ACUS11 KWNS 182321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182321=20
TXZ000-190015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0865
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0621 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Areas affected...Parts of north-central Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 288...

Valid 182321Z - 190015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 288 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado threat is increasing with a supercell cluster over north-central Texas.

DISCUSSION...The KDYX radar indicates gradual intensification of a
supercell cluster over north-central Texas. Given around 300 m2/s2
0-1km SRH (per DYX VWP data) and lower 70s dewpoints streaming
northward into the inflow of this activity, the tornado threat is
likely increasing. The eastern part of the risk area may be limited
due to substantial inhibition sampled by the earlier 20Z FWD
sounding -- especially in the near-term.

..Weinman.. 05/18/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7zvM8_2AwLuumiRfXs0fkPlTEhHM6_gL8lJ-Bgv4vAmSM12IlGBiXWrkJxrsRuXXQMkbLdeMg= TLhYf1L0FdXMuLH1TU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON 32429948 32749942 33099917 33219884 33179857 32969833
32539831 32229852 32069894 32139940 32429948=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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