ACUS11 KWNS 192331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192330=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-200100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0889
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Areas affected...Parts of east-central Oklahoma into far
west-central Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 292...

Valid 192330Z - 200100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 292 continues.

SUMMARY...Favorable corridor for continuation of strong/intense
tornadoes continues across east-central Oklahoma into west-central
Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...A couple intense supercell clusters are tracking east-northeastward across east-central Oklahoma -- one of which has
a history of producing tornadoes (likely strong/intense). These
storms are moving into the core of the low-level jet -- where the
SRX VWP is sampling around 260 m2/s2 0-500m SRH. Given this very
favorable streamwise vorticity, established supercell clusters, and
strong surface-based instability, the risk of strong to intense
tornadoes should continue for the next few hours.

..Weinman.. 05/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8l0_WrnpcxVI7nZyiOdadyOR2tbBlbTz6w7GyTsfs72TTVPeCIHc9L0WD9giZcH8y7mFnQXMg= WWjNt-m9zH9iUWoGvw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...

LAT...LON 34869546 35499533 35819500 35889459 35809425 35549414
35149425 34639486 34639530 34869546=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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