ACUS11 KWNS 182239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182239=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-190115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0864
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0539 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Areas affected...Southern Nebraska...North-central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 182239Z - 190115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across north-central
Kansas, and expected to develop across parts of southern Nebraska.
Supercells with large to very large hail, wind damage and an
isolated tornado threat will be possible. Weather watch issuance
appears likely.

DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, convection has increased in
coverage across north-central Kansas. The storms are located along
the eastern edge of a moderately unstable airmass, where surface
dewpoints are in the lower 60s F. The storms appears to be related
to a band of large-scale ascent that is moving northeastward across
the central Plains, evident on water vapor imagery. The North-Platte
20Z sounding shows a cap in place, and RAP forecast soundings
suggest the cap extends further to the southeast into north-central
Kansas. For this reason, the ongoing convection appears to be
elevated. Effective shear of 50 to 60 knots and 700-500 mb lapse
rates near 8 C/km will be favorable for supercells with large hail.
Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. In
addition, an isolated wind-damage/tornado threat will also be
possible. Although this potential will increase later this evening
as a second round of storms move into the area.

..Broyles.. 05/18/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-GDQCUgANUWXyOUJ9g1QAt09qbEQh2kE0kOVUDQrbAkwybhQQrsVFl-EdUeaTyJVWNcAVP2tJ= mT1s_Um3-l4Rk4ESa4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 38319798 38129738 38269694 38499664 39029644 39599675
40239760 41069890 41139952 40799997 40289994 39569951
38829873 38319798=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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