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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0368

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 3 02:47:09 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 030247
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 030246=20
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-030415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0368
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0946 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

    Areas affected...Eastern Indiana into western Ohio

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 103...

    Valid 030246Z - 030415Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 103 continues.

    SUMMARY...An organized MCS capable of producing swaths of severe
    wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will continue tracking eastward
    across eastern Indiana into western Ohio.

    DISCUSSION...A NNE/SSW-oriented MCS (with embedded supercells) is
    tracking eastward across eastern IN into western OH -- with the
    northern portion of the line moving at 60 kt and southern part at 45
    kt. This system has a history of producing destructive wind gusts
    and embedded tornadoes. Ahead of these storms, the ILN VWP is
    sampling an 80-kt low-level jet (at 2 km AGL), which combined with moist/unstable inflow (lower/middle 60s dewpoints -- higher farther
    south), should support its maintenance with eastward extent
    (especially the southern portion of the line where instability is
    greater). The primary concern with this activity continues to be
    swaths of severe wind gusts (generally 70-80 mph) and embedded
    tornadoes, given around 60 kt of 0-1 km shear/550 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH
    (per ILN VWP). With a west-southwesterly deep-layer shear vector,
    any NNW/SSE-oriented portions of the line will pose the greatest
    risk of severe wind and tornadoes.

    ..Weinman.. 04/03/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Oo_PQUL3mmdv4axXMXj5jzP4GAqXOkEFUzfNGT4gxYqpgyPwXBtPp9Hp-svnqsbSZjOPNoWV= XiWmnzwAwoAlIoRuuc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

    LAT...LON 39348417 39008469 38868540 38778609 38868637 39098637
    40218541 40468526 40858503 40938436 40868401 40708367
    40228364 39818379 39348417=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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