ACUS11 KWNS 022236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022235=20 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-030030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0360
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Areas affected...parts of sern MO...srn IL...sern IN...swrn KY...wrn
TN...nrn through swrn AR and adjacent ne TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 98...

Valid 022235Z - 030030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 98 continues.

SUMMARY...A couple of long-lived supercells posing the risk of
producing strong tornadoes appear possible across northwestern
Louisiana and southern/eastern Arkansas through 7-9 PM CDT.=20
Otherwise, potential for damaging wind gusts and brief tornadoes may
slowly increase with a slowly east-southeastward advancing squall
line.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has become extensive within a
pre-frontal confluent zone, from the Ark-La-Tex into southern
Illinois. Outflow has generated an elongated surface cold pool,
which remains largely parallel to the 50-60 kt southwesterly
deep-layer mean flow. It appears that this includes a 60+ kt 850 mb
jet core, which is forecast to continue to nose across the Mid South
between the Greater Memphis area and southwestern Kentucky through
early evening.

Gradually, with further strengthening of the surface cold pool,=20 north-northeastward surging segments of the associated cold front
may become better defined, with radar reflectivities taking on more
organized line echo wave structures. Developing embedded meso
vortices may be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging
surface gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes.=20=20

Otherwise, isolated, discrete thunderstorm development is ongoing
within a corridor of surface pressure falls (near 2 mb 2-hourly)
within the pre-frontal surface trough across northern Louisiana
through eastern Arkansas. Embedded within a seasonably moist
boundary layer, characterized by moderately large CAPE, and an
environment with large, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, a
couple of long-lived supercells with potential to produce strong
tornadoes appears possible into the 00-02Z time frame.

..Kerr.. 04/02/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6YYB-2kWjTn5OymoSYpO-XLpTWRb12Y26THRJwXpg6bcRMVXDY2R3zjg7fTIKeZFVx2qBlI5t= y9dq55KQdsTeBI7lAM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 33839343 35599160 36169111 36409073 36879011 37858916
38348886 38428791 37978753 36868873 35328994 33839106
32829201 32289336 32259407 32639419 33339413 33839343=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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