River Valley likely to
induce another wave of flash flooding conditions. While Hi-Res
CAMs continue to suggest a weakening phase over the next few
hours, the upstream inflow and potential for upstream development
along the WAA regime may result in relatively with south-southwest
propagation equal/stronger than 10-15kt inflow resulting in
stationary cells with spots of additional 4-6" possible. As such
significant to catastrophic flash flooding is likely to continue
with potential to expand along the southern periphery of the MCC.=20


Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-c199t51wM3K-1cTLCvw_4TQOsZo7kwZCvK34MKu9-9jlFG6cVXNwSV5NOlXaYxUawsz= 3r0rGDQAwPKKcjAE8bjYTx8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31449905 30979848 30689768 29959762 29429807=20
29189869 29099927 29310003 29940063 30470084=20
30860075 31040040 31299992 31429983=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041902
FFGMPD
TXZ000-050000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0587
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...Texas Triangle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041900Z - 050000Z

SUMMARY...Unstable air downstream of persistent MCC will have=20
solid moisture flux allowing for intense localized 2-3"/hr rates
and possible flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...RADAR mosaic shows mature MCV has stalled in the
vicinity of San Saba/Mills county but is also starting to stretch
southwest to northeast. Dense central dense mid to upper-level
cloud cover has resulted in a strong differential heating boundary
along the NE to eastern side of the canopy with MLCAPEs building
over 2000 J/kg (with greater values within the confluent boundary
along the distant eastern side toward Houston/Galveston Bay.=20
However, VWP shows solid 20-30kt weakly veered southerly flow
across the Heart of Texas within the core of enhanced deep layer
moisture with total PWats of 2.25" nearing 2.5". Currently, the
DPVA from the inner core of the MCV shifting northeast though the
mid-level elongation has started to break out stronger
thunderstorms along that differential heating boundary.

The flux convergence will support highly efficient rainfall
production with 2-3"/hr rates. However, deep layer flow and
southeastward inflow will support eastward propagation as cells
move in the north to northeast steering flow. This steering flow
is semi-confluent to suggest some merging/training but the
propagation vectors of 15kts to the southeast, may reduce
prolonged duration. Still spots of 2-4" are probable and given
FFG values are higher/less compromised to the east; incidents of
flash flooding are considered possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!84PmK_LEHNWLIjs_ofhsY-zXi7huL0gRdGGdYG-UBiu_ma1N5u4EpdgbtHyOZanSa7KU= A4r0HGTg1YcsgEQJJ4D8NsY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32479764 32429670 32169626 31699591 31079582=20
30519613 30059697 30029792 30509806 31379830=20
31949849=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041911
FFGMPD
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-050110-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0588
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Dakotas & Northern Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041910Z - 050110Z

SUMMARY...Blossoming clusters of thunderstorms to produce >2"/hr
rainfall rates poses a threat for potential flash flooding this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A potent 500mb trough approaching from the northern
High Plains is working in tandem with the diffluent right-entrance
region of a strengthening 250mb jet streak over the Red River of
the North to provide a favorable synoptic-scale environment for
upscale-growth of thunderstorms. A warm front has been lifting
north through northern Minnesota today and has already triggered
several intense thunderstorms close to the International Border.
Meanwhile, thunderstorms have formed along a surface trough in the
heart of the Dakotas that are tracking northeastward into a more
unstable environment. Dew points are in the low 70s within the
highlighted region with MLCAPE forecast by the RAP to surpass
3,000 J/kg and PWATs above 2.0". The PWATs are likely to be above
the 99.5 climatological percentile per ECMWF ENS guidance, and
warm cloud layers are exceptionally deep for the region. The ECMWF
ENS guidance also shows a >750 kg/m/s IVT over eastern South
Dakota that is aimed at northern Minnesota this evening, favoring
that area for the strongest moisture advection. By 00Z this
evening, RAP soundings for International Falls, MN show a melting
level near 15,000ft, which is nearly 6,000ft deeper than the 90th
percentile (~9,000ft) in the SPC sounding climatology. Lastly,
these storms will have modest vertical wind shear to keep these
storms organized, with higher storm relative helicity values
closer to the warm front over northern Minnesota.

These factors all support the potential for organized clusters of
storms that can produce exceptional rainfall rates that give
credence to a flash flood threat through this evening. As the
storms from the Dakotas approach into the more unstable and
sheared environment, storms over the Dakotas could merge with
developing storms along the surface trough. This should eventually
spawn a larger cold pool and become a more organized MCS this
evening. Rainfall totals ranging between 2-4" are anticipated from
eastern North Dakota and northern South Dakota on east to northern
Minnesota this afternoon. Areas long the Red River on east into
northern Minnesota have the better odds for localized amounts
topping 5" where they are more ideally placed closer to the warm
front and where the more persistent area of 850mb theta-e
advection is present. 1-hr FFGs are lowest along the Red River and
along the Minnesota's International Border with FFGs as low as
1.5" in some cases, although most areas along the Red River are as
low as 1.5" for 3-hr FFGs as well. Given these factors, flash
flooding is possible in impacted areas. Given it is the Fourth of
July, those enjoying outdoor festivities should be sure to have a
means of receiving any warnings issued this afternoon and evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_BIY8FshRA_V2vuu0erG8o4Dx_AbKPzT8M1CFxgflo9ogbmIoCMaq7CkfCdxLu-zxBJP= T2XosW9OgJeQpInVfCsFMpw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...DLH...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49099548 48989467 48739403 48759326 48469242=20
47949270 47289413 46499574 45729688 45289728=20
44869797 44599893 44519977 44650032 44910055=20
45420052 46000022 47149905 47789833 48209769=20
48719696 48949645=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 042012
FFGMPD
TXZ000-050030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0589
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
411 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...Texas Hill Country

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 042010Z - 050030Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding looks to continue into the afternoon in
parts of the Hill Country as the MCV slowly moves north and east.
An additional 1-4" of rainfall is possible over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...The MCV responsible for the destructive and fatal
flash flooding event in the Hill Country continues to inch its way
north and east this afternoon. The region remains mired in a
tropical air-mass that sports anywhere from 2.2-2.5" PWATs and
modest southerly 850mb theta-e advection continues to be funneled
out ahead of the MCV, wrapping around its western flank and into
Mason and Llano counties. While instability has decreased, there
remains a subtle 500-850mb mean troughing signal overhead. When
combined with MUCAPE values of 250-500 J/kg (per RAP
mesoanalysis), highly saturated soundings, deep warm cloud layers
(RAP soundings suggest up to 16,000ft), and no capping present,
the MCV will still be capable of triggering additional storms
around the western and southern flank of the MCV. Doppler Radar
shows thunderstorms over Mason County continue to produce
torrential downpours with MRMS 15-minute estimates approaching
0.5-1.0". While storms should gradually diminish this evening, the exceptionally sensitive soils will make any additional rainfall
unwelcome and likely result in additional flash flooding through
the remainder of the afternoon.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7sK1_Bo2P9MtB-01CKMiYg8FBtDUUG61a5Pc7B4uZqcWclScLuvXzXHeJ3J0ucal2KzG= Idx8BRjomY_yMo0MRjnIe1U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31639869 31369834 31339832 31069821 30759809=20
30479802 30229808 30119855 30059900 30149935=20
30509966 30909997 31279995 31529963 31619916=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 042235
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-050400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0590
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
634 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska...Southeast South Dakota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042233Z - 050400Z

SUMMARY...Widespread thunderstorms containing 1.5-2.0"/hr rainfall
rates may produce flash flooding this afternoon and evening,
especially in low-lying poor drainage areas and in more urbanized
communities.

DISCUSSION...GOES-19 satellite imagery and Doppler Radar show no
shortage of thunderstorms traversing central Nebraska this
afternoon. Storms are developing as far south as central Kansas as
an integrated vapor transport (IVT) topping 700 kg/m/s advects a
plentiful source of moisture northward. Storms are gradually
moving north and east into eastern Nebraska and southeast South
Dakota where RAP forecasts depict PWs between 1.75-2.0" and MLCAPE
between 1,000-2,000 J/kg with little to no capping present.
Focusing on the PWs, these PWs are topping the 99.5th
climatological percentile per NAEFS. Plus, RAP soundings within
the highlighted region sport low-mid level RH values averaging 90%
and warm cloud layers over 14,000ft deep, supporting warm rain
processes within these storms. There is also sufficient vertical
wind shear to sustain these segments of thunderstorms for several
more hours as they continue their northeast heading.

Much of the highlighted region is either in D0-D2 drought
conditions, so for most areas, this rainfall will be largely
beneficial. However, it is the concern for back-building
thunderstorms as the southerly IVT remains healthy into the
overnight hours to potentially allow for training, moisture-loaded thunderstorms in some cases. Flash flooding is possible this
afternoon and evening, especially in low-lying spots that drain
poorly and in communities with a greater concentration of
hydrophobic surfaces.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-k4kdhtUlFFn39oxR8A-B7qKECOntLRvTsUe729osRk318BM1pT_c57saz4JqPjT77R3= QtGVWSrJjA5mq1k3IhLPucg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...GLD...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 44499787 44469729 44279681 43929640 43639635=20
43079649 42399677 41669714 41069746 40639786=20
40249833 39669905 39479942 39320020 39440054=20
39900083 40540082 41120046 41749982 42299936=20
42869901 43409876 43889852 44379810=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 050114
FFGMPD
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-050630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0591
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
914 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...Northern Minnesota...Eastern South Dakota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050115Z - 050630Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms containing up to 2"/hr rainfall rates
could result in additional areas of flash flooding this evening.

DISCUSSION...A congealing line of thunderstorms stretching from
just west of the Minnesota Arrowhead to as far south and west as
eastern South Dakota continues to track east. The heaviest
rainfall is occurring along and just south of a warm front that is
oriented parallel to the MN/Canada border. Meanwhile, outflow
boundaries out ahead of the approaching line of storms is helping
to force air parcels vertically while as much as 35-45kts of
effective bulk shear helps to sustain these thunderstorms
updrafts. The environment just west of the Arrowhead on south into
central MN remains unstable with as much as 1,000-2,000 J/kg at
these storms disposal. Most notably, the atmospheric moisture
content remains highly anomalous with the RAP showing a plume of
2" PWATs aloft thanks to a >750 kg/m/s IVT directing anomalous
moisture into the region via the Southern Plains.

Storms should generally remain transient on the southern periphery
of the highlighted area, but training thunderstorms across
northern MN are possible as storms from eastern SD head northeast
over the next few hours. Expect another 1-2" of rainfall within
the highlighted region tonight with localized amounts potentially
approaching 4" where the heaviest set of training convection takes
shape. The flash flooding persists this Fourth of July night in
northern Minnesota with lower-lying, poor drainage areas most
at-risk. Any instances of ponding or flash flooding will become
increasingly harder to identify on roadways after sunset.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8_DUosAi7kIaw7tU7xtPOxrUoDOrE7_Be2RKQDSBjjBYATpsHEKJvv6Lw_ngIX7no-hK= zBDpBXPxqZ1qqHKbOyP8H_w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...DLH...FGF...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48559265 48399174 48119135 47649168 47159253=20
47019271 46099393 45519449 44869550 44699674=20
44699745 45099755 45459737 46219668 46739597=20
47389505 48079399 48429331=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 050538
FFGMPD
TXZ000-050935-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0592
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
138 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Areas affected...central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 050537Z - 050935Z

SUMMARY...Localized heavy rainfall will be likely across portions
of central TX over the next 2-4 hours. Flash flooding will result
from rainfall rates in excess of 3 in/hr at times, especially if
heavy rain cores can edge eastward toward Austin/Round Rock and
the I-35 corridor.

DISCUSSION...0510Z radar imagery from KGRK showed a slow moving
thunderstorm in western Travis County with MRMS-derived hourly
rainfall of 4 to 5 inches and at least one gauge report from LCRA
of 4.98 inches per 60 minutes ending 0510Z near Largo Vista. This
cell appeared to be located just north of a remaining mesoscale
circulation just on the cool side of a remnant rain-cooled
boundary from Friday's rainfall combined with a trough/wind shift
axis that extended southwest to the Rio Grande across Webb County.
SPC mesoanalysis and 04Z RAP data valid at 05Z showed a stable
airmass across the Hill Country and northern TX while MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg resided along and southeast of I-35 from Austin
southward. 00Z soundings from DRT, FWD and CRP showed PW values at
or above the 90th percentile and tropical moisture was still in
place in the vicinity of an elongated low-mid level low which was
located over central TX.

S to SSE 850 mb winds of 10-20 kt are expected to continue
overnight with advection of weak instability back toward the
northwest and focused convergence near the remnant mesoscale
vortex. Weak deeper mean layer winds of 10 kt or less will favor
slow to nearly stationary movement of heavy rainfall with hourly
rainfall exceeding 3 inches at times. The duration of the core of
heaviest rainfall is uncertain, and it may begin to drift to the
northwest as the instability gradient pushes northwest over the
next couple of hours. However, present trends indicate near
stationary net movement with continued very high rainfall rates
continuing in the vicinity of western Travis/Williamson and
eastern Burnet counties.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!87mFxu6nHHQCCpP1tt7fYLNAnwSHTk2ekXwo0vui6NRuvm_8Sj-CylFvs40E7cMlMgBC= QBpXI4z5yijlSGBZdZW46j0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31769776 31619741 31219713 30789731 30409750=20
30069771 30039796 30249830 30689845 31489825=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

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