ACUS11 KWNS 182211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182211=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-182345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0862
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Areas affected...Parts of northwestern Oklahoma into extreme
southwest Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 287...

Valid 182211Z - 182345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 287 continues.

SUMMARY...Supercell tornado threat increasing across parts of
northwestern Oklahoma into extreme southwest Kansas during the next
couple hours.

DISCUSSION...Splitting supercells are evolving across the
northeastern Texas Panhandle. While these storms are gradually
impinging on the richer boundary-layer moisture (upper 60s
dewpoints), they are still in the slightly higher-mixed/lower SRH
air at this time. As a result, splitting-supercell mode may continue
in the immediate near-term, with an associated risk of very large
hail and severe wind gusts. With time, these storms will continue spreading/developing northeastward into northwest Oklahoma, where
visible satellite imagery depicts an antecedent sheltered boundary
layer (with around 300 m2/s2 0-1km SRH per VWP and mesoanalysis
data) and lower 70s dewpoints becoming increasingly unstable. Given
the high SRH and strong/extreme surface-based instability here, and
further increases in clockwise hodograph curvature/helicity into the
evening with the strengthening low-level jet, the supercell tornado
risk will continue increasing over the next couple hours. If a
dominant right-mover can evolve, a strong/intense tornado will be
possible.

..Weinman.. 05/18/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!87HoMKxW9BBAXNt0KnncCr22tEQSvX_tXiCpzYRBezO_N9Nrtjkx7JBSF7aTqHtCblSLG9gsS= ORwrGeTZESK6I3I_pA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 35929987 36100008 36430031 36800024 37020001 37069968
36889924 36499894 36119893 35929907 35859959 35929987=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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