ACUS03 KWNS 060721
SWODY3
SPC AC 060720

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for organized severe weather is uncertain on Thursday,
though stronger storms may occur in parts of the Southeast and the
eastern Florida coast.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level trough will continue to become broad and elongated
in the Midwest/East on Thursday. As this occurs, a strong belt of
mid-level winds will be maintained along the Gulf Coast region into
the Southeast and North Florida. The surface pattern will remain
somewhat disorganized, but a weak cold front/surface trough is
anticipated from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the southern
Mid-Atlantic region. Convection is likely along the coast into the
northern Gulf on a remnant boundary.

...Florida...
Convection is likely to form on the sea breeze boundary in
east-central into North Florida. Temperatures aloft will be around
-11 C at 500 mb. With the belt of stronger mid-level winds in the
region, it is possible a few stronger storms could produce hail or
strong winds. The primary uncertainty is the evolution of the
upper-level trough. The NAM is currently the only guidance showing
sufficient shear for organized storms. Other guidance has the
stronger winds lagging to the west.

...Northern Portions of Mississippi/Alabama...
Some boundary-layer destabilization is possible along the weak
surface trough during the afternoon. Confidence in strong enough
wind shear for organized convection is medium to high, but potential
for cloud cover from isolated early day activity along the trough
and activity near the Gulf coast increases uncertainty in adequate
buoyancy.

..Wendt.. 05/06/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 061931
SWODY3
SPC AC 061930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A BROAD
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are
possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas
across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States.

...Synopsis...
A trio of primary shortwave impulses will aid in placement of a
large-scale trough from QC to the Rio Grande on Thursday afternoon.
This will support a broad swath of 30-50 kt 500-mb southwesterlies
across much of the southern to eastern states. This will occur
beneath upper-level jetlets, centered on the Lower Mid-Atlantic
States to the central/southern Appalachians, and trailing into
central/east TX. Attendant surface reflection will be weak, with
minor lows in the Mid-South and VA. A surface ridge should nose down
the southern High Plains and across much of the Rio Grande.

...Rio Grande Valley...
The lower-amplitude impulse within the base of the broad trough may
dampen somewhat. But most guidance suggests sufficient large-scale
ascent will exist for thunderstorms from the Trans-Pecos
moving/developing southeastward along the Rio Grande Thursday
afternoon and evening. The aforementioned surface ridging will
temper buoyancy northwest of Deep South TX. But a sufficient combo
of CAPE/shear should exist for at least isolated large hail and
strong gusts.

...Mid/Deep South...
Convective signal is strongest near the Mid-South shortwave impulse
during peak heating and along the central Gulf Coast during the
morning. The impact of the early-day activity yields a more nebulous
evolution to strong/severe storms north and east of it across the
Deep South. Where more robust diurnal heating can occur, the
favorable deep-layer flow regime will offer a threat of both severe
hail and damaging wind.

...South Atlantic Coast...
A mix of isolated severe hail and damaging winds will be possible,
especially along the sea breeze. A moderate combination of mid-level
westerlies and MLCAPE should foster a few weakly rotating
cells/clusters Thursday afternoon.

...Lower Mid-Atlantic...
A well-mixed boundary layer seems plausible by Thursday afternoon
amid limited low-level moisture north of the Carolinas. Strong
mid/upper-level speed shear and weak mid-level height falls should
support small hail in at least isolated storms, along and east of
the Appalachians. This will likely enhance downburst potential and
isolated damaging winds should be the main hazard.

..Grams.. 05/06/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070713
SWODY3
SPC AC 070712

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the Florida
Panhandle into North Florida, southeast Georgia, and central/coastal
South Carolina on Friday.

...Synopsis...
The elongated upper-level trough will begin to evolve into a
stronger trough in the Northeast with a weak cutoff low developing
in parts of the southern Plains and Mid-South. Much of the stronger
mid-level winds will be offshore during the period. During the
afternoon, remnant 30-40 kts mid-level winds are expected from the
Florida Panhandle into South Carolina. Convection appears possible
along a weak surface boundary as well as the Atlantic sea breeze.

...Florida Panhandle into South Carolina...
Dewpoints near and south of the weak boundary should hold in the
low/mid 60s F during the afternoon. Despite some potential cloud
cover influence from convection within the Gulf, most guidance
suggests that strong surface heating should occur. 1500-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE and 25-35 kts of effective shear will support organized
storms. Highest confidence in development is along the Florida sea
breeze. The weak surface boundary may see more isolated coverage
unless some clustering can occur. Isolated large hail and damaging
winds will be possible.

..Wendt.. 05/07/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 071923
SWODY3
SPC AC 071922

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, from damaging winds along with some
hail, are possible across the Southeast States, mainly on Friday
afternoon to early evening.

...Synopsis...
An elongated mid/upper-level trough will begin to separate into a
more compact trough across the Northeast and a weak cutoff low over
the South-Central States. A weak surface cyclone should accompany
the northern shortwave impulse, tracking from the VA vicinity
towards coastal southern New England.

...Southeast...
The aforementioned synoptic pattern evolution will confine the
spatial extent of at least moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies
closer to the Coastal Plain and Piedmont regions of the Southeast by
Friday afternoon. This should overlap a broad swath of 60s surface
dew points, with strong boundary-layer heating from the Carolinas
southward where moderate buoyancy is anticipated. Large-scale ascent
tied to the vigorous shortwave impulse over the Northeast should
largely remain displaced farther north of this plume. Highest
confidence in scattered storm development is along the sea breezes
and lee trough along the southern Appalachians. Isolated damaging
winds and severe hail will be possible.

..Grams.. 05/07/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 080733
SWODY3
SPC AC 080733

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTH FLORIDA...FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of northern
Florida and southern Georgia on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
The cutoff upper low in the lower Mississippi Valley is forecast to
retrograde westward on Saturday. A warm front will be roughly
parallel to the Gulf Coast. Warm air advection across the warm front
and subtle shortwave perturbations around the upper low will promote
widespread precipitation in the central/eastern Gulf Coast regions.
A trough will push into the Northwest and northern Rockies with
strong mid-level winds moving into western Montana towards Sunday
morning.

...Florida Panhandle...North Florida...southern Georgia...
Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will persist through the day.
There will be concern for cloud cover from the convection to the
west and within the Gulf itself. However, a plume of steeper
mid-level lapse rates will extent into parts of central/northeast
Florida. Where surface heating can occur, a few strong to severe
storms are possible. Large hail and damaging winds would be the
primary threats, but a tornado could occur near the warm front.
Upper level winds will not be overly strong and shear will be
focused from low to mid-levels. This will potentially lead to rain
negatively impacting inflow of storms.

...Southwest Montana...
With the approach of mid-level shortwave trough, isolated convection
will likely develop within the higher terrain. Moisture will be
limited, but cold temperatures aloft will promote weak MLCAPE in
some areas. A few strong to near-severe gusts could occur, but storm coverage/intensity does not currently warrant probabilities.

..Wendt.. 05/08/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 081831
SWODY3
SPC AC 081830

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of northern
Florida and southern Georgia on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will shift into the Plains on Saturday, as a compact
shortwave trough exits the Northeast. Beneath the building ridge, an
upper low will meander about the Sabine/lower MS Valleys, providing
cool air aloft.

At the surface, high pressure will stretch from James Bay into the
Southern Plains, with another ridge from the Carolinas into the mid
MS Valley. An old front will stall roughly from far southern AL and
GA into northern FL, with northerly winds across much of the western
Gulf.

...Northern FL into southern GA...
Storms will likely be ongoing near or just south of the northern
Gulf Coast for much of the day. Some of this activity may affect
parts of the coastal FL Panhandle with heavy rain and locally strong
wind gusts.

To the east, heating over parts of FL, and perhaps far southern GA,
will contribute to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, resulting in an uncapped
air mass. Convergence near the front as well as weak warm advection
from the south will lead to scattered storms. Shear will not be
particularly strong, but the strongest initial cores may produce
hail as temperatures aloft will be cool. Otherwise, clusters of
storms or outflows could locally cause wind damage.

..Jewell.. 05/08/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 090730
SWODY3
SPC AC 090729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Fri May 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN FL...SWRN GA...SRN/WRN
AL...SRN AND CNTRL MS...SERN LA...ERN MT...NWRN SD...WRN ND...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf
coast region on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail
and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be
accompanied by strong to severe surface gusts across parts of
eastern Montana into the western Dakotas late Sunday afternoon and
evening.

...Discussion...
Little change to the general large-scale pattern is expected from
Saturday into Sunday, with much of North America remaining under the
influence of amplified, split westerlies - stronger across the
northern mid-latitudes than across the southern mid- and subtropical
latitudes. Within this regime, significant mid-level troughing,
with at least a couple of smaller-scale embedded perturbations, is
forecast to begin digging inland of the northern U.S. Pacific coast.
It appears that the leading edge of broad downstream ridging across
the interior of North America will overspread the St. Lawrence
Valley and Northeast. In lower latitudes, the center of a broad
mid-level low may begin a very slow acceleration back to the
northeast, across the lower Mississippi Valley vicinity.

In lower levels, an initial weak low may weaken further across the
Canadian Prairies into northern Ontario, as surface troughing
deepens upstream, to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S.
Rockies. The center of cool surface ridging, initially across the
lower Great Lakes vicinity, is likely to redevelop southeastward off
the northern Mid Atlantic coast. Near the southwestern periphery of
this surface ridging, a broad area of lower surface pressure may
shift inland off the Gulf into the lower Mississippi Valley,
accompanied by boundary-layer moistening inland of eastern Gulf
coastal areas.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/eastern Gulf Coast...
Beneath the mid-level cold core of the low, and the downstream
modest, difluent southwesterly mid/upper flow, models suggest that thermodynamic profiles by Sunday afternoon may become conducive to
widely scattered strong thunderstorms with potential to produce some
severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. This is expected to
generally become focused within the weak surface troughing across
parts of the western Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama into
southeastern Louisiana and southern/central Mississippi, and perhaps
along a convective outflow boundary advancing into Florida coastal
areas north of Tampa.

...Northern Rockies/Great Plains...
Downstream of the of large-scale mid/upper troughing digging into
the Northwest, it appears that forcing for ascent could support
scattered high-based thunderstorm activity, particularly within an
evolving deeply mixed boundary layer characterize by large surface temperature/dew point spreads, but with weak CAPE, to the lee of the
northern Rockies. The NAM, perhaps more so than other guidance,
suggests that consolidating outflow, associated with a clustering of
storms across parts of southeastern Montana into the western
Dakotas, aided by evaporative cooling/some melting and downward
transport of momentum, may become sufficient for a few strong to
severe surface gusts by Sunday evening.

..Kerr.. 05/09/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 091930
SWODY3
SPC AC 091929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact the eastern Gulf
coast region on Sunday, posing at least some risk for severe hail
and locally strong surface gusts. Additional thunderstorms may be
accompanied by strong gusts across parts of the northern Rockies and
High Plains late Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will remain nearly stationary over LA, providing cool
temperatures aloft from TX into the Gulf Coast region. Moderate
southwest winds aloft will remain over the eastern Gulf and
overspread much of AL, GA, and FL late. Low pressure and numerous
storms will affect those same states for much of the day.

To the west, an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will deepen
further, with a 70 kt midlevel jet nosing into central MT. A surface
trough will deepen over the northern High Plains, and extending west
across MT and into ID, with steep lapse rates supporting scattered thunderstorms.

...Southern MS/AL/GA into FL...
Numerous storms will likely be ongoing throughout the day over the
northeast Gulf and spreading into AL, northern FL and GA. Scattered
strong wind gusts may occur with these outflows. Farther west,
daytime storms may also develop over MS and AL where heating occurs
beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Sporadic hail or strong gusts
may occur.

...Northern High Plains...
As the upper trough overspreads the region, steepening lapse rates
will result in a large area of potential thunderstorm threat.
Strengthening southwest flow aloft will also conditionally support
cellular activity with marginal hail or localized severe gusts. At
this time, will maintain the existing Marginal Risk over eastern MT
near the lee trough. Additional parts of MT or even ID and northwest
WY may eventually need to be added to the Marginal Risk area in
later outlooks.

..Jewell.. 05/09/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 100724
SWODY3
SPC AC 100723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND WRN/CNTRL SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on
Monday, particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into
the South Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a
risk for producing a couple of tornadoes and locally strong surface
gusts.

...Discussion...
Within the amplified, split westerlies, one significant mid/upper
trough is forecast to continue digging inland of the U.S. Pacific
coast during this period, downstream of a prominent ridge across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. It does appear that one or two
smaller-scale perturbations emerging from this trough will
accelerate northeastward across the northern U.S. Rockies into the
Canadian Prairies, around the northwestern periphery of broad
downstream ridging extending across the northern U.S. Great Plains
through St. Lawrence Valley.

In lower-levels, models indicate that deeper surface troughing will
shift east of the Rockies into Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the
Dakotas, while deepening southward through the southern high plains.
However, destabilization near this feature is likely to be
significantly inhibited by warm air aloft, and the lack of
appreciable low-level moisture return due to the continuing presence
of a broad mid/upper low initially centered across the lower
Mississippi Valley.

Cut off from the stronger westerlies, to the south of the broad
mid-level ridging, movement of this low is likely to remain slow;
however, models indicate that it will probably elongate
north-northeastward across the Mid South and lower Ohio Valley,
while taking on a negative tilt east of the lower Mississippi Valley
into Southeast. In lower levels, this may be accompanied by broad,
weak surface troughing developing across much of the Southeast, as
surface ridging slowly shifts east of the Atlantic Seaboard.

...Southeast...
Differences exist among the various model output, but the gradient
between the low-level ridging and troughing may continue to support
a belt of modest southerly low-level flow (20-30+ kt around 850 mb)
along a corridor roughly from the Florida Peninsula into the South
Carolina Piedmont. It appears probable that this will coincide with
a deep lower/mid-tropospheric moist plume emanating from the lower
latitudes, beneath a belt of moderate to strong, difluent
southwesterly high-level flow, perhaps contributing to an
environment at least conditionally supportive of supercells with
potential to produce tornadoes and locally strong surface gusts.

..Kerr.. 05/10/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 101903
SWODY3
SPC AC 101902

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong storms may impact parts of the Southeast on Monday,
particularly a corridor across the Florida Peninsula into the South
Carolina Piedmont, where strongest activity may pose a risk for
producing a couple of tornadoes, locally strong surface gusts, and
marginally severe hail.

...Eastern AL into GA/FL/SC...

An upper low over the Lower MS Valley will lift north/northeast
toward the lower OH Valley on Monday. Enhanced southwesterly flow on
the eastern periphery of this feature will overspread much of FL
into GA and the Carolinas. At the surface, southeasterly low-level
flow will maintain mid 60s F dewpoints. Cool temperatures aloft (-10
to -14 C) will support modest destabilization, though ongoing
convection Monday morning and regional cloud cover are likely to
limit stronger insolation. Given vertically veering wind profile
with 30-40 kt flow above 700 mb, effective shear magnitudes greater
than 30 kt are forecast. This should allow for scattered organized
cells, with isolated supercells possible. Locally strong gusts,
isolated marginally severe hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be
possible across the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) area during the
afternoon.

..Leitman.. 05/10/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 110729
SWODY3
SPC AC 110728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible
across the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
It appears that significant mid/upper-level troughing progressing
inland of the U.S. Pacific coast may dig as far south as the lower
Colorado Valley, and suppress ridging within a belt of westerlies
emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, across the
southwestern international border area. Thereafter, models indicate
that the perturbation will turn eastward across the Intermountain
West later Tuesday through Tuesday night, with intensifying difluent west-southwesterly mid/upper flow overspreading the southern Rockies
by 12Z Wednesday.

In lower levels, modestly deep surface troughing to the lee of the
Rockies may continue to slowly shift eastward across the Great
Plains. However, in the wake of broad, weak negatively tilted
mid/upper troughing shifting east of the Mississippi Valley, toward
the Atlantic coast at a slower pace than the upstream trough,
strengthening low-level flow (up to 30-40 kt around 850 mb) is
forecast to maintain a pronounced westerly component across the
southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley. This will
continue to impede boundary-layer moisture return off the Gulf into
the Great Plains, though evapotranspiration may contribute to
moistening beneath the leading edge of a plume of warm elevated
mixed-layer air advecting eastward across the central and southern
Great Plains.

Downstream, models indicate that there will be gradual further
deepening of broad, weak surface troughing across much of the
Southeast. However, the plume of seasonably high moisture content
air emanating from the lower latitudes is forecast to generally
shift east of the south Atlantic coast during the day Tuesday,
though this may be slower to occur across southeast coastal areas of
the Florida Peninsula.

...Intermountain West into Great Plains...
Models suggest that destabilization beneath an elongated mid-level
cold pool, trailing the surface cold front, may contribute to
scattered, generally weak/diurnal thunderstorm activity across the
northern Rockies and intermountain region, into the vicinity of the
northern Sierra Nevada.

Near the surface troughing across the Dakotas, it appears that a
strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary may become characterized
by 40-50 F surface temperature/dew point spreads, but with
thermodynamic profiles still supportive of CAPE on the order of
500-1000 J/kg. High-based thunderstorm development appears possible
near/after peak heating, which could pose some risk for locally
strong surface gusts. However, the extent of this potential remains
unclear, and too uncertain to introduce even low severe
probabilities at the present time.

...Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic/Southeast...
Scattered, largely diurnal thunderstorm activity will again be
possible beneath the weak/weakening mid-level troughing. Stronger
convection may focus along the sea breeze near southeastern Florida
coastal areas, and perhaps across parts of the mid and southern
Atlantic Piedmont, where at least modest boundary-layer
destabilization may occur. However, it is not yet clear that this
will be accompanied by an appreciable risk for severe weather.

..Kerr.. 05/11/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 111912
SWODY3
SPC AC 111911

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears low across the
U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Ohio Valley into the Southeast...

The persistent mid/upper low over the Mid-South and attendant trough
extending into the Gulf will likely weaken as the system shift east
toward the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. While some modest vertical
shear will remain over portions of the region, overall wind field is
expected to be weaker. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist airmass will
modestly destabilize diurnally in pockets of heating. Isolated
strong storms producing locally gusty winds and perhaps small hail
are possible, though overall severe potential appears less compared
to previous days.

...Intermountain West into the Great Plains...

A deepening upper trough near the Pacific coast will shift east over
the West on Tuesday. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow will
overspread the Rockies to the High Plains. Diurnal thunderstorms may
develop over the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies.
Instability and heating are expected to remain modest, limiting
severe potential across the higher terrain of the Intermountain
West.

Further east into the Plains, lee troughing along the High Plains
will sharpen with the approach of the upper trough. The upper low
over the southeastern U.S. will limit northwest moisture return
across much of the Plains. Nevertheless, strong heating and steep
midlevel lapse rates will support weak to moderate destabilization.
However, capping will likely limit much in the way of thunderstorm
development. A surface cold front is forecast to move east/southeast
across the Dakotas during the evening and overnight. This may allow
for a storm or two to develop after peak heating. This activity
would likely be either elevated or high-based. If a storm develops,
hail would be possible. Uncertainty in storm development/coverage
precludes severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 05/11/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 120722
SWODY3
SPC AC 120721

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
central to northern Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A progressive upper trough is forecast to pivot from the
Intermountain West into the northern Plains through the day
Wednesday. Ahead of this wave, an elongated surface trough draped
across the Plains will undergo consolidation as a surface cyclone
begins to organize over the Dakotas through the forecast period. The
arrival of a cold front coincident with the ejection of the upper
trough will provide an impetus for thunderstorm development across
the central to northern Plains during the afternoon and evening
hours. Further east, a weakening upper wave over the Mid-Atlantic
will continue to slowly lift to the northeast. A combination of cold temperatures aloft, moist low-level conditions, and modest
broad-scale ascent will promote widespread showers and weak
thunderstorms across the upper OH River Valley and Mid-Atlantic
region.

...Central/Northern Plains...
A somewhat expansive warm sector will become established across much
of the Plains through the day Wednesday; however, the eastward
advection of a strong EML will hinder convective development for
much of the southern and central Plains. Although moisture return
into the northern Plains will be somewhat modest compared to
locations further south (dewpoints only reaching the mid to upper
50s), strong deep-layer ascent ahead of the approaching wave and
within the left-exit region of the attendant mid-level jet will
sufficiently erode residual capping by late afternoon to promote
thunderstorm initiation along the cold front within an unstable air
mass. The favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should
promote a few strong/severe storms capable of severe hail/wind,
though deep-layer shear vectors and initial storm motions largely
parallel to the front will promote quick upscale growth into one or
more convective clusters/line segments that may limit the overall
duration and coverage of the severe threat. A more prolonged, but
isolated, severe threat may materialize late evening into the
overnight hours within the MO River Valley as isentropic ascent at
the terminus of the nocturnal jet increases and promotes additional thunderstorm development - though model consensus regarding this
potential is limited at this range.

..Moore.. 05/12/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 121912
SWODY3
SPC AC 121911

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over
parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, a potent shortwave trough will move from the Four
Corners region into the central Plains, with a 70+ kt midlevel speed
max over KS by 12Z Thursday. The primary upper low will deepen over
eastern MT, with most of the cooling aloft north of a line from
northern NM into eastern NE. Ahead of this system, heights will rise
over the MS Valley and Southeast, while the lingering upper trough
over the East dissipates further.

At the surface, a trough will stretch roughly from the central
Dakotas into KS at 00Z, with a surface low taking shape and
deepening overnight into eastern NE and IA. Modest moisture return
will occur ahead of the surface trough, with 50s to near 60 F
dewpoints to the Dakotas portion of the boundary. A more robust
plume of moisture with mid 60s F dewpoints is likely from the lower
MO to middle MS Valleys.

Overnight, winds around 850 mb will strengthen as the low develops,
but will also veer from southwest through northwest, resulting in
advection of drier air.

...Northern and central Plains...
Northern portions of the upper trough will emerge into the northern
Plains in meridional fashion through early evening, with the primary
speed max well to the south until early Thursday. Gradual cooling
aloft will overspread the surface trough and wind shift, where
strong heating will occur. The result will be moderate instability,
with scattered storms erupting within the north-south zone from the
Dakotas into NE.

Coincident with the storm development, a cold frontal surge will
occur over the northern High Plains, which should help push this
activity perhaps into western MN and IA by 12Z Thursday. Shear
profiles will not be particularly strong initially, but may become
increasingly favorable overnight to support corridors of severe wind
and hail.

..Jewell.. 05/12/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 130729
SWODY3
SPC AC 130729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts
of the western Great Lakes and Midwest Thursday afternoon and
evening. A more isolated/conditional severe threat will extend into
the mid-Mississippi River Valley during the late evening and
overnight hours.

...Synopsis...
The upper trough currently situated over the Pacific Northwest is
forecast to eject into the Plains/upper MS River Valley through the
day Thursday. A surface low will intensify through early afternoon
before beginning the occlusion process as a Pacific cold front
pushes east. Ahead of this front, southeasterly low-level flow will
advect upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints northeastward into the upper
MS River Valley and Midwest regions. Thunderstorm development is
likely along the front as it impinges on the returning moisture
across the upper MS Valley and western Great Lakes. Strong capping
with southward extent will likely result in more isolated
thunderstorm development along the front into parts of the Midwest
and OH Valley.

...Upper MS Valley into the Western Great Lakes...
Thunderstorm development is anticipated by early afternoon across
parts of the upper MS River Valley as the Pacific front surges into
the region under a 50-60 knot mid-level jet. While higher-quality
moisture will likely remain south of the region, dewpoints in the
low to mid 60s, coupled with steepening mid-level lapse rates,
should support MLCAPE values between 1500-2500 J/kg. Strong
mid-level flow will promote supercell wind profiles, and mean storm
motions off the front will likely support initially discrete cells
that should pose a severe hail/wind threat. Upscale growth into an
organized line is possible given strong forcing along the front as
an arcing line of storms moves east into the Great Lakes region.

Discrete supercells will be most probable on the southern extent of
the line of storms, but increasing capping with southwestward extent
introduces considerable uncertainty in how far south storms will
develop. The best thermodynamic and kinematic environment will
likely extend across IN into western OH and southward to the OH
river, but most deterministic and ensemble solutions show only weak
QPF signals across this region through early evening. 15%/Slight
risk probabilities were maintained for IN/western OH due to account
for low-probability, but potentially high-impact supercells within
this environment, but further refinements are likely as the
likelihood of convective initiation becomes more apparent.

...Mid-MS River Valley and lower OH Valley...
The Pacific front is forecast to gradually stall across northern AR
into the lower OH Valley through the overnight hours as the primary
surface low occludes to the north. Thunderstorm development along
the front is possible during the late evening/overnight hours with
most ensemble solutions showing some QPF signal during the 06-12 UTC
period as low-level isentropic ascent increases along the stalled
boundary. 40-50 knot mid-level flow will favor organized convection,
though storm motions along the boundary may promote clustering with
time. Regardless, some severe threat will likely manifest with this
activity during the overnight hours into early Friday morning.

..Moore.. 05/13/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 131932
SWODY3
SPC AC 131931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the
western Great Lakes states and into parts of the Midwest Thursday
afternoon and evening. Very large hail and a few tornadoes may
occur. A more isolated/conditional severe threat will extend
southwestward from western Kentucky into Arkansas late.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will deepen over the northern Plains as a midlevel wave
ejects northeastward toward the upper MS Valley. A surface low will
also deepen over ND/MN, with occlusion. Extending southeast from the
low will be a warm front, which will rapidly jump into northern MN
and WI by late afternoon, and through much of Lower MI during the
evening. Southeast winds near this boundary will bring mid to
perhaps upper 60s F dewpoints northwestward, resulting in areas of
strong instability. Given the fast motion of the shortwave trough
and strongly veering winds in the low-levels, the primary severe
risk area may be relatively narrow.

The main front/dryline will stall near the OH River or Mid MS Valley
and southwestward toward the Ozarks. This corridor, primarily later
in the evening, will likely foster isolated severe storms as well.

Elsewhere, a lingering upper trough will exit the Northeast, and
warm advection on the backside of this feature may support isolated
strong to severe storms from parts of PA into the Mid Atlantic
during the day.

...Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes/Midwest...
Models are in good agreement depicting a strong convective signal
near the MN/WI border by 20Z or so, with increasing coverage points
east through evening. Forecast soundings across WI and vicinity
depict steep lapse rates aloft and hodographs favoring supercells. A
strong tornado cannot be ruled out given the very favorable
thermodynamics, including a slight capping inversion atop the moist
boundary layer in combination with 200-300 m2/s2 ESRH.

Southeast of the Enhanced Risk area into IL and IN, storm coverage
looks to be more isolated. However, any supercells in this area will
have the same significant hail and tornado potential as points
north. This activity would likely wait until late in the day/after
21Z and closer to 00Z when heating is maximized to break the cap.

Nocturnal severe storms will also be likely across much of Lower MI,
northern IN and OH as activity moves in from the west. Supercells
producing large hail again appear likely.

...OH Valley into AR Late...
The aforementioned stalled boundary will be situated beneath
persistent southwest flow at 850 mb Thursday evening and overnight.
Robust moisture/high theta-e will be in place from eastern OK into
the OH Valley, and scattered storms are likely to develop overnight.
This area is a bit more conditional in terms of coverage of severe,
but clearly large hail will be possible. A brief tornado may occur
as well although hodographs will be primarily straight by this time.

..Jewell.. 05/13/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 140721
SWODY3
SPC AC 140720

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the
Ohio Valley region Friday afternoon and evening with more isolated
severe thunderstorms extending southwestward into northeast Texas.

...Synopsis...
A residual cold front associated with an occluding surface low over
the upper MS Valley is expected to stall across the Ozark Plateau
into the lower OH Valley region by around 12 UTC Friday. This
boundary is expected to lift northward through the day as an
effective warm front amid a persistent southerly low-level flow
regime. Aloft, a low-amplitude perturbation is expected to emanate
out of the central Plains into the mid-MS Valley. Westerly mid-level
flow associated with this wave will help mix a diffuse surface
trough/dryline across the eastern Plains through the late afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected along the lifting warm front
and possibly off the trough/dryline by late afternoon as lift
associated with the mid-level wave impinges on the warm sector.

...Ozark Plateau into the Ohio River Valley...
The general consensus among medium and long-range guidance is that thunderstorms developing along the warm front and/or surface trough
ahead of the mid-level wave will mature in an environment
characterized by MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg and effective bulk
shear values on the order of 40-50 knots. These
thermodynamic/kinematic conditions will be very favorable for
long-lived organized convection. However, disagreement among
solutions persists regarding the northward extent of the warm sector
by peak heating. Recent ECMWF/EPS runs hint at greater coverage of
ongoing showers/thunderstorms by 12 UTC Friday that will likely
inhibit northward advancement of the warm front. Conversely,
NAM/GFS/GEFS all depict less early-morning convection and thus lift
the boundary well north into southern IL/IN/OH with a more expansive
warm sector. As such, the envelope of potential outcomes remains
somewhat broad. Regardless, some combination of scattered supercells
and organized clusters, including the potential for a long-lived MCS
as hinted by some deterministic solutions, appears likely somewhere
across the Ozarks/OH Valley region Friday afternoon and evening.

...Southwest Arkansas into northeast Texas...
Thunderstorm initiation along a sharpening dryline appears probable
Friday afternoon/evening from southwest AR into northeast TX based
on recent ensemble QPF signals. While displaced from the stronger
mid-level flow and forcing for ascent to the north, sufficient
buoyancy and deep-layer shear should be in place to support isolated
supercells across the region with an attendant hail/wind threat.

..Moore.. 05/14/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 141933
SWODY3
SPC AC 141932

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN TO NORTHERN KENTUCKY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Middle Mississippi and
Ohio Valley region Friday afternoon and evening. All-severe hazards
are possible with this activity. More isolated severe thunderstorms
will extend southwestward into northeast Texas, and northeast into
the Mid-Atlantic.

...Mid-South/Ohio Valley vicinity...

An upper trough over the southern High Plains will pivot quickly
east/northeast across the Midwest on Friday. As this occurs, strong
mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the region, with a 500
mb jet around 70-90 kt forecast. At the surface, A very moist
airmass will be in place from southern MO into southern IL and
northeast into OH. Increasing southerly low-level flow ahead of a
surface cold front will allow a warm front, roughly along the I-70
corridor at mid-morning, to lift north toward the northern IL/IN/OH
through the afternoon. Cooling aloft will result in steep midlevel
lapse rates atop the mid/upper 60s F dewpoint surface warm sector,
resulting in strong destabilization.

A low-level jet around 45-65 kt is forecast to overspread the region
from peak heating into the evening, coincident with increasing
large-scale ascent. Both the eastward-advancing cold front/dryline
across MO, and the warm front vicinity will be a focus for
convective initiation. One or more bowing clusters is possible, in
addition to more discrete supercells. Given vertically veering
supercells wind profiles, significant severe storms appear possible
-- with a risk for all hazards accompanying this activity, including
very large hail, tornadoes, and intense wind gusts. The southward
extent of highest severe potential is a bit uncertain given
orientation of surface boundaries and potential overnight convection
in the Day 2/Thursday time period impacting parts of the KY
vicinity.

Eventually, a northeast to southwest line of storms will likely
congeal during the late evening/nighttime hours and sag southward
across KY into the TN Valley, with a gradually lessening severe risk
with southward extent during the overnight hours.

...TX into OK/AR...

With southwest extent, severe potential is a bit more
uncertain/conditional. Some minor height rises may occur across TX
and the into AR during the late afternoon/evening. Large-scale
ascent will be weaker and any capping may be more difficult to
overcome. Nevertheless, a very moist and unstable airmass will be in
place amid supercell wind profiles. If storms can develop, very
large hail and strong gusts will be possible.

...Mid-Atlantic Vicinity...

Convection may be ongoing in a warm advection regime Friday morning
as a weak shortwave impulse moves across the region through
afternoon. Moderate mid/upper flow will support effective shear
magnitudes around 25-35 kt, and be sufficient for some organized
convection. Pockets of stronger heating downstream from morning
activity will allow for weak to moderate destabilization. Isolated
strong to severe storms producing hail and gusty winds will be
possible.

..Leitman.. 05/14/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 150729
SWODY3
SPC AC 150729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...EASTERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday across parts of the Mid
Atlantic, and late Saturday into Saturday night across parts of the southeastern Great Plains.

...Discussion...
Downstream of a persistent, prominent mid-level ridge across the
southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific, models
indicate that large-scale troughing will continue to dig inland of
the Pacific coast through this period. It appears that this will
include one notable embedded smaller-scale perturbation digging
across the Sierra Nevada, toward the Four Corners, and a trailing
perturbation digging across the Pacific Northwest coast.

Farther downstream, it appears that one or two more modest short
wave impulses, within a belt of westerlies emanating from the
subtropical eastern Pacific, may accelerate across the northern
Mexican Plateau through the southern Great Plains and lower
Mississippi Valley, around the northwestern periphery of broad
mid/upper ridging centered over the Gulf Basin. To the north of
this ridge, large-scale ridging within the mid-latitude westerlies
is forecast to overspread much of the interior U.S., with a remnant
downstream cyclone and associated troughing progressing across parts
of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic.

In lower levels, models generally indicate that a significant cold
front will advance southeast of the lower Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley, while stalling across parts of the Mid South into central
Great Plains. However, this is likely to be preceded by a weaker
front, largely driven or reinforced by outflow from Friday/Friday
night convection.

...Mid Atlantic...
Strong convectively augmented westerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow
(in excess of 50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) is likely to spread
east of the Allegheny and Blue Ridge Mountains, coincident with the
convective outflow boundary by early Saturday. The extent and
intensity of continuing convective development along the gust front
at the outset of the period remains unclear. However, if the severe
storm cluster from Friday night does not maintain strength with a
continuing risk for severe wind gusts into and across the Mid
Atlantic early Saturday, it is possible that destabilization ahead
of the surface boundary could become sufficient for considerable re-intensification of thunderstorm activity along it, before it
advances offshore.

...Southeastern Great Plains...
Beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, models indicate
that seasonably moist air will maintain a reservoir of large CAPE
along and south of the initial pre-frontal wind shift/convective
outflow, roughly across the Ark-La-Texas, and east of a sharpening
dryline, across western North Texas toward the Del Rio TX area by
late afternoon. Aided by forcing for ascent and strengthening
westerly mid/upper flow associated with the subtropical
perturbations, isolated to scattered supercells may initiate and
propagate off the retreating dryline by late afternoon. Other
strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible, aided by
forcing for ascent associated with warm advection, where mid-level
inhibition will be weaker along and north of the initial pre-frontal
wind shift, and perhaps near the surface front across northern
Oklahoma into north central Arkansas.

..Kerr.. 05/15/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 151922
SWODY3
SPC AC 151920

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO ARKANSAS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday across parts of the Mid
Atlantic and Northeast, and across parts of the southeastern Great
Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...

An upper cyclone and attendant shortwave trough over the upper Great
Lakes to the TN Valley will shift east on Saturday, becoming
positioned from NY to offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast by Sunday
morning. Meanwhile, an upper trough will dig across the western U.S.
while upper ridging develops over much of the Plains. A belt of
strong westerly flow associated with the eastern upper trough will
overspread much of eastern U.S., while a sub-tropical jet streak
moves across the southern Plain into the Lower MS Valley.

At the surface, a cold front will surge east across the Ohio Valley
through early afternoon, and the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast during
the evening/overnight. The southwest extent of this surface boundary
will extend from the Lower OH Valley into central OK Saturday
morning. The boundary may sag southward across portions of the TN
Valley, while the Plains portion of the boundary lifts northward
into KS and southern MO during the evening/overnight. Meanwhile, a
surface dryline will extend south/southwest from near western OK to
the TX Big Bend vicinity.

...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley...

The building upper ridge over the Plains will likely suppress
convection across portions of the region as an EML will be difficult
to overcome without stronger large-scale ascent/height falls.
However, low-level convergence along the dryline amid persistent
low-level warm advection and forecast shortwave perturbations
migrating through the upper ridge from the southern Rockies into the
Red River vicinity may aid in isolated to widely scattered storm
development during the afternoon.

A very moist airmass will be in place (upper 60s/low 70s F
dewpoints) beneath 7.5-8.5 C/km midlevel lapse rates. This will
result in strong instability across the warm sector (MLCAPE greater
than 2500 J/kg). Furthermore, supercell wind profiles are apparent
in forecast soundings, with curved low-level hodographs become elongated/straight above 2-3 km. Any discrete cells that develop
will pose a risk for large to very large hail. If sufficient storm
coverage occurs, some clustering could result in upscale developing
into an MCS moving across the ArkLaTex vicinity and into the Lower
MS Valley during the evening/nighttime hours. If this occurs, a risk
for damaging gusts will increase.

...Southeast...

Convection may be ongoing/weakening across portions of
MS/AL/GA/SC/NC Saturday morning. It is unclear how this activity may
evolve, but an outflow boundary will likely extend across portions
of MS/AL/GA. Given a very moist and unstable airmass by afternoon
some redevelopment of thunderstorms is possible. Forcing for ascent
will be nebulous across the Deep South, so coverage may remain
sparse. Nevertheless, any storm that develops could produce strong
gusts or hail.

...NC/VA into the Northeast...

Convection may be ongoing across portions of NC/VA Saturday morning
but likely will be weakening as outflow is expected to be surging
across the Piedmont. It is unclear if redevelopment may occur ahead
of the surface cold front during the afternoon/evening. While a very
moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region,
large-scale ascent will remain weak and focused further north toward
the Northeast. If storms can develop, a risk for large hail and
damaging gusts will be possible.

Additional storms are expected to develop with northward extent into
the Northeast beneath the upper low and ahead of the surface cold
front. While boundary layer moisture will be more modest with
northward extent, cool temperatures aloft will foster modest
destabilization. Isolated to widely scattered storms will pose a
risk for hail and gusty winds through early evening.

..Leitman.. 05/15/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 160732
SWODY3
SPC AC 160731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on
Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the
Intermountain West on Sunday with a leading mid-level shortwave
trough forecast to emerge into the central Plains during the
afternoon and evening. At the surface, a low 990s mb surface low is
forecast to develop in the eastern Colorado/western Kansas vicinity.
A dryline will extend south from this surface low with a warm front
extending east into the Southeast.

...Central/Southern Plains...
Low to mid 70s dewpoints will advect poleward east of a sharpening
dryline across the central Plains Sunday morning/early afternoon.
This, combined with strong heating, will result in strong to very
strong instability across Oklahoma and into southern Kansas with
moderate to strong instability across eastern Kansas. As a mid-level
shortwave trough emerges over the Plains, inhibition will erode
along the dryline with storm development possible during the
afternoon. Deep layer shear will support supercells as the primary
storm mode with potential for large hail. As the low-level jet
strengthens through the day, the low-level hodographs will elongate
and result in an increasing tornado threat, including the potential
for strong tornadoes.

Confidence in storm coverage is highest across Kansas near the
triple point. While some uncertainty remains where the warm
front/dryline intersection will be, it will likely be somewhere near
central Kansas. An enhanced risk (Level 3 out of 5) has been added
across Kansas and into northern Oklahoma where the confidence for
storm coverage is highest. However, it is important to note that
storms could be equally as intense within the slight risk area
across Oklahoma as storm coverage concerns are the only limiting
factor to higher severe weather probabilities at this time.

...Southeast...
Isolated storms will be possible along the frontal zone from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast. Moderate to strong
instability and strong shear will be in place along the frontal
zone. However, forcing should be weak, so storm coverage is
uncertain at this time.

..Bentley.. 05/16/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 161924
SWODY3
SPC AC 161923

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on
Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains.

...Central/Southern Plains...

An upper shortwave impulse will eject east/northeast from the
southern Rockies into the southern/central Plains on Sunday. Only
modest height falls are forecast to occur for much of the period.
Nevertheless, enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread
the region. A lee low is forecast to develop over eastern CO and
spread east into western KS. A surface dryline will extend southward
from southwest KS into western OK and central TX. A warm front
extending west to east along the OK/TX border into southern MO/KY
will lift northward across the Mid-MO/Lower OH Valleys through early
Sunday. A very moist airmass with mid/upper 60s F dewpoints is
expected as far north as northern KS into southern MO. Steep
midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary layer moisture will result
in moderate to strong destabilization.

Confidence in storm coverage is lower than normal as it is unclear
if capping will be overcome, especially with southward extent into
portions of OK/TX. Convection may be more likely to develop near the
surface triple point in central KS, and eventually further north and
east along the warm frontal zone within the warm advection regime.
Where storms can overcome capping, supercells within a favorably
sheared, strongly unstable environment are expected. An accompany
risk for significant all-hazards severe will accompany this
activity.

During the evening and overnight hours, elevated convection is
possible in the warm advection regime as the warm front lifts north
across the central Plains. Elevated storms may pose a risk for hail,
or if clustering occurs, some damaging wind potential may develop
with a zone from the Mid-MO Valley vicinity into central MO.

...Deep South to GA/SC Coast...

Enhanced west/northwest flow aloft will overspread the region on
Sunday. A stalled boundary may modulate northward through the
afternoon, and a very moist and unstable airmass will be in place
amid moderate vertical shear. Large-scale ascent will be weak, but
any storms that develop could become strong/severe.

..Leitman.. 05/16/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 170740
SWODY3
SPC AC 170739

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH
TEXAS...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are likely from
portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move over the central/southern Plains on
Monday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move slowly
east across Kansas and eventually into Missouri. A sharp dryline
will extend from this surface low southward along the I-35 corridor
into north-central Texas. A warm front will extend from this surface
low southeastward into portions of the lower Ohio Valley and into
the Carolinas Monday morning. This front will move slowly north
through the day.

...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest...
Strong to very strong instability will develop across the Plains and
into the Ozarks on Monday as temperatures warm into the 80s with
dewpoints in the low 70s while mid-level temperatures cool ahead of
the approaching mid-level trough. As strengthening mid-level flow
overspreads the warm sector, a favorable environment for intense
supercells will develop with 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 50+ knots of
shear across a broad region. Large to very large hail will be likely
within supercells across eastern Kansas and Oklahoma into northern
Texas. The tornado threat remains potent but more uncertain. The
weakening nature of the surface low and a strengthening low-level
jet during the evening when mode remains less clear are the primary uncertainties at this time. Eventually expect storms to congeal into
one or more MCSs with an increasing severe wind threat.

Additional storms are likely late Monday evening as a cold front
overtakes the dryline across Kansas and eventually into Oklahoma.
Storm intensity during this period remains unclear as it will depend
greatly on remaining instability in the wake of earlier convection.
Regardless, if earlier convection does not materialize as expected,
more robust storms are likely along the cold front. Therefore,
between the likely dryline storms during the afternoon and potential
for storms along the cold front Monday evening, numerous severe
thunderstorms are likely across Kansas and Oklahoma with that threat
continuing eastward into parts of Missouri and Arkansas Monday
evening.

..Bentley.. 05/17/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 171924
SWODY3
SPC AC 171924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with all severe weather hazards remain likely from
portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday.

...Synopsis...
The embedded mid-level impulse (responsible for Day 2 severe) will
approach the Great Lakes region as the primary upper trough ejects
into the Plains states on Monday. Some surface low strengthening is
expected along or just north of the KS/OK border by afternoon,
supporting a sharpening dryline along the I-35 corridor, with a warm
front draped from eastern NE to the OH River. Scattered to
potentially widespread thunderstorm development is likely by mid
afternoon along the warm front and ahead of the dryline. With strong
vertical wind shear and instability in place over the Plains to the
Midwest, severe storms with all convective hazards are likely.
Strong thunderstorms may also develop further east along the warm
front over the TN Valley as well.

...Portions of the central Plains into the Midwest...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of
the period (12Z Monday morning). However, gradual clearing of this precipitation and associated cloud cover should support
destabilization along and south of a warm front during the
afternoon. Boundary layer heating, along with increasing deep-layer
ascent from the approaching upper trough, will encourage the
development of several thunderstorms along the warm front during the
afternoon, from far eastern NE to the MO/IL border. On the warm side
of the front, 70+ F surface dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse
rates will boost MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg amid 50 kts of effective
bulk shear. NAM forecast soundings depict enlarged hodographs as
well. Supercells may develop along the warm front, accompanied by
large hail. Storms that can remain surface based, along or just
south of the warm front, will have the best chance to produce
tornadoes.

...Portions of the central into southern Plains...
Modest to considerable cloud cover, perhaps accompanied by showers,
may overspread parts of the central and southern Plains Monday
morning. Nonetheless, enough clearing should take place ahead of a
sharpening dryline by afternoon to support considerable
destabilization given steep mid-level lapse rates from an EML. The
dryline should be positioned just west of I-35 by mid-afternoon,
with surface dewpoints ahead of the dryline exceeding upper 60s to
70 F, supporting well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE on a widespread basis.
Strong southwesterly mid-level flow overspreading southeasterly
surface flow ahead of the low will result in over 50 kts of
effective bulk shear. By mid afternoon, at least scattered supercell development is expected all along the dryline, from southeast NE to
central OK, with more isolated supercell coverage likely over
northern into central TX. Given ample buoyancy and deep-layer shear,
large hail is expected, with very large hail over 2 inches in
diameter likely with the more dominant supercell structures. By late
afternoon into early evening, the strengthening of the low-level jet
over central and eastern KS/OK will support substantial low-level
veering of the vertical wind profile, with notable low-level
hodograph size/curvature in forecast soundings. As such, the more
dominant, right-moving supercells will have the potential to produce
tornadoes, and at least a few strong tornadoes are possible.

...Portions of the TN Valley...
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible along a residual
baroclinic boundary across the TN Valley, both during the morning
hours, and later in the evening. While not quite as unstable as
points farther to the west, modest mid-level lapse rates amid
elongated hodographs should support multicells, supercells, and
short line segments. The stronger storms may be capable of isolated
instances of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado.

..Squitieri.. 05/17/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 180731
SWODY3
SPC AC 180730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY...AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low will stall and perhaps start to retrograde across
parts of the Upper Midwest on Monday. A surface low in the MO/IL
region will start to occlude during the day. A cold front will move
east through the period with a warm front across the Ohio Valley.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and Tennessee
Valley...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing amid broad isentropic ascent
and moderate elevated instability along the warm front in southern
Illinois and Indiana and vicinity on Monday morning. South of this
morning activity, where upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are
anticipated, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop
amid daytime heating. As 55 to 65 knots of mid-level flow
overspreads the warm sector, strong shear will be present for
supercells. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat
initially, as low-level flow will likely be veered. However,
low-level shear should be strong enough to support some tornado
threat during the afternoon/evening. As storms grow upscale, one or
more bowing segments may develop with an increased damaging wind
threat during the evening and perhaps persisting into the overnight
period.

..Bentley.. 05/18/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 181928
SWODY3
SPC AC 181927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Monday.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys...

A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on
Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very
moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across
IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F
dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped
across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold
front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the
Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS
Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the
cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized
convection capable of all severe hazards.

Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the
vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN
and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will
influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the
afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does
not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe
probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent
outlooks.

Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the
cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity
will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With
time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more
bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will
occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of
significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity.

...NC Vicinity...

A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during
the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to
spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering,
supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg
MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few
strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as
modest height falls overspread the region.

..Leitman.. 05/18/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 181937
SWODY3
SPC AC 181936

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...

CORRECTED FOR DAY OF WEEK REFERENCE

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys...

A shortwave upper trough will develop east across the region on
Tuesday, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow atop a very
moist airmass. A surface low over northern MO will shift east across
IL/IN and into OH by Wednesday morning. Mid-60s to low 70s F
dewpoints will be in place to the south of a warm front draped
across central IL/IN into northern KY by midday. A trailing cold
front will shift east/southeast across the Ozarks toward the
Mid-South during the afternoon, and across the TN and Lower MS
Valley overnight. Moderate to strong destabilization ahead of the
cold front and strong vertical shear will support organized
convection capable of all severe hazards.

Guidance varies, but convection will likely be ongoing in the
vicinity of the warm front Tuesday morning from parts of IL into IN
and perhaps KY. The exact location and extent of this activity will
influence severe potential across the Ohio Valley during the
afternoon. There is some potential that if morning convection does
not dilute the favorable airmass across KY that higher severe
probabilities may need to be extended northward in subsequent
outlooks.

Otherwise, initial supercells are expected to develop ahead of the
cold front across the Mid-South during the afternoon. This activity
will pose a risk for large hail, strong gusts and tornadoes. With
time, convection is expected to develop upscale into one or more
bowing segments while shifting east across the TN Valley into the evening/overnight hours. An increasing risk for damaging winds will
occur with upscale development and some potential for a swath of
significant gusts is possible across the TN Valley vicinity.

...NC Vicinity...

A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the region during
the day, allowing for a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture to
spread across parts of SC/NC/western VA. Vertically veering,
supercell wind profiles along this boundary, and MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg
MLCAPE is evident in forecast soundings. This could support a few
strong to severe storms during the late afternoon or evening as
modest height falls overspread the region.

..Leitman.. 05/18/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 190731
SWODY3
SPC AC 190730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST TO
THE FL/GA BORDER...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast
Virginia, eastern North Carolina, and along the Atlantic coast to
near the Florida/Georgia border.

...Discussion...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period,
Wednesday, along a frontal zone from the Mid-Atlantic to the Florida
Panhandle. Aloft, an elongated jet streak will overspread areas from
Virginia to northern Florida. A very moist, mostly uncapped airmass
will be in place east of the cold front with a 60-70 knot mid-level
jet streak overspreading the warm sector. Therefore, some strong to
severe storms are possible along the front before it moves into the
Atlantic at some point Wednesday afternoon. Damaging wind gusts (and
perhaps a tornado) are anticipated. The location with the greatest
potential for greater severe coverage will likely be across eastern
North Carolina and southeast Virginia. However, given the proximity
to the coast and a relatively narrow window of favorable conditions,
no slight risk has been introduced.

Elsewhere, thunderstorm activity is possible along a cold frontal
zone from MS/AL to southern Texas. However, forcing will be quite
weak and therefore, any development should remain mostly isolated.

..Bentley.. 05/19/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 191927
SWODY3
SPC AC 191926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms are possible Wednesday mainly across
parts of North Carolina and nearby parts of southern Virginia and/or
eastern South Carolina.

...Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States...
Within the base of the Great Lakes-centered upper trough, strong
westerlies aloft will exist over the Carolinas, central/southern
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday. Scattered
thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the morning, potentially
complexifying the details of where the north/south extent of
most-favorable severe storm ingredients will materialize. However, severe-weather potential currently seems most likely to set up
across North Carolina and possibly southern Virginia in vicinity of
the warm front and a weak surface wave. A semi-focused corridor of supercell/severe-storm potential could materialize with
hail/damaging wind and tornado potential. Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities are plausible into the Day 2 or Day 1 time frame as
forecast details are refined.

Other more isolated severe storms may occur through the afternoon
with southwestward extent along the southeastward-advancing cold
front into southeast Georgia and northern Florida, where moderate
buoyancy is expected coincident with the southern edge of stronger
westerlies aloft.

..Guyer.. 05/19/2025

$$

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