ACUS11 KWNS 190135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190134=20
TXZ000-190230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0869
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0834 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Areas affected...Parts of west-central Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 288...

Valid 190134Z - 190230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 288 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat may be increasing locally across parts
of west-central Texas.

DISCUSSION...An isolated thunderstorm that has generally been
evolving along/west of the dryline is gradually impinging on the
moist sector -- where middle/upper 60s dewpoints are yielding strong surface-based instability. While modified RAP forecast soundings
indicate notable inhibition at the base of the EML, around 300 m2/s2
effective SRH and the aforementioned boundary-layer moisture will
support a conditional risk of a tornado as the storm continues
eastward over the next hour or so.

..Weinman.. 05/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-cfdRpJHR19vHwdN_vUkosyKLgo_nTa5k3tBvSEVh1E4XZRJn_38esuEdAlHr0dTlnA4LZto_= v8FNV7UmteRnPSin5E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...

LAT...LON 31580002 31690023 32040033 32319958 32289929 32029916
31769927 31580002=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)