ACUS11 KWNS 192308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192308=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-200115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0887
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0608 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska...Southwest Iowa

Concerning...Tornado Watch 293...

Valid 192308Z - 200115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 293 continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue over the next few hours
across parts of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Tornadoes,
large hail and wind damage will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery shows line of
severe storms located to the west of Omaha, with an intense
supercell at the northern end. Another intense supercell is located
in far southeast Nebraska. The storms are located along and just to
the east of an axis moderate instability, where MLCAPE is in the
2000 to 3000 J/kg range. At the surface, dewpoints are in the lower
to mid 60s F, and surface winds are backed to the east-southeast
along a pronouced warm front. This is evident on the Omaha WSR-88D
VWP, which has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 260 m2/s2. This
will be favorable for a tornado threat over the next couple of
hours. In addition, the RAP has 700-500 mb lapse rates of between
7.5 and 8 C/km, which will also be favorable for large hail. The
more intense cores could produce hail greater than 2 inches in
diameter. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and
short bowing line segments. As the storms move east-northeastward
toward the southwest Iowa later this evening, the cells should
become elevated. This could mean the large hail will eventually
become the primary threat.

..Broyles/Gleason.. 05/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7XIaLnBfaanj27IRQfHeptV_QT9KCDrst1ESdDvjUGSKrk0woZX4KxYGOH8uFeYIqqBvdiw09= 2r4RgiFeXAsPVOl2Vk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 41919537 41599489 41139478 40519495 39979577 40059655
40359695 40849718 41189716 41669693 41979634 41919537=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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