ACUS11 KWNS 192157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192157=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-192330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0884
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Areas affected...Parts of southeast into east-central Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 292...295...

Valid 192157Z - 192330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 292, 295 continues.

SUMMARY...Storms over south-central/southeast Oklahoma should spread northeastward into an increasingly favorable corridor for supercell intensification over the next few hours -- with a corresponding
increase in tornado potential.

DISCUSSION...A somewhat messy convective evolution with embedded
supercell clusters is evolving from north-central TX into south-central/southeast OK as of 2150Z. Ahead of this activity, a
relatively pristine warm/moist sector is in place -- characterized
by lower 70s dewpoints beneath a steep midlevel lapse rate plume
(sampled by earlier special soundings across the region). This is
contributing to upwards of 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. A 40-45 kt low-level
jet over the warm sector is yielding clockwise-curved hodographs,
with around 270 m2/s2 effective SRH. This should support a gradual intensification of the ongoing convection into semi-discrete
supercells over the next few hours, and ample residence time in the high-helicity air will favor an increasing risk of tornadoes (some
of which could become strong to intense if a semi-discrete
supercell-mode can evolve). Very large hail and damaging winds will
also remain a concern with these storms.

..Weinman.. 05/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5XFnfQbIJjRlNSFM343Y19CaUe-BL_0QAw9PRQHf37QfrkZO7VF4ORq-cgiT15vMZhz65EfDq= h2VVED5kv3XCxDnRJ0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34209715 34519707 35219637 35509597 35609539 35569498
35399466 34999461 34559488 33999564 33729635 33759681
33979713 34209715=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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