ACUS11 KWNS 192031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192031=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-192200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0882
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Areas affected...Southern Iowa into northeast Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 192031Z - 192200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving out of northern Missouri will pose a
severe hail risk for parts of southern Iowa and northeast Missouri
over the next few hours. Watch issuance is expected.

DISCUSSION...Elevated convection continues to rapidly develop
northward across northern Missouri and is spreading into
south-central Iowa within a zone of strong warm air advection
between 925-850 mb. Despite being elevated in nature, MUCAPE and
effective shear downstream across IA and northeast MO remains very
favorable for organized convection (MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg and 45-55
knots respectively). Storm mode will likely remain a mix of
supercells and clusters, but intense updrafts will be capable of
producing severe hail, most likely between 1 to 2 inches diameter. A
severe thunderstorm watch will be needed soon to address this
threat.

..Moore/Hart.. 05/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!72EA7dcCbsby9X4Sl17AxB28ZIjBlxHYVUnyHvMDPEjeJRtqNX04MrPAUZ6qjIZ1zYaWloox_= a_lGs7x1UFWNvSCaKY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON 39819311 40369357 40649400 40989461 41159510 41409533
41699527 41889507 42099451 42099374 41979301 41619211
40799143 40319138 40019158 39799184 39749239 39709279
39819311=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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