ACUS11 KWNS 200036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200036=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-200300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0891
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Missouri...Far Western Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 200036Z - 200300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across parts of
central Missouri, and will likely affect eastern Missouri and far
western Illinois later this evening/overnight. New watch issuance
will be needed.

DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery currently shows a QLCS across far
northwest Arkansas and far eastern Oklahoma. Further north into
western Missouri, isolated severe storms are embedded in a somewhat
large area of rain. Ahead of this complex, the RAP has MLCAPE in the
1500 to 2000 J/kg eastward to the Mississippi River. This airmass,
along with warm advection and large-scale ascent associated with a
shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery, will support
continued convective development over the next few hours. The latest
RAP analysis has a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet over eastern
Oklahoma. Short-term model forecasts gradually strengthen the
low-level jet, and move it northeastward into the Ozarks. As a
result, low-level shear will increase and become favorable for
tornadoes, associated with embedded supercells or rotating elements
within the QLCS. Large hail and wind damage will also be possible.
The greatest potential for gusts above 70 mph will be with the
faster-moving short bowing line segments.

..Broyles/Gleason.. 05/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6ncrYjbncGDZW16zj0n8Ov9OOUa3k-G7mrxi381kMaz5MgmvG-VWN-TnPoDALCitQWLibsJuV= jWoL8H2L5By6cHNG4c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 36708946 37538941 38428971 39199024 39419095 39419217
39229264 38909285 38089280 36959247 36599158 36549048
36708946=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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