ACUS11 KWNS 191934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191934=20
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-192130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0880
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas and adjacent portions of Mississippi...Tennessee...and Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 191934Z - 192130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated convection developing across northeast
Arkansas/parts of the mid-Mississippi River Valley may sufficiently
intensify to pose a hail/wind threat through late afternoon.
Coverage of strong/severe storms should remain too limited for watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, shallow convection has percolated
across northeast AR as temperatures warm into the mid 80s amid low
to mid 70 dewpoints. Within the last 15 minutes, GOES IR imagery
shows a few deeper towers developing, suggesting that this
convection is beginning to overcome lingering MLCIN and fully
realizing the high-buoyancy environment (MLCAPE estimated between
2500-3000 J/kg). 30-40 knot flow between 5-6 km sampled by regional
VWPs is supporting bulk shear values around 30 knots, which should
be sufficient to support a few stronger/severe cells through late
afternoon. Large hail should be the primary concern with
deeper/stronger cells, though numerous storms in close proximity may
promote destructive storm interactions and/or some degree of
clustering with an more pronounced damaging wind threat. In general,
severe storm coverage should remain sufficiently limited due to weak
forcing for ascent to preclude watch issuance at this time (though a
more robust/widespread severe threat is expected to emerge later
tonight).

..Moore/Hart.. 05/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!451dxy7w-6W_mdXMoD7cdE0B0c594qavsjx6wxc3Lv-GyARalJLFoJTdlxfNHAN7eqpawMITz= d4pyRunPI6CYDQWYzo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON 34469078 34629113 34969136 35359147 35839131 36389100
36639061 36678997 36548966 36308948 36068940 35688945
35248964 34738998 34499016 34469078=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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