ACUS11 KWNS 191845
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191845=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-192045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0879
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Areas affected...parts of north central Texas into south central
Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 292...

Valid 191845Z - 192045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 292 continues.

SUMMARY...Intensifying supercells increasingly probable through 4-7
PM CDT, initially posing a risk for large to giant hail, before the
risk for a couple of strong tornadoes increases toward early
evening. A new tornado watch is likely across parts of north
central Texas.

DISCUSSION...Even with downward mixing of momentum, within the more
strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer to the west of the
dryline, west-southwesterly surface gusts remain relatively modest,
as a significant mid-level trough begins to pivot northeast of the
southern high plains. However, as this trough gradually takes on
more of a negative tilt, strongest mid/upper forcing for ascent
within its base is forecast to overspread the dryline across the Red
River vicinity through 21-00Z.=20=20

Sustained intensifying thunderstorm development may now be underway
along the sharpening dryline to the southwest of Wichita Falls TX.=20
This seems likely to persist, as inhibition continues to erode with
further insolation and cooling aloft. A notable further increase in
number of storms seems probable with the forcing for ascent,
particularly focused south of Chickasha OK into the Mineral Wells TX
vicinity, before spreading northeastward/eastward.=20=20

Thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep lower/mid-tropospheric
lapse rates and CAPE approaching 4000 j/kg will probably support a
few intense supercells, in the presence of strongly sheared 40-50 kt southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. Toward 20/00Z, initially modest
low-level hodographs may begin to enlarge and become more conducive
to tornado potential across the Red River vicinity near/east of the
Ardmore vicinity.

..Kerr.. 05/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8M9hG7pQ03oKyy0HFTIrvk5AmUDEvXmuVVh0ojq52FHVFu76cySrXz2XkO3ru_oQ1OaiXMN1C= ZzEEWiXEiyP15we1hg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 34389814 35019760 35149676 34669616 33609625 32479794
32519880 33009921 34389814=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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