ACUS11 KWNS 191612
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191612=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-191845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0875
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Areas affected...central Oklahoma into south central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 191612Z - 191845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A few rapidly developing and intensifying supercells
appear possible as early as 1-3 PM CDT, accompanied by a risk for
large to giant hail and a strong tornado or two.

DISCUSSION...Convergence along the dryline appears at least
initially weak, and it is not clear how much this will change as it
gradually mixes eastward toward the Interstate 35 corridor through
18-20Z. However, deepening convection is evident to the south and
southeast of Chickasha OK, which appears rooted within a corridor of
stronger warm advection around the 850 mb level.

It appears that this may persist and perhaps develop northward into
early/mid afternoon, along the western periphery of a 30-40 kt
southerly 850 mb jet. At the same time, it appears that at least
modest mid-level height falls will begin to overspread the I-35
corridor, coincident with continuing insolation and warming of a
seasonably moist boundary layer. A corridor along and east of the
dryline is forecast to become characterized by large CAPE on the
order of 2000-4000+ J/kg.

As the initially elevated convection begins to acquire increasing
updraft inflow emanating from the unstable boundary-layer, and
inhibition weakens, rapid thunderstorm intensification appears
possible. In the presence of west-southwesterly deep-layer shear,
this probably will include at least a couple of evolving supercells
with potential to produce large to giant hail, along with a risk for
a strong tornado.

..Kerr/Hart.. 05/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_v_4QChlxHno_c0fM0b1FvIVXNKJyO1NZZ0hvpYYeVSpMwXoZYlxdtNEtaFSiHAW-Jvsl2m_Z= iZRwx6O20gZcuN1A3Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 36709756 37379681 37459587 36529514 35419585 34209680
33899724 34159790 35359788 36709756=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN


=3D =3D =3D
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