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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0867

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 19 01:03:42 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 190103
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 190102=20
    TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-190230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0867
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0802 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of northern/central Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 289...

    Valid 190102Z - 190230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 289
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated risk of severe hail and locally damaging winds
    continues across parts of northern/central Arkansas.

    DISCUSSION...The earlier cluster of severe thunderstorms across northern/central Arkansas went through a weakening phase as its
    inflow became largely displaced to the cool side of the surface
    boundary amid strong low-level warm advection. However, recent radar
    data depicts some uptick in convection along the southern periphery
    of the anafrontal activity -- and these storms may be ingesting near-surface-based instability. If this trend continues, around
    40-50 kt of 0-6km shear (per LZK VWP and mesoanalysis data) should
    support an isolated risk of severe hail and damaging winds for the
    next couple hours. While the severe risk may extend eastward out of
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch 289, the expected localized nature of the
    risk should preclude a downstream watch (though trends will be
    monitored).

    ..Weinman.. 05/19/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-6Sn1DyzGGdpQl67o8I6tebPN21yVDJvNNgiMZGW1Tq4_LQESHy_8Kd_8TOwH8b5VVYgrfniB= 99QM7qBsSRNGHu-jPk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

    LAT...LON 34679057 35179258 35329279 35629264 35649231 35369060
    35159023 34869029 34679057=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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