ACUS11 KWNS 171857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171856=20
WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-172100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0839
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Areas affected...Northern Utah and adjacent portions of far
southeast Idaho and southwest Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 171856Z - 172100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms developing across
northern/northeast Utah into far southeast Idaho and southwest
Wyoming may be capable of severe gusts through late afternoon. Watch
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, temperatures have warmed into the
mid to upper 60s across northeast UT on the eastern fringe of a
dense cirrus canopy. Based on forecast soundings, temperatures in
the 65-70 F range are required for surface-based convective
initiation, which appears to be ongoing based on recent convective
trends. Although buoyancy will remain very modest across the region
(250-500 J/kg), a 2-3 km deep, well-mixed boundary layer will
enhance convective downdrafts and support the potential for strong
to severe wind gusts (most likely between 55-70 mph). This threat
will likely persist through early evening as lift ahead of an
approaching upper wave increases and low-level temperatures continue
to warm across the region. Convective coverage should gradually
increase through late afternoon, but storm longevity and the overall
convective environment should remain sufficiently limited to
preclude watch issuance.

..Moore/Hart.. 05/17/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4i_PgseH_wNhzflQbJx85JWPxN8XBoTzsnjLoX-5oFnZ0_LBH-iiOPh7X91yeTcigtWq2Y2MI= tO3tdIqZM7OMq-4G8s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...

LAT...LON 41230942 40200947 39690973 39281044 39041097 39081136
39351165 39901206 40621230 41611241 42101231 42231212
42341180 42521083 42360991 41900959 41230942=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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