ACUS11 KWNS 171033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171033=20
ALZ000-GAZ000-MSZ000-171200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0834
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0533 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Areas affected...Northern Mississippi and central/northern Alabama

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 275...

Valid 171033Z - 171200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 275
continues.

SUMMARY...Long-lived thunderstorm clusters continue east across
northern Mississippi and central Alabama. Isolated hail and strong
winds remain possible.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived, leading thunderstorm capable of hail and
strong winds continues to move across central Alabama this morning.
To the west, a line of additional thunderstorms stretches back into
southeast Arkansas. A couple of stronger cores across central
Alabama appear to have been able to tap into the substantial CAPE
reservoir (MUCAPE greater than 2000 J/kg) along and just south of
these thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear remains strong as well.

As we approach the diurnal minimum in convection, the overall
tendency of these thunderstorms should be to continue their downward
intensity trend. That said, the overall environment is still
supportive of at least episodic pulses of severe potential and thus
additional instances of severe hail or wind cannot be ruled out.

A local extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #275 may be needed
across central Alabama to the south of the west-to-east, southward
sagging linear MCS should convective intensity within the line ticks
up. Elsewhere, trends will continue to be monitored for possible
early cancellation of portions of the watch.

..Marsh.. 05/17/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6kYJ1eRckMRwClUy7lx7QRAj_MylV2RayEO33yN4t79j5rP7ZgEJDvpDaK0igHGSlxT4IBGMG= LJdMYI4Kcjvkdr0RSM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 33519057 34858558 33108564 32858986 33519057=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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