ACUS11 KWNS 181913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181912=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-182145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0859
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Areas affected...northeast Colorado...western Nebraska...northwest
Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 181912Z - 182145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Supercells capable of very large hail, tornadoes, and
damaging wind are likely to develop after 21Z over northeast
Colorado, spreading into western Nebraska and northwest Kansas
through evening.

DISCUSSION...A surface low continues to deepen over eastern CO as
the shortwave trough moves across the area. Surface analysis shows a
prominent plume of low-level moisture extending out of western KS
and across northeast CO, where dewpoints are holding in the lower
50s F.=20

Full heating near and south of this moisture plume will erode the
minimal capping inversion by around 21Z, and rapid thunderstorm
development is expected. The combination of strong instability,
steep lapse rates, and veering winds with height will strongly favor
supercells capable of very large hail, and a few tornadoes. Activity
should easily remain severe into NE and KS this evening as the
southeasterly low-level jet persists, maintaining moisture advection
as well as shear and inflow.

..Jewell/Hart.. 05/18/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9weQj7zscgU2GfvyYj2o45RNrrF0BTofNqI0aZ6AxilEd_sc0g1I4Y41PgqrVzhKeT-d1ZQ8q= fImEz1yWXT9lsLyM98$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 39239981 38670057 38350123 38330167 38340215 39110277
39420328 39670364 39890412 40260434 40540451 40870437
41320401 41530379 41700344 41680291 41470190 41060094
40019974 39689971 39239981=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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