ACUS11 KWNS 182215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182214=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-190015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0863
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0514 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...Southwest Nebraska...Northwest
Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 286...

Valid 182214Z - 190015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 286 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase across parts of the
central High Plains over the next couple of hours. Tornadoes, large
hail and wind damage will be possible with the more intense cores.

DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery at Cheyenne,
Wyoming shows a cluster of severe storms with several supercells
located from northeastern Colorado into far western Nebraska. The
storms are located to the west of a low-level moisture axis, where
surface dewpoints are in the 55 to 60 F range, and the RAP has
MLCAPE estimated in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Convective coverage
is expected to increase as large-scale ascent, associated with an
approaching mid-level trough, overspreads the central High Plains.=20=20
The exit region of a mid-level jet is currently located over the
central High Plains, which is enhancing lift and deep-layer shear.
The latest WSR-88D VWP at Goodland, Kansas has 0-6 km shear near 50
knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 300 m2/s2. In
addition, the 20Z sounding at North Platte, Nebraska has a 700-500
mb lapse rate near 9 C/km. This environment will be favorable for
supercells with tornadoes, large and wind damage. Hailstones greater
than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense
supercells.

..Broyles.. 05/18/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Np9oZBU6ERDxJqXoswZ3_c4IQRvi_3kif9Adgw6r-uTyLCvGXqlmiyCSmR-IPbQSxy_odFSH= yOgAgX48oQ-6gK_hKE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 39869942 40519970 41590087 42050198 42120272 42020339
41750387 41380421 40970417 40610363 39930268 39370211
38900154 38740105 38920022 39339962 39869942=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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