ACUS11 KWNS 200042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200042=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-200215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0892
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Areas affected...Parts of north-central Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 295...

Valid 200042Z - 200215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 295 continues.

SUMMARY...Risk of large hail and severe wind gusts continues, with
embedded tornadoes also possible. A local time extension of Tornado
Watch 295 may be needed, depending on storm evolution over the next
hour.

DISCUSSION...At the tail-end of a continuous convective line
extending from southeast/south-central OK into north-central TX, a
couple embedded supercells are impinging on an air mass
characterized by 3200 J/kg MLCAPE (sampled by FWD 00Z sounding) and
300 m2/s2 0-1km SRH (per FWS VWP). With mostly line-parallel
deep-layer shear, a mostly linear mode with embedded supercells
should continue. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main
concerns, though the aforementioned streamwise vorticity amid any
deep/embedded rotating cores will still support a tornado risk for a
couple more hours. A local time extension of Tornado Watch 295 may
be needed -- depending on storm evolution over the next hour.

..Weinman.. 05/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5EmhT1th4P8zAZy265yoSVuELpZ26lAKoTDw31OvhAQHrYBABq9CIWLizLlxqs2s83dVRoY4C= aLSpZNVK2VMJSlN3ZA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33449765 33849731 34149653 34109607 33869589 33549598
33149683 33099732 33219765 33449765=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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