ACUS11 KWNS 191528
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191528=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-191730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0874
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Areas affected...parts of central and northeast Texas...southeastern
Oklahoma and adjacent southwestern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 191528Z - 191730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in strong thunderstorm development appears
possible through Noon to 2 PM CDT. This may include evolving
supercells, accompanied by a risk for tornadoes, in addition to
large hail. Trends are being monitored for the possibility of a
severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...A few cells have begun intensifying within a broader
area of convective development now spreading northeast of the I-35
corridor of central Texas. This appears to have been initially
supported by large-scale forcing for ascent associated with warm
advection based near the 700 mb level, downstream of a mid/upper
perturbation within the belt of westerlies emanating from the
lower-latitude eastern Pacific. However, the stronger convective
cores have probably begun to acquire updraft inflow emanating from
the seasonably moist boundary-layer.

The downstream downstream environment remains capped by an elevated
mixed layer based near/above 850 mb, but is warming with insolation.
Coupled with the forcing for ascent, erosion of the inhibition may
allow for a substantive further increase in stronger thunderstorm
development during the next several hours. This may include a few
intensifying supercells. In the presence of at least modestly
enlarging, clockwise curved low-level hodographs, this activity may
become accompanied by a risk for tornadoes, in addition to large
hail.

..Kerr/Hart.. 05/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8rWq5hsyXXFUNx6C8D_OqS4nHWgaZUAq-_uFSm-deTZ7NyanniRwy2doCJOHCG9-c-hRsUgN1= ISfLtKGaeR_397f4ok$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33739702 35249571 34519382 32819447 31729549 31629667
33069712 33739702=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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